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Queensland has joined Tasmania as the second Australian state or territory to offer a A$500 rebate for buyers of new e‑bikes. The pre-election announcement includes a smaller $200 rebate for e‑scooters.

The Queensland e‑mobility rebate scheme is first come, first served, until its $2 million budget ($1 million was added last week) is used up. The Tasmanian scheme has closed for this reason.

These schemes follow a trend of government incentives to buy e‑bikes in North America and Europe. The Australian schemes differ from most schemes overseas by including e‑scooters too.

It’s a welcome move to promote sustainable transport. These personal transport devices have smaller environmental footprints to produce and operate than electric cars. Owning e‑bikes or e‑scooters can enable people to drive less – reducing congestion and emissions – and avoid high fuel costs.

However, my research and other studies suggest ownership doesn’t guarantee much greater use. Additional measures will be needed to boost use of these sustainable transport modes.

Why own e-bikes or e-scooters when you can share?

The rebate is likely to boost retailers’ sales. More than 860 rebate applications were received within three days of the scheme starting on September 23.

And existing owners now have an incentive to upgrade or replace models. They might then sell their pre-loved e‑bikes or e‑scooters on the second-hand market. This means others could get them more cheaply.

Queensland was the first Australian state to legalise the use of e‑scooters in 2018, when Brisbane introduced shared e‑scooter operations. Regional cities such as Townsville and Cairns launched similar schemes. Dockless e‑bikes later replaced Brisbane’s initial CityCycle bike-sharing scheme.

I recently conducted research to understand why South-East Queensland residents want to own e‑scooters. The study methods were comparable to an earlier e‑bike user survey.

Both sets of owners cite replacing car use as their top reason for ownership. However, their motivations differ.

E‑scooter owners are mainly driven by the lower price and the fun factor of riding. E‑bike owners focus more on fitness and the health benefits of getting some exercise when riding. Australian regulations require e‑bikes to be pedal-assisted.

But does this mean people will ride more?

Since 2022, the Queensland government has offered a rebate of up to $6,000 for buying full-sized electric vehicles (that scheme closed last month). It now appears to have responded to calls to do the same for e‑bikes and e‑scooters.

Buyers certainly won’t mind freebies and rebates, but rebate-induced ownership might not increase overall use by much.

An Australia-wide survey in 2023 found 57% of respondents had access to at least one working bicycle at home and this proportion has been increasing. However, only 15% reported riding in the previous week. Only 36.7% had ridden in the past year.

Overall cycling participation has declined over the past decade, except during the COVID pandemic when work and travel patterns were more local. For all periods, men are significantly more likely to cycle than women.

The same 2023 survey revealed only about 2.1% own e‑bikes. The rebate will likely increase this rate in Queensland.

Some preliminary evidence suggests e‑bike users ride more often and further than those riding non-electric bikes. It also helps older people get into cycling. And it has the potential to replace car use even in rural areas.

Despite e‑bikes offering advantages over traditional bikes, riders of both face obstacles to greater use, such as road safety and poor cycling infrastructure.

What kinds of incentives do other countries offer?

Australian policymakers should consider offering incentives to ensure the new purchases are well used, not sitting idle most of the time.

The United Kingdom has a long-standing cycle-to-work scheme that offers commuters a tax exemption for buying bicycles or e‑bikes.

In the Netherlands, incentive schemes have used smartphone technology to track their mileage. For example, in the B-Riders scheme, riders earn €0.08–0.15 (A$0.13–0.21) per kilometre. There was a 68% increase in e‑bike use by former car commuters after one month and 73% increase after six months of participation.

Schemes in North America tend to be aimed at lower-income households. They are more likely to be involuntarily carless, so e‑bikes can improve their access to jobs, goods and services.

There are alternatives to rebates. North Vancouver, for example, is trialling e‑cargo bike lending to replace car shopping trips, as these bulky bikes are not practical for every household to own.

In France, residents can claim a bike or e‑bike subsidy of up to €2,000 (A$3,210). Second-hand devices sold by approved repairers are covered too, which is likely to help reduce e‑waste. Australian schemes so far only cover new purchases.

What more can be done?

For e‑bike and e‑scooter owners, the main barrier to riding more is the lack of safe and well-connected infrastructure. Numerous studies have connected rates of riding to the quality and quantity of infrastructure. Extensive, high-quality and safe cycling networks can deliver lasting shifts towards sustainable transport.

When the Spanish city of Seville built such networks, cycling rates surged 11-fold in a few years.

In the Netherlands, this infrastructure is so well-funded and extensive that it’s no surprise cycling is popular there.

Riders don’t just need bikeways. They also need end-of-trip facilities with secure parking (and maybe free charging too).

In Australia, cycling gets only around 2% of transport funding.

In Brisbane, despite not being anywhere close to the European level of cycling infrastructure, new “green bridges” and bikeways will be expanded to more areas of the city (and other Queensland venues). It’s part of preparations to host “climate-positive” Olympic and Paralympic Games in 2032. This year’s games host, Paris, successfully upgraded infrastructure and boosted cycling rates.

Another benefit of more riders on the streets is that it creates “safety in numbers”. Greater numbers would also help attract more funding for infrastructure that makes cycling and scooting safer and more attractive.

Both e‑bikes and e‑scooters are already worthwhile investments. Using them often would free yourself from car dependence – and that’s good for the planet and your wallet. Läs mer…

Global life expectancy has increased dramatically over the past century, with Australia among the best performing countries.

But during the last two decades, some high-income countries have reported stagnation or even declining life expectancy, particularly the United States and the United Kingdom.

Could this indicate a broader decline in health advancements in English-speaking countries? Our new study compared life expectancy between English-speaking countries and against other high-income countries.

We found Australians born between 1930 and 1969 continue to do exceptionally well for life expectancy. But the picture for those under 50 is not so rosy – life expectancy is stagnating for that younger group.

Why measure life expectancy?

Life expectancy is a valuable and widely used measure to examine health trends and patterns over time and compare different places or population groups.

It estimates the average number of years a person would be expected to live. This is calculated using the mortality – or death rates – across different age groups within a specific period. When death rates fall, life expectancy rises, and vice versa.

Life expectancy can tell a story about a population’s overall health.
Christian Wiediger/Shutterstock

Not only does life expectancy tell us about mortality in a population, it is indirectly a measure of overall population health. Most leading causes of death in high-income countries are chronic diseases. These typically affect the health of a person for multiple years before their death.

Stagnations or reversals in life expectancy can be warning signs of both longstanding and emerging health problems.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Amartya Sen has also pointed to mortality as a key indicator of economic success and failure. This makes it a powerful tool for researchers and policymakers.

Thanks to a long and largely standardised tradition of collecting mortality statistics across high-income countries, researchers are able to carry out in-depth, comparative studies. This can help uncover how specific causes of death have contributed to the changes in life expectancy.

What we did

In our study, we analysed mortality trends and patterns in a broader group of English-speaking countries and compared them with other high-income countries. English-speaking countries have shown similarities in recent mortality trends and their causes, such as patterns of drug overdose and obesity prevalence.

Our analysis focuses on six high-income English-speaking countries: Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the UK and US. We compared them with the average in 14 other high-income, low-mortality countries from Western Europe (such as France and Norway), plus Japan. This was the “comparison group”.

We used data from 1970 onwards from well-established, comprehensive sources of high-quality mortality data: the Human Mortality Database and World Health Organization Mortality Database.

For each English-speaking country and the comparison group, we estimated:

life expectancy at birth
partial life expectancy between ages 0 and 50 years
remaining life expectancy at age 50
average length of life.

Looking at average length of life helps to compare the mortality of the birth cohorts (people born in the same calendar year) as they age. This measure is the closest way to estimate how long people in different populations actually live, and can be used to assess the differences in survival between populations.

First we looked at how age and causes of death were contributing to a gap between English-speaking countries and the comparison group. Then we compared the average length of life of different birth cohorts.

What we found

In the pre-COVID period, both men and women in Australia had a higher life expectancy at birth, compared to the non-English speaking comparison group (the average between those 14 countries). This was also true for men in Ireland, New Zealand and Canada. In the UK and US, however, life expectancy at birth was lower for both men and women, compared to the non-English speaking group.

But the most striking finding was the difference in mortality for those under 50 in English-speaking versus non-English speaking countries.

Relatively high death rates for those under 50 dragged the overall life expectancy at birth down for each English-speaking country, including Australia. Suicides and drug or alcohol-related deaths were the main reason for these trends.

But over age 50, Australia performs exceptionally well in life expectancy for both men and women. Australians born in the 1930s-60s are likely to live longer than those in the non-English speaking comparison group and all other English-speaking countries. But Australians born in the 1970s onwards had lower life expectancy than the comparison group.

This means overall, life expectancy at birth in Australia is higher than the average for the non-English group. But when you break it down by age, the results show a clear distinction in life expectancy according to when you were born.

For example, in 2017-19 , male life expectancy between ages 0 and 50 years was 0.3 years lower in Australia compared to the average for the non-English group, while remaining life expectancy at age 50 was 1.45 years higher.

What this means

Our study shows a worrying trend for people born from the 1970s onwards. This is true in all English-speaking countries, even before accounting for the negative impacts of the COVID pandemic in places like the UK and US.

In Australia, the results point to significant generational differences in life expectancy compared to other high-income countries. If the relatively high mortality rates of Australians born from the 1970s onwards continue into the future, then the gains in Australian life expectancy will likely slow. Our status as having one of the highest life expectancies of any country will diminish.

Our research aimed to examine trends and potential causes of stagnating life expectancy, rather than make policy recommendations.

But the results suggest real improvement could come through measures that reduce inequality and structural disadvantages that lead to poor health outcomes, such as improving access to education and security of employment and housing, supporting mental health and drug-related safety, and addressing diseases like obesity and diabetes. Läs mer…

The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) has brought both benefits and risk.

One concerning trend is the misuse of voice cloning. In seconds, scammers can clone a voice and trick people into thinking a friend or a family member urgently needs money.

News outlets, including CNN, warn these types of scams have the potential to impact millions of people.

As technology makes it easier for criminals to invade our personal spaces, staying cautious about its use is more important than ever.

What is voice cloning?

The rise of AI has created possibilities for image, text, voice generation and machine learning.

While AI offers many benefits, it also provides fraudsters new methods to exploit individuals for money.

You may have heard of “deepfakes,” where AI is used to create fake images, videos and even audio, often involving celebrities or politicians.

Voice cloning, a type of deepfake technology, creates a digital replica of a person’s voice by capturing their speech patterns, accent and breathing from brief audio samples.

Once the speech pattern is captured, an AI voice generator can convert text input into highly realistic speech resembling the targeted person’s voice.

With advancing technology, voice cloning can be accomplished with just a three-second audio sample.

While a simple phrase like “hello, is anyone there?” can lead to a voice cloning scam, a longer conversation helps scammers capture more vocal details. It is therefore best to keep calls brief until you are sure of the caller’s identity.

Voice cloning has valuable applications in entertainment and health care – enabling remote voice work for artists (even posthumously) and assisting people with speech disabilities.

However, it raises serious privacy and security concerns, underscoring the need for safeguards.

How it’s being exploited by criminals

Cybercriminals exploit voice cloning technology to impersonate celebrities, authorities or ordinary people for fraud.

They create urgency, gain the victim’s trust and request money via gift cards, wire transfers or cryptocurrency.

The process begins by collecting audio samples from sources like YouTube and TikTok.

Next, the technology analyses the audio to generate new recordings.

Once the voice is cloned, it can be used in deceptive communications, often accompanied by spoofing Caller ID to appear trustworthy.

Many voice cloning scam cases have made headlines.

For example, criminals cloned the voice of a company director in the United Arab Emirates to orchestrate a $A51 million heist.

A businessman in Mumbai fell victim to a voice cloning scam involving a fake call from the Indian Embassy in Dubai.

In Australia recently, scammers employed a voice clone of Queensland Premier Steven Miles to attempt to trick people to invest in Bitcoin.

Teenagers and children are also targeted. In a kidnapping scam in the United States, a teenager’s voice was cloned and her parents manipulated into complying with demands.

It only takes a few seconds of audio for AI to clone someone’s voice.

How widespread is it?

Recent research shows 28% of adults in the United Kingdom faced voice cloning scams last year, with 46% unaware of the existence of this type of scam.

It highlights a significant knowledge gap, leaving millions at risk of fraud.

In 2022, almost 240,000 Australians reported being victims of voice cloning scams, leading to a financial loss of $A568 million.

How people and organisations can safeguard against it

The risks posed by voice cloning require a multidisciplinary response.

People and organisations can implement several measures to safeguard against the misuse of voice cloning technology.

First, public awareness campaigns and education can help protect people and organisations and mitigate these types of fraud.

Public-private collaboration can provide clear information and consent options for voice cloning.

Second, people and organisations should look to use biometric security with liveness detection, which is new technology that can recognise and verify a live voice as opposed to a fake. And organisations using voice recognition should consider adopting multi-factor authentication.

Third, enhancing investigative capability against voice cloning is another crucial measure for law enforcement.

Finally, accurate and updated regulations for countries are needed for managing associated risks.

Australian law enforcement recognises the potential benefits of AI.

Yet, concerns about the “dark side” of this technology have prompted calls for research into the criminal use of “artificial intelligence for victim targeting.”

There are also calls for possible intervention strategies that law enforcement could use to combat this problem.

Such efforts should connect with the overall National Plan to Combat Cybercrime, which focuses on proactive, reactive and restorative strategies.

That national plan stipulates a duty of care for service providers, reflected in the Australian government’s new legislation to safeguard the public and small businesses.

The legislation aims for new obligations to prevent, detect, report and disrupt scams.

This will apply to regulated organisations such as telcos, banks and digital platform providers. The goal is to protect customers by preventing, detecting, reporting, and disrupting cyber scams involving deception.

Reducing the risk

As cybercrime costs the Australian economy an estimated A$42 billion, public awareness and strong safeguards are essential.

Countries like Australia are recognising the growing risk. The effectiveness of measures against voice cloning and other frauds depends on their adaptability, cost, feasibility and regulatory compliance.

All stakeholders — government, citizens, and law enforcement — must stay vigilant and raise public awareness to reduce the risk of victimisation. Läs mer…

The volunteers who take part in search-and-rescue operations and then support disaster survivors belong to organizations that have become more formal and established over the past decade. That’s what we found after spending more than four years volunteering alongside eight of these groups to better understand their role and the motivations of the people who participate in these efforts.

We did this research as part of a larger team of sociologists, an urban planning scholar and emergency management specialists. All of us worked alongside civilian volunteer search-and-rescue groups from Louisiana and Texas between 2017 and 2022 during and after many hurricanes, including Harvey and Laura, the winter storm known as Uri and other major disasters.

While we volunteered with these organizations, we observed them in action and interviewed their leaders and volunteers to learn why they were making the time and taking personal risks to save others. Many cited their personal values, expressed their need to belong to a group, and said it had helped them find a sense of purpose. Others shared that they were motivated by their personal circumstances and experiences or feelings of guilt, or that this kind of volunteering gave them a deep sense of satisfaction.

“I lost everything I owned in Katrina. They deemed my family’s property uninhabitable,” said a boater we’ll call Dylan to protect his anonymity. “I can’t sit here after knowing what it is to lose everything.”

Some volunteers said that one reason why they have repeatedly done this work is to counter stereotypes about people who engage in these efforts. When he’s heard people say, “Oh you’re just out there, doing it for the spotlight,” said Roger, he told us he wants to respond by saying, “Yeah, dude. If you flood, call me, I’ll come get you.”

While the organizations we researched were based in Louisiana and Texas, the volunteers who participate in these efforts come from across the U.S. and, in some cases, other countries. One volunteer we met was from the United Kingdom.

After Hurricane Helene destroyed roads in western North Carolina, rescue squads delivered aid by donkey and helicopter.

Why it matters

Since Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast in 2005, volunteers have been participating in search-and-rescue efforts after big disasters – especially in that region. But these volunteers come from all over.

Many of these groups are known as “Cajun Navy” organizations. Whether or not these organizations use the Cajun Navy branding in their names they share, a common mission of helping others in emergencies.

These volunteers aren’t just operating boats and helicopters. Others serve as dispatchers, handle logistics, and run social media operations.

Over time, some of the organizations have begun to team up with local emergency responders, signing memorandums of understanding with them. They partner with government agencies while assisting in disaster response and relief efforts, but they primarily operate with autonomy and are able to travel where they perceive the need is greatest.

This kind of group tends to dissolve after a disaster is over, instead of evolving into an established nonprofit.

But many of the eight groups we studied have become nonprofits or are in the process of doing so.

How we do our work

We were able to do this research by becoming volunteers ourselves. We took part in dispatch operations on the ground and remotely, and we supported logistics planning. We also observed and, in some cases, participated in search-and-rescue training and operations in the water and on land.

The Research Brief is a short take about interesting academic work. Läs mer…

How would you like to never have another electric bill? Advances in technology have made it possible for some consumers to disconnect from the power grid — a move that was once only available to the ultra-wealthy who could afford the associated costs, or survivalists willing to trade convenience for freedom. This is no longer the case.

A recent study I coauthored with energy researcher Seyyed Ali Sadat reveals that the balance of economics has shifted and now many families may be better off financially by cutting ties to the grid. However, this might not be a good thing for everyone.

How did we get here?

Back in the 2000s, solar was costly. The solar industry’s goal was to push the cost of solar panels below $3 per watt because that would produce solar electricity at a low enough cost to be economically competitive without subsidies. Over the year, the cost of solar plummeted.

By 2011, we showed for the first time in both the United States and Canada that the levelized cost of solar electricity had reached grid parity. This means people could have a net-metered, grid-connected solar system and pay the same for electricity as the grid costs.

Your utility meter would spin backward during the day as you amassed solar electric credits, then spin forward at night when you used grid electricity. If you sized your solar correctly, you would never pay an electric bill.

Behind-the-meter rooftop solar system, a solar array on the roof produces direct current power when the sun is shining. The DC power runs through an inverter that converts it to alternating current (AC) electricity. In most systems, the AC power goes straight to the main utility breaker panel, providing power to the home. Extra solar energy is fed onto the grid.
(National Academies)

When I moved to Michigan in 2011, I installed solar, earning a return on investment of more than 10 per cent. Many other faculty members at Michigan Tech did the same, and our area was the first to hit Michigan’s arbitrarily mandated one per cent distributed generation limit.

Solar costs kept dropping, and ten years later, I collaborated with an engineer from Sweden — where nearly every house has a heat pump — to show that solar costs were so low they could effectively subsidize heat pumps into profitability in both northern Michigan and Ontario. Although the return on investment was modest — only a few per cent — it was enough to make solar-powered heating more viable than natural gas.

Concern among electric utilities

Today, more heat pumps are sold that normal furnaces in the U.S., but Canada is still warming up to them. The price of solar modules has since dropped well below $1 per watt.

This shift caused concern among some electric companies; under their traditional business models, every new solar customer reduces their profit. Forward-thinking companies embraced solar and funded it for their customers. Some even rented their customers’ roofs for solar panel use.

Grid defection is becoming economically advantageous for many families.
(Shutterstock)

Many electric companies, however, took a different path by trying to weaken net metering. Some manipulated the rate structure by increasing unavoidable charges for customers while decreasing the electric rate, making net-metered solar systems less appealing for customers. As off-grid systems are now more affordable, this strategy could push customers away.

Solar costs continued to drop and are now the lowest cost power in history. The costs of electric batteries also plummeted by over 50 per cent just last year.

Grid defection is a real option

Grid-tied residential solar systems currently dominate the market, primarily due to historical net metering. As utility rate structures shift away from real net metering, increase unavoidable fees or restrict grid access, solar consumers are finding that going off-grid is becoming more economically viable.

Our recent study shows that grid defection is economically advantageous for many families because of these rate structure changes.

Consider a typical family in San Diego, for example. After an initial investment of $20,000 on the off-grid system (solar, diesel generator and batteries), they could pay 45 per cent less for electricity than if they remained connected to the grid.

The system would pay for itself in just six years, and even with a battery replacement, they would break even again in year eight. Over the lifespan of the system, these families could save over $40,000 in electricity costs.

The cash flow of off-grid projects in San Diego, Calif. The various colour bars show either cash in or out by the year and the black line shows the total money each year until lifetime savings in year 25.
(Sadat and Pearce, 2024).

Since our analysis using data from one year ago, battery costs have dropped even further, increasing the return on investment. Locations that were previously on the borderline of economic viability are now clear opportunities for grid defection.

These trends, coupled with increasing grid electricity costs and decreases in both solar and battery costs, have made economic grid defection a salient issue.

But this also raises concerns about potential “utility death spirals,” where as more customers leave the grid to save money, the ones who are left face higher electricity costs, prompting even more to leave until the utility is bankrupt.

Stay on the grid

This trend raises two major concerns. First, those who can’t afford to leave the grid — often the poorest households — will end up paying the most for left-over fossil fuel electricity from the grid. Leaving the grid requires a hefty up-front cost, and not everyone can afford it.

Second, our research shows that the diesel generators used as back up for off-grid solar and battery systems will cause significant pollution — even more than the grid in some locations.

Our results show that regulators must consider mass economic grid defection of PV-diesel generator-battery systems as a very real possibility in the near future. To prevent utility death spirals and increased carbon emissions, it’s imperative we have rate structures that encourage solar producers to remain on the grid.

The worst thing regulators can do is allow the electric utilities to increase unavoidable costs for their short-term profits. This can backfire, as utilities will lose customers entirely in the long run. With solar and battery costs continuing to decline, this problem is only becoming more urgent. Läs mer…

Moral values are the principles that guide a person’s perceptions of good and bad, and right and wrong. They shape our prejudices, political ideologies and many other consequential attitudes and actions.

It’s tempting to assume that a person’s moral values are stable across time and circumstances, and to some extent they are — but not entirely. Moral values are malleable and can sometimes change depending on the specific thoughts, feelings and motivations that arise in different situations.

Our research examined whether moral values might change with the seasons, too.

Changing values

Seasons are characterized not just by changes in the weather, but also by many additional changes in our surroundings and the rhythms of our lives. These may include spring cleaning, spending more time with family in summer, back-to-school shopping in the autumn or preparing for winter holidays.

Consequently, changes in the seasons lead to changes in the things that people think, feel and do. Most people know that seasonal changes in the weather have effects on people’s moods, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Psychological research has revealed seasonal effects on attention and memory, generosity, colour preferences and many other things.

Research shows that colour preferences can change with the season.
(Shutterstock)

And so, in our recent research, we investigated whether there might also be seasonal cycles in the moral values that people endorse.

We examined five core principles that previous research has identified as fundamental moral values. Two of these principles — don’t hurt other people and treat all people fairly — pertain to individual rights and are referred to as “individualizing” values.

Three other principles — be loyal to one’s group, respect authority and maintain group traditions — promote group cohesion and are referred to as “binding” values.

Most people endorse all these values, but people differ in the extent to which they prioritize them, and these priorities have important implications. People who prioritize individualizing values are more politically liberal, whereas people who prioritize binding values are more conservative, more punitive and express stronger prejudices against out-groups.

Seasonal cycles

Do the seasons affect the extent to which people endorse these core moral values? To find out, we obtained data from YourMorals, a research website that uses online survey methods to assess people’s self-reported endorsement of all five of these core moral values.

Our analyses focused on the values reported by 232,975 respondents in the United States across a decade (2011-20) of data. The results revealed no apparent seasonal cycle in Americans’ endorsement of individualizing values, but there was clear and consistent seasonal cycle in Americans’ endorsement of all three binding moral values.

This seasonal cycle was bimodal, with two peaks and two valleys each year: Americans endorsed binding moral values (valuing loyalty, authority and group traditions) most strongly in the spring and autumn, and least strongly in midsummer and midwinter. This bimodal seasonal cycle in binding moral values showed up again and again in the data, year after year.

A graph depicting Americans’ endorsement of binding and individualizing moral values.
(I. Hohm and M. Schaller), CC BY

This seasonal cycle in binding moral values wasn’t unique to the U.S. either. Additional analyses on data from Canada and Australia revealed similar patterns: Canadians and Australians also endorsed binding moral values most strongly in the spring and autumn, and least strongly in midsummer and midwinter.

Anxiety patterns

What might explain this seasonal cycle in people’s endorsement of binding moral values? One possibility is that it has something to do with the perception of threat, which encourages people to close ranks within a group. Previous research has linked this to increased endorsement of binding moral values.

To test this idea, we analyzed data on an emotion associated with threat perception: anxiety. Results revealed that Americans’ self-reported anxiety showed the same bimodal seasonal cycle, and so did 10 years of data on Americans’ Google searches for anxiety-related words. This seasonal cycle in anxiety helps to explain the seasonal cycle in binding values.

Anxiety tends to change with the seasons, decreasing in summer and midwinter.
(Shutterstock)

This explanation raises a new question: what might explain the seasonal cycle in anxiety? Although we can only speculate, our analyses on moral values revealed an intriguing clue. The summertime dip in Americans’ endorsement of binding moral values was bigger in places with more extreme seasonal changes in the temperature. There was no such effect on the size of the midwinter dip.

Perhaps something similar might be going on with anxiety: maybe that summertime decrease is the result of pleasant weather, whereas the midwinter decrease is more of a holiday effect.

Double-edged sword

Regardless of the cause, seasonal cycles in binding moral values could have consequences that affect people’s lives, for better or worse. Binding moral values promote cohesion, conformity and co-operation within groups, which can be beneficial, especially when coping with crises.

The implication is that groups might cope better with crises that emerge in the spring and autumn, compared to those that occur in the summer and winter.

But binding moral values also promote distrust of people who fail to adhere to group norms and traditions. The implication is that there may also be seasonal cycles in prejudices against immigrants, racial minorities, LGBTQ+ individuals and anybody else who is perceived to be different.

People who more strongly endorse binding moral values are also more punitive, so there could be seasonal effects on judicial decision-making in the millions of legal cases that occur every year.

And given the link between binding moral values and conservative attitudes, there are potential implications for politics. One intriguing possibility: the timing of political elections (whether they are scheduled for summer or autumn, for instance) might have some subtle effect on some votes — which, for an election that is especially tight, might even influence its outcome. Läs mer…

The 2024 Nobel Prize in chemistry recognized Demis Hassabis, John Jumper and David Baker for using machine learning to tackle one of biology’s biggest challenges: predicting the 3D shape of proteins and designing them from scratch.

This year’s award stood out because it honored research that originated at a tech company: DeepMind, an AI research startup that was acquired by Google in 2014. Most previous chemistry Nobel Prizes have gone to researchers in academia. Many laureates went on to form startup companies to further expand and commercialize their groundbreaking work – for instance, CRISPR gene-editing technology and quantum dots – but the research, from start to end, wasn’t done in the commercial sphere.

Although the Nobel Prizes in physics and chemistry are awarded separately, there is a fascinating connection between the winning research in those fields in 2024. The physics award went to two computer scientists who laid the foundations for machine learning, while the chemistry laureates were rewarded for their use of machine learning to tackle one of biology’s biggest mysteries: how proteins fold.

The 2024 Nobel Prizes underscore both the importance of this kind of artificial intelligence and how science today often crosses traditional boundaries, blending different fields to achieve groundbreaking results.

The challenge of protein folding

Proteins are the molecular machines of life. They make up a significant portion of our bodies, including muscles, enzymes, hormones, blood, hair and cartilage.

Proteins are chains of amino acid molecules that form a 3D shape based on their atoms’ interactions.
©Johan Jarnestad/The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

Understanding proteins’ structures is essential because their shapes determine their functions. Back in 1972, Christian Anfinsen won the Nobel Prize in chemistry for showing that the sequence of a protein’s amino acid building blocks dictates the protein’s shape, which, in turn, influences its function. If a protein folds incorrectly, it may not work properly and could lead to diseases such as Alzheimer’s, cystic fibrosis or diabetes.

A protein’s overall shape depends on the tiny interactions, the attractions and repulsions, between all the atoms in the amino acids its made of. Some want to be together, some don’t. The protein twists and folds itself into a final shape based on many thousands of these chemical interactions.

For decades, one of biology’s greatest challenges was predicting a protein’s shape based solely on its amino acid sequence. Although researchers can now predict the shape, we still don’t understand how the proteins maneuver into their specific shapes and minimize the repulsions of all the interatomic interactions in a few microseconds.

To understand how proteins work and to prevent misfolding, scientists needed a way to predict the way proteins fold, but solving this puzzle was no easy task.

In 2003, University of Washington biochemist David Baker wrote Rosetta, a computer program for designing proteins. With it he showed it was possible to reverse the protein-folding problem by designing a protein shape and then predicting the amino acid sequence needed to create it.

It was a phenomenal jump forward, but the shape chosen for the calculation was simple, and the calculations were complex. A major paradigm shift was required to routinely design novel proteins with desired structures.

A new era of machine learning

Machine learning is a type of AI where computers learn to solve problems by analyzing vast amounts of data. It’s been used in various fields, from game-playing and speech recognition to autonomous vehicles and scientific research. The idea behind machine learning is to use hidden patterns in data to answer complex questions.

This approach made a huge leap in 2010 when Demis Hassabis co-founded DeepMind, a company aiming to combine neuroscience with AI to solve real-world problems.

Hassabis, a chess prodigy at age 4, quickly made headlines with AlphaZero, an AI that taught itself to play chess at a superhuman level. In 2017, AlphaZero thoroughly beat the world’s top computer chess program, Stockfish-8. The AI’s ability to learn from its own gameplay, rather than relying on preprogrammed strategies, marked a turning point in the AI world.

Soon after, DeepMind applied similar techniques to Go, an ancient board game known for its immense complexity. In 2016, its AI program AlphaGo defeated one of the world’s top players, Lee Sedol, in a widely watched match that stunned millions.

Demis Hassabis and John Jumper at Google DeepMind on Oct. 9, 2024, after being awarded the Nobel Prize in chemistry.
AP Photo/Alastair Grant

In 2016, Hassabis shifted DeepMind’s focus to a new challenge: the protein-folding problem. Under the leadership of John Jumper, a chemist with a background in protein science, the AlphaFold project began. The team used a large database of experimentally determined protein structures to train the AI, which allowed it to learn the principles of protein folding. The result was AlphaFold2, an AI that could predict the 3D structure of proteins from their amino acid sequences with remarkable accuracy.

This was a significant scientific breakthrough. AlphaFold has since predicted the structures of over 200 million proteins – essentially all the proteins that scientists have sequenced to date. This massive database of protein structures is now freely available, accelerating research in biology, medicine and drug development.

Designer proteins to fight disease

Understanding how proteins fold and function is crucial for designing new drugs. Enzymes, a type of protein, act as catalysts in biochemical reactions and can speed up or regulate these processes. To treat diseases such as cancer or diabetes, researchers often target specific enzymes involved in disease pathways. By predicting the shape of a protein, scientists can figure out where small molecules – potential drug candidates – might bind to it, which is the first step in designing new medicines.

In 2024, DeepMind launched AlphaFold3, an upgraded version of the AlphaFold program that not only predicts protein shapes but also identifies potential binding sites for small molecules. This advance makes it easier for researchers to design drugs that precisely target the right proteins.

Google bought Deepmind for reportedly around half a billion dollars in 2014. Google DeepMind has now started a new venture, Isomorphic Labs, to collaborate with pharmaceutical companies on real-world drug development using these AlphaFold3 predictions.

David Baker speaks on the phone with Demis Hassabis and John Jumper just after they got the Nobel Prize news on Oct. 9, 2024.
Ian C. Haydon/UW Medicine Institute for Protein Design

For his part, David Baker has continued to make significant contributions to protein science. His team at the University of Washington developed an AI-based method called “family-wide hallucination,” which they used to design entirely new proteins from scratch. Hallucinations are new patterns – in this case, proteins – that are plausible, meaning they are a good fit with patterns in the AI’s training data. These new proteins included a light-emitting enzyme, demonstrating that machine learning can help create novel synthetic proteins. These AI tools offer new ways to design functional enzymes and other proteins that never could have evolved naturally.

AI will enable research’s next chapter

The Nobel-worthy achievements of Hassabis, Jumper and Baker show that machine learning isn’t just a tool for computer scientists – it’s now an essential part of the future of biology and medicine.

By tackling one of the toughest problems in biology, the winners of the 2024 prize have opened up new possibilities in drug discovery, personalized medicine and even our understanding of the chemistry of life itself. Läs mer…

Mech Dara, an award-winning Cambodian journalist and one of the kingdom’s last remaining independent media voices, was arrested on Monday, September 30. He has been detained over a social media post for “incitement to disturb social security”, and faces up to two years in jail.

The news of Dara’s arrest has saddened and disturbed many within Cambodia and elsewhere. But it will have shocked few. Dara’s courageous journalism has made him a persistent thorn in the side of Cambodia’s ruling class.

No stranger to harassment and intimidation by Cambodia’s increasingly repressive state apparatus, Dara had told me when we last met that he was considering applying for political asylum abroad. Life had become impossible in Cambodia.

From humble beginnings, Dara built his reputation on a dogged commitment to justice, whose work includes exposing human rights abuse, illegal logging, land grabs and labour struggles in his homeland. These are rife in a notoriously corrupt state that ranks 141 out of 142 countries worldwide on the World Justice Project’s Rule of Law Index.

Most recently, however, Dara’s investigations have focused on uncovering abuse in Cambodia’s cyberscam industry. Dara’s reporting, which in 2023 earned him a “Hero” commendation by the US State Department, revealed how the industry often involves cyberscam compounds staffed by victims of human trafficking.

His investigations have disclosed how these people are compelled under the threat of physical torture and financial extortion to perform acts of deception and fraud on targets across China, the US, Europe and beyond, through fake romances or cryptocurrency schemes.

The UN estimates that at least 100,000 people have been tricked into participating in this criminal industry, which is now said to be worth more than US$12 billion (£9.1 billion) per year in Cambodia.

Dara has turned to identifying the political and business elites in Cambodia whose complicity enables the criminal syndicates who run the compounds to flourish with impunity.

Some of his best-known work linked the LYP Group, which is owned by prominent Cambodian businessman and state senator, Ly Yong Phat, to the operation of scam compounds in Cambodia’s Koh Kong province. Ly Yong Phat continues to deny any involvement.

The timing of Dara’s arrest may be no coincidence. He was detained 18 days after the US treasury department sanctioned Ly Yong Phat for his role in serious human rights abuse related to the treatment of trafficked workers.

Dara’s arrest is believed by some to be an act of retaliation intended to send a chilling message to those who challenge the vested interests of Cambodia’s incumbent kleptocracy: be silent or you will be silenced.

It continues a pattern of the Cambodian oligarchy’s waging of “lawfare” against members of civil society, using the court system to intimidate and muzzle critics. It is the surest sign yet that Cambodia’s new prime minister, Hun Manet, intends to follow his predecessor’s pathway into intensifying authoritarianism.

The son rises

Cambodia’s self-proclaimed “strongman” leader, Hun Sen, stepped down as prime minster in August 2023 after nearly 40 years in power. He chose Manet, his oldest son, as his successor.

A dynastic succession does not typically indicate a democratic transfer of power. Yet hopes were raised that Manet might reverse the increasingly authoritarian trajectory of his father’s rule.

Where Hun Sen came of age fighting on the frontlines of Cambodia’s civil war, Hun Manet has had a more worldly upbringing. He was educated in the US and UK, and obtained a PhD in economics from the University of Bristol.

Cambodian prime minister, Hun Manet, who succeeded his father Hun Sen in 2023.
Sa sola / Shutterstock

Some observers believed that the softly spoken and sharp-suited Manet might possess a more liberal worldview than that of his father, ushering a new era of renewed democracy.

Hun Sen’s reign in Cambodia was characterised by an increasing reliance on what researcher Neil Loughlin terms the “politics of coercion” to cement his hold on power. The Hun family are at the centre of a network of tightly entwined business and state elites that exert a stranglehold over Cambodia’s politics and economy.

This kleptocratic coalition is accused of asset-stripping the kingdom of its once-abundant natural resources, enriching themselves at the cost of impoverishing the many. As a result, popular dissent has grown.

To quell any threat to its longevity, the ruling Cambodian People’s party (CPP) has led a concerted crackdown on freedoms of association, assembly and expression. Over the past decade, this has included the shuttering of almost all independent news outlets, the dissolution of the opposition Cambodian National Rescue party, and the detention of its leader, Kem Sokha, under house arrest.

As the architect of the Paris Peace Accords that brokered the end to Cambodia’s civil war, the old guard of the party has sought to legitimise its heavyhanded approach by stressing the continued need to preserve order and stability to prevent descent into further unrest.

A false dawn

Manet has been keen to present himself as part of a new guard, ready to reengage with major powers such as the US and EU. Both the US and EU had cooled relations with Cambodia following the democratic deficits unleashed during Hun Sen’s premiership.

Yet the cyberscam story and its growing repercussions have embarrassed Cambodia on the international stage. By apparently censoring Mech Dara for uncovering the scandal, rather than seeking to control party elements responsible for the cyberscam scourge, Manet appears to be showing where his true loyalties and sentiments lie.

Dara is but one of a long line of dissenters charged with “incitement” by the CPP-controlled courts. With its explicit reference to the conjured threat of renewed social chaos, it harks to the CPP’s past as custodian of order and stability.

The heavyhanded nature of the arrest itself, where Dara was apprehended by a convoy of six military vehicles while on vacation with his family, is also straight out of the CPP’s historic playbook. Persecution not by stealth but by flourish, it sends a wider message to civil society to deter any would-be imitators.

More crucially, it signals a forceful intent to preserve the power, plunder and impunity of Cambodia’s elites, and a commitment to the continued silencing of dissenting voices who threaten their supremacy. Läs mer…

Ultra-processed foods are the latest nutritional villains, associated with several diseases of the modern world, from obesity to heart disease. However, many nutritionists question whether the term “ultra-processed” does any more than create confusion. It only considers the way food is produced, ignoring other important factors like calories and nutrients.

My work suggests that instead of being viewed as the problem, ultra-processed foods could actually be part of the solution. With advances in food science, we have the technology to create low-calorie, nutritious and affordable processed foods.

There is no consensus about how ultra-processed foods should be defined. But a common approach was proposed by the nutrition and public health scholar, Carlos Monteiro. He coined the term about 15 years ago, defining foods that undergo significant industrial processing and often contain multiple added ingredients. In Portugal, ultra-processed food make up about 10% of the average diet, whereas in Germany it’s 46%, the UK 50% and in the US 76%.

Ultra-processed foods three major advantages – they are cheap, convenient and they usually taste good. Their affordability in particular is an important factor.

Producing food in bulk reduces costs. For instance, the Heinz factory in Wigan is the largest baked bean factory in the world. It produces 3 million cans of baked beans a day, ensuring they are widely available and affordable.

In 1961, scientists in Chorleywood, Hertfordshire developed a new method for making bread. Today, more than 80% of loaves in Britain are produced this way. These loaves are softer, last longer and cost less than traditional bread.

What’s better than sliced bread?
Clynt Garnham Food & Drink/Alamy

The affordability of ultra-processed food makes them a staple for many, particularly people on lower incomes. As around 30% of children in the UK live in poverty, calls to remove such foods from diets need to address how poorer families will be able to afford fresher and more nutritious food. Current ultra-processed foods may not offer a perfect diet, but they do provide calories when money is scarce.

Read more:
Ultra-processed foods: here’s what the evidence actually says about them

Convenience is another notable benefit of ultra-processed food. Preparing meals from scratch can be time-consuming, involving buying ingredients, cooking and cleaning up afterwards. Ultra-processed foods offer a shortcut, saving valuable time. This is especially important for parents trying to balance jobs and family life. For those with busy lives who are working long hours, time is a luxury that ultra-processed food can help reclaim.

Finally, ultra-processed foods are designed to be tasty. We’re genetically inclined to be attracted to sweet and fatty foods. Having a pleasant taste is one of the reasons we select our food.

This convenience, affordability and taste come at a cost, however, as ultra-processed foods are often high in sugar, salt and saturated fats, while lacking in fruits, vegetables and essential nutrients.

Are all ultra-processed foods bad for us?

It’s not always clear if it’s the “ultra-processed” nature of these foods or their high calorie and low nutrient content that causes health issues. Nutrition is more complex than just considering how food is processed. We also need to consider calories, fibre, vitamins, minerals and other essential nutrients.

For example, while baked beans are considered ultra-processed, they’re also high in fibre – something often missing from UK diets – low in fat and calories, and a good source of plant-based protein.

Inside the world’s largest baked bean factory in Wigan.

Some studies suggest that many health problems linked to ultra-processed food, like obesity and diabetes, may be caused by excess calorie consumption rather than the processing itself. When people cut out ultra-processed foods, they often end up eating fewer calories, which could explain the health benefits they experience.

The link between ultra-processed foods and poverty suggests that many of the health issues linked to ultra-processed food may be caused by factors associated with poverty itself. Poor nutrition is often just one part of a wider picture that includes limited access to healthcare, higher stress levels and fewer opportunities for physical activity – all of which can contribute to poor health.

Can ultra-processing be used for good?

Ultra-processing has been used to fortify foods in the UK for decades. For example, the Bread and Flour Regulations 1998 requires certain nutrients like calcium, iron, thiamine (vitamin B1) and niacin (vitamin B3) to be added to any non-wholemeal flour. This fortification plays an important role in public health, providing around 35% of calcium intake, 31% of iron and 31% of thiamine to the average UK diet. Without these added nutrients, the risk of deficiencies would rise.

The UK government took a further step in 2022 by requiring folic acid be added to flour. It was a move aimed at preventing birth defects such as spina bifida, where a baby’s spine and spinal cord doesn’t develop properly in the womb, and anencephaly, where a baby is born without parts of the brain and skull.

Breakfast cereals, often criticised for their sugar content, can also boost the intake of essential nutrients like vitamins B2, B12, folate and iron. Some experts would like to see mandatory food fortification be extended much further.

Food scientists are exploring other ways to make ultra-processed foods healthier. One approach involves reducing sugar by making it taste sweeter more quickly, which means less sugar is needed to achieve the same taste.

Another is using scientific techniques to increase the speed at which salt is released from food. Similarly, this results in it being tasted more quickly, leading to lower consumption.

Other innovations to lower the calories in foods by changing the recipe include creating creamy, low-calorie sauces without dairy, or plant-based burgers that are virtually indistinguishable from their meat counterparts, but have fewer calories.

These types of innovations show that ultra-processing doesn’t necessarily mean unhealthy and calorie-dense food – it’s about the choices made in production. If scientists focus on creating affordable, nutritious ultra-processed foods, they could become part of the solution to the obesity crisis, rather than the enemy. Läs mer…