Johansen.se

The world’s major shipping companies say they won’t be sending vessels back to the Red Sea any time soon despite a pledge by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen not to attack them as long as the ceasefire in Gaza holds.

French shipping and logistics company CMA CGM said in a statement on January 25 that the improved stability was “a positive but fragile sign” for the industry, and that it would continue to prioritise alternative routes.

Since November 2023, one month after the war in Gaza began, the Houthis have launched missile and drone attacks against roughly 190 commercial and naval ships in the Red Sea’s Bab al-Mandab Strait. The group claims to have carried out attacks on vessels connected with Israel, or heading to its ports, in solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Though this has not always been the case.

These attacks have prompted many shipping companies to stop using the Red Sea – a route that around 12% of global trade usually passes through – and divert around the southern tip of Africa. This route adds more than 7,000 nautical miles on to a typical round-trip voyage. The number of commercial ships using the Suez Canal to pass between the Mediterranean and the Red Sea plummeted from over 26,000 in 2023 to 13,200 in 2024.

Supply chains have had to deal with higher shipping costs, product delivery delays, and increased carbon emissions as a result of this diversion. The Gaza ceasefire gave some hope that the disruption would finally end. But shipping lines will not hurry back to the region until long-term security is guaranteed.

Since November 2023, shipping companies have been diverting their vessels around the southern tip of Africa to avoid the Red Sea.
Dimitrios Karamitros / Shutterstock

During the early stages of the crisis, moving a container from Shanghai in China to Europe cost approximately 250% more than before the war in Gaza began. This was largely due to increased fuel costs and higher insurance premiums. Freight rates (the price companies pay to transport goods) remained high throughout 2024, despite some fluctuations.

The cost of moving a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Rotterdam in the Netherlands, for example, surged from around US$4,400 on average in January to above US$8,000 by August. This had dropped to US$4,900 at the end of the year.

It is too early to say whether these costs will be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices – full transmission through the supply chain to consumer prices can take upwards of 12 months. But some estimates suggest global consumer prices could rise by 0.6% on average in 2025 as these increased shipping costs filter through the supply chain.

Diverting around southern Africa also resulted in delays in the delivery of many goods and components. The proportion of container ships that arrived on schedule dropped from 60% on average worldwide in 2023 to about 50% throughout 2024. This created congestion at ports because ships often arrived at their destination later than planned, resulting in further delivery delays.

Unreliable transit times are a significant issue for supply chains because they make it difficult for businesses to plan inventory and coordinate production schedules. Indeed, several vehicle manufacturers, including Tesla and Volvo, temporarily suspended manufacturing in early 2024 due to a lack of components. And food supply chains, including those for avocados, tea and coffee, were also affected by delays.

Since then, many companies have adapted by increasing their safety stock levels and transporting cargo using alternative modes of transport like air and rail. Some European firms have also adopted a strategy called “nearshoring”, where they source products from regions closer to home such as Turkey and Morocco instead of relying on suppliers in Asia.

Increased emissions

The longer route around southern Africa requires that ships travelling between Europe and Asia use around 33% more fuel on average than they would use by travelling through the Red Sea at the same speed.

Over the past decade, most shipping companies have employed a “slow steaming” policy to economise on fuel use and minimise their carbon emissions. But diverted ships have been travelling around 5% faster than usual in an attempt to minimise delays. The increased vessel speeds will have caused the associated emissions toll to rise – large container vessels require 2.2% more fuel for every 1% increase in speed.

More data is required to determine the precise amount of additional emissions caused by diverting shipping away from the Red Sea. But estimates suggest that approximately 13.6 million tonnes of CO₂ were emitted by ships rerouted from the Red Sea between December 2023 and April 2024 – equivalent to the carbon emissions of nine million cars over the same period. If ships continue to avoid the region, the increased emissions could amount to 41 million extra tonnes of CO₂ per year.

Some cargo has also shifted from sea transport to air freight, which has a far greater environmental footprint. Shipping a kilogram of product by long-haul air freight generates at least 50 times more CO₂ emissions on average than container shipping.

Carbon emissions have increased due to the diversion of vessels around southern Africa.
David G40 / Shutterstock

Before returning to the Suez Canal, container lines will want to see a prolonged period of stability around the Red Sea. This is due, in part, to safety and security concerns related to the crew, cargo and the ship.

But shipping companies also have operational challenges to keep in mind associated with the scheduling of port calls and voyages. Shipping lines will find it difficult to switch back to the longer route around Africa immediately if attacks in the Red Sea resume.

And, at least for now, the situation in the Bab al-Mandab Strait remains unpredictable. In a televised speech on January 20, Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi warned: “We have our finger on the trigger.”

With other disruptions continuing to affect global shipping, such as port strikes, low water levels in the Panama Canal and extreme weather events, supply chain issues are likely to continue throughout 2025. Läs mer…

A human case of bird flu has recently been detected in England. This news comes just days after restrictions were put in place to curb the virus’s spread among wild birds and poultry in England and Scotland.

Although cases of bird flu are surging among birds in the UK, the risk of the virus spreading to humans still remains extremely low. A bit of context about influenza explains why health protection agencies think this is the case.

There are many different influenza viruses out there. They’re all related, but each specialises in infecting different types of animals.

Each winter, humans have to deal with three different types of seasonal influenza virus – H1N1, H3N2 and influenza B viruses. Meanwhile, birds, particularly shore birds and waterfowl, contend with a huge number of their own influenza viruses.

Most of these avian influenza viruses only afflict birds with minor infections of the airway or gut. But a small set cause more serious illness. These are called highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs).

Among the HPAIVs, the H5N1 strains stand out. H5N1 bird flu, which is largely a disease of wild birds, has been notorious since the late 1990s for causing major die-offs of poultry worldwide – and for occasionally causing serious illness in humans. Viruses evolve rapidly, and in 2020 H5N1 evolved so it could spread more aggressively in wild birds.

The resulting outbreak tore through bird populations globally, including devastating die-offs in seabird colonies when the virus arrived in the UK in 2021. As it spread, the virus also caused outbreaks in farmed birds.

All outbreaks ebb and flow. After mid-2023, cases of H5N1 subsided in the UK. However, the virus never fully disappeared – and in autumn 2024, cases in wild birds started increasing again. It’s very hard to keep wild birds and farmed birds apart, and infections in poultry farms soon followed.

In the UK, the threat of H5N1 to birds is tracked through ongoing surveillance. In response to these rising cases, avian influenza prevention zones have recently been declared for England, Scotland and now Wales. These restrictions aim to reduce the risk of farmed birds getting infected. Anyone keeping birds in England, Scotland and Wales will be required to take additional measures to prevent their birds being infected – including keeping birds under cover in regions facing the greatest risk.

Wild birds spread the virus to domestic poultry.
Andrew M. Allport/ Shutterstock

These prevention zones are an important intervention. But given the current outbreak’s scale in wild birds, these measures will at best only reduce the ongoing risk to farmed birds, rather than eliminating it.

What does this outbreak mean for humans?

Despite the serious problems H5N1 is causing for birds, the risk to humans is still very low. Because each virus is closely adapted to a particular host species, it’s really hard for bird flu to infect a human.

When infections do occur, this is normally only in people who have close contact with birds – and even then it’s an unusual event. The recent case of bird flu in a poultry worker in England is almost certainly an example of this sort of “spillover” infection.

It’s good to hear the affected person is currently well and that antiviral drugs – which work against these viruses – have been offered to others who may have been exposed. The control measures announced over the weekend will help reduce the risk of other people who work with poultry getting infected.

If you don’t have close contact with either wild or farmed birds, your chances of being infected are very low indeed. Still, if you come across any dead birds (particularly waterfowl), it’s important to avoid handling them. Try to prevent pets from scavenging bird carcasses and avoid feeding pets raw bird meat from non-commercial sources. Sightings of dead or sick birds can be reported to health protection agencies.

Because influenza viruses are killed quickly by heat, there should be no risk to the public from eating properly-cooked eggs or poultry. The UK outbreak may also cause temporary difficulties in accessing free-range eggs and an increase in egg prices – things that have already been seen in the US, which is also experiencing a major H5N1 outbreak.

Is bird flu a problem anywhere else?

What’s happening in the UK is just one part of an ongoing global H5N1 outbreak.

In some regions, strains of the virus have managed to spread beyond wild birds and infect mammals as well. In South America, H5N1 is causing devastating outbreaks in seals and sea lions. In the US, it has managed to adapt to dairy cattle and is being shed in their milk.

There have also been reported human infections. In the US, numerous farm workers have caught H5N1 from cattle, so far with relatively mild symptoms. There have also been two cases of severe illness in the US and Canada in people who caught a slightly different strain of H5N1 from birds, one of which sadly led to the patient’s death.

These cases underscore the potential risks of H5N1 infections. But because human infections are so rare, how likely each strain of H5N1 is to cause severe disease in humans is still unclear. We also need to be on the lookout for any signs that any H5N1 strain anywhere might gain the ability to spread between humans. This would be an exceptionally unusual event – but to minimise the risk of future influenza pandemics, it’s crucial situations like this are carefully monitored.

Nothing has been reported which suggests human-to-human transmission has occurred anywhere during the current outbreak. In the UK we have good surveillance for detecting any signs of this if it did. If wider spread did occur, the reserves of vaccines and antiviral drugs that we have in the UK would give us opportunities to intervene.

For now, bird flu remains a very real problem, but is primarily a problem for birds. By intervening now to protect farmed birds, we hope that we can keep it that way. Läs mer…

The start of a new Trump presidency in the US may well signal the introduction of policies that limit the knowledge children can access in schools.

Already, districts in states across the US are able to ban books from schools and libraries, often on topics such as race and LGBTQ+ identities. And during the presidential campaign, Trump said that he would withhold federal funding from schools that “recognise transgender identities”.

But these kinds of limits on education are not only present in the US. Across the world, there are concerted efforts to control who can access education and what children can learn in schools.

“Anti-gender” movements reject the social changes that come from an increase in rights for women and LGBTQI+ people. They promote a social order based on patriarchal gender norms, heterosexual marriage and a binary understanding of gender. They target schools because education has unique potential to influence social norms and attitudes for the long term.

These movements are funded largely by conservative foundations and individuals, largely in the US and Europe. They work together to disrupt children’s educational opportunities and undermine gender equality in the global south, particularly Africa and Latin America.

My report, co-written with colleagues from the thinktank ODI Global, has found that this is an accelerating and well-funded trend. But it can be countered, including through the use of legislation that upholds human rights. Understanding the nature of these movements and how to counter them is vital to protect all children’s rights to a quality education.

Global reach

In the last decade, these movements have become greatly influential. They are global in reach and include politicians, foundations, think-tanks, media ecosystems, religious institutions and grassroots civil society.

One such group, for instance, is the multi-lingual online platform CitizenGO. It mobilises people to sign petitions and engage in letter-writing campaigns to influence policy both at national and global levels.

In 2017 CitizenGo sponsored an orange “anti-trans” bus that travelled through Europe and the Americas. Though the organisation boasts that it is funded by small donations, investigative research indicates it likely received seed funding from religious and far-right sources in Russia and western Europe.

Between 2008 to 2017, the aggregate revenue of US-based organisations linked to the anti-gender movement amounted to US$6.2 billion (£5 billion) according to research from the Global Philanthropy Project, a group of funders aiming to advance LGBTI+ rights. Over this same period, 11 US-based organisations funnelled at least US$1 billion to like-minded organisations abroad.

In schools, these movements focus on amplifying and manufacturing outrage around comprehensive sexuality education.

Stifling sex education

Comprehensive sex education has been developed to provide young people with age-appropriate and accurate information about sex, relationships, and bodily changes. It has been proven to help reduce teenage pregnancy and encourage safer, more equal sexual relationships. But it has become a lightning rod for the movement to generate fear, backlash and ignite parental protests in places as diverse as South Africa, Peru and Ghana.

Anti-comprehensive sexuality education campaigns frame this educational content as inappropriate. They advocate for sex education based solely on “biological facts” or the promotion of abstinence.

They present the discussion of topics such as consent and bodily autonomy, or information on contraception and safe sex practices, as likely to encourage sexual experimentation and teenage pregnancy. This is despite as decades of evidence showing that the opposite is true.

In Peru, for example, the Con Mis Hijos No Te Metas (Don’t Mess with My Kids) movement started as a parental movement protesting against inclusion of gender equality material in the basic education curriculum. The movement’s campaigns have spread to oppose comprehensive sexuality education in countries including Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico.

Students head to school in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
A. M. Teixeira/Shutterstock

With long-term flexible funding, the anti-gender movement can respond to emerging policies and situations. It can wage long-term campaigns to shift norms and policies.

In regions such as Africa and Latin America, one of the most successful tactics has been to deploy anti-colonial language. This includes painting comprehensive sexuality education or acceptance of homosexuality as being imposed by “the west”.

However, funding from conservative US and European foundations designed to entrench certain gender norms and forms of sexual morality in Latin America and Africa can equally be considered as a form of neo-colonialism. Between 2007 and 2020, over US$54 million was spent on the African continent by US-based Christian groups, supporting campaigns against LGBTQ+ rights and comprehensive sexuality education.

Another key tactic is the dissemination of misinformation, exploiting parental anxieties and fears. These include exaggerated claims that often bear little relation to the actual content of curricula and learning materials.

However, our research has found that in countries where legal frameworks and systems uphold human rights, legal action can protect access to a full and effective education.

For example, strategic litigation has overturned state laws in Mexico and Brazil that restricted sexuality education. Legal approaches have also ended policies that banned adolescent mothers from returning to school in Sierra Leone.

Countering misinformation about what is taught in schools is vital. This can involve sharing accurate information about topics such as sexuality education with parents, and usually works best as part of a face-to-face dialogue.

CitizenGO did not respond to a request for comment by the time this article was published. Läs mer…

The UK chancellor Rachel Reeves says the Labour government will go “further and faster” to kick-start the British economy. Economic growth – to raise living standards and fund public services – is apparently a core mission of this government.

Yet since the general election last July, this growth has proved elusive.

In fairness, the UK economy been pretty stagnant for a long time. And as Reeves sometimes mentions, she arguably inherited the worst set of economic circumstances since 1974.

Nevertheless, the government has been guilty of some major own goals. The means-testing of winter fuel payments drew derision, while the public framing of a “painful” budget in October 2024 dented business and consumer confidence.

So after a difficult first six months in office, the chancellor’s big speech on January 29 was an opportunity for a major economic reset. And there were some signs of encouragement.

She reaffirmed, for example, a commitment to reforming the UK’s antiquated planning laws for residential and commercial building. And there was a big emphasis on public investment, which is to rise to 2.6% of GDP over this parliament, compared to the previous government’s plans of 1.9%.

Airport expansion at Heathrow (and to a lesser extent, Luton and Gatwick) aims to enhance global connectivity and increase trade and investment, especially with emerging economies.

But those plans, which run counter to the government’s net zero goals, unsurprisingly sparked the ire of environmental campaigners, as well as some senior Labour MPs and party donors.

They may also widen the UK’s regional inequalities, drawing more investment and economic activity to the south-east. The same goes for the notion of building Europe’s “Silicon Valley” between Oxford and Cambridge.

That said, some other regions may benefit from announcements which included a £28 million investment in Cornish Metals (for materials for solar panels and wind turbines), and £63 million for advanced fuels which should bring more high-skilled jobs to areas like Teesside. There were also plans for housing and commercial redevelopment around Old Trafford in Manchester.

Some of these projects will form part of the government’s new industrial strategy, which is expected in the spring.

Red tape restrictions

One word to look out for when that strategy is unveiled is “Brexit”, which continues to act as a drag on the UK’s growth. Yet in her speech, while Reeves used the “growth” word more than 50 times, she mentioned Brexit just once.

It deserves much more attention. For investment in the UK has been lacklustre since the 2016 referendum, and research shows that post-Brexit red tape has hampered exports, especially for smaller firms. Overall, the UK’s exports of goods are down by 9% since 2020, while similar economies have seen their exports rise by 1%.

There are government plans for more wind turbines.
Nuttawut Uttamaharad/Shutterstock

The chancellor has previously suggested a Brexit “reset”, and there may be a future a deal to ease some Brexit agri-food trade barriers. Reeves has also floated the possibility of the UK joining a “Pan-Euro” customs zone.

Other moves which might help UK manufacturing include a bill that would allow the government to keep pace with new EU product safety regulations, and anything else which avoids new administrative costs for businesses.

Yet despite the government perhaps adopting a more conciliatory tone with the EU, there are frustrations with the UK’s “red lines”, such as a refusal to agree to a scheme which would make it easier for young EU citizens to travel, work and study in the UK, and for young UK nationals to do the same in EU member states.

Execution

And while the chancellor’s speech highlighted the government’s long-term ambitions for growth, there was little to address current weaknesses quickly.

For despite a change to Labour’s self-imposed fiscal rules last autumnn, the government still faces significant public borrowing constraints. This will restrict the amount of investment required to fundamentally transform public infrastructure, without major private sector support.

And planning reforms, infrastructure projects, and new trade deals all take time and face political, legal and logistical hurdles. This will also delay growth.

Labour’s ambitions for a more pro-growth, pro-business agenda mark a positive shift, at least in tone. But actual, visible, tangible growth depends on execution. This in turn depends on private sector money, overcoming bureaucratic hurdles, and cutting the Brexit red-tape that continues to hamper trade with the EU.

Without effective action across the board, including immediate fiscal stimulus, the chancellor’s words may begin to sound a little hollow if the mission for growth soon starts to look like mission impossible. Läs mer…

Giraffes are among the world’s most recognisable animals. With their elongated necks and long legs, their gracious movements and unique coat patterns, they have inspired people’s imaginations for centuries.

But is a giraffe just a giraffe? Or is there more variety between the animals at a genetic level than is evident just from looking at them?

For more than a decade many researchers have compared the DNA of giraffes from all parts of Africa. These studies have revealed that there are four distinct giraffe species: the southern (Giraffa giraffa), Masai (Giraffa tippelskirchi), reticulated (Giraffa reticulata), and northern (Giraffa camelopardalis) giraffe.

Different giraffe species face different risks. Some are among the most threatened large mammals in the world. While the southern and the Masai giraffe are relatively numerous and their populations estimated at approximately 45,000 and 50,000 individuals respectively, the situation does not look quite as rosy for the reticulated and the northern giraffe. Based on the latest estimates from the Giraffe Conservation Foundation (GCF), only 16,000 and 6,000 individuals respectively remain in the wild.

Therefore, it is critical to verify whether there are indeed different species of giraffe or not so that direct conservation efforts for the most threatened species can be increased before it’s too late.

Read more:
How many giraffe species are there? Understanding this is key to their protection

The concept of species is fundamental in biology – but there is no consensus on its definition. There are many different approaches depending on individual scientists’ points of view. The best possible way to clarify the taxonomy (the system that organises living entities into groups) of organisms is through multiple approaches.

Read more:
Giraffes could go extinct – the 5 biggest threats they face

There have been several studies of giraffe species based on their DNA, as well as on their ecology, behaviour, health and coat patterns.

But there haven’t been many based on their skulls. That’s where our new study comes in. By examining the skulls of more than 500 giraffes from across the African continent, we were able to show that there are significant differences in the skull shapes of the different types of giraffe – and confirm that there are four species.

These new findings are crucial for giraffe taxonomy and, ultimately, their conservation.

How the study was done

Giraffe skulls are important to the animals’ reproduction and evolution. That’s because of their ossicones, the horn-like structures that are longer and wider in males than in females.

The size and shape of the ossicones is important in the dominance of males and their mating success with female giraffe. While some preliminary data already suggested some potential differences in the ossicone morphology between the giraffe species, limitations on the available specimens and the methodologies at the time reduced the validity of the results.

Comparison of male and female skulls of the four species in lateral view.
Kargopoulos et al 2024

For our research we used state-of-the-art equipment and methodologies, and we studied more than 500 giraffe skulls from all over Africa. The skulls were directly sampled in the field from across their natural range in Africa, as well as museum collections, wildlife authority offices, and taxidermists in different countries in Africa, Europe and the US.

Map showing the geographical range of the extant giraffe species and subspecies as well as representative male skulls of each subspecies in lateral view.
Kargopoulos et al 2024, CC BY

This extensive study required help from many different partners. While the project was initiated and guided by the Giraffe Conservation Foundation and the University of Cape Town, many colleagues in Africa, Europe and North America contributed.

We used a handheld 3D scanner to capture the skulls’ shape in 3D. Then we used 3D geometric morphometrics methods to compare the shape of the giraffe skulls and find out if we could group them and find any significant differences. We chose so-called landmarks – specific points on the skulls – and captured their coordinates in space (their 3D distance from the centre of mass of the skull).

Finally, specialised software was used to compare the differences in the coordinates of landmarks between our specimens and to conduct statistical analyses to show if these differences were significant or not.

Skull variations

These rigorous analyses allowed us to show skull variations between four species.

These differences mostly concerned the ossicones. But there were also minor differences in their face, eye sockets, the region around the teeth, and the back part of the skull.

The most striking difference concerned the median ossicone of the males. This is a smaller third ossicone situated in the midline of the skull above their eyes. We determined that there is a general trend in the size and shape of this ossicone that follows geography and taxonomy. In southern giraffe, the third ossicone is practically a small protrusion; in northern giraffe it is large and pointed; the Masai and reticulated giraffe have ossicones that are somewhere between those two forms.

Such differences are likely important in the way individuals of a species recognise each other, thus affecting their reproductive success. Males with more developed ossicones intimidate their rivals to gain access to territory and females.

Attention for individual species

Angolan giraffe eating in north-west Namibia.
© Giraffe Conservation Foundation, Author provided (no reuse)

Our study is confirmation of what scientists have known for almost a decade and supports the taxonomic split of the giraffe.

Similar discussions over two decades finally resulted in the African elephant being split into two distinct species in 2021.

The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) – which, it must be pointed out, is not a taxonomic authority – still only recognises one species of giraffe. It lumps all giraffes into one broad, threatened Red List category.

We strongly believe that the IUCN needs to stand tall for these animals and reassess their status. It is time for each giraffe species to get separate and enhanced attention, both locally and internationally, in particular when it comes to their conservation. Giraffes and their wild habitats must be protected before it’s too late. Läs mer…

After six months of talking down the economy and warning of tough times ahead, the UK chancellor Rachel Reeves has changed her tune. She is now much more optimistic about Britain’s economic prospects and has announced a raft of measures including major pension reforms designed to unlock cash to boost growth and productivity.

But Labour’s political problem is that none of her plans will have an immediate impact on the UK’s anaemic growth rate – the economy has virtually flatlined for the last six months. From day one Reeves has put growth at the centre of her plans, and a lack of it will mean tough choices in the spring, when she must spell out government spending plans for the next three years.

The government is focusing on a wide range of “supply side” reforms, including unleashing pension funds to invest in Britain, as well as relaxing the planning system and building infrastructure – many of which have an uncanny resemblance to measures once proposed by former prime minister Liz Truss.

At the heart of these plans is a big increase in investment in infrastructure to boost productivity – things like roads, public transport and technology – where Britain lags behind its major rivals.

But there’s a big catch. The independent spending watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), estimates that it will take years – or even decades – for infrastructure projects to transform the British economy, with only a 0.1% boost in growth in the near term for every additional 1% on public investment.

Without other measures that have a more immediate impact, the political risk to Labour is that its pledge to make everyone better off may feel hollow to voters.

The challenges are particularly acute for big transport projects, as the debacle of HS2 illustrates. Even with changes to the planning system, work on expanding Heathrow airport is unlikely to start before 2030. And major projects like the Lower Thames crossing between Kent and Essex and the Sizewell C nuclear reactor in Suffolk have been in the planning stage for nearly 20 years.

Electricity supply is another crucial area, with the need for more renewable energy and an expansion of the grid. This will now need to be financed largely by private capital as the government has scaled back its “green new deal”.

So how exactly will all these big plans be financed? The government is hoping to unleash additional investment from the UK pension fund industry, by changing the rules to allow defined benefit (sometimes called final salary) schemes with surpluses to invest more widely.

Although there is currently £160 billion available in these schemes, this could change if interest rates fall. It is also not clear how attractive such UK infrastructure investment would even be. Many projects, such as in privatised industries like water and electricity, will at least partly be funded by increased charges to consumers.

The government’s own spending plans to increase public investment are relatively modest. These plans bring government capital spending (which allows for borrowing under the fiscal rules) just slightly above the historic average.

Planning reform could also prove problematic. Although the government is changing some of the rules, especially in relation to housebuilding, planning decisions will be still made by local authorities. In many cases these will face strong local opposition, potentially delaying decisions.

This points to the larger political problem for the government. The changes will not eliminate the tension between the government’s growth and environmental objectives, with the latter potentially a crucial issue in many of the marginal seats won by Labour in the last election.

Heathrow expansion will put the government’s climate targets in serious jeopardy.
Dinendra Haria/Shutterstock

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has described the need to pull out the “weeds” of regulation as vital to growth plans. He has already sacked the head of the key regulatory agency, the Competition and Markets Authority. But allowing more consolidation of British industry could create monopolies, which tend to raise prices, increase profits and neglect investment.

There are even greater concerns over possible deregulation of the financial sector, which could abolish many of the safeguards established after the global financial crisis in 2008.

What’s missing?

The government is much less clear on what it is going to do about the supply of skilled labour than the availability of capital. Shortages of skilled workers could limit progress on these big infrastructure projects if workers are also needed to build housing.

Government plans for boosting skills training, and the funding for further and higher education, are still works in progress. Meanwhile, limits on immigration will reduce the number of skilled construction workers. And the details of the government’s plan to boost the labour force by getting more people on disability benefit back to work have yet to be spelled out.

As Labour sets out its long-term growth plan, dark clouds are looming. In particular, in global terms the British economy is one of the most dependent on international trade and investment. But most of its trade is with its two largest trading partners – the EU and the USA.

Growing protectionism in the US, coupled with a lack of access to EU markets caused by Brexit, could have a significant effect on Britain’s growth. The UK economy is projected by the IMF to grow by just 1.6% this year, which is still weak by historic standards.

It may be of little consolation to the public if this is higher than in France and Germany. Reeves may well find that’s simply not enough to satisfy the expectations of voters. Läs mer…

After six months of talking down the economy and warning of tough times ahead, the UK chancellor Rachel Reeves has changed her tune. She is now much more optimistic about Britain’s economic prospects and has announced a raft of measures including major pension reforms designed to unlock cash to boost growth and productivity.

But Labour’s political problem is that none of her plans will have an immediate impact on the UK’s anaemic growth rate – the economy has virtually flatlined for the last six months. From day one Reeves has put growth at the centre of her plans, and a lack of it will mean tough choices in the spring, when she must spell out government spending plans for the next three years.

The government is focusing on a wide range of “supply side” reforms, including unleashing pension funds to invest in Britain, as well as relaxing the planning system and building infrastructure – many of which have an uncanny resemblance to measures once proposed by former prime minister Liz Truss.

At the heart of these plans is a big increase in investment in infrastructure to boost productivity – things like roads, public transport and technology – where Britain lags behind its major rivals.

But there’s a big catch. The independent spending watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), estimates that it will take years – or even decades – for infrastructure projects to transform the British economy, with only a 0.1% boost in growth in the near term for every additional 1% on public investment.

Without other measures that have a more immediate impact, the political risk to Labour is that its pledge to make everyone better off may feel hollow to voters.

The challenges are particularly acute for big transport projects, as the debacle of HS2 illustrates. Even with changes to the planning system, work on expanding Heathrow airport is unlikely to start before 2030. And major projects like the Lower Thames crossing between Kent and Essex and the Sizewell C nuclear reactor in Suffolk have been in the planning stage for nearly 20 years.

Electricity supply is another crucial area, with the need for more renewable energy and an expansion of the grid. This will now need to be financed largely by private capital as the government has scaled back its “green new deal”.

So how exactly will all these big plans be financed? The government is hoping to unleash additional investment from the UK pension fund industry, by changing the rules to allow defined benefit (sometimes called final salary) schemes with surpluses to invest more widely.

Although there is currently £160 billion available in these schemes, this could change if interest rates fall. It is also not clear how attractive such UK infrastructure investment would even be. Many projects, such as in privatised industries like water and electricity, will at least partly be funded by increased charges to consumers.

The government’s own spending plans to increase public investment are relatively modest. These plans bring government capital spending (which allows for borrowing under the fiscal rules) just slightly above the historic average.

Planning reform could also prove problematic. Although the government is changing some of the rules, especially in relation to housebuilding, planning decisions will be still made by local authorities. In many cases these will face strong local opposition, potentially delaying decisions.

This points to the larger political problem for the government. The changes will not eliminate the tension between the government’s growth and environmental objectives, with the latter potentially a crucial issue in many of the marginal seats won by Labour in the last election.

Heathrow expansion will put the government’s climate targets in serious jeopardy.
Dinendra Haria/Shutterstock

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has described the need to pull out the “weeds” of regulation as vital to growth plans. He has already sacked the head of the key regulatory agency, the Competition and Markets Authority. But allowing more consolidation of British industry could create monopolies, which tend to raise prices, increase profits and neglect investment.

There are even greater concerns over possible deregulation of the financial sector, which could abolish many of the safeguards established after the global financial crisis in 2008.

What’s missing?

The government is much less clear on what it is going to do about the supply of skilled labour than the availability of capital. Shortages of skilled workers could limit progress on these big infrastructure projects if workers are also needed to build housing.

Government plans for boosting skills training, and the funding for further and higher education, are still works in progress. Meanwhile, limits on immigration will reduce the number of skilled construction workers. And the details of the government’s plan to boost the labour force by getting more people on disability benefit back to work have yet to be spelled out.

As Labour sets out its long-term growth plan, dark clouds are looming. In particular, in global terms the British economy is one of the most dependent on international trade and investment. But most of its trade is with its two largest trading partners – the EU and the USA.

Growing protectionism in the US, coupled with a lack of access to EU markets caused by Brexit, could have a significant effect on Britain’s growth. The UK economy is projected by the IMF to grow by just 1.6% this year, which is still weak by historic standards.

It may be of little consolation to the public if this is higher than in France and Germany. Reeves may well find that’s simply not enough to satisfy the expectations of voters. Läs mer…

The nave of Winchester Cathedral in Hampshire is, until February 26 2025, home to three monumental ambassadors from the sea, sculpted by artist Tessa Campbell Fraser.

In Campbell Fraser’s immersive art installation, three sculpted sperm whales (the largest of the toothed whales), hang from the cathedral ceiling. Toothed whales have teeth instead of the keratinous baleen that blue whales and others use to feed on tiny animals, such as krill. Sperm whales, which feed mainly on squid, are the largest predators alive today.

Their ecology is strange, but impressive. They are socially sophisticated, massive-brained, far-wandering, deep-diving and loud. Sperm whale clicks are the loudest biologically produced sound ever recorded.

Whales use these strange vocalisations to echolocate as they hunt for prey and to communicate to each other. In this installation, Campbell Fraser has creatively employed sperm whale clicks to vibrate paint on the banners that hang alongside the whales in the cathedral, serving as a visual representation of sperm whale “codas”. These repetitive patterns of clicks, lasting a few seconds, have intrigued researchers since they were first recorded off North Carolina, US, in the 1950s.

We now know that groups of sperm whales are organised into “vocal clans” based on unique coda repertoires. These whale call signatures have probably been learned culturally, but scientists are yet to understand what they mean.

Artist Tessa Campbell Fraser diving with sperm whales in Dominica in 2024.
Author provided (no reuse)

While carrying out her research, Fraser Campbell referenced a multidisciplinary research collaboration that’s seeking to translate whale calls using artificial intelligence. Already, that project has discovered that sperm whale codas are far more complex than previously thought.

The three whale sculptures (which are between three and five metres long) are made, in part, from “ghost gear” – this is abandoned, lost, and discarded fishing gear, collected at sea by British charity Ghost Fishing UK. Floating ghost gear, which includes fishing nets, can kill or entangle marine life such as whales.

At the opening of the exhibition, Campbell Fraser recounted reports of stranded sperm whales whose stomachs were filled with plastic debris. One sperm whale that was found dead in Pas-de-Calais, France, had 25kg of debris, including nets and rope, in its stomach.

Despite this lethal backstory, Fraser Campbell’s method of construction gives the whales an ephemerality and lightness. This seems at odds with their mass in real life, for sperm whales can weigh 45 tonnes, but it is apt considering they are nearly weightless in water. This has allowed baleen whales to evolve such massive bodies. Blue whales are the largest animals to have ever lived, despite feeding almost exclusively on tiny krill.

These three sperm whales are on exhibition until 26 February 2025.
The University of Southampton., CC BY-NC-ND

Using netting in these sculptures represents, on one level, the increasing effects of humans on the ocean and whales. On another level, it hints at the long entanglement between human history and whales. Our spiritual, cultural and intellectual links with whales are represented through rich intersections of art and science.

One famous literary example is the 1851 novel Moby Dick by Herman Melville, which artfully weaved descriptions of whale biology with the human story of pre-industrial whaling. This theme is also explored by our colleague Philip Hoare in his book Leviathan (2009).

Unfortunately, people have negative effects on the oceans. The consequences of pollution, overfishing and climate change are widespread and increasing. Even in the furthest corners of the sea, whales may encounter humans or be affected by our influence, through climate change, noise and plastic pollution.

Our research has shown how whale foraging areas in the remote western Antarctic peninsula overlap with an increasing fishery for Antarctic krill which now requires urgent and careful management to ensure its sustainability for people and whales.

Through an unprecedented compilation of over 1,000 tracks from eight whale species globally, we have produced a world-first map of “whale superhighways” – the blue corridors whales use as they migrate across oceans. This map also highlights how these extensive migrations expose whales to a mosaic of threats at various scales. As a result, protecting whales requires coordinated effort at local and global scales.

From Protecting Blue Corridors – Challenges and solutions for migratory whales navigating national and international seas by Chris Johnson, Ryan Reisinger et al.

The art of acoustics

Of course, scale is a key consideration in the design of cathedrals. Winchester is a particularly fine example – at 170m, it is the longest medieval cathedral in the world.

On February 6, four composer-performers from the University of Southampton’s department of music will perform a specially commissioned, site-specific piece called Echolocations. The music will approach this intersection of art and scientific research from another angle, in part by responding to the expansive acoustics of the cathedral.

Vocalist Liz Gre and pianist Ben Oliver, with live electronics performed by Pablo Galaz and Drew Crawford, will work with this acoustic to evoke the vast aquatic distances across which whales communicate. And inspired by the ghost netting in Fraser Campbell’s sculptures, the music will address the threat that ongoing human activities are having on marine ecosystems via noise pollution.

We are polluting the oceans with plastic and sonic garbage. It sometimes seems we will be incapable of action until whale song ends up a digitally rendered collective memory.

But this performance inspires the same qualities of imagination that enable us to conceive of building the gothic medieval wonder of the cathedral’s nave, conquer oceans to build global trade networks, mine the ocean floor and use machine learning to understand whale song. This level of imagination will be vital in creating a new set of sustainable relations with the rest of the planet.

Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?
Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far. Läs mer…

Air pollution might protect against the most dangerous type of skin cancer, melanoma, a new study finds. However, it’s crucial to approach these results with caution and consider the broader context of air pollution’s effects on human health.

At first glance, the study’s conclusion is surprising. It showed that higher levels of particulate matter (PM), so-called PM10 and PM2.5 with the numbers 10 and 2.5 referring to the size of the actual air pollutant, may have a protective effect against melanoma.

The researchers found that increased exposure to these air pollutants was associated with a decreased risk of developing melanoma. It’s important, though, to understand the limitations of this study and why we shouldn’t rush to embrace air pollution as a potential shield against skin cancer.

One of the main issues with this study is its observational design which can only show associations, not prove causation. This means that while there might be a link between higher particulate matter levels and lower melanoma risk, we can’t say for certain that air pollution is directly causing this effect.

It was also undertaken in one area of Italy, and there weren’t many participants compared to other studies of this type. While it’s possible that higher PM levels might block out exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation, the primary environmental risk factor for melanoma, this doesn’t mean that air pollution is good for our health overall.

It’s crucial to emphasise that air pollution is extremely harmful to human health in numerous ways. Particulate matter, especially the fine particles (PM2.5), can penetrate deep into our lungs and even enter our bloodstream. This exposure has been linked to a wide range of serious health problems, including respiratory diseases.

Air pollution can cause or exacerbate conditions like asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer. Exposure to particulate matter increases the risk of heart attacks, strokes and other cardiovascular problems. Additionally, a lot of recent research has shown links between air pollution and cognitive decline, dementia, and other neurological disorders.

The list is very long here and air pollution has even been associated with low birth weight, preterm birth and other adverse pregnancy outcomes. In fact, long-term exposure to air pollution is estimated to cause millions of premature deaths worldwide each year, even at lower amounts of PM.

While this study focused on melanoma, air pollution has been linked to increased risk of other types of skin problems, including premature ageing, hyperpigmentation (a skin condition that causes patches of skin to darken) and exacerbation of dermatological conditions like atopic dermatitis and psoriasis.

Melanoma is the deadliest type of skin cancer.
BSIP SA / Alamy Stock Photo

It’s also worth noting that the potential reduction in UV exposure due to air pollution doesn’t make it a safe or desirable alternative to proper sun protection. There are much healthier ways to protect ourselves from harmful UV radiation, such as using sunscreen, wearing protective clothing and seeking shade during peak sunlight hours. Prevention is, after all, better than treatment or a cure.

Risks far outweigh the benefits

Although this study provides an interesting perspective on the complex relationship between environmental factors and melanoma risk, it should not be interpreted as evidence that air pollution is beneficial for our health. To the researchers’ credit, they do mention some of the limitations and issues with their own work in the paper.

The potential slight reduction in melanoma risk, if confirmed by further research in larger studies and in other locations, would be far outweighed by the numerous and severe health risks associated with exposure to air.

It’s important that we all continue to advocate for cleaner air and support policies that reduce air pollution. The overall benefits of clean air for our health, the environment and quality of life are immense and well established. At the same time, we should maintain good sun protection habits to reduce our risk of skin cancer, including melanoma.

Future research may help us better understand the complex interactions between environmental factors and cancer risk, but for now, the message is clear: clean air is crucial for our health, and there are no shortcuts when it comes to protecting ourselves from both air pollution and UV radiation. Läs mer…

The recent decision by the Australian government to introduce a ban on social media for under-16s has been received with both praise and condemnation.

Those who approve of the proposal tend to consider that children are being exploited by egregious levels of exposure to this technology. Opponents of the ban argue that it is not proportionate to the potential harms of denying young people appropriate access to what have become integral features of everyday existence.

This somewhat adversarial situation falls prey to the twin perils of fatalism and
disasterism. It characterises the wider conversation about how we engage with the digital world. Here, fatalism signifies a weary resignation and disasterism suggests that we are all going to hell in a handcart. More specifically, these impulses impinge directly on school policy making and practice.

In our Economic and Social Research Council funded research project, Teaching for Digital Citizenship, my colleagues and I have sought to uncover more nuanced accounts of how young people engage with technology by collaborating with them.

The students in our study pointed us away from an adversarial framing of the issue and towards the need to foster more traditional forms of democratic thought. These practices draw on a robust tradition of what’s known as education for citizenship. That is, teaching students how to be active, thoughtful and informed citizens in a democratic society.

Such a robust notion of education for citizenship has been championed by a range of thinkers. Most notably, the British political theorist Bernard Crick in the 1990s and the educational thinker Lawrence Stenhouse in the 1970s. They both offered ideas about educational practices that rely not on the technology, nor on corporations, but on older “analogue” traditions of critical thought and engagement in subjects.

The students in our project expressed anxiety and sometimes guilt that they had spent too much time on their apps. By their own estimation, they were using apps for about eight hours a day. They told us that they were working on self discipline, but struggled to maintain these habits.

Proactively, the students’ response to their own growing awareness of the grip that their apps had over their time was to try to engage in more analogue study activities, such as reading books. But they were concerned to discover that their capacity for reading was limited. Some observed that they found it challenging to read more than five pages.

This is not to suggest that there are only downsides to being immersed in digital life. Many students suggested that there were also huge benefits. For example, they reported that gaming helped them acquire new skills and perspective.

These examples illustrate the ambiguities of social media apps and their effect on those of school age.

Ambiguous effects

In many countries, schools are required to provide remedies for a whole range of social ills – and often in a manner that is of questionable relevance to the purpose of education.

In his Ruskin Speech in 1976, former British prime minister James Callaghan asked whether education should be more aligned with the needs of industry, especially in providing the skills for employment. Since then, education in the UK, as elsewhere, has slowly moved away from how we should live, and towards how we are to make our living.

Today, educators accept that young people, along with the rest of us, will spend their lives entangled in a complex digital world. The task of education should therefore primarily be to act as a productive space in which students can critically reflect upon, and form judgments about that world.

Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese said the country’s ban would reduce the
Juergen Nowak / Shutterstock

Our research project engaged representatives from a variety of different sectors, including big tech companies, policymakers, teachers and ethicists. We also carried out an extensive survey, which highlighted that online safety and harm prevention should be prioritised within schools.

Our insights underscore the importance of recognising and reinforcing education as a way of reflecting on the way we live – and an opportunity for providing critical distance from the dilemmas of our everyday lives. The ban on social media in Australia, or indeed on any technology, therefore misses a key consideration about the purpose of education.

As has been seen under governments that have restricted the internet, banning technology rather than securing students’ safety may only serve to heighten the allure of that technology. Indeed, in our discussions with the students, they frequently reported their ability to deploy virtual private networks to circumvent their schools’ firewalls.

In November, Australian communications minister, Michelle Rowland, claimed that “there is wide acknowledgment that something must be done in the immediate term to help prevent young teens and children from being exposed to streams of content, unfiltered and infinite”.

I believe that this misunderstands both the problem and the solution. The actual problem is not that the content is “unfiltered and infinite”. It’s that it is highly curated to serve the profit-making objectives of tech corporations, and not the interests of children.

The solution, then, is not to banish the problem but to address it. Education in the digital age needs to be re-imagined as a vibrant way to reflect and critique the ways we live our lives. Läs mer…