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Fires have long been a natural part of forest ecosystems, but something is changing. Our new study shows that forest fires have become more widespread and severe amid global heating, particularly in the high northern latitudes such as Canada and Siberia where fires are most sensitive to hotter, drier conditions.

The implications of this are alarming, not just for the ecosystems affected or the cities engulfed by smoke downwind, but for the planet’s ability to store carbon and regulate the climate. The trend we discovered contrasts with declining fire extent in savannah grasslands, which may reflect the expansion of farming and changing rainfall patterns.

We established the leading causes of forest fires in different parts of the world using an AI algorithm. It grouped forest regions into distinct zones with similar fire patterns and underlying causes, uncovering the worrying extent to which climate change is fuelling the expansion of forest fires in Earth’s high northern latitudes.

More fires in ‘extratropical’ forests

Since 2001, emissions from fires in forests outside of the tropics, like parts of the boreal forest in the far north of North America and Eurasia, have nearly tripled. This rise is largely the result of hotter, drier weather occurring more frequently, combined with forests growing more efficiently in places where the cold once stunted their growth.

Climate change is creating ideal conditions for larger, more intense fires, which accelerate climate change in turn by releasing more carbon to the atmosphere. In fact, we found that global carbon emissions from forest fires have increased by 60% over the past two decades. The largest contributions come from fires in Siberia and western North America.

A conifer forest in north-western Canada after the 2023 fire season in which more than 6,000 fires burned through 15 million hectares.
Stefan Doerr

This trend shifts the focus of forest fire emissions from tropical forests, where fires set to make room for farmland have long contributed carbon to the atmosphere. Conservation policies have reduced deforestation rates since the early 2000s in some regions, particularly Amazonia. By contrast, increasing fires in northern forests, such as the taiga – the forest of the cold sub-arctic region – are driven by changing climate conditions and generally started by lightning, which makes them harder to prevent.

Not only is the area affected by fires expanding but the fires themselves are growing more severe and releasing more carbon, according to our new findings. This corresponds with an earlier study that found fires are doing more damage to ecosystems globally than in the past. Fires are burning through drier and more flammable vegetation as global temperatures rise and droughts become more frequent.

In northern forests, more severe fires can burn deep into the soil and release carbon that has accumulated over centuries. Forests can remain net carbon emitters for decades after burning and the more severe fires become, the longer it takes forests to rebound and recapture carbon lost during the fire.

What does this mean for the planet?

The steep rise in fire emissions from forests outside the tropics is a clear signal that the capacity of Earth’s forest to store carbon is at increasing risk.

Forests, particularly in northern regions, absorb and store CO₂ from the atmosphere. But as fires expand and become more severe, these vital carbon sinks are weakened. This undermines the global effort to tackle climate change as forests offset emissions from human activities that burn fossil fuels.

Forest fires, long considered part of the natural carbon cycle, are increasingly driven by human-caused climate change. Yet, international reporting standards don’t differentiate between “natural” levels of forest fire emissions and the higher emissions we’re seeing due to climate change.

This allows excess fire emissions caused by humans to fall outside the scope of national carbon budgets tracked by organisations like the United Nations. Gaps emerge between the carbon emissions we think we’re managing and the actual amount that’s passing between the land and the atmosphere.

What drives fires in different regions varies, so addressing this growing threat requires tailored approaches. Outside of the tropics, proactive forest management is essential. Carefully managed fires and thinning out vegetation can mean fires ultimately cause less damage when they do ignite. Monitoring vegetation growth, alongside fire-favourable weather conditions, can help identify and prioritise areas for intervention.

In tropical forests, reducing ignitions (especially during droughts) and preventing forest fragmentation is key to protecting these ecosystems and their carbon stocks. This may help prevent the more extreme fires that turn tropical forests from carbon sinks into sources.

The Amazon basin endured a historic drought in 2023.
EPA-EFE/Raphael Alves

Increasing fires are a symptom of climate change

Limiting the burning of fossil fuels is central to minimising future fire risk. Without drastic cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, more severe and widespread forest fires are likely, with increasing damage to ecosystems, biodiversity and the climate.

Our study also highlighted the importance of updating international reporting standards on carbon emissions. As forest fires become more closely linked to human-driven climate change, it’s crucial that fire emissions be included in national carbon budgets to provide a more accurate picture of the planet’s carbon fluxes.

There is also a risk of overestimating how much carbon is stored by reforesting areas, especially outside the tropics. Many carbon offset schemes rely on planting new trees or delaying the harvest of existing ones to absorb CO₂, but if the growing threat of forest fires isn’t properly accounted for, these projects could fail to deliver the carbon savings they promise.

Forest fires are no longer just a natural occurrence. As they shift north and intensify, these fires are a clear symptom of human-caused climate change.

It’s essential to recognise the growing role that fires play in the carbon cycle. By doing so, we can better manage fire risks, safeguard forests and ensure a more resilient future for the planet.

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Vladimir Putin’s regular threats about his nuclear arsenal have focused minds on the existential threat his nuclear weapons still represent. But it’s the volatility of the situation in the Middle East that has added a worrying degree of uncertainty to the international situation.

A year after the brutal Hamas attack on Israel – and after months of tit-for-tat missile attacks between Israel and Iran – Israel has commenced a ground invasion of Lebanon which pits the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) directly against Iranian proxy Hezbollah.

At the same time, the government of Benjamin Netanyahu is pursuing an ever more drastic campaign against Hamas in Gaza. It is now reportedly planning to expel all residents from the north of the enclave in order to establish a military zone there. Meanwhile it has ramped up its attacks on the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and against Iranian proxies in Syria.

All-out war between Israel and Iran remains unthinkable, even as questions are raised about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. And yet, as any historian will tell you, the wrong combination of miscalculation, errors of strategic judgement and failures of diplomacy to cause things to escalate with alarming rapidity.

In 1997, Austrian economist Friedrich Glasl published a model of conflict escalation which is generally accepted as the best study of how disagreements can develop into disastrous warfare. It maps, in nine stages, how a conflict can develop from tension between antagonists to a situation into which the warring parties plunge “together into the abyss”.

Nine stages of confict escalation.
Graphic by Swinnall, original from Sampi. Derived from: Konflikteskalation nach Glasl.svg, CC BY-NC-SA

Matthew Powell, a historian of warfare, compares Glasl’s model to the situation between Israel and Iran. He assesses the two antagonists have have reached stage seven, “where they are launching limited blows against each other while avoiding direct confrontation. Both want to make their adversary consider whether the cost of continuing is worth the potential rewards that can be gained”.

Powell believes that both sides presently seem keen to remain at arms length for fear that a direct conflict could plunge them – and their allies – into the aforementioned abyss.

Read more:
Israel-Iran and the nine stages of how conflicts can escalate and get out of control

Now, more than ever, it’s vital to be informed about the important issues affecting global stability. Sign up to receive our weekly World Update newsletter. Every Thursday we’ll you expert analysis of the big stories making international headlines.

For longtime Middle East analyst Paul Rogers, one of the key issues governing the likely future of the conflict is likely to be the domestic politics of Israel. He has watched the country move steadily to the right over more than 50 years, to the extent that the Netanyahu government is now heavily influenced by religious nationalists. Netanyahu has depended for two years on the support of some of the more extreme elements on Israel’s political fringe in order to stay in power.

These hardliners, Rogers writes, are willing to subvert Israeli democracy itself in order to realise their dream of “Messianic Judaism”. A byproduct of this dream would be to push the Palestinian population out of Gaza, which would be a disaster for regional stability. The irony is that by making war on Lebanon, Netanyahu has managed to improve his standing with the Israeli people and is no longer as dependent on political hawks.

Read more:
Israel: what hardliners in Netanyahu’s government want from the war

Campaign in Lebanon

Of course, what may be good for Netanyahu is a disaster for Lebanon, where the death toll is rising daily and more than one-quarter of the population has been displaced.

While Israel’s air force has launched 140 airstrikes across the country, most of the activity has focused on the border areas in the south of the country, where the IDF is reported to be clearing villages, perhaps in anticipation for setting up a buffer zone there.

Israeli ground operation in southern Lebanon as at October 16 2024.
Institute for the Study of War

Over the past fortnight there have been repeated incidents where the IDF have – apparently deliberately – targeted units of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil). This peacekeeping force was set up in 1978 and has the mandate to enforce the UN’s resolution to prevent clashes between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Netanyahu has demanded that Unifil move its peacekeepers out of the conflict zone, but so far the UN troops, led by France and Spain, have refused to leave their posts.

Vanessa Newby and Chiara Ruffa, with input and advice from former senior Unifil political and civil affairs officer John Molloy, (formerly of the Irish Defence Forces) have been tracking the incidents. Most recently they involved an IDF tank firing on a Unifil watchtower and has resulted in a growing number of casualties among the peacekeepers.

Newby and Ruffa believe that Israel wants to remove Unifil from southern Lebanon because it wants to carry out its operations without the scrutiny of an international observer. They also speculate that the sheer number of forces being moved by the IDF into south Lebanon indicates that Israel may be planning to occupy a swath of territory beyond what its military has described as a “limited, localised, and targeted” operation.

Read more:
IDF actions against UN peacekeepers suggest Israel may be considering occupying part of southern Lebanon

Meanwhile tensions are rising between Hezbollah and other sections of Lebanese society. We’ve seen this before, and it has never gone well, writes Mohamad El Kari, who has witnessed the challenges to security in Lebanon firsthand as a translator.

He fears that Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah will kick off a bout of factional infighting that could seriously destabilise a country that is already showing signs of serious social and political instability. In some areas, Kari writes, people were dancing in the streets at the news of Nasrallah’s death. Not a good sign for Lebanon’s fragile stability.

Read more:
Lebanon: assassinating sectarian leaders has always led to instability – this time will be no different

90 seconds to midnight

All this talk of escalation had me reflecting on history. I grew up during the cold war under the shadow of the nuclear threat. As a schoolboy in the 1970s, I was taken to a nuclear bunker where, in the event of a nuclear attack on the UK, key personnel would have sheltered as they ran secure communications.

As a student in the 1980s, I shared a house with several women who would spend weekends at Greenham Common airbase where they protested against the presence of nuclear weapons there. I remember the gallows humour with which we greeted the government’s Protect and Survive campaign, which encouraged building makeshift nuclear shelters under the stairs.

The peace movement of the day adapted the campaign into the slogan “protest and survive” and the Raymond Briggs graphic novel When the Wind Blows darkly lampooned the government’s advice with its portrayal of an elderly couple following the government’s instructions with predictably tragic results.

In 1984, Britain was horrified by the BBC film, Threads, a docudrama based on the idea of a nuclear attack on Sheffield. The premise called for a confrontation between Nato and the Warsaw Pact after a US-sponsored coup in Iran. It showed how quickly an international crisis could degenerate into global nuclear conflict and, in turn, how quickly societal collapse was likely to follow.

Then in the 1990s the nuclear threat seemed to diminish. The collapse of the Soviet Union and treaties to limit the spread of nuclear weapons and decommission existing stockpiles meant that, for most of us anyway, the idea of a nuclear holocaust receded to almost nothing.

The BBC docudrama Threads shocked audiences in 1984.
BBC

The BBC recently screened the film again, to mark its 40th anniversary, and has made it available for streaming on iPlayer. The Independent’s preview of the screening noted that the Doomsday Clock, which atomic scientists use to indicate how close the world is to nuclear disaster, is set at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been. The scientists said that conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, with the prospect the latter might spread across the Middle East had made the world a much more dangerous place in 2024. And so it has come to pass.

Philosopher Mark Lacy was shown the film as a schoolboy and doesn’t intend to watch it again. But he’s an expert in the changing nature of warfare and he has seen how conflicts can explode out of “accidents, miscalculations and errors of strategic judgement”.

He is concerned that, unlike in the cold war where events were largely controlled by “rational actors” who were all too aware of the potential for “mutually assured destruction” and made their calculations accordingly, today’s leaders may not act with the same circumspection. And this is what makes the world a much more dangerous place.

Read more:
Threads: the harrowing 1984 BBC docudrama is back on our screens – scary but appropriate viewing for our uncertain times

The latest edition of our podcast, The Conversation Weekly, focuses on the the Middle East question. Podcast host Gemma Ware speaks with two academic experts in Middle East politics, Amnon Aran and Mireille Rebeiz, to get a sense of what’s at stake for the region.

Read more:
What Israel and its neighbours want now as all-out war looms in the Middle East – podcast

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There is an evolutionary need for parents to protect their children from harm. One of the most difficult and important aspects of parenting is allowing children to take the necessary risks which enable them to grow.

TVO’s Old Enough!, based on a hit Japanese TV series, helps parents consider the balance between protection and creating space for children to develop independence and resilience. It shows very young children being provided the responsibility of running errands seemingly on their own.

It should be noted there are protections in place, for example as seen in Episode 1. Viewers see four-year-old Parker with supports for crossing streets, camera crews and shop keepers who are prepared for the child’s visit. It is not recommended that very young children complete errands unsupervised.

However, the show demonstrates that young children are capable, curious and competent. It encourages us to consider how we can support children in developing their confidence, self-worth and trust, and help them become independent and resilient while ensuring they feel supported and loved.

Independence begins with love

Old Enough! exemplifies many insights for parents about nurturing relationships with their children to support their emerging independence.

Secure attachment develops when a child consistently experiences a loving, attuned and responsive emotional connection, fostering a sense of trust and safety, and learning that their emotional needs will be met.

This is at the heart of raising independent and resilient children. Every experience shapes a child’s brain and influences gene expression. The emotional bond that develops from secure attachment provides children reassurance to take risks and try new things on their own. This emotional security enables them to confidently explore the world, knowing they have a secure base to return to.

In Old Enough!, viewers see glimpses of this trusting and loving relationship with five-year-old Simon and his dad David in Episode 3. Simon’s dads, David and Stephane, have different views around how much freedom Simon should have, with David feeling more protective. The episode shows Simon shopping on his own at Toronto’s St. Lawrence Market, with David outside.

Trailer for ‘Old Enough!’ Episode 3.

When the bags are too heavy, Simon drags them outside to give to David, sharing he was “dropping off a load because it was too heavy.” Simon’s dad empathically sighs in agreement.

Simon knows his dad will be waiting for him. There is no concern of where to find his dad, or apprehension his dad would be upset Simon hadn’t finished, or had taken too long. Simon flops on the sidewalk and shares his solo adventure.

His father, clearly anxious, finds a way through his own feelings to ask Simon if he will go back in to finish. Simon proudly beams yes! Upon return, he is greeted with pride and a big hug. Simon is proud of himself, stating “now I know how to shop by myself,” shining with confidence and resilience.

That Simon knows the world is safe and trustworthy was evident in his secure internal working model. This is seen in his willingness to confidently ask others for help, knowing it will be OK if he fails. His reflection “I was not even scared,” emphasizes the confidence in his relationships and secure base from which he explores the world.

Love supports courage to take on tasks

Old Enough! also shows everyday moments of independence parents can foster by allowing children to complete simple, age-appropriate tasks.

For example, viewers see Parker making her lunch, or Luther empty the dishwasher. These tasks offer them the chance to build self-reliance and problem-solving skills in manageable ways.

Love and autonomy go hand in hand. This emotional foundation provides children the courage to take on tasks, solve problems and struggle through challenges. Love is not just a form of emotional support; it is also a tool for growth.

When children are provided with opportunities to face small challenges, make decisions and manage frustration, we help them build the resilience to handle bigger challenges later in life. This approach reinforces that their loving caregiver trusts and believes in them.

Children who know they are loved unconditionally feel secure in their worth and are more likely to navigate the complexities of life with a sense of inner stability. This emotional foundation prevents them from relying heavily on external validation because they have internalized their worth and value.

As children grow, having a balanced view of themselves, their relationships and the world prepares them to manage peer pressure, bullying and setbacks, reinforcing the understanding of their worth isn’t determined by others’ opinions.

Parents’ own attachment experiences

Parents can support their children’s journey toward independence and resilience by encouraging small acts of autonomy.

Letting children make their own choices, take on responsibilities and engage in problem-solving helps build their confidence. At the same time, parents should be emotionally available, offering comfort and support without taking over. This balance of trust and love gives children the necessary tools to become both independent and resilient, knowing they can face challenges and are always supported.

Parents who want to do more to support their children’s autonomy while maintaining a close connection often find that making changes can be difficult. This is especially the case if they have not experienced secure attachment, unconditional love or have a history of relational trauma.

Managing the real fear and anxiety of stepping back, perhaps fearing your child will feel unloved, can feel incredibly challenging. In Old Enough! such feelings are expressed by Ohelya’s mom, Arfina, in Episode 8, who shares she had to grow up faster than most of her friends and she wants to protect her daughter from this experience, allowing her to enjoy childhood.

Trailer for ‘Old Enough!’ Episode 8.

For parents, it’s important to separate your fears and anxieties from what is real for your child, and ensure your history and experiences do not negatively impact your child’s opportunities for growth and development. Be kind and patient with yourself and your child during this process.

Watch, wait and wonder

Parents can consider using a strategy such as “watch, wait and wonder”:

Watch: observe your child without intervening.
Wait: allow them the time and space to explore and play independently.
Wonder: reflect on their needs and your responses.

By acknowledging and managing your own fears and anxieties, you create space to see your child truly sparkle.

Learn and know who your child is, what their strengths are and what they need support with. It’s never to late to let children show you what they are capable of and reveal their amazing self. With consistency, you will build a deep meaningful connection built on trust and love, which will last a lifetime. Läs mer…

Most of us have been there: a night of fun turns into a morning of regret – complete with a pounding headache, nausea and fatigue.

While there are plenty of supposed hangover “cures” out there – from eating a greasy breakfast to the ill-advised “hair-of-the-dog” – a recent paper suggests that regular exercise may be the key to alleviating these dreadful mornings.

The study, published in the journal Addictive Behaviours, involved 1,676 undergraduate students who had experienced at least one hangover in the past three months. All participants did at least 30 minutes of moderate physical activity per week. They completed online questionnaires assessing their alcohol consumption patterns, physical activity levels and the frequency and severity of hangover symptoms. Activity levels were scored by calculating the intensity of the activity against the number of hours.

The findings indicated a significant association between physical activity and hangover symptoms. Unsurprisingly, people who consumed more alcohol experienced hangovers more frequently and with greater severity. But, these associations were reduced in people who engaged in vigorous physical activity (such as running) – suggesting that higher levels of exercise may reduce the severity of hangover symptoms.

While the study only established a correlation between exercise and reduced hangover severity, several mechanisms may help explain why physical activity could mitigate hangover symptoms.

1. Modulates pain response

Hangovers often cause physical pain, such as headaches and muscle aches, due to several factors. Alcohol leads to dehydration, which affects the way the blood vessels function and reduces fluid levels around the brain. This can trigger headaches.

Alcohol also promotes inflammation in the body, leading to the release of immune system molecules called cytokines, which can cause muscle aches. Additionally, alcohol disrupts sleep, which can increase pain sensitivity the next day.

Some studies have also noted that the concentration of alcohol you have in your blood after a night of drinking is also linked to common hangover symptoms, such as pain.

But exercise triggers the release of endorphins – hormones produced by the brain which serve as natural painkillers. Regular exercise may even elevate your baseline endorphin levels. This could potentially lead to a lower perception of pain and discomfort during a hangover.

2. Better quality sleep

Hangovers tend to be accompanied by poor quality sleep. Alcohol reduces REM sleep, which is the part of the sleep cycle that helps the brain rest and recover. Drinking can also make you wake up more throughout the night because alcohol causes your body to lose fluids – making you need to use the bathroom more often.

But regular exercise is linked to better sleep patterns by helping to regulate the circadian rhythm. Overall, physical activity can improve sleep duration, sleep quality and reduce the number of times you wake up during the night. This may in turn help you get a better night’s sleep after drinking – which could improve your overall recovery from a hangover.

3. Improves metabolism

Regular physical activity contributes to better metabolic health, which may facilitate the efficient processing of alcohol.

While the liver primarily metabolises alcohol, having a good metabolic rate can help clear alcohol and its byproducts from the system more effectively.

Exercise is good for metabolic health – which may help clear alcohol from our systems.
PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/ Shutterstock

Exercise also improves circulation, which may also aid in flushing out acetaldehyde. This is a toxic chemical released by alcohol when the body metabolises it. Acetaldehyde significantly contributes to hangover symptoms.

4. Reduces inflammation

Alcohol triggers an inflammatory response (the body’s defence mechanism that works against harmful pathogens and substances) which can exacerbate hangover symptoms.

It releases chemicals called cytokines that promote inflammation, which helps fight off infections or injuries. However, in the case of a hangover, this inflammation can worsen symptoms such as headaches, muscle aches, fatigue and sensitivity to light and sound. The body’s heightened immune response amplifies these discomforts, making the hangover feel more intense.

But exercise has well-documented anti-inflammatory properties as it stimulates the production of anti-inflammatory cytokines. This means regular exercisers could experience less inflammation-related discomfort during hangovers.

The hangover cure?

It’s important to clarify that while exercise might help make hangovers more bearable, it’s not a cure. The most effective way to prevent a hangover is to drink in moderation – or avoid it altogether. But for those who choose to indulge, integrating regular physical activity into your lifestyle might just make hangovers a little less debilitating.

However, there are a few things that aren’t quite clear from the study. For example, it isn’t clear how soon before a night of drinking you should work out to see benefits on hangover severity. This makes it difficult to say whether regular exercisers have less severe hangovers, or whether having worked out before a night out helps manage hangover symptoms.

The study was also conducted using undergraduate students, whose drinking and physical activity levels may differ from older adults. Research in different age groups will be important to see if the benefits are similar.

It’s also crucial to distinguish between the benefits of consistent exercise and the impulse to work out while hungover. The latter can be counterproductive, as the body is already dehydrated and under stress. This may make your hangover feel worse.

Instead, try doing gentle, low-effort activities during a hangover – such as a walk or yoga. This may help boost your mood.

While this recent study’s findings shouldn’t be seen as providing an excuse to overindulge, it does highlight the ways that exercise equips the body to better handle the aftermath of a night of drinking – potentially making those rough mornings a bit more manageable. Läs mer…

Consumers of western media could be forgiven for supposing that Ukraine, the state whose sovereignty was violated so brutally with the Russian invasion of February 2022, enjoys unstinting support from its western neighbour Poland. The support of the Polish government has been unambiguous. Donations of military equipment and humanitarian support for refugees have been second to none in Europe.

The election of a new government at the end of 2023 made no discernible difference to the Polish commitment. Antipathy towards Russia in Poland has strong roots, dating back even before the days when much of the country (including Warsaw) was formally incorporated into the Romanovs’ Russian empire.

Observers in the west take it for granted that the pro-Ukrainian policies of successive Polish governments – endorsed by the Catholic churches – reflect views shared by citizens throughout the country.

But after more than two years of war, as I found during a recent research trip, doubts are being voiced in some segments of society.

Farmers have been angry for years. Ukraine has rich soils and its agribusiness is free from EU regulations. In the exceptional conditions created by the invasion, with the government desperately in need of revenue, Ukraine has been allowed to export its cheap grain to the EU. This has undermined the market for Polish farmers. Some Poles event believe that, since much Ukrainian farmland is owned by foreign capital, the prolongation of the war has been orchestrated by the west for economic reasons.

Similar arguments can be heard concerning energy. The end of cheap gas from the Russian Federation promises a bonanza for the producers of alternative supplies, notably in the United States at the expense of higher prices for Polish households. I also heard in plenty of conversations that Poland is the only ally of Ukraine to provide military hardware free of charge – whereas other Nato states insist on full payment or offer credits that will theoretically have to be repaid one day.

The resentments run deep and they affect large sections of the population. Why do I have to wait months for my hospital appointment, people ask – is it because of increased demand for health services from the millions of Ukrainian refugees? Why should my taxes pay for generous financial grants to Ukrainians who turn up at the border, claim the cash, and promptly return home?

A tangled history

Most educated citizens dismiss such allegations with scorn. Those who complain and exaggerate isolated abuses are often written off as gullible victims of Russian propaganda. But Poles are unlikely dupes. Monuments to communist crimes are everywhere – above all the Katyń massacres of 1940, when the Soviet security forces murdered thousands of Polish officers. More recently, many Poles still suspect the Kremlin’s complicity in the plane crash that killed their then president, Lech Kaczyński in Smolensk in 2010.

Yet hatred of Russia does not translate into unconditional support for Ukraine.

The enduring reason for friction between the two states has to do with diverging interpretations of violence which took place during and after the second world war. Ukrainian ministers have the undiplomatic habit of pointing out that large areas of present-day Poland were formerly occupied by Ukrainians. According to the historical ethno-linguistic and religious criteria generally considered central in the formation of peoples, Ukraine might indeed have a stronger claim to sections of the Polish Carpathians than it has to Crimea or Donbas.

Does this help explain why the Polish government upholds the sanctity of Ukraine’s border with Russia? They want Ukraine’s border with their country to be equally sacrosanct.

The typical Polish response to Ukrainian nationalist goading is to point out that Poles used to form the majority in most towns of western Ukraine – and that Lviv itself was a Polish city until Stalin redrew the borders in 1944 and the Polish population was deported westwards. These eastern borderlands are known to Poles as the Kresy. They are the focus of strong emotions and mythology. The Kresy is imagined as a harmonious realm in which, for many centuries, cultivated Poles ruled benignly over all other nationalities.

Cultural heritage: monument in Lviv, Ukraine to Adam Mickiewicz, Poland‘s national poet, born in Vilnius (now Lithuania) in 1798.
Ruslan Lytvyn/Alamy Stock Photo

This multiculturalism came to an abrupt end in the 1940s. These days, Poles with family roots in Volhynia and Galicia, much of which is now in western Ukraine, are incensed by Kyiv’s refusal to admit that Ukrainian nationalists were responsible for the ethnic cleansing of the Polish population. Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, recently made it clear that Poland’s continued support for admitting Ukraine to the EU will depend on coming to terms with this dark past.

Western complicity

During my recent visit, I was sometimes asked why the BBC and other influential western media never probed behind the slick public face of Volodymyr Zelensky’s team to report on the real conditions and opinions of ordinary Ukrainians. Instead, Russians are demonised and Ukrainians hailed for their “European values” and their sacrifices on behalf of the west.

Coverage in Polish state media conveys a similar message – but I found many citizens have become sceptical. There is pity for conscripts, sorrow for the loss of young lives on both sides and fear for where all this dehumanising violence is leading. But few of the people I spoke with believed that Russians are the only party violating the Geneva Conventions.

Often, the conversation turned to Boris Johnson. I was asked to explain why the then prime minister advised Zelensky in April 2022 that Ukraine should continue the fighting. Did Johnson, as has often been rumoured, sabotage proposals for a negotiated peace carefully drawn up in Istanbul shortly before his visit? Was it the spontaneous whim of a western politician who knew nothing about regional history, a clown playing macho games with Zelensky for the sake of his own image? Did he not care at all about the hundreds of thousands who would suffer and die if this war continued? Was he pursuing a devious strategy agreed with EU leaders and Nato partners, above all Washington?

I did not have answers to any of these questions. Läs mer…

As the world races to meet net-zero targets, emissions from all industrial sectors must be reduced more urgently than ever. Agriculture is an important area of focus as it contributes up to 22% of global greenhouse gas emissions – almost as much as the energy sector.

One approach to decarbonising the agricultural sector is agrivoltaics. It involves integrating solar panels – or photovoltaics (PVs) – into fields of crops, greenhouses and livestock areas, which can help farmers reduce their carbon footprint while continuing to produce food.

Agrivoltaics can also mitigate one of the main criticisms often made of solar power – that solar farms “waste” vast tracts of agricultural land that could otherwise be used for food production. In reality, solar farms currently occupy only 0.15% of the UK’s total land – not much compared to its 70% agricultural land.

The simplest example of an agrivoltaic system would be conventional, crystalline silicon PVs (the market-leading type of solar panels), installed in fields alongside livestock. This method of farm diversification has become increasingly popular in recent years for three main reasons.

First, it enhances biodiversity as the fields are not seeing a regular crop rotation, being monocultured, or being harvested for silage. Second, it increases production as livestock benefit from the shade and the healthier pasture growth.

Finally, the solar farm has reduced maintenance costs because livestock can keep the grass short. All this is achieved while the solar panels provide locally-generated, clean energy.

But if they’re not set up properly, agrivoltaics may cause problems. One of the most important challenges is balancing the need for sunlight between crops and solar panels. Crops need light to grow, and if solar panels block too much sunlight, they can negatively impact crop yields.

This issue varies from place to place. In countries with fewer sunny days like the UK, the panels need to let more sunlight through. But in places like Spain or Italy, some shade can actually help crops by reducing the stress of intense heat during summer months. Finding the right balance is tricky, as it depends on local conditions, the type of crop, and even the needs of pollinators like bees.

An agrivoltaic canopy installed in France.
Jacopo Landi/Shutterstock

The complexity deepens when we consider the type of PV material used. Traditional solar panels aren’t always suitable because they often block the wavelengths (colours) of light needed by plants.

This is where newer materials, like organic semiconductors and perovskites, are ideal as they can be customised to let crops get the light they need while still generating energy. Unlike traditional inorganic semiconductors, which are essentially crystals of metal and metalloid atoms, organic semiconductors are molecules mainly made of carbon and hydrogen. Perovskites, meanwhile, are like a hybrid of the two.

But there are thousands of combinations of these materials to choose from, with scientific literature containing a plethora of options. Figuring out which one works best can be a daunting task.

This is where computational tools can make a big difference. Instead of testing each material in real-world conditions – which would take years and be incredibly expensive – researchers can use simulations to predict their performance. These models can help identify the best materials for specific crops and climates, saving both time and resources.

The tool

We have developed an open-source tool that helps compare various PV materials, making it easier to identify the best options for agrivoltaics. Our tool uses geographical data and realistic simulations of how different PV materials perform.

It considers how light travels through these materials and reflects off them, as well as other important performance measures like voltage and power output. The tool can also take lab-based measurements of PV materials and apply them to real-world scenarios.

Using this tool, we simulated how much power different PV materials could generate per square metre over the course of a year, across various regions. And we calculated how much light passed through these materials to ensure it was enough for crops to thrive.

An agrivoltaic installation over raspberry crops in the Netherlands.
Jacopo Landi/Shutterstock

By running these simulations for multiple materials, we could identify the most suitable options for specific crops and climates.

Tools like ours could play a critical role in decarbonising the agricultural sector by guiding the design of agrivoltaic systems. Future research could combine these simulations with economic and environmental impact analyses. This would help us understand how much energy we can expect from a solar panel over its lifetime compared to the resources and costs involved in producing it.

Ultimately, our tool could help researchers and policymakers in selecting the most efficient, cost-effective and eco-friendly ways to decarbonise agriculture and move us closer to achieving global net-zero emissions.

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Considered one of the great composers of the 20th century, the deeply expressive Béla Bartók synthesised elements of folk music of Hungarian and related cultures into classical forms, producing a style that was both individual and influential.

Through Bartók’s music, powerful elements of local folk melodies are performed and heard in concert halls worldwide. For the 80th anniversary of the composer’s death coming up in 2025, the University of Plymouth’s Musica Viva – of which I am founder and director – is planning a series of concerts celebrating the notion of the “music of home” as brought to life by Bartók, by including one of his pivotal works in every concert. His Piano Sonata, String Quartet No. 3, String Quartet No. 5 and Music for Strings, Percussion and Celesta will all be performed by leading artists.

Bartók in 1903 at the age of 22.
Archivah / Alamy

From the start, the young Bartók, born in 1881, displayed a fascination with music, and his widowed mother encouraged his musical gifts. When the family moved to Pozsony, a former region of Hungary that now lies mostly within Slovakia, he began a formal musical education and attended concerts for the first time.

As an 18-year-old student of piano and composition at the Budapest Conservatory, Bartók immersed himself in the musical dramas of Wagner and the orchestral works of Liszt. But his primary focus was the piano, and he became known as a pianist of extraordinary abilities, playing the music of Chopin, Liszt and Robert Schumann.

During his last years as a student, nationalist currents in Hungary – which had been suppressed since the uprising in 1848-1849 – became resurgent. Caught up in this movement, Bartók devoted considerable thought to issues of a national music.

It is not surprising that under this influence and that of the music of Richard Strauss, his first major composition in 1903 was a vast symphonic poem called Kossuth, a Hungarian “Hero’s Life” – whose ten tableaux depict events of the 1948-49 war of independence. This work was followed by the Liszt-inspired Rhapsody for Piano and Orchestra in 1904.

Bartók’s interest in folk music grew to the point at which he and his friend and fellow composer Zoltán Kodály travelled throughout central Europe, Turkey, and north Africa to collect folk melodies. Bartók wrote five books and many articles on folk music.

He considered his most interesting finds to be from isolated Hungarian communities living among the foothills of the Carpathian Mountains, where he encountered and recorded authentic, untainted Magyar folk music. His fascination with the unbridled spirit of this music helped him gradually develop a compositional style in which he fused folk elements with highly developed techniques of classical music more intimately than had ever been done before.

Between the two world wars Bartók performed as a concert pianist, touring Britain, the US and the former USSR, and was prolific as a composer. Elements of his style include melodic lines derived from eastern European folk music; powerful forward-leaning rhythms in irregular meters with off-beat accents; strong control of form; and harmonies which, although primarily focused on one key, often include elements of multiple keys thereby creating a sense of musical tension.

Paramount among his piano works is his only Piano Sonata, written in 1926, which is also his largest composition for solo piano. It was composed during a particularly prolific year during which he also composed his First Piano Concerto, Out of Doors Suite and Nine Little Piano Pieces – all works which he included in his own public performances.

The Sonata is in three movements and follows a classic sonata form – a lively first movement, a slower second movement and an energetic finale in which the lively main theme recurs in different guises. The full resources of the piano are used in creating a wide spectrum of expression, from incisive detached clusters of notes to smoothly flowing lyrical melodic lines.

Throughout, the music is inspired by Bartók’s ethnomusicological (social and cultural) research. Although the themes are not folk melodies per se, they imitate their style in terms of melodic shaping, searing dynamics, driving rhythmic features and harmonic content. The piano is used in new percussive ways that often seem a vivid portrayal of folk passions. At the time this was groundbreaking.

Bartók’s contribution to the musical repertoire is immense. He composed six String Quartets, Sonata for Two Pianos and Percussion, a large canon of solo piano music as well as chamber music, and an opera, Bluebeard’s Castle. The Concerto for Orchestra, three Piano Concerti, and the Violin Concerto are all masterpieces in large-scale musical forms.

Bartók was still creative and composing towards the end of his life.
Interfoto / Alamy

Bartók emigrated to the US in 1940 and found temporary employment at Columbia University. His health deteriorated along with his financial situation, although his friends Joseph Szigeti and Fritz Reiner arranged for the Koussevitzky Foundation to commission him to write the Concerto for Orchestra in 1943 and the Sonata for Solo Violin in 1944, which provided temporary relief from a dismal situation.

Bartok died on September 26, 1945, with the score of his Viola Concerto unfinished, but he left behind an unparalleled canon of music that is deeply expressive and vital to our musical understanding today. Läs mer…

The artificial intelligence boom has already changed how we understand technology and the world. But developing and updating AI programs requires a lot of computing power. This relies heavily on servers in data centres, at a great cost in terms of carbon emissions and resource use.

One particularly energy intensive task is “training”, where generative AI systems are exposed to vast amounts of data so that they improve at what they do.

The development of AI-based systems has been blamed for a 48% increase in Google’s greenhouse gas emissions over five years. This will make it harder for the tech giant to achieve its goal of reaching net zero by 2030.

Some in the industry justify the extra energy expenditure from AI by pointing to benefits the technology could have for environmental sustainability and climate action. Improving the efficiency of solar and wind power through predicting weather patterns, “smart” agriculture and more efficient, electric autonomous vehicles are among the purported benefits of AI for the Earth.

It’s against this background that tech companies have been looking to renewables and nuclear fission to supply electricity to their data centres.

Nuclear fission is the type of nuclear power that’s been in use around the world for decades. It releases energy by splitting a heavy chemical element to form lighter ones. Fission is one thing, but some in Silicon Valley feel a different technology will be needed to plug the gap: nuclear fusion.

Unlike fission, nuclear fusion produces energy by combining two light elements to make a heavier one. But fusion energy is an unproven solution to the sustainability challenge of AI. And the enthusiasm of tech CEOs for this technology as an AI energy supply risks sidelining the potential benefits for the planet.

Beyond the conventional

Google recently announced that it had signed a deal to buy energy from small nuclear reactors. This is a technology, based on nuclear fission, that allows useful amounts of power to be produced from much smaller devices than the huge reactors in big nuclear power plants. Google plans to use these small reactors to generate the power needed for the rise in use of AI.

This year, Microsoft announced an agreement with the company Constellation Energy, which could pave the way to restart a reactor at Pennsylvania’s Three Mile Island nuclear power station, the site of the worst nuclear accident in US history.

However, nuclear power produces long-lived radioactive waste, which needs to be stored securely. Nuclear fuels, such as the element uranium (which needs to be mined), are finite, so the technology is not considered renewable. Renewable sources of energy, such as solar and wind power suffer from “intermittency”, meaning they do not consistently produce energy at all hours of the day.

Sam Altman says fusion could be an answer to the issue of AI’s power demands.
jamesonwu1972 / Shutterstock

These limitations have driven some to look to look to nuclear fusion as a solution. Most notably, Sam Altman of OpenAI has shown particular interest in Helion Energy, a fusion startup working on a relatively novel technological design.

In theory, nuclear fusion offers a “holy grail” energy source by generating a large output of energy from small quantities of fuel, with no greenhouse gas emissions from the process and comparatively little radioactive waste. Some forms of fusion rely on a fuel called deuterium, a form of hydrogen, which can be extracted from an abundant source: seawater.

In the eyes of its advocates, like Altman, these qualities make nuclear fusion well suited to meet the challenges of growing energy demand in the face of the climate crisis –- and to meet the vast demands of AI development.

However, dig beneath the surface and the picture isn’t so rosy. Despite the hopes of its proponents, fusion technologies have yet to produce sustained net energy output (more energy than is put in to run the reactor), let alone produce energy at the scale required to meet the growing demands of AI. Fusion will require many more technological developments before it can fulfil its promise of delivering power to the grid.

Wealthy and powerful people, such as the CEOs of giant technology companies, can strongly influence how new technology is developed. For example, there are many different technological ways to perform nuclear fusion. But the particular route to fusion that is useful for meeting the energy demands of AI might not be the one that’s ideal for meeting people’s general energy needs.

AI is reliant on data centres which consume lots of energy.
Dil_Ranathunga / Shutterstock

The overvaluation of innovation

Innovators often take for granted that their work will produce ideal social outcomes. If fusion can be made to work at scale, it could make a valuable contribution to decarbonising our energy supplies as the world seeks to tackle the climate crisis.

However, the humanitarian promises of both fusion and AI often seem to be sidelined in favour of scientific innovation and progress. Indeed, when looking at those invested in these technologies, it is worth asking who actually benefits from them.

Will investment in fusion for AI purposes enable its wider take-up as a clean technology to replace polluting fossil fuels? Or will a vision for the technology propagated by powerful tech companies restrict its use for other purposes?

It can sometimes feel as if innovation is itself the goal, with much less consideration of the wider impact. This vision has echoes of Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s motto of “move fast and break things”, where short-term losses are accepted in pursuit of a future vision that will later justify the means. Läs mer…

Think of flood prevention and you might imagine huge concrete dams, levees or the shiny Thames barrier. But some of the most powerful tools for reducing flood risk are far more natural and widely recognisable: woodlands and green spaces. Trees offer much more than beauty and oxygen. Here’s how trees help to protect us from floods.

1. Intercepting rainfall

Trees and green spaces hold the key to protecting us against flooding. When rain falls on a forest, trees play a vital role in managing water flow. The canopy of a forest acts like a giant umbrella, catching and holding rainwater before it hits the ground.

This slows down how quickly rain reaches the soil, allowing water to gradually seep into the earth instead of rushing over the ground and straight into rivers and watercourses. This delayed water flow can reduce peak water levels in rivers during heavy storms, helping to prevent flash floods.

One of us (Martina) was involved in a two-year study, which has not been peer reviewed, that used sensor equipment to measure the speed and level of surface water at various locations along two streams in the Menstrie catchment area in Scotland: one with greater tree cover and another with less.

The stream with more trees appeared to have consistently reduced flow discharges compared with the more barren stream. This suggests that young forests may be able to dramatically reduce water runoff during rainfall, potentially preventing water from overwhelming streams and rivers.

As trees grow and mature, their effect on water management could become even more significant. This study adds to a growing body of evidence that shows forests offer a natural defence against floods.

Trees are one of our best allies in adapting to the increasing risks posed by climate change. Trees also remove water from catchments via evapotranspiration, whereby moisture evaporates from the surface of the soil and is released from the plant’s leaves and other surfaces.

Importantly, these processes aren’t just relevant at the scale of rural, catchments. We can use the benefits of trees and plants in our towns and cities as targeted small-scale interventions.

The Menstrie catchment during the process of planting more trees.

2. Keeping rivers clean

Trees help keep rivers clean and healthy. When there are no trees, rain can wash away a lot of soil (and pollutants) into rivers. This might lead to them having a reduced capacity to convey water. But tree roots act like anchors, binding the soil in place and preventing it from flowing into rivers.

This keeps the rivers clear and stops sedimentation, helping them cope with flood waters better. That, in turn, can prevent flooding and maintain river capacity to protect against future flooding.

In places like the Menstrie catchment, planting trees around rivers helps trap dirt and sediment in the upper parts of the river, keeping the lower parts cleaner.

Ploughed ground can better capture sediment across the catchment because the plough lines act as barriers. They keep the sediment in place more efficiently than other techniques, such as hand-screefing (when someone clears a small spot of ground by hand to plant a tree) and excavator mounding (a process that uses a machine to build little hills to help trees grow better in wet areas), which were less successful in containing the sediment.

Evidence shows that trees are essential for long-term soil stabilisation. Cultivation methods and forestry practices therefore play a crucial role in managing erosion and sediment flow.

3. Absorbing and storing water like sponges

Trees improve the soil’s ability to soak up water. Their roots channel deep into the ground, creating preferential flow paths that allow water to absorb into the soil profile, rather than run off on the surface. This process helps reduce the amount of water rushing towards rivers and streams after a heavy rainstorm, which is a major factor in slowing the flow of water and reducing flooding.

How trees are planted, the slope of the land and the type of soil all affect how much water runs off during rainfall. Different planting techniques affect water runoff differently depending on the amount of rain.

During floods, some areas with trees planted (that includes plots with plough cultivation and excavation mounding) have less water runoff compared with unplanted areas without trees.

4. Reducing surface runoff

When heavy rain falls on bare land, water runs off quickly, which can cause floods. Trees, with their roots and fallen leaves, slow this down by helping the ground soak up more water.

This reduces how much water flows into rivers all at once, helping to prevent floods. Planting trees using different layouts, densities and patterns can make this even more effective by helping trees grow better and absorb more water, thereby reducing runoff.

Runoff monitoring results from the Menstrie catchment, Scotland.

5. Stopping floodwaters

In Somerset, England tree planting projects along rivers, such as those under the Environment Agency’s initiative, have played a crucial role in reducing flood risks.

Since 2020, almost 30,000 trees and shrubs were planted across multiple sites to help slow water flow and protect communities vulnerable to flooding. These trees were strategically placed along riverbanks, including in the Parrett catchment in Somerset, an area known to be prone to flooding.

Underground, tree roots drink up lots of water, slowing how quickly the rainwater flows. And when floodwater hits a forest, the tree trunks act like a natural barrier or wall, slowing the water down so it doesn’t rush all at once to other areas and cause bigger floods. By planning and planting forests to build climate resilience, these positive effects can become even stronger.

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Lucy Letby, a former neonatal nurse, was convicted after two trials of murdering seven babies and attempting to murder seven more at the Countess of Chester Hospital. Sentenced to life imprisonment following a case which many believe was built on circumstantial evidence, Letby has consistently maintained her innocence.

In a recent interview on LBC, the UK government’s health secretary, Wes Streeting, was asked for his opinion on those questioning the safety of Letby’s convictions.

Streeting’s reply urged campaigners to place their faith in the judicial and appellate processes to identify and correct their mistakes, if any. He added that there was no purpose in campaigning as it would have no impact and that if people insisted on doing so, they should do it “quietly”.

But my research shows that Streeting’s comments are not reflective of the broader history of miscarriages of justice.

Wes Streeting on Lucy Letby’s conviction.

Letby’s first trial was preceded by the publication of a report by the Royal Statistical Society in September 2022 detailing how statistical issues in the investigation of suspected murders in medical settings can contribute to causing miscarriages of justice. It drew attention to the case of Dutch nurse Lucia de Berk who was convicted in circumstances which shared striking similarities with the Letby case.

Almost six months after Letby’s conviction in August 2023, the New Yorker magazine published an article challenging the prosecution’s account of events. And a body called Science on Trial, which calls out “problematic science”, also began raising questions. This sparked further scrutiny from journalist Peter Hitchens, who continues to express his doubts in the press.

National publications, radio programmes and TV broadcasts featuring prominent medical experts have also raised doubts about the evidence used at trial.

Lucy Letby.
Cheshire Constabulary

Politicians, like David Davis, began voicing concerns both inside and outside parliament, intensifying the debate around the safety of Letby’s conviction.

The Letby campaign stands out as an alleged miscarriage of justice because there are very few cases in which so many people have moved so quickly, and so publicly, to raise concerns.

Lessons from history

Miscarriages of justice are not new and are often very difficult to put right. The history of miscarriages of justice is littered with failed appeals and unsuccessful applications submitted by prisoners to the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC), the body now responsible for investigating and referring them back to the Court of Appeal.

For example, Andrew Malkinson spent 17 years in prison for a crime he didn’t commit. Even after DNA evidence excluded him as the perpetrator, his case was essentially blocked from proceeding to appeal by the very system designed to identify such errors. Had it not been for sustained public campaigning and an investigation spearheaded by the legal charity Appeal, his conviction would probably not have been quashed.

Streeting’s argument that “there is no purpose in a campaign” overlooks the effect organised calls for justice have had. Campaigns like those for the Birmingham Six – in which six men spent 16 years in prison for a crime of which they were entirely innocent – led to significant reforms. These include the establishment of the CCRC itself. Without public scrutiny and outcry, these changes would not have been achieved.

The Birmingham Six were each sentenced to life imprisonment in 1975 following their false convictions for pub bombings in Birmingham in 1974. They were finally exonerated in March 1991.
PA Images/Alamy

My research shows that an important goal of justice campaigns is to “gain a voice” – to raise questions, build support and influence outcomes. This can sometimes lead to convictions being overturned. These campaigns are typically led by the prisoner’s family, whose fight to be heard is often a long and arduous journey.

Some families eventually manage to engage journalists who help them gain a voice in the mainstream media. This oxygen of publicity may, in turn, attract the attention of those whose intervention might further strengthen the campaign, such as specialist experts, lawyers and other professionals.

These individuals may lend their knowledge, skills and expertise to a case and sometimes even go public with their concerns. This often pressures people in positions of authority to respond.

The “campaigning voice” can also draw the attention of investigative journalists who specialise in re-examining alleged miscarriages of justice. When they take interest, their thorough and often obsessive work can uncover new evidence, sometimes strong enough to convince the Court of Appeal to overturn a conviction.

The judiciary itself has acknowledged the transformative role of such journalists. But it’s important to note that families usually have to wage a long and loud campaign before reaching this point.

A court artist sketch of Nicholas Johnson KC cross-examining nurse Lucy Letby as she appeared in front of Manchester Crown Court.
PA Images / Alamy

Why the Letby case is different

Although Letby’s parents have stuck by her from the start, they have rarely spoken publicly.

In this case, the voices shouting the loudest, and refusing to be quiet, belong to eminent statisticians, epidemiologists, neonatologists, pediatricians and biochemical engineers. These are the types of people that most miscarriage campaigns spend years trying to attract. The sheer number speaking out is unprecedented.

So too is the swift involvement of John Sweeney, a journalist who specialises in investigating what researchers call “no crime miscarriages”. These are cases where people are convicted for crimes that never happened.

The speed with which these professionals and others have raised doubts about the Letby convictions is highly unusual, especially given the severity of the convictions. My work shows that people convicted of especially horrific crimes often struggle to establish campaigns that question whether the justice system got it wrong.

While it’s now widely accepted that juries, judges and the CCRC can make mistakes, justice systems tend to fiercely protect their decisions and reputations in such cases. Although no one can at this time say for certain whether or not Letby’s convictions are unsafe, research shows that public campaigns – and campaigning loudly – can make a difference. Läs mer…