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Sudan’s civil war has devastated the country and strained relations with neighbouring South Sudan. Events in January 2025 have stirred up xenophobic feelings in Sudan and outrage in its southern neighbour, heightening the risk of regional instability.

Early in the year, the Sudanese Armed Forces captured Wad Madani, a town in Sudan’s central Al Gazira state. The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces had seized control of the town at the start of Sudan’s civil war in April 2023.

In the days following the army’s takeover of Wad Madani, various images and videos surfaced online. They showed brutal reprisals from the soldiers, including systemic killings and torture. Some of these acts were ethnically targeted against South Sudanese workers employed in the region’s agricultural schemes.

These images sparked outrage in South Sudan. This led to anti-Sudanese riots in the capital Juba and other cities on 16 January 2025, resulting in fatalities, injuries and widespread looting.

The Sudanese army formed a committee to investigate the attacks in Wad Madani. The credibility of these investigation is questionable, however, given that the committee is composed of army loyalists.

Further hurting the investigation’s credibility was a statement a few days later from the army’s second-in-command, Mohamed al-Atta, alleging that South Sudanese fighters constitute 65% of the Rapid Support Forces.

These events have strained relations between Sudan and South Sudan, compounding an already volatile association.

They also highlight a war strategy the Sudanese army is pursuing to gain domestic support: that the Rapid Support Forces is primarily composed of foreigners, in this case, South Sudanese fighters.

Read more:
War in Sudan puts South Sudan in danger too: the world’s youngest nation needs a stable neighbour

This rhetoric has been fuelled by historical tensions between Sudan and South Sudan arising from the liberation war and the latter’s subsequent independence. South Sudan’s independence resulted in the loss of valuable oil resources for Sudan.

Further, the narrative that the Rapid Support Forces largely comprises foreign fighters – helpfully for the army – feeds and taps into nationalistic and xenophobic sentiments in Sudan. These sentiments date back to the post-independence efforts of the ruling elite to establish an Islamic and Arab state. This marginalised smaller ethnic groups.

The army’s rhetoric is further supported by the overlap of tribal and ethnic affiliations across Sudan’s borders, including South Sudan and Chad. There are also the numerous reports of the paramilitary group receiving support from foreign players like the United Arab Emirates.

I have studied transition processes and conflict dynamics in Sudan and South Sudan for more than 15 years. In my view, the army has used the narrative that the Rapid Support Forces is a foreign one to rally domestic support – and distract attention from its own actions and failures.

The strategy

The leadership of the Sudanese Armed Forces has frequently emphasised the Rizeigat origins of the paramilitary forces’ leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, or Hemedti.

The Rizeigat tribe spans both the Darfur and Chad border. This has supported claims that the Rapid Support Forces includes Chadians. Reports of the paramilitary group recruiting in Chad and the presence of Chadian militants in Khartoum have further reinforced this portrayal.

When it comes to South Sudanese involvement, there is documented evidence of South Sudanese fighters participating in the Sudan conflict. However, the scale of their involvement is grossly overstated. Even the highest estimates from my research contacts suggest fewer than 5,000 South Sudanese fighters have been involved. This is a mere fraction of the Rapid Support Forces’ estimated 100,000-strong militia.

Read more:
Sudan is burning and foreign powers are benefiting – what’s in it for the UAE

Another contributing factor to the narrative around South Sudanese involvement is the South Sudan People’s Movement/Army. This is an opposition group that operates along the Sudan-South Sudan border. It targets South Sudanese government forces, sometimes using Sudan as a base of operations.

Since the onset of the war, I have learned in the course of my work that some South Sudan People’s Movement/Army troops have aligned with the Rapid Support Forces and participated in battles across Khartoum. Others have used their time in Sudan to acquire weapons and supplies for operations in South Sudan.

However, these opposition fighters are primarily motivated by pragmatic considerations. These include access to resources and political leverage, rather than any ideological alignment with the paramilitary group’s broader goals. These goals include reshaping the power dynamics in Sudan.

The South Sudanese group’s leader Stephen Buay has formally denied any links with the Rapid Support Forces. However, he has occasionally praised the paramilitary troops’ push against the Sudanese army.

Buay is participating in peace talks in Nairobi, where he has collaborated with other South Sudanese opposition figures to form a new joint force. This underscores his focus on South Sudan rather than Sudan.

The implications

Against this background, al-Atta’s claim that South Sudanese fighters make up most of the Rapid Support Forces is best understood as part of a broader strategy to justify the army’s actions and rally nationalist sentiment.

This strategy, however, worsens ethnic and regional tensions. It scapegoats South Sudanese fighters and further entrenches divisions between the two nations.

Read more:
How militia groups capture states and ruin countries: the case of Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces

This rhetoric aligns with the Sudanese army regime’s broader propaganda efforts, which frequently vilify perceived outsiders or adversaries to consolidate power and justify its actions on the battlefield.

This approach risks perpetuating the cycle of violence, mistrust and regional instability. Läs mer…

Education, especially higher education, is a step towards adulthood and a foundation for the future.

But what happens when education loses its value as a way to climb the social ladder? What if a degree is no guarantee of getting stable work, being able to provide for one’s family, or owning a house or car?

This devaluing of higher education as a path to social mobility is a grim reality for young Zimbabweans. Over the past two decades the southern African country has been beset by economic, financial, political and social challenges.

These crises have severely undermined the premises and promises of education, especially at a tertiary level. A recent survey by independent research organisation Afrobarometer found that 90% of young Zimbabweans had secondary and post-secondary education compared to 83% of those aged between 36 and 55. But 41% of the youth were unemployed and looking for a job as opposed to 26% of the older generation.

The situation is so dire that it’s become a recurring theme in Zimdancehall, a popular music genre produced and consumed by young Zimbabweans. “Hustling” (attempts to create income-generating opportunities), informal livelihoods and young people’s collapsed dreams are recurrent topics in songs like Winky D’s Twenty Five, Junior Tatenda’s Kusvikira Rinhi and She Calaz’s Kurarama.

I study the way people experience the informal economy in Zimbabwe and Zambia. In a recent study I explored the loss of education’s value as a social mobility tool in the Zimbabwean context.

My research revealed how recent school and university graduates think about the role of education in their lives. My respondents felt let down by the fact that education no longer provided social mobility. They were disappointed that there was no longer a direct association between education and employment.

However, the graduates I interviewed were not giving up. Some were working towards new qualifications, hoping and preparing for economic improvements. They also thought deeply about how the educational system could be improved. Many young people got involved in protests. These included actions by the Coalition of Unemployed Graduates and the #ThisGown protests, which addressed graduate unemployment issues. Some also took part in #ThisFlag and #Tajamuka protests, which had wider socio-economic and political agendas.

Understanding history

To understand the current status and state of education in Zimbabwe it’s important to look to the country’s history.

Zimbabwe was colonised by the British from the late 19th century. The colonial education system was racialised. Education for white students was academic. For Black students, it was mostly practice-oriented, to create a pool of semi-skilled workers.

In the 1930s education was instrumental in the formation of Zimbabwe’s Black middle class. A small number of Black graduates entered white collar jobs, using education as a social mobility tool. The educational system also opened up somewhat for women.

Despite some university reforms during the 1950s, the system remained deeply racialised until the 1980s. That’s when the post-colonial government democratised the education system. Primary school enrolment went up by 242%, and 915% more students entered secondary school. In the 1990s nine more state universities were opened.

However, worsening economic conditions throughout the 1990s put pressure on the system. A presidential commission in 1999 noted that secondary schools were producing graduates with non-marketable skills – they were too academic and focused on examinations. Students’ experiences, including at the university level, have worsened since then.

The decline has been driven by systemic and institutional problems in primary and secondary education, like reduced government spending, teachers’ poor working conditions, political interference and brain drain. This, coupled with the collapse of the formal economic sector and a sharp drop in formal employment opportunities, severely undermined education’s social mobility function.

‘A key, but no door to open’

My recent article was based on my wider doctoral research. For this, I studied economic informalisation in Zimbabwe’s capital city, Harare. It involved more than 120 interviews during eight months of in-country research.

This particular paper builds on seven core interviews with recent school and university graduates in the informal sector, as well as former student leaders.

Winky D’s “Twenty Five” is about young Zimbabweans’ grievances.

Some noted that education had lost part of its value as it related to one’s progression in society. As one of my respondents, Ashlegh Pfunye (former secretary-general of the Zimbabwe National Students Union), described it, young people were told that education was a key to success – but there was no door to open.

Some of my respondents were working in the informal sector, as vendors and small-scale producers. Some could not use their degrees to secure jobs, while others gave up their dreams of obtaining a university degree. Lisa, for example, was very upset about giving up on her dream to pursue post-secondary education and tried to re-adjust to her current circumstances:

I used to dream that I will have my own office, now I dream that one day I’ll have my own shop.

Those who had university qualifications stressed that, despite being unable to apply their degrees in the current circumstances, they kept going to school and getting more certification. This prepared them for future opportunities in the event of what everyone hoped for: economic improvement.

Historical tensions

Some of my interviewees, especially recent university graduates and activists, were looking for possible solutions – like changing the curriculum and approach to education that trains workers rather than producers and entrepreneurs. As Makomborero Haruzivishe, former secretary-general of the Zimbabwe National Students’ Union, said: “Our educational system was created to train human robots who would follow the instructions.”

Entrepreneurship education is a popular approach in many countries to changing the structure of classic education. In the absence of employment opportunities for skilled graduates, it is supposed to provide them with the tools to create such opportunities for themselves and others.

Read more:
Nigeria’s universities need to revamp their entrepreneurship courses — they’re not meeting student needs

In 2018, the government introduced what it calls the education 5.0 framework. It has a strong entrepreneurship component. It’s too soon to say whether it will bear fruit. And it may be held back by history.

For example, the introduction of the Education-with-Production model in the 1980s, which included practical subjects and vocational training, was met with resistance because it was seen as a return to the dual system.

Because of Zimbabwe’s historically racialised education system, many students and parents favour the UK-designed Cambridge curriculum and traditional academic educational programmes. Zimbabwe has the highest number of entrants into the Cambridge International exam in Africa.

Feeling let down

The link between education and employment in Zimbabwe has many tensions: modernity and survival, academic pursuits and practicality, promises and reality. It’s clear from my study that graduates feel let down because the modernist promises of education have failed them. Läs mer…

Burkina Faso is a west African dryland country known for its diverse ecosystems, including savannas, forests and wetlands. Large herbivores like elephant, giraffe and hippopotamus, and predators like lions, leopards and the African lynx, roam the country’s savannas. Many bird species use the country as a stopover or wintering ground, making it an important migratory route between Europe and Africa.

Nature reserves as protected areas cover 14% of the country’s land. They are surrounded by heavily populated areas. Demand for food, fuelwood and land to settle on has stimulated agricultural activity, grazing and woodcutting near these protected areas.

Read more:
Burkina Faso study shows link between land degradation and migration

As part of my PhD research, I investigated the changing use of the land between 2000 and 2022 in one of Burkina Faso’s key wildlife reserves, the Bontioli nature reserve.

Courtesy Regional Environmental Office, southwest Burkina Faso

Located in the south-west region in Burkina Faso, the reserve covers over 46,000 hectares. A third of it is a strict nature reserve where humans have limited access. The other two-thirds of Bontioli is a partial reserve, where some species are protected but which the local community can still draw on as a source of food and medicinal plants.

We used satellite images from NASA and the United States government Earth Explorer and human population data to find out how the land cover (trees, grass and shrubs) had changed between 2000 and 2022.

My research found that this protected area had lost 27.6% of its forests and trees, and 4.5% of its shrub savanna, because of human activity. During the same 22 year period, the crops planted by humans took over a further 26.3% of the protected area.

Read more:
What Cameroon can teach others about managing community forests

The changes to the land cover of the Bontioli reserve are largely linked to the surrounding human population growth and density. My research found that there was a lack of local community involvement in managing the protected area. If they’d been involved, the local population could have helped conserve the natural reserve.

In future, people who manage natural reserves must remember that the size of local communities will keep growing. This must be factored into planning so that protected areas can be managed sustainably to provide for people, wildlife and ecosystems.

Working with local people to protect the reserve

Smallholder rainfed farming of millet, red and white sorghum, maize and rice dominates the country’s agriculture. Low land productivity has led farmers to expand their farms onto land in natural reserves.

Protected areas in Burkina Faso are also threatened by illicit activities such as logging, mining and poaching.

These threats are mainly caused by human population growth, urbanisation and climate change. For example, the data I collected shows that an additional 13,310 people moved into the Bontioli reserve between 2000 and 2022.

The more the population increases, the more the vegetation decreases. The population increase in the Bontioli natural reserve led to deforestation. Farming also led to wildfires, after natural vegetation was cleared and the dead wood set alight.

The Bontioli Nature Reserve in Burkina Faso.
Courtesy Razak Kiribou

Conservationists and local government must collaborate with local communities to find the best way to protect the Bontioli reserve. The methods must be decided by everyone who uses the natural resources of the reserve. It is crucial for conservation authorities and the government to respect that local people need to earn a living from the land.

For instance, most of the households who have moved into the reserve were attracted by the abundance of trees and other natural resources in the reserve. This is because they still use wood and charcoal as an energy source. But cutting down vegetation for fuelwood has decreased the reserve’s vegetation by 32.1% in two decades.

What needs to happen next

Several global projects have useful lessons for Bontioli. Local government authorities and conservation organisations must regulate land use more strictly. For example, Costa Rica’s Payment for Ecosystem Services programme pays people to plant trees, along with crops, to prevent deforestation.

Promoting sustainable agricultural practices such as agroforestry and controlled grazing, similar to Namibia’s Community-based Natural Resource Management, is very important. This programme aims to ensure that smallholder farmers who need land for crops can work with conservationists.

The Great Green Wall in Africa’s Sahel region combats desertification through large-scale reforestation. This could also serve as a model for reforestation projects within the reserve.

Read more:
Africa’s Great Green Wall will only combat desertification and poverty by harnessing local solutions

Conservation actions such as awareness campaigns and participatory activities among local populations can help restore Bontioli natural reserve. This has been done successfully in Tanzania’s Ngorongoro conservation area. This project integrates local population activities with wildlife conservation that supports both pastoralist communities and biodiversity protection through controlling the use of land.

For example, the government could fence off parts of the reserve for livestock to graze on, while protecting the rest of the reserve from farm animals.

Engaging local communities through education about the benefits of conservation, and adapting conservation strategies to local conditions, are essential for the success of these initiatives.

To achieve all this, the government and conservation authorities need to recognise local communities as natural resource users, and consult them on how best to manage the Bontioli reserve.

International funding and public-private partnerships are needed to bring in the funds for long term conservation efforts. These efforts could contribute towards the achievement of the United Nations’ sustainable development goal 15 to protect, restore and promote sustainable use of ecosystems. Läs mer…

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in conversation with Michelle Grattan.

Anthony Albanese has outlined his pitch to improve his and his government’s standing among men, as he insists he can hold onto majority government at the election to be held in April or May.

In a wide-ranging interview on The Conversation’s Politics podcast, canvassing both his plans and current issues, the Prime Minister addresses the gender voter gap the polls have been showing, which is worrying Labor strategists.

On a two-party basis, a December Essential poll had the Coalition on 51% among men, and Labor on 44%, with 4% undecided. Among women, Labor was on 49% and the Coalition on 46%, with 5% undecided.

In a Resolve poll on preferred prime minister, Peter Dutton polled 40% among men, and Albanese 34%. Among women, Albanese was on 36% and Dutton on 31%.

Albanese tells the podcast: “One of the things that we will be really campaigning very hard on is the impact on blue collar workers of the Coalition promises to get rid of same job, same pay [law], the definition of casual in employment [and] their plan to essentially go back to wages going backwards, not forwards.”

Targeting younger voters

As Labor crafts its election policy, Albanese also flags he is looking to do more for young people.

Asked who he feels is being “left behind” in Australia at the moment, he points to the issue of “intergenerational equity”.

“I think that young people feel like they’ve got the rough end of the pineapple compared with previous generations,” he says. This is “something I’m really conscious of”.

Outlining what the government has done or announced already on student debt, housing supply, schools, the universities accord and free TAFE, he suggests there will be further policies targeted towards younger voters.

The likeliest election dates

Albanese confirms he has not locked in an election date. “We make decisions when we finalise them and I’ll consult,” he says.

“But I’ve always said […] one of the problems with three year terms is that they are too short.”

The speculation is the election will be either April 12, or one of the first three Saturdays in May, with May 17 the last practical date.

April 12 would mean scrapping the scheduled March 25 budget. “We certainly are working to hand down a budget in March,” Albanese says. “The ERC [Expenditure Review Committee] will be meeting this week, as it met last week.”

Asked whether he is confident he could still deliver his program if the election resulted in a minority Labor government, Albanese says: “I’m confident that we can achieve an ongoing majority government at this election. I think there are seats that we currently hold that we have good prospects in.”

He names two Victorian Liberal seats he had just visited – Menzies and Deakin – among those he believes Labor can win from the Coalition. (After the redistribution, Menzies is notionally a Labor seat by a tiny margin.)

Watching for a rate cut and trade wars

Asked when Australia might come out of the present per capital recession, Albanese says things are “heading in a positive direction”, but does not nominate a time.

He sounds confident about interest rates falling soon:

All of the economic commentators are saying that that is the most likely prediction of markets. It’s not up to me as prime minister to tell the independent Reserve Bank what to do, but I’m certain that we have created the conditions through, as well as our responsible economic management, producing two budget surpluses – the massive turnaround that we have seen, compared with what the Morrison 2022 budget handed down by the Coalition […] was predicting.

Prompted about the Reserve Bank’s next meeting on February 18, he says “I’m certainly conscious of that date”.

With United States President Donald Trump slapping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China while foreshadowing wider tariffs, Albanese recalls his phone conversation after Trump was elected, in which he reminded the incoming president that America has a trade surplus with Australia. Australia would “put our arguments forward very clearly” if it faced the threat of tariffs, Albanese says.

Looking ahead

Looking ahead to this fortnight’s parliamentary sitting, Albanese confirmed to The Conversation that he will not proceed with the Nature Positive legislation. It had been strongly opposed by the Western Australian government, which has its election on March 8.

But he hopes the Senate will pass the legislation for political donation and spending caps, indicating the government is willing to compromise to get the bill through.

Looking to a second term, Albanese highlights in particular the opportunities presented by the energy transition.

“We are positioned better than anywhere else in the world to benefit, in my view, from this transition that’s occurring.”

He contrasts Dutton’s energy plan, which he describes as a “myopic vision” to make Australia smaller.

“I want Australia to be more successful, to be enlarged in our optimism and our vision. And I want to lead a government that does that.” Läs mer…

Record-breaking floods across north Queensland have now turned deadly, with one woman drowning while being rescued on Sunday morning. And the floodwaters are still rising, with rain set to continue.

Over the 48 hours to Sunday, there were reports of up to 1 metre of rainfall in parts of northeast Queensland. The torrential rain continues, particularly in the Herbert Coast region and north to around Tully.

Major flooding in northern Queensland rivers, as of 12.45pm February 2.
Bureau of Meteorology

Residents of Ingham and nearby towns, about 100km from Townsville, are witnessing flooding from the nearby Herbert River. This morning, it was at 15 metres and rising. With more heavy rain forecast for the next 24 hours, the Herbert River is likely to break the 1967 record of 15.2 metres later today.

Queensland Premier David Crisafulli – who grew up on his family’s sugar cane farm in Ingham – has said the floods will be a “once in a century” event for the town. To make matters worse, authorities say the town has lost power and an extended outage is likely.

The atmospheric factors behind these floods are very similar to recent floods in the region – and climate change is no doubt playing a role.

The flood level for the Herbert River at Ingham set in 1967 was 15.2 metres. It’s likely to be breached this afternoon (Sunday February 2).
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY

Where are the floods hitting?

For many people in Townsville – the largest city in Northern Australia – the unfolding emergency will bring back memories of the devastating February 2019 floods, which caused A$1.24 billion in damage. Residents have been asked to evacuate from several low-lying suburbs which were inundated in 2019.

Authorities in Townsville asked all residents in the low-lying black zone to evacuate by midday Sunday February 2. Floodwaters could reach second-storey heights in this zone. Residents in pink suburbs have been asked to be on standby.
Townsville Council, CC BY

It is too early to say if this flood event will be worse. Fortunately, water levels in the city’s Ross River Dam are much lower than 2019. Townsville Airport has recorded 545mm of rain over the past 48 hours, with many northwest suburbs recording much higher levels. The township of Rollingstone – 60km northwest of Townsville – recorded a whopping 702mm over the 24 hours to 9am Sunday.

Further north in the Cairns to Daintree region, residents are watching with concern, with many still raw after the record-breaking floods of December 2023.

In February 2019, floods devastated parts of Townsville. Insurers put the cost at A$1.2 billion.
Dan Peled/AAP

What’s behind these floods?

The ongoing 2025 extreme rainfall event, the 2019 Townsville floods and the 2023 Cairns and Daintree floods are remarkably similar in many ways.

What triggered each of these floods was prolonged heavy rain falling on the southeast flank of a stationary tropical low weather system. Normally, tropical lows bring wind and rain, but move through quite quickly. But in recent years, we have seen a tendency for these systems to stall, sitting in place over or near land and dumping huge volumes of rain.

Last week, the Bureau of Meteorology warned that five tropical lows were forming around northern Australia. Most tropical cyclones form from tropical lows embedded in the region’s monsoon trough, a large low pressure band which forms over summer and draws in warm, moist air from the adjacent tropical seas.

But significant rain events like this one don’t necessarily require a tropical cyclone. Slow-moving deep monsoon lows over land can also deliver huge amounts of rain and widespread flooding.

These atmospheric conditions allow intense rain bands to form between converging winds: warm, moist winds from the northeast and southeast winds originating from the Coral Sea. As the winds collide, they push the moist air up into the cooler parts of the atmosphere where it condenses and falls as torrential rain.

More extreme rainfall and higher frequencies of flooded rivers and flash floods around the world have a clear link to climate change and ongoing global heating.

The main drivers behind these events include warming of the atmosphere. For every 1°C of warming, the atmosphere holds 7% more water vapour. Recent research suggests this figure could be even higher for short duration rainfall.

Hotter oceans hold more energy, meaning they can also amplify the global water cycle when atmospheric conditions are suitable.

This year’s latest ever monsoon

This year, sea surface temperatures in the northwest Coral Sea are 1-2°C above average. Ocean temperatures have risen because of a lack of cloud cover and rain last month. In northwestern Australia, this has given rise to an intensifying marine heatwave.

Residents filling sand bags at Lou Lister Park, Railway Estate in Townsville, Saturday, February 1, 2025.
Scott Radford-Chisholm/AAP

This ocean heat is likely to be driven by the Australian monsoon’s latest ever arrival. The monsoon brings heavy rains to northern Australia, triggering the wet season. When it arrives, sea surface temperatures generally drop due to a combination of high cloud cover and the cooling effect of rainwater.

After a slow start, the North Australian monsoon season is now in full swing.

The Bureau of Meteorology is monitoring an active monsoon trough for any low pressure systems, which may develop into tropical cyclones over the next week or so. If any cyclone does form, it will gain energy from warmer than usual sea surface temperatures.

What’s next for north Queensland?

The flood emergency in north Queensland is far from over. All global circulation models predict heavy rain to continue in the region, extending up towards Cape York and the Gulf Country as an active monsoon surge moves in from Indonesia.

As river catchments get saturated, more and more water will run off and engorge rivers. Forecasts are for rain to continue well into tonight and the next few days. We are likely to see more flooding in more places this week.

For the latest updates, check the Bureau of Meteorology’s Queensland flood warnings, ABC Emergency or local ABC radio stations. Läs mer…

Record-breaking floods across north Queensland have now turned deadly, with one woman drowning while being rescued on Sunday morning. And the floodwaters are still rising, with rain set to continue.

Over the 48 hours to Sunday, there were reports of up to 1 metre of rainfall in parts of northeast Queensland. The torrential rain continues, particularly in the Herbert Coast region and north to around Tully.

Major flooding in northern Queensland rivers, as of 12.45pm February 2.
Bureau of Meteorology

Residents of Ingham and nearby towns, about 100km from Townsville, are witnessing flooding from the nearby Herbert River. This morning, it was at 15 metres and rising. With more heavy rain forecast for the next 24 hours, the Herbert River is likely to break the 1967 record of 15.2 metres later today.

Queensland Premier David Crisafulli – who grew up on his family’s sugar cane farm in Ingham – has said the floods will be a “once in a century” event for the town. To make matters worse, authorities say the town has lost power and an extended outage is likely.

The atmospheric factors behind these floods are very similar to recent floods in the region – and climate change is no doubt playing a role.

The flood level for the Herbert River at Ingham set in 1967 was 15.2 metres. It’s likely to be breached this afternoon (Sunday February 2).
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY

Where are the floods hitting?

For many people in Townsville – the largest city in Northern Australia – the unfolding emergency will bring back memories of the devastating February 2019 floods, which caused A$1.24 billion in damage. Residents have been asked to evacuate from several low-lying suburbs which were inundated in 2019.

Authorities in Townsville asked all residents in the low-lying black zone to evacuate by midday Sunday February 2. Floodwaters could reach second-storey heights in this zone. Residents in pink suburbs have been asked to be on standby.
Townsville Council, CC BY

It is too early to say if this flood event will be worse. Fortunately, water levels in the city’s Ross River Dam are much lower than 2019. Townsville Airport has recorded 545mm of rain over the past 48 hours, with many northwest suburbs recording much higher levels. The township of Rollingstone – 60km northwest of Townsville – recorded a whopping 702mm over the 24 hours to 9am Sunday.

Further north in the Cairns to Daintree region, residents are watching with concern, with many still raw after the record-breaking floods of December 2023.

In February 2019, floods devastated parts of Townsville. Insurers put the cost at A$1.2 billion.
Dan Peled/AAP

What’s behind these floods?

The ongoing 2025 extreme rainfall event, the 2019 Townsville floods and the 2023 Cairns and Daintree floods are remarkably similar in many ways.

What triggered each of these floods was prolonged heavy rain falling on the southeast flank of a stationary tropical low weather system. Normally, tropical lows bring wind and rain, but move through quite quickly. But in recent years, we have seen a tendency for these systems to stall, sitting in place over or near land and dumping huge volumes of rain.

Last week, the Bureau of Meteorology warned that five tropical lows were forming around northern Australia. Most tropical cyclones form from tropical lows embedded in the region’s monsoon trough, a large low pressure band which forms over summer and draws in warm, moist air from the adjacent tropical seas.

But significant rain events like this one don’t necessarily require a tropical cyclone. Slow-moving deep monsoon lows over land can also deliver huge amounts of rain and widespread flooding.

These atmospheric conditions allow intense rain bands to form between converging winds: warm, moist winds from the northeast and southeast winds originating from the Coral Sea. As the winds collide, they push the moist air up into the cooler parts of the atmosphere where it condenses and falls as torrential rain.

More extreme rainfall and higher frequencies of flooded rivers and flash floods around the world have a clear link to climate change and ongoing global heating.

The main drivers behind these events include warming of the atmosphere. For every 1°C of warming, the atmosphere holds 7% more water vapour. Recent research suggests this figure could be even higher for short duration rainfall.

Hotter oceans hold more energy, meaning they can also amplify the global water cycle when atmospheric conditions are suitable.

This year’s latest ever monsoon

This year, sea surface temperatures in the northwest Coral Sea are 1-2°C above average. Ocean temperatures have risen because of a lack of cloud cover and rain last month. In northwestern Australia, this has given rise to an intensifying marine heatwave.

Residents filling sand bags at Lou Lister Park, Railway Estate in Townsville, Saturday, February 1, 2025.
Scott Radford-Chisholm/AAP

This ocean heat is likely to be driven by the Australian monsoon’s latest ever arrival. The monsoon brings heavy rains to northern Australia, triggering the wet season. When it arrives, sea surface temperatures generally drop due to a combination of high cloud cover and the cooling effect of rainwater.

After a slow start, the North Australian monsoon season is now in full swing.

The Bureau of Meteorology is monitoring an active monsoon trough for any low pressure systems, which may develop into tropical cyclones over the next week or so. If any cyclone does form, it will gain energy from warmer than usual sea surface temperatures.

What’s next for north Queensland?

The flood emergency in north Queensland is far from over. All global circulation models predict heavy rain to continue in the region, extending up towards Cape York and the Gulf Country as an active monsoon surge moves in from Indonesia.

As river catchments get saturated, more and more water will run off and engorge rivers. Forecasts are for rain to continue well into tonight and the next few days. We are likely to see more flooding in more places this week.

For the latest updates, check the Bureau of Meteorology’s Queensland flood warnings, ABC Emergency or local ABC radio stations. Läs mer…

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has dumped – for the second time – the government’s controversial “Nature Positive” legislation, which had run into strong opposition from the Western Australian Labor government.

Albanese, speaking on The Conversation’s Politics podcast ahead of a fortnight parliamentary sitting starting next week, said there was not enough support for the legislation, which had been on the draft list of bills for next week, circulated by the government.

This is the second time the Prime Minister has pulled back from the legislation. Late last year he also said it did not have enough support, despite Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek believing she had a deal with the Greens and crossbench for its passage.

The legislation would set up a federal Environment Protection Agency, which has riled miners who claim it would add to bureaucracy and delay approvals.

In recent days WA premier Roger Cook, who was instrumental in heading off the legislation last year, has been lobbying the federal government again. WA faces an election on March 8.

In an interview on Saturday, Albanese told The Conversation: “I can’t see that it has a path to success. So at this stage, I can say that we won’t be proceeding with it this term. There simply isn’t a [Senate] majority, as there wasn’t last year.

”The Greens Party on one hand have changed their views”, making another demand during the week, he said. While the Liberals – who began the review of the present Environment Protection Act – “have chosen an obstructionist path,” he said.

Albanese said the government would continue to discuss the issue with stakeholders in the next term of parliament.

“Does the environment and protection act need revision from where it was last century? Quite clearly it does. Everyone says that that’s the case. It’s a matter of working to, in a practical way, a commonsense reform that delivers something that supports industry.

”I want to see faster approvals. We in fact have speeded up approvals substantially.

”But we also want proper sustainability as well.”

Albanese also flagged the government might cut back its legislation to reform rules covering electoral donations and spending in order to get a deal to pass it.

Special Minister of State Don Farrell and the Liberals had been on the brink of a deal in the final week of parliament last year, but negotiations imploded at the eleventh hour.

Albanese told The Conversation he hoped the legislation could still be passed. “I spoke with [Farrell] today, he is consulting with people across the parliament.

”What I would say is that we are looking to get reform through. Now whether that is a bigger, broader reform or whether it needs to be narrowed down, we’ll wait and see.

”But we’re very serious about the reform which would lower the donation declarations, that would put a cap on donations, a cap on expenditure, that would lead to more transparency as well. It’s an important part of supporting our democracy.

”We see overseas and we’ve seen people like Clive Palmer here spend over $100 million on a campaign. That’s a distortion of democracy – if one person can spend that much money to try to influence an election and we don’t find out all of that information till much later on.”

The reforms would not start operating until the next term of parliament.

Albanese said he thought the reform would have “overwhelming support” with the public “and I hope that it receives overwhelming support in the Senate as well”. Läs mer…