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With the recent establishment of a new Social Investment Agency – described as a “driving project” for the government by Finance Minister Nicola Willis – it seems New Zealand has come full circle on this approach to social welfare.

First championed by then finance minister Bill English in 2015, social investment was rebranded “social wellbeing” by Labour-led governments between 2017 and 2023. But Willis signalled before last year’s election that its time had come again.

In a speech in 2022, she argued taxpayer money wasn’t being spent responsibly by the Labour administration, and that a targeted social investment approach was needed. During the 2023 election campaign, the National Party promised social investment would return.

Essentially, the policy involves using data to calculate which groups of people cost the government the most over a lifetime. Interventions aimed at reducing that cost are then targeted at those people. The idea is that early investment saves later social costs.

Right now, however, we don’t know the finer details of how Willis intends to implement the policy. But we do know how it worked in the past – and what lessons might be drawn from its earlier, short-lived implementation.

An actuarial approach to welfare

In New Zealand, the idea of social investment can be traced back to the fifth National government which held office for three terms between 2008 and 2017.

In September 2015, English outlined his approach in a Treasury lecture, explaining how the government had commissioned Australian actuary firm Taylor Fry to calculate the lifetime welfare cost to the state of people on benefits.

Typically, actuaries use statistics to calculate risk for insurance companies, information that is then used to set premiums. English said the Taylor Fry calculations would identify which beneficiary “is going to cost us the most money”.

The answer was single parents receiving a benefit. Consequently, they were deemed most in need of direct government intervention, including giving an approved mentor control of their money.

According to English’s version of social investment, data enabled the government to calculate the “forward liability” of its citizens, and target interventions accordingly.

This is not the only way to define social investment, however, and other countries often adopt a more universal approach. For example, European models tend to focus on social equality and inclusivity rather than targeting specific groups.

English’s model focused on applying benefit sanctions and conditions. The aim was to “reduce the lifetime public cost of the welfare-recipient population, thereby offering fiscal returns-on-investment, absorbed into public coffers”.

A Social Investment Unit was created in 2016, followed by a Social Investment Agency in 2017. This was a standalone agency providing advice across government departments.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis: social investment is a ‘driving project’ for the National-led government.
Getty Images

No accounting for structural disadvantage

Official thinking about social investment predates the establishment of the unit and agency. In 2015, the second of two reports produced by an expert panel review of the Child, Youth and Family agency (now Oranga Tamariki) recommended a new child-centred social investment agency be created.

The report’s analysis and advice focused on intervening early to reduce the risk of vulnerable children growing up to be beneficiaries, teen parents, substance users or prisoners (among other negative outcomes).

It was suggested these potential future behaviours almost always stemmed from the actions (or inactions) of parents. Māori were identified as being especially costly due to their over-representation in child protection statistics. They were described as a “forward liability associated with poor outcomes”.

The proposed response was early intervention and social investment. That would include the removal of very young children from whānau/families where they were perceived to be at high risk. The reasoning was that the predicted damage might then never eventuate, thereby saving taxpayer dollars.

As my doctoral research found, no consideration in the report was given to the effects of systemic conditions such as poverty and the legacies of colonisation.

Costs to the state

The social investment model, with its emphasis on financial liability to the state, became a major influence on Oranga Tamariki’s practice.

It led to an increase in the early removal of tamariki Māori, especially babies, from their birth families – as demonstrated in the 2019 Hawkes Bay “uplift” case, where social workers attempted to remove a Māori baby soon after birth.

In 2017, the new Labour government promised a review of the Social Investment Agency, renaming it the Social Wellbeing Agency in 2020. The social development minister at the time, Carmel Sepuloni, said the agency would have a more holistic approach. Data would be only one of a number of considerations when delivering social services.

But with the agency now reverting to its original name, the idea of using data to guide early intervention seems to be central again. It’s unclear, however, whether the actuarial approach of Bill English’s earlier model will return.

Nicola Willis does seem to be aware of the criticism of the English-era model’s apparent focus on fiscal risk and returns. She has stressed that measuring other outcomes is also important.

As yet, though, there is no indication the policy’s highly targeted approach to welfare will account for structural factors such as colonisation and poverty.

Given the government’s drive to remove any special policy considerations based on te Tiriti of Waitangi/Treaty of Waitangi, the risk remains that some Māori will again come to be viewed as a “cost” to the state. Läs mer…

When Canada legalized recreational cannabis use on Oct. 17, 2018, there were concerns about the potential impacts. Would it trigger greater cannabis use, boost economic growth or otherwise affect the country’s health, safety and finances?

Patients already using cannabis legally for medical purposes were especially concerned. They worried that recreational legalization might prompt physicians to stop authorizing cannabis treatments. Or that cannabis producers would abandon the small medical market to pursue the larger recreational one.

After recreational legalization, the medical cannabis system did see declines. Between June 2018 and December 2022, the number of registered patients fell 32 per cent, while product sales fell 29 per cent. Some people thought the medical cannabis system had failed or become obsolete.

As someone who studies the business aspects of cannabis legalization, I wondered about these issues, too. It wasn’t clear how patients, producers or health-care providers would react to recreational legalization. Legal medical use itself had only become accessible a few years earlier.

Accessing medical cannabis

Hundreds of people line up at a government cannabis store on Oct. 17, 2018 in Montréal as the legal sale of cannabis begins in Canada.
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz

Canada began allowing medical use of cannabis in 1999. But it remained difficult to get until regulations changed during 2014-15.

The new rules allowed any physician to authorize patients to use cannabis. Those patients could then register to buy products online from licensed cannabis producers. Online orders could not exceed a 30-day supply.

(Instead of buying cannabis products, some patients grew their own plants instead. My research hasn’t examined that.)

Under this new procedure, the number of patients registering to buy cannabis soared. They grew from 7,914 in June 2014 to 330,344 in June 2018, nearly one per cent of Canada’s population.

However, registration levels differed greatly between provinces. In June 2018, registrations represented almost three per cent of Alberta’s population, versus only 0.1 per cent of Québec’s.

Interestingly, less than half of registrants bought medical cannabis in any given month. Perhaps they simply didn’t need the full dose. Or maybe they found it too expensive, inconvenient or ineffective.

June 2018 was also when the federal government passed its new cannabis legislation. The law took effect in October 2018, when recreational sales of dried cannabis and cannabis oils began. After initial product shortages were overcome, recreational cannabis sales grew rapidly as more stores opened, even during the COVID-19 pandemic. Consumer choice expanded in December 2019 when edibles and vapes became available.

This is where my new study came in. I analyzed government data on patients’ use of Canada’s medical cannabis system between 2017 and 2022. This included how many patients registered, how often they placed orders, and how much cannabis they bought.

Evolving system usage

I found that as soon as parliament passed the new cannabis law, medical registrations began slowing down, despite recreational legalization still being four months away.

But the response differed noticeably between provinces. For example, registrations kept growing steadily in Québec but plummeted rapidly in Alberta. Other provinces were in between.

My data doesn’t say why those changes occurred. Perhaps Alberta, with its copious cannabis clinics, had many patients only mildly interested in using cannabis medically. Conversely, maybe Québec was still catching up with other provinces on medical use.

Cannabis patient registrations per 10,000 people in Alberta, Ontario and Québec, 2017-22.
Calculated by author from Health Canada data.

When recreational sales started in October 2018, patient registrations seemed unaffected. Their average purchase sizes didn’t change either. But they bought medical cannabis slightly less often.

This might have been due to retail convenience. At that time, medical producers and recreational stores were selling similar products: dried cannabis and cannabis oils. So, perhaps some patients started topping up their supplies occasionally at recreational stores but saw no reason to leave the online medical system completely.

Average number of medical cannabis shipments per 100 registrations, 2017-22.
Calculated by author from Health Canada data

When edibles and other processed products began selling in December 2019, registrations dropped further. But the patients who remained bought medical cannabis slightly more often and in increasingly larger quantities.

Product selections might explain this patient split. Perhaps producers with good edible products retained their customers and received larger orders from them. Conversely, maybe medical producers offering few edibles lost their patients to the recreational shops and their vast product assortments.

Average number of packages of cannabis per shipment, 2017-22.
Calculated by author from Health Canada data.

In summary, Canada’s medical cannabis system experienced big changes after recreational legalization. But it didn’t disappear.

Will other countries see similar outcomes if they allow recreational cannabis?

A changing world

In Europe, for example, The Netherlands is experimenting with recreational sales. Meanwhile, Germany has legalized recreational use but not retail sales. Will those countries experience medical cannabis changes like Canada did?

Conversely, some countries barely tolerate even medical use. It is very difficult to legally obtain medical cannabis in the United Kingdom, for example, much like in Canada 20 years ago. And France has only conducted a few medical cannabis trials.

Other countries, like Australia and New Zealand, are somewhere in between. They’re seeing rapid growth in legal medical use and illegal recreational use, but haven’t legalized recreationally. That’s roughly where Canada was 10 years ago.

Will Canada’s medical and recreational cannabis experiences make these other countries more interested in legalization, or less? Either way, I hope they can learn from our experiences as they chart their own cannabis paths. Läs mer…

The sight of a fireball streaking across the sky brings wonder and excitement to children and adults alike. It’s a reminder that Earth is part of a much larger and incredibly dynamic system.

Each year, roughly 17,000 of these fireballs not only enter Earth’s atmosphere, but survive the perilous journey to the surface. This gives scientists a valuable chance to study these rocky visitors from outer space.

Scientists know that while some of these these meteorites come from the Moon and Mars, the majority come from asteroids. But two separate studies published in Nature today have gone a step further. The research was led by Miroslav Brož from Charles University in the Czech Republic, and Michaël Marsset from the European Southern Observatory in Chile.

The papers trace the origin of most meteorites to just a handful of asteroid breakup events – and possibly even individual asteroids. In turn, they build our understanding of the events that shaped the history of the Earth – and the entire solar system.

What is a meteorite?

Only when a fireball reaches Earth’s surface is it called a meteorite. They are commonly designated as three types: stony meteorites, iron meteorites, and stony-iron meteorites.

Stony meteorites come in two types.

The most common are the chondrites, which have round objects inside that appear to have formed as melt droplets. These comprise 85% of all meteorites found on Earth.

Most are known as “ordinary chondrites”. They are then divided into three broad classes – H, L and LL – based on the iron content of the meteorites and the distribution of iron and magnesium in the major minerals olivine and pyroxene. These silicate minerals are the mineral building blocks of our solar system and are common on Earth, being present in basalt.

“Carbonaceous chondrites” are a distinct group. They contain high amounts of water in clay minerals, and organic materials such as amino acids. Chondrites have never been melted and are direct samples of the dust that originally formed the solar system.

The less common of the two types of stony meteorites are the so-called “achondrites”. These do not have the distinctive round particles of chondrites, because they experienced melting on planetary bodies.

An iron-nickel meteorite found near Fort Stockton, Texas, in 1952.
JPL/Smithsonian Institution

The asteroid belt

Asteroids are the primary sources of meteorites.

Most asteroids reside in a dense belt between Mars and Jupiter. The asteroid belt itself consists of millions of asteroids swept around and marshalled by the gravitational force of Jupiter.

The interactions with Jupiter can perturb asteroid orbits and cause collisions. This results in debris, which can aggregate into rubble pile asteroids. These then take on lives of their own.

It is asteroids of this type which the recent Hayabusa and Osiris-REx missions visited and returned samples from. These missions established the connection between distinct asteroid types and the meteorites that fall to Earth.

S-class asteroids (akin to stony meteorites) are found on the inner regions of the belt, while C-class carbonaceous asteroids (akin to carbonaceous chondrites) are more commonly found in the outer regions of the belt.

But, as the two Nature studies show, we can relate a specific meteorite type to its specific source asteroid in the main belt.

Artist’s graphic of the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.
NASA/McREL

One family of asteroids

The two new studies place the sources of ordinary chondrite types into specific asteroid families – and most likely specific asteroids. This work requires painstaking back-tracking of meteoroid trajectories, observations of individual asteroids, and detailed modelling of the orbital evolution of parent bodies.

The study led by Miroslav Brož reports that ordinary chondrites originate from collisions between asteroids larger than 30 kilometres in diameter that occurred less than 30 million years ago.

The Koronis and Massalia asteroid families provide appropriate body sizes and are in a position that leads to material falling to Earth, based on detailed computer modelling. Of these families, asteroids Koronis and Karin are likely the dominant sources of H chondrites. Massalia (L) and Flora (LL) families are by far the main sources of L- and LL-like meteorites.

The study led by Michaël Marsset further documents the origin of L chondrite meteorites from Massalia.

It compiled spectroscopic data – that is, characteristic light intensities which can be fingerprints of different molecules – of asteroids in the belt between Mars and Jupiter. This showed that the composition of L chondrite meteorites on Earth is very similar to that of the Massalia family of asteroids.

The scientists then used computer modelling to show an asteroid collision that occurred roughly 470 million years ago formed the Massalia family. Serendipitously, this collision also resulted in abundant fossil meteorites in Ordovician limestones in Sweden.

In determining the source asteroid body, these reports provide the foundations for missions to visit the asteroids responsible for the most common outerspace visitors to Earth. In understanding these source asteroids, we can view the events that shaped our planetary system. Läs mer…

Hay fever (or allergic rhinitis) is a long-term inflammatory condition that’s incredibly common. It affects about one-quarter of Australians.

Symptoms vary but can include sneezing, itchy eyes and a runny or blocked nose. Hay fever can also contribute to sinus and ear infections, snoring, poor sleep and asthma, as well as lower performance at school or work.

But many people didn’t have hay fever as a child, and only develop symptoms as a teenager or adult.

Here’s how a combination of genetics, hormones and the environment can lead to people developing hay fever later in life.

Remind me, what is hay fever?

Hay fever is caused by the nose, eyes and throat coming into contact with a substance to which a person is allergic, known as an allergen.

Common sources of outside allergens include airborne grass, weed or tree pollen, and mould spores. Pollen allergens can be carried indoors on clothes, and through open windows and doors.

Depending on where you live, you may be exposed to a range of pollen types across the pollen season, but grass pollen is the most common trigger of hay fever. In some regions the grass pollen season can extend from spring well into summer and autumn.

How does hay fever start?

Hay fever symptoms most commonly start in adolescence or young adulthood. One study found 7% of children aged six had hay fever, but that grew to 44% of adults aged 24.

Before anyone has hay fever symptoms, their immune system has already been “sensitised” to specific allergens, often allergens of grass pollen. Exposure to these allergens means their immune system has made a particular type of antibody (known as IgE) against them.

During repeated or prolonged exposure to an allergen source such as pollen, a person’s immune system may start to respond to another part of the same allergen, or another allergen within the pollen. Over time, these new allergic sensitisations can lead to development of hay fever and possibly other conditions, such as allergic asthma.

Grass pollen is the most common trigger of hay fever.
winyuu/Shutterstock

Why do some people only develop hay fever as an adult?

1. Environmental factors

Some people develop hay fever as an adult simply because they’ve had more time to become sensitised to specific allergens.

Migration or moving to a new location can also change someone’s risk of developing hay fever. This may be due to exposure to different pollens, climate and weather, green space and/or air quality factors.

A number of studies show people who have migrated from low- and middle-income countries to higher-income countries may be at a higher risk of developing hay fever. This may due to local environmental conditions influencing expression of genes that regulate the immune system.

2. Hormonal factors

Hormonal changes at puberty may also help drive the onset of hay fever. This may relate to sex hormones, such as oestrogen and progesterone, affecting histamine levels, immune regulation, and the response of cells in the lining of the nose and lower airways.

3. Genetic factors

Our genes underpin our risk of hay fever, and whether this and other related allergic disease persists.

For instance, babies with the skin condition eczema (known as atopic dermatitis) have a three times greater risk of developing hay fever (and asthma) later in life.

Having a food allergy in childhood is also a risk factor for developing hay fever later in life. In the case of a peanut allergy, that risk is more than 2.5 times greater.

What are the best options for treatment?

Depending on where you live, avoiding allergen exposures can be difficult. But pollen count forecasts, if available, can be useful. These can help you decide whether it’s best to stay inside to reduce your pollen exposure, or to take preventative medications.

You may also find alerts on thunderstorm asthma, where pollens combine with specific weather conditions to trigger breathing difficulties.

If you have mild, occasional hay fever symptoms, you can take non-drowsy antihistamines, which you can buy at the pharmacy.

However, for more severe or persistent symptoms, intranasal steroid sprays, or an intranasal spray containing a steroid with antihistamine, are the most effective treatments. However, it is important to use these regularly and correctly.

Allergen immunotherapy, also known as desensitisation, is an effective treatment for people with severe hay fever symptoms that can reduce the need for medication and avoiding allergens.

However, it involves a longer treatment course (about three years), usually with the supervision of an allergy or immunology specialist.

When should people see their doctor?

It is important to treat hay fever, because symptoms can significantly affect a person’s quality of life. A GP can:

recommend treatments for hay fever and can guide you to use them correctly
organise blood tests to confirm which allergen sensitisations (if any) are present, and whether these correlate with your symptoms
screen for asthma, which commonly exists with hay fever, and may require other treatments
arrange referrals to allergy or immunology specialists, if needed, for other tests, such as allergen skin prick testing, or to consider allergen immunotherapy if symptoms are severe.

More information about hay fever is available from the Australasian Society of Clinical Immunology and Allergy and Allergy & Anaphylaxis Australia. Läs mer…

Lucky Loser tells the story of Donald Trump’s less-than-stellar business career and how he was able to misrepresent it as a success.

It is written by New York Times investigative journalists, Russ Buettner and Susanne Craig. Both have won Pulitzer Prizes for earlier analyses of Trump. Another badge of honour is Trump sued them – and lost.

They are by no means the first writers to expose the Potemkin village that is Trump’s business empire. A telling insider account came from Trump’s niece, psychologist Mary Trump, who revealed the creator of Donald’s fortune was his father Fred.

Lucky Loser: How Donald Trump Squandered His Father’s Fortune and Created the Illusion of Success – Russ Buettner and Susanne Craig (Bodley Head)

Setting things straight

However, at more than 500 pages, including more than 40
pages of notes on sources, this new book is the most comprehensive rendering. It is detailed, clearly written and has been well-reviewed in the financial press and by economic historian Brad de Long.

The authors aim to draw on financial statements and interviews to “set straight Donald Trump’s chaotic onslaught of untruths and misdirection”.

A large part of the Trump mythology is the lie that he is a self-made billionaire. In the presidential debate with Hillary Clinton, Trump sought to downplay the contribution of his father, saying “my father gave me a very small loan”. The book reveals his father’s contribution, in today’s money, was around half a billion US dollars.

Trump’s wealth was inherited from his father, a point he downplayed in the presidential debate with Hilary Clinton.
Rick T Wilking/AAP

Trump’s first piece of luck was being born the son of hard-working, cautious and competent residential property developer Fred Trump, the son of a German immigrant. His second was that Fred’s eldest son did not have the ruthless drive to become Fred’s successor, and Fred did not consider his daughters as potential successors. So despite some characteristics that were the antithesis of his father, Donald became his heir.

The book describes Fred’s career in some detail. The first hundred pages are mostly about him. Once Fred stepped back, Trump diversified his father’s company to form what the authors term

an eclectic conglomerate untethered from any core competency.

Another piece of luck was been chosen to star in the reality television series The Apprentice, from which he made a lot of money, including from licensing deals, for the small amount of time he spent on it.

The producers of this series have a lot to answer for, as they wanted to present their star as the astute businessman they knew him not to be. As they said, it was “not a documentary”. But it enormously and misleadingly raised Trump’s profile.

Wins followed by losses

The authors describe how some of Trump’s ventures, such as the development of Trump Tower, went well as the Manhattan property market boomed. He also profited from some “greenmailing” (buying shares in a company with the stated or implied intention of taking it over and then selling the shares at a higher price), facilitated by exaggerated accounts in the media of his wealth.

But Trump used up much of the proceeds of his few successes covering his losses on a range of his other business ventures.

Among his notable failures was Trump University, where he paid A$37 million to settle lawsuits for fraud. Many other property projects, Scottish golf courses, Trump Ice bottled water and Trump Mortgage, never turned a profit. And the punters were not the only ones losing money in Trump casinos.

While he has fought to keep them secret, what has emerged from Trump’s tax returns are a series of huge losses.

A conundrum not really addressed in the book is why so many bankers were willing to lend to him.

Read more:
What would a second Trump presidency mean for the global economy?

The book concentrates on Trump’s career before the 2016 election, when the flawed US electoral system turned his almost 3 million vote loss on the popular vote into a win in the electoral college. As president, he disregarded conflicts of interest. As the authors note, parties wanting to influence the president could funnel money to him by booking blocks of rooms at his hotel.

After 81 million Americans voted to fire him in 2020, Trump’s businesses again performed poorly.

About half of Trump’s wealth comes from his right wing social media app, Truth Social. After a successful start, it is now losing money.
John Minchillo/AAP

Trump’s current wealth is estimated by Forbes at A$5.7 billion (less than it was a decade ago). But about half of this is from his majority stake in Truth Social, promoted as a right-wing alternative to Twitter. (Now, it could be said, an even more right-wing forum than X.) It has tiny and falling revenues and makes large losses. If Trump loses the election, its value will probably soon be close to zero. It is regarded as a “meme stock”.

Buettner and Craig conclude Trump “would have been better off betting on the sharemarket than on himself”. Analysis cited in The Economist in 2018 concluded that had Trump just put the money from his father into a sharemarket index fund he would have had A$2.9 billion in 2018. Given subsequent rises in the US stockmarket that would have grown to around A$5.9 billion by now, more than most estimates of his wealth.

Forbes reached a similar conclusion, as did De Long and US political commentator Professor Robert Reich. The self-described business genius destroyed rather than created value.

A poor tycoon and a poor president

This business record of mismanaging an inheritance is reflected in Trump’s economic performance as president. He inherited the world’s largest economy from Obama. By the end of his term it was more than 10% smaller than China’s economy. Historians rank him one of the worst performing presidents on economic management (and much else). The public gave him the lowest approval ratings during his presidential term.

Trump has indeed been a “lucky loser”. But if this deeply flawed man is returned to the presidency, the world will be an unlucky loser.

Read more:
From mass deportations to huge tariff hikes, here’s what Trump’s economic program would do to the US and Australia Läs mer…

As the latest global biodiversity summit gets underway in Colombia, finance for the conservation and restoration of nature is one of the key themes of negotiations.

Global wildlife populations have shrunk by an average of 73% in the past 50 years, according to the 2024 Living Planet report. Consequently, momentum is growing worldwide to deliver new nature markets, such as biodiversity credits, to unlock new sources of funding.

Basically, nature markets are systems of exchange that match demand for nature regeneration with a supply of nature-positive projects.

But this creates risks, as well as opportunities, for Indigenous peoples. Without due care for data sovereignty, Indigenous communities may lose out yet again.

Nature markets could enable Indigenous peoples to fulfill their duties of guardianship. But such markets could also forge a new form of colonialism, including enclosure and appropriation of habitats and species that Indigenous peoples have traditional connections to.

Efforts to prevent deforestation have at times displaced Indigenous people.
Mario Tama/Getty Images

This can occur overtly through formalisation of property rights over species, ecosystems and associated lands or waters. For example, efforts to reduce emissions from deforestation (REDD+) in developing countries have been troubled by instances where Indigenous communities were dispossessed from ancestral lands, alienated from place-based traditions or excluded from the commercial benefits of carbon trading.

The current surge for nature markets is attentive to these risks, with international commitments to avoid such mistakes. Yet the processes of colonialism can be less overt and more insidious.

Indigenous data

One neglected area is Indigenous data. This relates to traditional and cultural information, population data, oral histories and ancestral knowledge relating to the environment and natural resources.

If care is not taken with Indigenous data, there are serious risks of reproducing colonialist patterns of exploitation.

Data represents reality. Data helps decision makers to know whether their interventions are effective, even when they are far away from the ecosystems being protected or restored.

If data are accurate, authentic and timely, a funder does not need to set foot in a remote habitat to know whether its carbon stock or native species abundance are improving or declining.

Biodiversity credits represent one way to operationalise a nature market. They are basically a vehicle for data. The emerging methodologies are bundles of metrics and indicators that track biodiversity and ecological function.

Biodiversity credits use metrics and indicators that track ecological function.
Renee Raroa, CC BY-SA

The data enable credit holders to make credible claims of biodiversity uplift, or avoided biodiversity loss, as a consequence of credit sales.

As a representation of ecological reality, data are at least one step removed from the habitats and species they represent. This opens up the potential for nature markets to rely on the exchange of verifiable data, without the need to commodify nature itself, and therefore impinge on the ownership rights of Indigenous communities.

However, data are not free from such considerations. To divert data into a system of market exchange raises a different but related set of concerns about ownership, benefit and sovereignty.

The rise of Indigenous data sovereignty

Indigenous data sovereignty is the right of Indigenous peoples to govern the collection, ownership and application of data about Indigenous communities, peoples, lands and resources. It relates to data produced by and about Indigenous peoples and the environments they have relationships with.

Nature and people are precious, so data that represent nature and people are imbued with that preciousness. As Māori practitioner Ngapera Riley has written:

Data is a taonga (treasure). It’s something that people gift us, and that we gift to others as we go about our daily lives.

In te ao Māori, data come in many forms. This includes whakataukī (proverbs), moteatea (chants), whaikorero (oratory), maramataka (calendar), whakapapa (genealogies), pūrākau (stories) and increasingly digital forms.

Consequently, we must take great care in how data are accessed, shared, stored and used. This is especially critical in a system of market exchange. The dominant markets of today are profit-driven, creating incentives for appropriation and exploitation.

Sovereignty means power

Indigenous peoples are conscious that, while there are risks in data and knowledge sharing, there are also opportunities. Indigenous data and knowledge is a living and evolving system, which can contribute to effective responses to environmental challenges, including the protection and regeneration of biodiversity.

The principles of Indigenous data governance emerged from deliberations about how to protect Indigenous sovereignty when sharing knowledge and data for academic research. These CARE principles hold that Indigenous data should be governed for collective benefit, authority to control, responsibility and ethics.

This is critically important in ecological research, which too often neglects duties relating to data about natural ecosystems and the people who live within them.

It is troubling that the recognition of Indigenous data sovereignty is largely lacking from the discussion of nature markets so far. Unless Indigenous data sovereignty is upheld, the legitimacy of nature markets will likely be irreversibly tarnished.

This is why, in a recent Biodiversity Credits Alliance discussion paper, we included Indigenous data sovereignty as a risk to be identified, understood and managed.

But Indigenous data sovereignty is more than a risk: it is a source of power. It is a right to self-determination, to choose how data are used and their value is distributed. By ensuring this right, nature markets might deliver on their promise of inclusive, sustainable prosperity. Läs mer…

Islands have long intrigued explorers and scientists. These isolated environments serve as natural laboratories for understanding how species evolve and adapt.

Islands are also centres of species diversity. It has long been speculated that islands support exceptionally high amounts of global biodiversity, but the true extent was unknown until now.

In world-first research published in Nature today, my colleagues and I counted and mapped the diversity of plant life on Earth’s islands. We found 21% of the world’s total plant species are endemic to islands, meaning they occur nowhere else on the planet.

These findings are important. Island plants are at higher risk of extinction than those on mainlands. Detailed knowledge of plants species, and where they grow, is essential for monitoring and conserving them.

Researchers counted and mapped the diversity of plant life on Earth’s islands.
Peta McCartney/AAP

Mapping island floras worldwide

The study involved an international team of scientists. We developed an unprecedented database of vegetation information from more than 3,400 geographical regions worldwide, including about 2,000 islands.

The definition of an island is somewhat arbitrary. Conventionally, an island is a landmass entirely surrounded by water and smaller than a continent. This means Tasmania and New Guinea are islands, but mainland Australia – a continent in itself – is not. This is the definition we used.

We found 94,052 plant species, or 31% of the world’s total, are native to islands. Of these, 63,280 plant species, or 21%, only occur on islands.

Endemic species were concentrated on large tropical islands such as Madagascar, New Guinea and Borneo. On Madagascar alone, 9,318 plant species – 83% of its total flora – grow there and nowhere else.

Fewer plant species overall were found at ocean archipelagos such as Hawaii, the Canary Islands and the Mascarenes (east of Madagascar, including La Reunion and Mauritius). But a large share of their species were still unique to these islands.

Two palms are endemic to Australia’s Lord Howe Island – Howea forsteriana and H. belmoreana. They are one of the best-researched examples of “sympatric speciation”, or in other words, species that evolve from a common ancestor at the same location.

This mode of evolution has long been hypothesised to exist. But examples are rare, and highly useful for evolutionary research.

The Norfolk Island Pine (Araucaria heterophylla) is, of course, named after the tiny island where it is found. This species, while endangered in the wild, is now widely planted along Australia’s beaches where it is instantly recognisable to us.

Islands are of great conservation concern

Islands cover just 5.3% of the world’s land area, but contribute disproportionately to global biodiversity.

Island plants are at much greater risk of extinction than species found in mainland areas, for reasons such as:

small population sizes
unique evolutionary traits that make them vulnerable to invasive species such as herbivores
specific habitat requirements
habitat degradation
threats from invasive plant and animal species
climate change.

Some 57% of the island-endemic species we assessed are considered critically endangered, endangered, vulnerable, or near-threatened, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature.

Alarmingly, 176 of plant species endemic to islands are already classified as extinct, accounting for 55% of all known extinct plant species globally. Among these is Hawaii’s vulcan palm (Brighamia insignis), which is now considered extinct in the wild. However, the species is popular as an ornamental plant and still survives in gardens.

Hawaii’s vulcan palm is extinct in the wild, but is popular as an ornamental plant.
Shutterstock

Other species might be less lucky; extinction in the wild may mean being lost for ever.

So, assessing the conservation status of island floras is important. Under a globally agreed United Nations target, 30% of the world’s land and oceans should be protected by 2030. We calculated how much of global islands is conserved today. Disappointingly, only 6% of endemic plant species occur on islands that meet this target.

For instance, New Caledonia, Madagascar and New Guinea – known for their many endemic plant species – contain relatively low levels of protected areas.

Assessing the conservation status of island floras is important.
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Protecting our island plants

Urgent action is needed to protect island biodiversity. This includes expanding protected areas, prioritising regions with high numbers of endemic species, and implementing habitat restoration projects.

Without such measures, the unique floral diversity of islands may continue to decline, with potentially severe consequences for global biodiversity.

Much more research is needed to determined the best conservation strategies for all these plant species. Accurate data is vital to guide future conservation strategies and safeguard against further loss.

Our study also serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for targeted plant conservation efforts on islands. Many species teeter on the brink of extinction, and time is running out to preserve this irreplaceable natural heritage. Läs mer…

On land, we’re familiar with heatwaves and cold snaps. But the deep sea also experiences prolonged periods of hot and cold.

Marine heatwaves and cold spells can severely damage ocean ecosystems and habitats such as coral reefs. These extremes can also force species to move or die and cause sudden losses for fisheries.

In research published today in Nature, we show almost half of the heatwaves and cold snaps reaching the ocean’s twilight zone – between 200 and 1,000 metres – are driven by large eddy currents, swirling currents which transport warm or cold water.

As the oceans heat up, heatwaves linked to eddy currents are getting more intense – and so are cold snaps. These pose potential threats to the vast amount of life in the twilight zone, home to the world’s most abundant vertebrate and the largest migration on the planet.

Monitoring the deep sea is hard

About 90% of heat trapped by greenhouse gases has gone into the oceans. As a result, marine heatwaves are arriving more frequently – especially off Australia’s east coast, Tasmania, the northeast Pacific coast in the United States and in the North Atlantic.

Researchers have long relied on satellite measurements of temperatures at the ocean surface to detect these extreme ocean temperature events. Surface temperatures are directly influenced by the atmosphere. But it’s different at depth.

Satellites can’t measure temperatures under the surface, making the deep sea much harder to monitor.

Instead, we have a handful of long-term moorings – measurement buoys suspended at depth – across the world’s oceans. These are hugely valuable, as they continuously record temperatures and make it possible to detect extremes temperature changes.

In recent decades, there have been welcome advances in the form of Argo floats – robotic divers which dive 2,000 metres deep and resurface, sampling temperature and salinity as they go.

Data from these two sources coupled with traditional measurements from vessels made our research possible.

Argo floats are robotic instruments which take measurements as they dive deep and resurface.
CSIRO/AAP

Heatwaves inside eddy currents

The data gave us two million high quality temperature readings or “profiles” across the world’s oceans, spanning three decades. We used this rich data to uncover the role of eddy currents.

Ocean eddies are huge loops of swirling current, sometimes hundreds of kilometres across and reaching down over 1,000 metres. They’re so large you can see them on satellite images.

These powerful currents can push warm surface water down deeper or lift deep cold water up, causing rapid temperature changes. Eddies can travel a long distance before dissipating, carrying bodies of colder or warmer water with them.

We discovered their role in triggering deep heatwaves and cold snaps by examining each temperature profile and cross-matching this with eddies present at the same time and location.

This showed eddies played a major role in triggering marine heatwaves and cold spells in waters deeper than 100 metres – especially in the mid-latitude oceans north and south of the tropics.

The East Australian Current takes warm water southward down the east coast, triggering many eddies. More than 70% of deeper marine heatwaves in this area actually took place inside ocean eddies.

When eddies in this current spin anticlockwise, they tend to bring marine heatwaves, transporting warm water to the depths. But when they spin clockwise, they bring cold deep water up higher, bringing cold spells.

We found deep extreme temperature events linked to eddies are seen more often in major ocean boundary currents, such as the East Australian and Kuroshio currents in the Pacific and the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic. Deep marine heatwaves also occur in the Leeuwin Current off Western Australia. The stronger the eddy currents, the more likely they are to trigger extreme temperatures deeper down.

Eddy currents are the main driver for nearly half of all deep ocean heatwaves and cold spells. Other drivers include ocean temperature fronts from strong ocean currents and large-scale ocean waves.

When eddy currents spin one way, they can send heat to the depths. When they spin another, they can bring cold water towards the surface.
olrat/Shutterstock

What does this mean for ocean life?

Day in, day out, heat trapped by greenhouse gases makes its way to the oceans.

You would expect marine heatwaves to increase, which they are. But cold snaps haven’t gone away. In fact, extremes of both heat and cold are getting more intense in the deeper ocean as the climate changes.

Our research suggests eddy currents are acting to magnify the warming rates of marine heatwaves and the cooling rate of the cold spells. Warmer oceans overall are leading to stronger eddy currents, which in turn are able to trigger large temperature change over a greater vertical distance.

Because we can detect ocean eddies with satellites, we can use this research to predict when deeper marine heatwaves and cold spells are likely. This will help find which ecosystems are likely to be hit by extreme heat or cold and assess what damage they do.

The ocean layer these extremes affect is called the twilight zone – between 200 and 1,000 metres deep. These depths are home to many important fish species and plankton. In fact, this zone has more fish biomass than the rest of the ocean combined. One small fish, the bristlemouth, is likely the most abundant vertebrate on earth, potentially numbering in the quadrillions – thousands of trillions.

The mesopelagic Twilight Zone is rich in life. Clockwise from top: mesopelagic jellyfish, viperfish, lanternfish, larvacean, copepod and squid.
Wikimedia/Drazen et al, CC BY-NC-ND

When night falls, vast numbers of fish, crustaceans and other creatures migrate towards the surface to feed in the largest animal migration on Earth. During the day, many open ocean fish head to the twilight to avoid sharks, whales and other surface predators.

Heat and cold brought by eddies aren’t the only threat to the twilight zone. Marine heatwaves can lead to low oxygen levels in the water and reduced nutrients. We will need to find out what threat these combined changes pose to life in the twilight. Läs mer…

Oct. 16 marks World Food Day, a global initiative drawing attention to the “right to foods for a better life and a better future.” However, Canada’s food and agricultural policies are falling short of this objective.

Canada’s current agricultural policies are not serving the well-being of the public. Canada’s agricultural program payments and subsidies are not aligned with the government’s dietary guidelines and health goals.

Very few agriculture investments go to the production of fruits and vegetables, even though Canadians under-consume them. Instead, financial support overwhelmingly goes to feed crops, agricultural export crops and foods high in saturated fat. This is particularly troubling, given the rise of food and lifestyle diseases in Canada, such as diabetes, obesity, coronary heart disease and high cholesterol.

The health-care costs of diet-related diseases from not meeting the dietary guidelines are at least two per cent of all health-care costs in Canada, with some estimates putting it as high as 19 per cent. Agricultural policy is not just about food; it influences health, the economy and the environment.

Climate change and agriculture

Trying to address greenhouse gas emissions without paying attention to agriculture is like heating your home while not ensuring doors and windows are closed. Agriculture is a big contributor to Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions.

As climate change intensifies, bringing more frequent and severe wildfires, droughts, floods, and heat domes , agriculture is being impacted. Instability in weather patterns threatens regional and global social stability and may require Canada to rethink the dominant role of international trade in shaping its current agricultural policies.

Read more:
How to fight climate change in agriculture while protecting jobs

Government policies that largely support input-intensive crops and animal agriculture contribute significantly to methane and nitrous oxide emissions and global warming.

Despite these concerns, Canada is not investing strategically or sufficiently in agriculture. Despite $12.5 billion dollars in annual agricultural supports, a surprising portion of Canadian farmers continue to financially struggle to survive. According to the National Farmers Union:

“Over the last three decades, the agribusiness corporations that supply fertilizers, chemicals, machinery, fuels, technologies, services, credit, and other materials and services have captured 95 per cent of all farm revenues, leaving farmers just five per cent.”

In 2016, 66 per cent of all farms in Canada were in the revenue class of $10,000 to $249,999. On average, these farms had expenses exceeding their revenue by a large margin.

While Canada spends a large share of its budget on addressing the negative outcomes of how we produce and consume food, there remain greater opportunities for investing in preventive measures that promote a healthier, more sustainable food system. Canada’s 20th century agriculture policy regime is woefully insufficient for the challenges of the 21st century.

Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food Lawrence MacAulay rises during Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill, in Ottawa, on April 18, 2024.
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Patrick Doyle

Solutions to the crisis

Transforming our food systems will help to avert devastating climate change and ecological devastation. Many Canadian farmers are already leading the way by incorporating principles of sustainability into their practices. And the good news is that healthy diets are also environmentally sustainable.

Food outlets and school cafeterias can play a role in reducing inefficiencies in the food system, like food waste, and improving sustainability by promoting healthy eating. To make this happen, schools need more resources and autonomy to counter misinformation about food and position Canadians for success by making healthy choices attractive.

Read more:
How schools and families can take climate action by learning about food systems

Many Canadians support local, bioregional food systems as an alternative to anonymous, transnational food systems. However, these local initiatives are not enough on their own to meet our health, community vitality and environmental goals.

To truly make an impact, local food movements must be part of a larger, co-ordinated effort supported by policies that align agricultural production with healthy diets.
A new approach to food policies that considers them from a holistic perspective, beyond GDP, and respects farmers while creating food systems based on the One Planet and One Health frameworks is needed.

It’s important to recognize that farmers are not only just business operators; they are our neighbours, and are integral to our communities. Supporting them with better policies and giving everyone equitable access to nourishing and sustainable foods will ensure a healthier, more resilient future for all Canadians.

Canada needs to provide stronger support for family farms practising agroecologically sound production methods. Government programs that support greater production and purchasing of grains, fruits and vegetables for direct human consumption are also needed. These initiatives would reduce Canada’s reliance on imports of these critical foods.

In addition, federal and municipal governments should strengthen and broaden Canada’s bioregional food systems while also fostering the growth of small- and medium-sized food businesses. It’s also important to reduce the political and market power of oligopolies in Canada’s food system.

A farmer harvests a soy crop in Levis, Que., on Sept. 24, 2024.
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jacques Boissinot

A call for change

None of these changes can happen without moving beyond the current, outdated productionist model that views agriculture in isolation and relies on the belief that only global-industrial food systems can feed the world.

In fact, smaller-scale agroecological farmers operating in bioregional food systems are key. Achieving our broader societal goals means thinking of food through agriculture, human health and environmental sustainability lenses.

Canada needs a new vision of agriculture that connects health and environment goals with sustainable diets and prosperous family farming. This vision must prioritize nutritious diets, human and environmental health, and the overall well-being of society beyond profits, market share and food exports. Also it must be formed collectively by decision-makers, farmers, food processors, community groups and the public.

In Canada, governments, organizations and citizens must work together to create a food system vision for Canada, much like Food Secure Canada’s Resetting the Table process previously did.

Further collaboration among agriculture, environment and health professionals can arise from these efforts, as can be seen with Canada’s National School Food program, which is aligning local farmers and suppliers of local options to meet Canada’s Food Guide. This is also an opportunity for Canada’s Food Policy Advisory Council to gain greater influence in shaping policy.

Just as calls for health-care reform often focus on improving services, Canadians have the right to expect better outcomes from agricultural subsidies. By prioritizing economic, environmental and public health sustainability, Canada can ensure its agricultural policy is fit for its 21st-century food system. Läs mer…