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Celebrities can have huge influence and reach enormous audiences. That’s why Kamala Harris was happy to recently gain the endorsement of musician Taylor Swift.

Due to their media attention and massive fan bases, some Hollywood stars and musicians can appear more powerful than traditional politicians. And these perceptions of influence may also translate into actual impact.

Indeed, some celebrities have taken up causes, using their fame to overtly push for change (for instance, Bob Geldof and Princess Diana). Others endorse politicians, or successfully run for office themselves (for instance, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Ronald Reagan).

While it may seem like celebrities who pivot to politics are able to trade on their pre-existing notoriety, few celebrities are well known beyond their fan bases and many people would expect them to lack the gravitas of world leaders.

However, results of our recent exploratory study conducted in the UK shows that at least one celebrity, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, stands out. He achieved public recognition, leadership and trust ratings as high as the most well-known politicians.

Indeed, our study found that The Rock’s recognition was on par with the Nobel prize-winning, two-term US president Barack Obama. He was also considered more trustworthy than many politicians.

In the study, we invited 251 participants to evaluate the faces of 40 seasoned politicians and celebrities to assess their leadership potential and perceived personality traits.

Only six of the faces had close to universal recognition. Former US presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump, former UK prime minister Boris Johnson and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson scored 90% or above. By contrast, US president Joe Biden and Russian president Vladimir Putin were each recognised by 80%.

Interestingly, The Rock was also judged to be more considerate, competent, credible, intelligent and trustworthy than most politicians.

When asked to indicate how strongly participants felt about each figure’s leadership potential, the results were surprising. Biden scored 64%, higher than Putin’s 56%, which was in turn higher than Trump and Boris Johnson who both received 42%.

But a much larger percentage, 72%, rated The Rock as a strong leader, only bettered by Obama’s score of 87%. In our statistical models, two key personality traits, competency and credibility, predicted The Rock’s perceived potential as a national leader.

The Rock’s fame, stemming from his wrestling career persona, television presence, and Hollywood stardom, seem to demonstrate the impact of a well-maintained media image. His expertise in wrestling’s “kayfabe” style of performance (a dramatic wrestling style that is presented as genuine) has greatly boosted his public persona as an authentic “nice guy”.

This early experience, and a strong screen presence, is likely to have contributed to leadership scores similar to Obama. Here it seems that The Rock’s heavily cultivated media personality has translated into perceptions of effective leadership.

This idea connects with the theory of mediated authenticity , which suggests that positive perceptions arise when audiences view media figures in a favourable light. The Rock’s wrestling persona has allowed him to build a connection to his fans and he seems to have developed this further with his Hollywood roles.

What can Trump and Harris learn?

Politicians must also connect with the public. Boris Johnson, for example, did well in the 2019 UK election because he knew how to connect and leveraged this ability to his advantage.

However, leaders also need to be seen as knowledgeable and trustworthy to make an enduring positive difference.

The Rock was asked about political ambitions.

Some theorists of power argue that social influence derives from being well-liked, not just being famous. Of course, The Rock is famous for his nice guy image, along with his movie catalogue and perpetually perfect physique. His perceived leadership potential could come from being both popular and seen as a good role model.

The Rock’s potential has been spotted by political parties. He describes himself as an independent and back in 2023 he revealed that he had been approached by multiple political parties about possibly running for office.

Can you be a ‘nice’ populist?

The last few years has seen the rise of numerous political leaders around the world, who have been labelled with the term “populist”. Leading figures on this list include Trump, India’s prime minister Narendra Modi, former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro and Boris Johnson. However, these leaders tend not to be highly trusted.

The erosion of trust in politicians and political systems is a significant issue that can lead to decreased engagement with the democratic process, regardless of political level. This ultimately results in a civic structure that fails to represent the people it is meant to serve.

With the US presidential election just weeks away, and still virtually tied, political strategists for both of the major parties must confront a key question: how much trust does each candidate have from the public?

Like it or not, The Rock’s wrestling persona relied on building a genuine connection with fans through his kayfabe-style performance, and his friendly image. The careful cultivation of this has given him enduring popularity and, as an unintended consequence of that performance, leadership appeal on the national stage.

When you are perceived as being a genuinely nice leader, our early research suggests, trust will follow. Something that more politicians clearly need to understand. Läs mer…

Tensions are running high in the Middle East. The murderous attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7 2023 kicked off a spiral of violence in the region. That has culminated, a year later, in Israel mounting a ground invasion of Lebanon. The invasion, which Israel says aims to confront and destroy Hezbollah, follows 12 months of tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran, which have gradually escalated in intensity.

Given that Hezbollah is closely associated and supported by Iran, there is mounting concern that this conflict could become a major flashpoint in international relations. The worry is that this war might provide the spark that causes the next global conflict.

To understand how dangerous the situation could be, it’s worth looking at the theory of conflict escalation. In 1997, Austrian economist Friedrich Glasl published his nine-stage model of conflict escalation, which is generally accepted as the most sophisticated study of how conflicts can develop from disputes to all-out conflict (a step he gives the rather ominous name of “Together into the abyss”).

Nine stages of confict escalation.
Graphic by Swinnall, original from Sampi. Derived from: Konflikteskalation nach Glasl.svg, CC BY-NC

The first level is when a conflict is readily or easily resolved, but when a resolution is not achieved, positions on either side of the argument harden and frustration begin to mount. The next step naturally occurs when conflict parties seek to make their case, hoping to gain advantage in the court of global opinion.

Stage three of the model sees the adversaries beginning to take action. Neither side wants to yield advantage to the other, while any sense that discussion might mitigate the conflict has disappeared in mutual antagonism and mistrust. Accordingly at stage four, the conflict parties resort to an “us v them” rhetoric in an attempt to build coalitions and attract support. Stage five, described as “loss of face”, is when one or other of the antagonists feels they have become tarnished in the eyes of the community as a whole. Reputation no longer matters as much as achieving their ends. Sometimes one side or the other commits an act that it feels has isolated it, which only serves to harden it position.

In stage six, threats or ultimatums are issued. This can lead to hostilities spiralling as the conflict parties seek credibility by putting a timescale on a threat, which in turn will heighten the pressure on both sides. This can also bind another of the warring parties to a course of action from where there is little opportunity to retreat. This facilitates the move to stage seven, where the antagonists begin to trade the first limited blows in response to the threats they have made.

iliya Mitskovets / Alamy

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In stage eight, the offensive blows intensify, with the focus on trying to injure – or even destroy – the adversary’s capacity for response or call into question the legitimacy of the other side’s leader. Often this can lead to one or another of the parties fragmenting into warring factions, making the situation increasingly uncontrollable.

As the conflict hurtles into stage nine, the threat to one or another of the parties has become existential, who are now falling “together into the abyss”. All sense of caution is abandoned as the only goal is the total annihilation of the adversary. A state of total war.

What stage are we at?

After years of animosity and denunciation on both sides, the conflict between Israel and Iran has now progressed to the stage that both sides have exchanged limited blows against each other. Reports have linked Iran to the planning of the Hamas attack on October 7. Tehran has recently denied having any part in the massacre. Hezbollah, which is more closely linked to the Islamic Republic, has carried out a year-long barrage of rockets from Lebanon into northern Israel. In response, Israel has now directly struck against Iran’s proxy, invading southern Lebanon to engage and attempt to destroy Hezbollah.

Feelings are running high in Iran, where Israel is seen as a proxy for the ‘Great Satan’ in Washington.
EPA-EFE/Abedin Taherkenareh

Both sides clearly want to demonstrate their power and influence in the region. But the stakes could rise if Iran feels an urgent need to protect its proxies. For Israel, its leaders have long argued that its very existence is at stake.

In terms of Glasl’s stages of escalation, the two countries appear to have reached stage seven, where they are launching limited blows against each other while avoiding direct confrontation. Both want to make their adversary consider whether the cost of continuing is worth the potential rewards that can be gained.

Iran’s air attacks on Israel suggest that while Iran can see that its regional position is being threatened and is still seeking to support the non-state actors in Gaza and Lebanon, the way in which they have conducted their attacks suggest that Tehran does not feel itself powerful enough to escalate further than it already has.

The only direct blows the two powers have launched against each other have been from the air. Iran has now launched two (large) barrages of rockets against Israel, one in April this year and again at the end of September. Both bombardments were announced in advance and neither has resulted in Israeli casualties.

Israel responded in April with a targeted strike against an Iranian airbase close to one of the country’s nuclear installations. It has yet to directly respond to the latest Iranian barrage, but Netanyahu has said Israel would target Iran’s military installations “based on Israel’s national security needs”.

Analysts believe that both sides – so far at least – are using these limited strikes to signal their unwillingness to escalate. But there is a great deal at stake. Iran will feel its position as a regional power threatened by Israel’s ground campaign in Lebanon. Meanwhile Israel has repeatedly declared that it is fighting for the security of its people. Neither appears to want a wider conflict – and their allies certainly wouldn’t encourage them if they did.

So it’s clear that – up to now at least – neither Israel nor Iran wants to venture any further down the road to “the abyss” as envisaged by Glasl’s nine-stage model. Läs mer…

When negotiations at Cop15 – the UN’s biodiversity conference – ended in December 2022, many delegates breathed a sigh of relief.

Threatening snowstorms outside the convention centre in Montreal, Canada seemed to lift just as the political weather changed and the long-awaited Kunming-Montreal global biodiversity framework was agreed. It’s mission: to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030 in order to achieve the ultimate goal of a society living in harmony with nature by 2050.

Fast forward two years and governments, businesses, representatives of Indigenous people and local communities, experts from environmental groups such as the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and scientists will gather for the follow-up Cop16 meeting in Cali, Colombia, from October 21. Many due to attend, including myself, wonder whether the promise made to “halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030” is achievable.

Initial signs are not promising. For starters, no international targets for biodiversity have ever been met.

Only a handful of countries, including China, Canada and France, have submitted new national biodiversity plans demonstrating how they will implement the promises made two years ago. Most countries, including the UK, (that’s more than 80% in total) haven’t submitted their full plans.

Countries can also submit updates for the 23 targets listed in the framework. The UK and others have submitted targets such as promising to reduce the impact of pollution on nature and ensuring that 30% of land is effectively protected in line with the framework.

But crucial questions remain about how those goals will be reached. To make Cop16 effective, three things need to happen.

1. Decide on a plan

When delegates gather in Cali, questions of implementation will be front and centre of the negotiations. The first challenge is that the approach for monitoring progress on all 23 targets – including issues such as improving access to nature in cities, reducing harmful subsidies and restoring 30% of degraded ecosystems – is yet to be agreed.

For some, the approach that has been developed so far lacks ambition in crucial areas. Indicators suggested for monitoring progress on reducing the impacts of consumption on nature remain very weak for example. For others, it may prove too challenging.

For example, countries with limited access to data might not be able to track alien species or assess how critical services provided by nature to make societies more resilient might be affected by climate change. Getting agreement at the Cop16 negotiations will be vital in order to hold countries to account as the 2030 deadline set to achieve all of the targets approaches.

2. Find the funds

Another crucial issue is funding: who will pay for the action required? The global biodiversity framework fund (GBFF) was established in 2023 to provide financial support.

Yet so far, it has only attracted contributions of around US$230 billion (£176 billion) from a small group of countries including Canada, the UK, Germany, Japan and Spain. Leaders gathering in Cali, and especially those from developing countries, are calling for more funding and for greater control over how it is allocated.

The next UN biodiversity conference will be held in Cali, Columbia from October 21 to November 1.
Tudoran Andrei/Shutterstock

3. Make biodiversity matter

A third debate will decide how best to ensure that biodiversity action is mainstreamed across governments, businesses and communities.

In Montreal, countries agreed to make sure that the impacts on nature were considered across different policy areas (such as building new roads or developing new energy sources) and in economic sectors, from fishing to agriculture and mining to tech.

They agreed that groups most likely to be affected by the loss of nature, including Indigenous people and local communities, women and youth, should help make key decisions. While targets such as protecting 30% of the land and sea for nature are crucial, progress will only happen if nature is put on everyone’s bottom line.

Delivering real change

The urgent need for action is not lost on delegates gathering in Cali. There is a real risk that the promise countries made in Montreal to deliver “transformative action by governments, and regional and local authorities, with the involvement of all of society” won’t be met.

But there are some hopeful signs of transformative change to conserve and restore nature and ensure its sustainable use.

Take, for example, the Tree Equity Partnership in Detroit, US. This partnership between the city, US-based charity American Forests and the local non-profit charity Greening of Detroit aims to plant 75,000 trees. This will create places of beauty, biodiversity and climate resilience in underserved neighbourhoods and generate 300 new jobs in the city.

In Pakistan, the Living Indus initiative is an umbrella organisation that has identified 25 projects involving local and regional governments, businesses and communities working together to restore the ecological health of the Indus river.

Businesses are also calling for real change. More than 170 investors have signed a pledge developed by a coalition of financial institutions called the Finance for Biodiversity Foundation to take action for nature across their portfolios.

New science-based standards are being developed to drive the mainstreaming of biodiversity action through their companies and associated supply chains. Cop16 is expected to see increased interest from the private sector and a focus on tackling climate change and biodiversity together.

These projects are successfully tackling the root causes of global biodiversity loss. They integrate solutions and deal with social and environmental issues – poverty and exploitation, climate risks and land use change. Tackling these problems is just as vital as the need for sustainable production and consumption plus investment that works for, not against, nature.

Projects such as these are the ones that give scientists and conservationists like me – and organisations like WWF that I work with – hope. We want to see more projects that take action on nature, climate and social justice together. If Cop16 can make even a small step in this direction, the world will be travelling towards making real progress by the end of this decade.

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Every year the Spanish ministry of culture awards prizes for different artistic disciplines. From next year onwards, the country’s national bullfighting award will be withdrawn. The current Spanish minister of culture, the Barcelona-born Green politician Ernest Urtasun, supports the prohibition of what has long been known as Spain’s “national fiesta”.

At the awards ceremony held at the Reina Sofia Museum last week, the minister refused to applaud this year’s winner for “sustained excellence in bullfighting”, Julián López El Juli, the recently retired Madrid-born matador. El Juli retorted to the slight by holding out his hand and publicly calling out the minister’s lack of respect as evidence that he was unfit to hold office.

Bullfighting predates football as a form of mass entertainment, and has been a source of inspiration for artists and intellectuals for centuries. It still has its followers in the present day, but young urban Spaniards are increasingly sensitive to the undeniable cruelty involved. Bullfighting was banned in Catalonia in 2011. Bullfights, known as corridas, are still staged in much of the rest of Spain, but it can be career suicide for artists, politicians or intellectuals to be associated with them.

So I, like many in Spain and the Basque Country, didn’t expect the jury of the 72nd San Sebastian Film Festival to award its highest accolade, the Concha de Oro (Golden Shell), to a bullfighting documentary. The director of Tardes de Soledad (Afternoons of Solitude) is Albert Serra, an iconoclastic filmmaker from Gerona, a fiercely pro-independence province of Catalonia.

The trailer for Tardes de Soledad.

For five years, Serra and his crew have been following the exploits of two rising stars with the ambition to become figuras, the term for that handful of elite matadors like El Juli, who appear on the most lucrative and prestigious bills.

Bullfighting and the screen arts have history in and beyond Spain. During cinema’s infancy, early filmmakers the Lumière brothers filmed matadors in Madrid. At annual village fairs, Spaniards would pay to enter a tent and watch recordings of professional corridas. The Valencian Vicente Blasco Ibánez’s 1908 novel Blood and Sand has a strong claim to being the earliest literary text to be written with a future film adaptation in mind.

In 1951, Hollywood actress Ava Gardner (a close friend of Ernest Hemingway, author of bullfighting novel Death in the Afternoon) starred alongside Catalan matador Mario Cabré in Pandora and the Flying Dutchman, which featured corridas in Gerona (the city’s bullring was demolished in 2006). Spanish television started broadcasting bullfights in 1956. Nearly 70 years later, Movistar Spain shut down its dedicated bullfighting channel in March 2023.

Oscar-winning writer and director Pedro Almodóvar – who received a lifetime achievement award at San Sebastian this year – has his Madrid offices close to the world’s premiere bullring, Las Ventas. In 1986 he portrayed the world of bullfighting in Matador, starring a very young Antonio Banderas, later returning to the subject in Talk to Her (2002).

This film, which won Almodovar the Oscar for best screenplay, contains scenes in which a female matador is gored in the picturesque bullring in Aranjuez. The British Board of Film Censorship insisted on cuts, and Almodóvar faced legal challenges from animal rights groups. According to Spanish law, corridas are permitted and can be filmed. The legal situation becomes thornier if a bull is killed by a professional matador for the sole purposes of the event being captured on film.

The trailer for Talk to Her.

Documenting the glory and the horror

Nothing is staged for Serra’s documentary. He followed the Peruvian Andrés Roca Rey, a box-office phenomenon often dismissed by serious aficionados as a crass populist; and the more refined Pablo Aguado, a native of Seville.

Serra connected better with Roca Rey, capturing his fears and solitude in an often hostile professional environment. Pay-for-view television channel Canal+ set a new gold standard for broadcasting bullfights with technical panache. Serra makes no attempt to replicate this labour. Placing the camera at the eye level of the bull and the matador results in a far more graphic and gruesome spectacle.

The Catalan filmmaker is amongst world cinema’s masters of sound design, and the audience is privy to the bull’s breathing as well as conversations between the matador and his team once the afternoon’s activities in the sand have come to a bloody conclusion.

Tardes de Soledad is likely to anger and unnerve aficionados and abolitionists alike. Industrial farming is arguably crueller than bullfighting, but recognising this fact is not automatically a defence of the “national fiesta”. It might just be that any hypothetical prohibition needs to framed alongside a wider reassessment of our relationship with, and responsibility to, non-human creatures.

Some abolitionists suggest that, even though bulls are sold for meat afterwards, it is death and torture being employed for entertainment that renders corridas so problematic. Psychological desensitisation is a real risk, especially when children are in attendance.

Bullfighting has a long and storied history in Spain, and was an early form of mass entertainment.
Peter Eastland / Alamy

Aficionados claim bullfighting is a rare opportunity to address our own mortality in a society in which death and nature are increasingly kept at a distance. Almodóvar’s pristinely shot bullfighting scenes nevertheless show how ritualised beauty – the vivid stylised outfits, the music, the choreography and the architecture – often divert attention from the blood.

Serra’s harrowing footage might even shake some enthusiasts out of their complacency. Can so much animal and human suffering be justified in the name of an ancestral art? Conversely, Tardes de Soledad registers the poetry, pain and pathos of bullfighting in and beyond the arena. Dialogues between Roca Rey and his entourage establish a new benchmark for depicting the interior world of a matador, more unforgiving and empathetic than anything by Hemingway.

A rallying call at anti-bullfighting demonstrations is: “It’s not culture, it’s torture.” Serra’s documentary warrants the Concha de Oro for showing the terms are not mutually exclusive.

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The Nuer are a large pastoralist community living in western Ethiopia and South Sudan in east Africa. They rely on livestock keeping and have special beliefs and customs about how to live with nature. These are passed down from parents to children through the telling of stories.

Uncommonly for east African pastoralists, the Nuer live in an expansive, low-lying floodplain. This Gambella region is shaped by the convergence of several rivers originating in the Ethiopian highlands. Its wetlands and lush greenery offer a unique habitat that supports both the Nuer and a wide variety of birds and other wildlife. The people have a centuries-old cultural connection with the local biodiversity.

The Nuer are cattle herders who live in a region with many rivers.
Peter Martell/AFP/Getty Images

Our collaborative study involved Ethiopian and European scientists from diverse fields (such as ornithology, ethno-ornithology, biodiversity and nature conservation). We conducted interviews and 15 group discussions with Nuer people to understand their interaction with and knowledge of birds. The study included two districts and 400 households. We found a significant and seldom studied relationship with birds, which serve a range of purposes in Nuer life.

Our study not only highlights the deep spiritual and cultural ties between the Nuer people and the avian world. It also underscores the importance of incorporating traditional ecological knowledge into contemporary conservation efforts.

The Nuer’s relationship to birds can be a valuable model for sustainable human-wildlife interactions. It can contribute to the conservation of bird diversity and promote a more harmonious coexistence between humans and nature.

The role of birds in Nuer life

Ethiopia, known for its rich biodiversity, is home to 821 bird species and over 80 indigenous ethnic groups. Among these, the Nuer community stands out for its unique admiration of birds, viewing them as sacred beings.

The Nuer use three interchangeable names for birds: gaatkuoth (sacred children of God), kuoth (bearers of spirit), and diit (symbols of human twins). These terms reflect spiritual beliefs and also influence cultural practices, such as naming twins after birds. This Nuer tradition connects the prolific nature of birds to human fertility.

In our study, participants recognised 71 bird species as having unique cultural roles. The birds that live near Nuer villages have seven distinct uses. Ten species are used as bushmeat. Five are for traditional medicine. Eight are fish indicators – by meticulously observing species like the African fish eagle, African pygmy kingfisher, pied kingfisher or malachite kingfisher, people can identify areas with high fish populations.

A flock of birds fly from the branches of trees in South Sudan.
Ashraf Shazly/AFP/Getty Images

Seven birds serve as omens – they signal potential dangers like the presence of wild animals. Three are used to create protective amulets. Three are used to indicate the change of seasons – for instance the return of migratory western yellow wagtails is a reliable sign that the sunny, dry season will be replacing the rainy, wet season. And 45 are hailed for their aesthetic beauty, often linked with a sense of place. The vibrant plumage, melodious songs and elegant flight patterns of birds like the black-crowned crane, blue-naped mousebird and purple heron create a spectacle that significantly enhances Nuer life.

This intricate knowledge of birds is communal: over 90% of participants agreed on the uses of these bird species.

Indigenous knowledge and sustainability

One of the most striking things about the Nuer community is the sustainable practice embedded within their traditional systems. When birds are used as amulets, for example, only small, non-invasive parts of the bird, like feathers, are utilised. These are fashioned into necklaces or bracelets believed to offer protection from dangers like diseases. The birds are not killed or significantly harmed, which preserves their populations.

A Nuer village.
fabio lamanna/Getty

There are strict limits on when and how birds can be used in Nuer society. The use of birds as bushmeat or for making traditional medicine is carefully controlled by elders and within family structures. Hunting is typically allowed only during severe food shortages. It’s often restricted to those in dire need, such as impoverished households. Families with a history of twins, who hold birds in special reverence, are not allowed to hunt them.

These cultural practices help prevent overexploitation of bird species, conserving them for future generations. They ensure that the use of natural resources remains sustainable.

It’s important to raise awareness about the conservation of birds, which are used for various purposes across Africa. Traditional medicine, bushmeat and the making of amulets has a direct impact on bird populations.

Nuer traditions balance human needs with the preservation of bird life. Our study therefore offers a compelling case and model for the conservation of avian and indigenous cultural diversity in Africa.

Why this matters

It is, however, essential to acknowledge that the Nuer’s cultural practices are not immune to the pressures of modern society. As globalisation and development continue to encroach on traditional lands, the Nuer people will face increasing challenges in maintaining their sustainable practices.

Threats such as habitat loss, climate change and illegal wildlife trading could jeopardise bird populations. In recent decades, the expansion of large-scale agriculture in the Gambella region has emerged as a driver of habitat loss and wildlife decline.

A Nuer boy watches a flock of migrating birds.
Peter Martell/AFP/Getty Images

This makes the Nuer people’s traditional conservation practices even more relevant to future generations. By recognising and valuing their knowledge and practices, we can learn valuable lessons for broader conservation efforts.

Indigenous territories, despite their relatively small size, often harbour extraordinary biodiversity. Recognising this, the United Nations’ Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework places indigenous-occupied areas among conservation priority areas at the forefront of biodiversity preservation strategies.

It is crucial to help the Nuer community adapt to changing circumstances while preserving their cultural heritage and ensuring the sustainability of bird biodiversity.

Changkuoth Puok Diet, a lecturer at Gambella University in Ethiopia, contributed to this article. Läs mer…

The incoming president of Mozambique faces an array of interconnected problems deeply rooted in historical, socioeconomic and political dynamics. He must balance meeting immediate needs with long-term structural change.

The 9 October 2024 general election was Mozambique’s seventh since multiparty elections were introduced in 1994. The results are expected to be announced within two weeks from the poll date. International media reports indicate that the ruling Frelimo and its presidential candidate Daniel Chapo are poised for a landslide victory.

This is likely to be confirmed by the electoral commission even though local media have pointed to widespread and brazen ballot stuffing and fake observers, among other irregularities, in favour of Frelimo.

Frelimo has been in power since independence in 1975.

Can the resource-rich but impoverished nation of 35 million expect a redirection of policies and strategies under Chapo to address its multifaceted crises?

Chapo (47) was born after independence and promises to act with integrity. But the old guard placed him in power to protect and promote their interests.

Mozambique’s crises stem largely from systemic corruption under Frelimo. It has prioritised political elites over national welfare. Its decades of mismanagement, embezzlement and patronage have left institutions weak and unable to address pressing social and economic issues.

The country is fragmented. The government has neglected the development of inclusive, accountable governance and equitable infrastructure. Regional disparities are the result. This is especially so in Cabo Delgado province, where disenfranchised citizens have become vulnerable to extremist groups.

This lack of unity and long-term planning has created a fragile state unable to withstand mounting internal and external pressures.

As a Mozambican social scientist and human rights specialist, I have spent my adult life wrestling with my country’s complex economic, social, cultural and political dynamics.

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Mozambique stands at a critical point. The new president must confront the deep-rooted challenges with determination and comprehensive reforms.

In my view, the new leader faces nine key challenges. These are a deep economic crisis, an Islamic insurgency in the north, climate change, drug trafficking, unemployment, corruption, poor infrastructure, kidnappings and unpaid public sector salaries.

Economic crisis

Mozambique’s economy has deteriorated, primarily because of structural imbalances and a dependence on extractive industries. GDP growth has declined sharply, from 7% in 2014 to 1.8% in 2023.

Slower growth has resulted in over 62% of Mozambicans living in poverty.

A public debt crisis was worsened by the “hidden debt scandal”: the discovery in 2016 of US$2 billion in previously undisclosed debts the government had guaranteed without the knowledge of parliament.

This has limited the state’s capacity to invest in education, health and sanitation.

Economic revival must be accompanied by targeted interventions to promote inclusive growth. All Mozambicans must benefit from economic activities to alleviate poverty.

Insurgency

Since 2017, extremist groups have used local grievances and regional disenfranchisement to destabilise northern Mozambique. Over 4,000 people have died. Nearly a million have been displaced.

The conflict is rooted in socio-economic inequalities, made worse by the extraction of natural gas and rubies. Global and local actors compete for control.

The new president’s role in mediating this crisis requires nuance. He must address the historical marginalisation of Cabo Delgado while balancing military and developmental responses.

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He must also write a new chapter in the country’s deplorable human rights record. This is marked by widespread violations of the right to life, physical integrity, freedom from arbitrary detention, and freedoms of expression, assembly and the press.

Climate change crisis

Climate change intersects with Mozambique’s vulnerabilities. The country has been repeatedly struck by increasingly devastating severe cyclones, such as Idai and Kenneth in 2019.

Deforestation has made it more fragile, reducing its capacity to mitigate flood and erosion risks.

The new president will need to put in place policies that incorporate mitigation and adaptation strategies. He will also need to secure multilateral cooperation.

Drug trafficking

Drug trafficking networks have entrenched themselves. Porous borders, weak governance structures and endemic corruption have made Mozambique a corridor for heroin and cocaine trafficking.

The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime estimates that US$100 million worth of heroin passes through Mozambique annually. This fuels informal economies that sustain political patronage networks.

Tackling the problem requires stronger state institutions. It also requires regional and global collaboration to disrupt the transnational flow of narcotics.

Unemployment

Joblessness stands at over 70%, affecting youth in particular. Youth disenfranchisement risks perpetuating cycles of poverty, social instability and potential radicalisation.

Policies promoting vocational training and entrepreneurship are essential. So is investment in labour-intensive sectors, such as agriculture and manufacturing.

Corruption

Pervasive corruption erodes public trust and stifles economic innovation. New efforts to combat corruption must go beyond superficial reforms. They must uproot the power structures that sustain these systems.

Poor infrastructure

Infrastructure is in disrepair. Urban roads are crumbling, public services are inadequate and electricity blackouts are frequent. Rural regions lack basic services such as clean water and healthcare.

The next president will need to launch an ambitious infrastructure overhaul to improve living conditions and stimulate economic growth.

Kidnappings

Kidnappings, especially targeting the wealthy and business people, have created widespread fear and instability. The crime disrupts business operations and deters foreign investment, further harming economic growth.

The high-profile nature of kidnappings suggests collusion between criminal networks and law enforcement as well as inefficiencies in the justice system.

The persistence of kidnappings reflects broader governance issues. These include limited state capacity to respond effectively to organised crime.

Unpaid public servants

Delays in salary payments for public servants have worsened economic and social problems. The delays reduce public workers’ purchasing power. This has affected household consumption and local economies.

Morale among employees is sapped, harming productivity and eroding trust in government institutions.

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The new president must make public sector reforms. This includes auditing finances, improving revenue collection, enforcing fiscal discipline, promoting merit-based appointments, implementing probity laws, strengthening anti-corruption bodies, and diversifying the economy.

The future of Mozambique rests on the ability of its next leader to address these profound and intertwined crises. It’s a huge task.

Whoever it is will have to break from the Frelimo mould, reverse the damage done and set the country on a new path of clean governance, peace and inclusive economic growth. Läs mer…

Nigerians took to the streets in August 2024 to voice their frustration at a series of government policies. These policies had been ostensibly designed to make Nigeria more attractive for outside investment.

The removal of fuel subsidies and the removal of the economic peg between the Nigerian naira and the US dollar have sent the Nigerian economy into a tailspin.

Many Nigerians rely on government subsidies to make ends meet. The economic policy changes have resulted in a big rise in inflation, adding to the challenges for ordinary Nigerians.

As economic conditions have worsened, the prominence of government corruption has risen. Protests and riots have exploded in the streets across the country in the form of #EndBadGovernance protests that call out government graft and poor governance.

Does government corruption drive protests and social movements? While some scholars have argued that it does, others have argued that corruption is often a catch-all term for frustration over broad economic and democratic grievances. Others have noted that in some cases, increased perceptions of corruption correlate with less protest.

These contradictory results reveal an important puzzle: why does corruption only sometimes seem to generate mass uprisings? If, for example, corruption is enough to generate citizen uprisings, then why do we only rarely see unified anti-police protests in countries like Nigeria, where police corruption is rampant?

I argue that one key to this puzzle is the way different types of corruption are associated with increased or decreased protest mobilisation.

I am a political scientist whose work focuses in part on African social movements and issues of corruption. I approach this by merging large statistical models with political psychological approaches.

I conducted research in 2021 on different types of corruption shaping protests. I found that elite corruption had the power to mobilise protest. But that other forms of corruption – such as corruption in the police force – were less likely to lead people to take protest action.

The implication of my findings is that anti-corruption protests are an imperfect signal for understanding everyday corruption experiences. The fact that people aren’t protesting doesn’t mean there’s nothing to complain about.

Why elite corruption sparks protest

To explain why corruption sometimes corresponds with protest movements and other times does not, I think it is useful to consider two types of corruption. Elite corruption refers to forms of graft and venality performed by political elites who seek to either enrich themselves or reshape the political system to their advantage.

Police corruption refers to acts of self-enrichment or abuse perpetrated by police officers, often during traffic stops or in the process of police procedure.

My findings show that citizens are generally more likely to mobilise in response to elite corruption than police corruption. Why?

First, elite corruption tends to be intertwined with macro-level economic crises and scandals.

Second, elite corruption provides a universal point of focus for protesters across an entire nation, rather than the highly localised experiences of police and bureaucratic graft.

Finally, anger over police corruption may be suppressed by the safety concerns associated with demonstrating against armed security forces.

I tested this argument using two methods. First, drawing from a 2017 household survey experiment that I conducted in five Nigerian states, I examined whether exposure to vignettes describing either elite corruption or police corruption shaped a respondent’s self-reported willingness to participate in a protest.

The elite corruption vignettes included self-dealing and system-changing forms of corruption perpetrated by political elites. The police corruption vignette focused on the solicitation of bribes and unfair detention of citizens by the police. I then asked respondents:

Many Nigerians join groups that engage in protests, strikes, or demonstrations. Now I would like to ask you about how willing you would be to join a protest or demonstration.

Respondents were able to select a response between 1 (“not at all willing”) to 5 (“very willing / I already do”).

I found that individuals who received the elite corruption vignette were statistically more likely to state that they would join a protest or demonstration.

I then expanded this analysis via a statistical regression that measured whether perceptions of elite and police corruption (sourced from the Afrobarometer dataset) correlated with different levels of observed conflict (sourced from the Social Conflict Analysis Database).

I thought it was best to test whether the results of my survey experiment, which capture a moment in time, reflected a broader reality, or whether it was just a fluke.

Using the Afrobarometer data, I identified regions where citizens expressed particularly high or low perceptions of elite and police corruption. Then, using the social conflict analysis data, I measured the number of protest events in those regions.

I found that while elite corruption perceptions were positively correlated with an increased number of observed protest events, police corruption perceptions were not.

Together, these methods suggest that it is not enough to argue that citizens will rise up against corrupt governments. Rather, the ways in which a government is corrupt matter.

Turning back to the August 2024 protests, one might ask: why now? Why did Nigerians spend ten days protesting against corruption when there had been rampant corruption for so long?

My research suggests that the nature of the corruption claims – specifically, anger over large-scale government graft – is what counts.

Recent developments seem to support this.

What’s changed

First, corruption perceptions have spiked. In 2021, Afrobarometer polled 1,600 Nigerians, asking them whether levels of corruption had risen, stayed the same, or decreased in the past year. At the time, just over 35% stated that corruption had “increased a lot”. One year later, that number had nearly doubled, jumping to just under 65%.

This drastic increase in perceived corruption reveals a broader lack of faith in the government and concern over the future of the country.

Second, tipping points help with mobilisation. The protests in early August arose as the financial crisis crystallised and as a series of economic policies brought into sharp relief the economic disparities between the rich and the poor.

The removal of fuel subsidies is a particularly touchy subject in Nigerian politics. In 2012, Nigerians took to the streets over the same issue, leading to a week-long “occupation” of major Nigerian cities by protesters.

Implications

Protests are a highly visible signal that citizens are frustrated; however, it is easy to overlook the possibility that citizens may be widely upset about a broad array of issues, but only willing to speak out in response to some of those issues.

There is a knock-on consequence to this; namely, that police corruption has a more direct effect on the lives of Nigerians than elite corruption, but often goes unaddressed. Läs mer…

Gangs and gang members arguably constitute fundamental lenses through which to think about and consider the world we live in. They need to be understood in a balanced and nuanced manner, however, that goes beyond stereotyping and vilification. For the past five years, the GANGS project, a European Research Council-funded project led by Dennis Rodgers, has been studying global gang dynamics.

Among the project’s various activities, researchers collected 31 gang member life histories from 23 countries around the world, to help us better understand the motivations, drivers, and events that can shape gang members’ choices and trajectories. Taken together, the stories offer a panorama of triumph and defeat, of ruin and redemption, of discrimination and emancipation, and highlight the frequent persistence of human beings, even in the most difficult of circumstances. The 31 stories will be published in different forms – including as an Open Access edited volume with Bloomsbury Press, and in two journal special issues – over the coming years. In the meantime, this special series for The Conversation offers a preliminary selection, each illustrating a key issue that has emerged from GANGS project research.

Kieran Mitton tells us about the life of Gaz, a former Sierra Leonean gang member who became a poet and then a farmer. His remarkable trajectory is a testament to the way that gangster lives are by no means deterministic and that opportunities to leave the gang and change can present themselves in all sorts of ways at different moments in time.

Ellen Van Damme offers us a portrait of Jennifer, the first female Honduran gang leader. Her story illustrates the frequently gendered nature of gangs, and the way that machismo and patriarchy constrain Jennifer’s life, even as a gang leader, highlighting the frequently fundamentally masculine essence of street gangs.

Sally Atkinson-Sheppard worked closely with Sharif, who 10 years ago was her research assistant, to write the story of his journey from gang member in war-torn Bangladesh to human rights worker and advocate for street children’s rights today. His story is one of overcoming exceptional adversity and drawing on his past experiences to do good in the world today.

Steffen Jensen recounts the story of Marwan, whose life is in many ways a reflection of contemporary South African history, as he has had to navigate the violence of apartheid, prison, the Cape Flat drug wars, and more. Central to his narrative are the binary notions of damnation and redemption, with gangs frequently the sources of both at different points in his life, highlighting the different ways in which they can influence life trajectories.

Alistair Fraser and Angela Bartie present a portrait of 70-year-old Danny, a retired Glaswegian businessman who was a gang member in his youth, and that is based, uniquely, on interviews carried out over a 50-year period, in 1969, 2011, and 2022. They trace his changing self-reflexion about his past, highlighting how this mirrors the broader transformation of Glasgow from a “Mean City” in the 1950s to a thriving metropolis that was Europe’s Capital of Culture in 1990.

From a very young age, Soraya was involved in drug trafficking in the barrio Luis Fanor Hernández, a poor neighbourhood in Managua, the capital of Nicaragua, where Dennis Rodgers has worked for over 20 years. Known locally as “la Reina del Sur” (“the Queen of the South”), her story shows how rather than being empowering, her participation in the drugs trade reinforced forms of macho violence and patriarchal dynamics of domination. Läs mer…