Gladiator II: a wavering thumbs up for a rehashed sequel that can’t escape the ghost of Russell Crowe

“I will not be your instrument in this life or the next,” utters Paul Mescal’s Lucius halfway through Ridley Scott’s sequel to his 2000 blockbuster, Gladiator. These words are far from an isolated nod to iconic moments in that original film, but one of a litany of rehashed moments which are often done bigger – but not necessarily better.

As expected, there is bloody action from the outset, as well as killer baboons, rhino-riding warriors and even a shark-infested Colosseum. But this comes at a cost, as Gladiator II sacrifices subtlety and plausibility.

It’s hard to escape the feeling this film is just chasing the box office, in the hope of another instalment. Where the original used a progressive incline of believable gladiatorial set pieces that ramp up the danger, the sequel punches through outlandish combat sequences before a finale that, in contrast, seems to fizzle out.

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The action makes for a fluid 148-minute runtime, but perhaps plausibility is no longer an important factor of the modern blockbuster. I believe this played an important role in establishing the original Gladiator as an epic classic, so I’m not convinced this sequel will have the same lasting impact.

Russell Crowe’s Maximus casts a shadow over Gladiator II.
AJ Pics / Alamy

From an audience perspective, it may be difficult to move past Russell Crowe’s absence from the role he embodied in blood, sweat and fury: he was Gladiator. But Mescal is a wonderful actor, and his subtle brilliance in Aftersun (2022) and All of Us Strangers (2023) assured me that this film would be in good hands.

Similarly, Pedro Pascal’s compelling television work, particularly The Last of Us (2023-2025), The Mandalorian (2019-2023) and Game of Thrones (2011-2019), filled me with confidence. Both actors do a perfectly fine job, but the extent of their acting range feels restricted.

Their craft is perhaps too submerged by the spectacle, and hindered by a respect for Crowe – which means Mescal shies away from “out-Maxing” Maximus, whose presence haunts Gladiator II through gestures, props and costume. Mescal recreates the dialogue, posture and leadership, but doesn’t quite own the role in the way Crowe did.

There are reprisals of roles from Connie Nielson as Lucilla and Derek Jacobi as Gracchus, while Denzel Washington’s Macrinus is something of a distorted echo of Oliver Reed’s Proximo.

Elsewhere, the sadistic sibling emperors Geta and Caracalla, played by Joseph Quinn and Fred Hechinger (who apparently modelled their look and mannerisms on Johnny Rotten and Sid Vicious), jointly replace the complexity of what Joaquin Phoenix achieved single-handed in his portrayal of Commodus. The joint casting, like the action, seemingly relies on “bigger is better” performances, while the original employed a less-is-more approach.

Again, it was Phoenix’s plausibility as a performer, and the more carefully staged dramatic arc within the original film, that allowed viewers to see his transition from pitiful to spiteful, highlighting the actor’s range. This is lost in the sequel, with its forced narrative of sibling rivalry that appears to come out of nowhere in order to hurry the film along.

The third act of the film seems to accelerate into a frantic rush towards a crossroads – at which point a symbolic neutral thumb may point upwards to a lucrative franchise, or downwards to a quick death, based on the chants of the viewers.

Either way, it raises the question of intention: why bring back a richly enjoyable story like this without advancing it in some way? Huge sums of money and the technical challenge of outdoing the original in special effects are doubtless the driving factors, but what about the audience?

Gladiator II is so limited by its homage to the original that it even taps the lexicon of Spartacus (1960), in what is another heavy-handed moment. An animated tapestry of vignettes from the original film opens this sequel, and later we see a close-up of Lucius’s hands, intercut with the iconography of Maximus gently brushing his fingers against waving stalks of wheat.

Although it’s not a shot-for-shot remake, it’s certainly a scenario-for-scenario duplicate (similar to George Lucas’s 2015 Star Wars: The Force Awakens and 1977’s Star Wars: A New Hope) that goes in with big spectacular set pieces while neglecting a compelling plot to develop the gladiator story.

Gladiator II is undoubtedly worth watching, if not remembering. Pascal’s four-minute arena battle as Oberyn Martell in Game of Thrones is perhaps more likely to stick in the cultural memory than some of the fighting in Gladiator II. Not because the fighting or cinematography in Game of Thrones is necessarily superior, but because characterisation and vengeance are revealed during that battle, peppering the action with story, drive and intention – all of which feel a little absent in Gladiator II.

To me, this would have been better served as a ten-part series – one which keeps the scale of the action, but also offers a space for the drama and characterisation too. It might yet happen.

Maybe the blockbuster is no longer the space for character development, but that’s not to say I was not entertained. After all, was that not the point of ancient gladiators? But go and see it for yourself – at the very least, it will make you want to watch Russell Crowe in the original again. Läs mer…

Mauritius elections landslide – why voters were determined to get Jugnauth’s government out

Mauritius’ opposition coalition – the Alliance of Change – won the country’s 10 November 2024 election by a landslide, taking all the seats in parliament. Its leader, Navin Ramgoolam, has been appointed prime minister.

Mauritian politics scholar Roukaya Kasenally spoke to The Conversation Africa about what drove this outcome.

What’s behind the opposition’s landslide win?

The win by the opposition coalition was a clear sweep. No candidates from the outgoing government were elected; it’s what’s referred to as a 60-0. Mauritius uses the “first past the post” electoral model, where candidates with the highest number of votes are elected. Each of the 20 constituencies elects three members of parliament, often resulting in a “winner-takes-all” outcome.

The opposition coalition – the Alliance of Change – received 61.38% of the popular vote and the outgoing government’s coalition got 27.3%. This is a massive victory. In the previous election in 2019, the Militant Socialist Movement, led by Pravind Jugnauth, won the election with only 37% of the popular vote.

This is the third time in Mauritius’ post independence political history that a clear sweep has happened. The first was during the 1982 election and the second in 1995. This 60-0 phenomenon usually happens when political parties have been in power for a relatively long time.

In all three instances it was clear that voters had developed “political fatigue”. This can happen when incumbents stay for two (or more) electoral cycles and abuse the state apparatus, promote a culture of patronage and nepotism and pay little or no heed to checks and balances.

In the case of the outgoing regime, Jugnauth’s government had been in power for 10 years.

Political fatigue clearly played a part in the trouncing. But there were other reasons for the opposition’s clear victory.

Jugnauth’s government had become bogged down in scandals. The 2020 Wakashio oil spill was a major one. Thousands of Mauritians took to the streets to protest against the government’s incompetence in dealing with the ecological disaster. Another was the cover-up of an alleged murder of one of the prime minister’s political agents.

Secondly, the cost of living has become extremely high as the value of the Mauritian rupee has fallen.

Thirdly, the view of many is that key institutions, like parliament, the police and parts of the judiciary, have been weakened. There’s low public trust in those institutions.

Fourth, the country has seen a proliferation of drugs. Heroin consumption, which peaked in the 1990s, is back along with a spread of synthetic drugs as Mauritius is now on the illicit trade route. Drugs are now considered to be one of the country’s most serious challenges.

The final straw was revelations from a wiretapping scandal, the week before the elections, which exposed conversations between a number of key individuals including the prime minister, the commissioner of police, ministers and members of the judiciary. The subjects of the conversations included the cover-up of the murder of a detainee. This considerably boosted the popularity of the opposition coalition right before the election.

What do the results tell us about the state of Mauritius’ democracy?

Despite the challenges, the result shows that Mauritius’ democracy is still strong and that the will of the people who voted for change was respected.

The constitution of Mauritius mandates that a general election is held every five years.

Since independence from the UK in 1968 Mauritius has held 12 general elections. For the most part, these have been run efficiently and fairly. But there have been concerns that the 2019 election was compromised.

The opposition lodged a number of complaints following the 2019 election. Ten petitions were lodged in the Mauritian supreme court exposing a number of irregularities. Although the court dismissed most of the petitions, the opposition was on high alert ahead of the latest poll to the possibility that the 2024 election might have similar irregularities or even be rigged.

But their fears proved unfounded. The professionalism and independence of the Electoral Commission Office prevailed. The outcome has dissipated any doubts concerning the integrity of the election.

How will the outgoing government be remembered?

Aside from the massive rise in the cost of living, it will be remembered for a shift towards repression.

Mauritius lost its status as a liberal democracy under Jugnauth and has become an electoral autocracy – a country where the government maintains tight control over political power.

There’s been evidence of this over the past five years. A culture of censorship and self-censorship has grown. Journalists, citizens and opposition parties have been harassed and there’s been increased citizen surveillance. State capture – a form of corruption where private interests influence a country’s policies and institutions to serve their own goals, often harming the public – became rampant.

In other ways the last five years have seen the lives of Mauritians improve.

For example, there was an increase in the minimum wage for those drawing a salary under MRU 50,000 (US$1,000). Old age pensions also rose by 385% – though some believe this was to pander to voters aged 60 years and above, who make up about 23% of the voting population.

Finally, the government will be remembered for the political agreement between the UK and Mauritius concerning the latter’s sovereignty on the Chagos islands.

What challenges lie ahead for the new government?

The prime minister, Navin Ramgoolam, has already been sworn in.

The challenges are multiple, but the urgent one is fixing the economy. The Mauritian rupee needs to be stabilised and inflation needs to be curtailed. New areas of growth also need to be identified due to an over reliance on the offshore and real estate sectors.

This is an important factor which could help to reverse Mauritius’ loss of skilled people. Mauritius ranks as the 5th most affected country by brain drain, with about 41% of Mauritian graduates leaving in search of better jobs abroad.

Finally, the opposition promised to re-establish trust in some of the core oversight institutions, such as the parliament, the police and the judiciary. This is crucial as this will help build back some of the island’s key democratic credentials that have been lost in the last 10 years. Läs mer…

Shell’s legal victory is disappointing – but this is not the end for corporate climate litigation

In the first ruling of its kind, the Dutch Hague District Court in 2021 ordered a fossil fuel company, Shell, to slash its emissions. This decision would have required the oil and gas giant to cut its emissions by 45% by 2030 (compared with 2019 levels) across its operations and beyond, including so-called “scope 3 emissions” – those arising from burning the fossil fuels Shell has sold.

However, this landmark ruling – which inspired similar lawsuits worldwide – has been overturned. Shell appealed the decision and on November 12 2024, the Hague Court of Appeal found that no emission reduction target could be imposed on the company.

While this outcome can be seen as a setback, it does not mark the end of legal strategies to rein in the climate damage of private companies. In fact, the appeal court’s decision still offers plenty of scope for further litigation.

Reading the fine print

The District Court’s decision in 2021 found that private companies, including Shell, have a duty of care to take action on climate change. In finding a legal basis for imposing an emissions target on a fossil fuel company, the ruling inspired campaigners and local authorities to initiate lawsuits against companies across the world.

This was widely seen as a turning point in the drive to make big businesses accountable for climate change, and heralded what appeared to be a new era of corporate climate litigation.

Reviewing the case, the Court of Appeal acknowledged that Shell has a general duty of care to protect Dutch residents from dangerous climate change. However, it stopped short of upholding the emissions target imposed in 2021.

Heavy rainfall caused widespread flooding in the Netherlands in July 2021.
EPA-EFE/Vincent Jannink

On scope 1 (greenhouse gases from sources owned or controlled by the company) and scope 2 (greenhouse gases emitted indirectly from the company’s consumption of purchased electricity, steam, heat or cooling) emissions, the Court of Appeal reasoned that Shell is unlikely to breach its alleged obligation to cut these emissions, arguing that the company was already progressing towards its own voluntary commitment to reduce emissions by 48% by 2030 (compared with 2019).

On scope 3 emissions, the appeals court cited a lack of scientific consensus on how much companies should be expected to cut. And even if Shell withdrew from the market, the court noted, other providers would fill the void. This ruling, however, left Shell’s responsibility for its own production largely unexamined.

What next for corporate climate litigation?

The Court of Appeal did hint at potentially fruitful legal arguments for future lawsuits by clarifying that companies should consider the consequences of expanding fossil fuel supply.

The ruling noted that Shell’s investments in new oil and gas fields could conflict with its duty of care. This is in line with an emerging scientific consensus that says keeping global warming within the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement implies no new fossil fuel projects.

The original claimant, Dutch environmental campaign group Milieudefensie, has yet to decide if it will ask the country’s supreme court to review the Court of Appeal’s decision. In such a procedure, no new facts can be introduced, and it will only review whether the appeals court had correctly applied the law. Milieudefensie’s decision to proceed will depend on the likelihood of success, potential legal costs, and the strategic value of maintaining public attention on Shell’s climate responsibilities.

Donald Pols, director of Milieudefensie, talks to reporters after the appeals court verdict.
EPA-EFE/Jeroen Jumelet

While the ruling on Shell’s appeal might undermine other lawsuits asking courts to set company-specific emission reduction targets, the affirmation by the appeals court of a general obligation for companies to reduce emissions offers plenty of room for further litigation against companies. Future cases could test how far courts will go in enforcing this obligation.

What’s more, corporate climate litigation increasingly draws on due diligence legislation, which is gaining traction across Europe and beyond. Such legislation requires corporations to set targets and develop climate transition plans.

Various lawsuits, including one against French oil company Total, already rely on such legislation, which is more specific than the broader legal grounds used by Milieudefensie in its case against Shell.

So, corporate climate litigation is far from over. But it is likely to take new directions following the Hague Court of Appeal’s ruling.

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Are professional footballers overworked? Their performance and wellbeing are definitely at risk

For some professional footballers, the ultimate sporting honour is to play – and hopefully win – for their country. A place in the international squad is highly prized and hard fought for.

But for the men’s England team, perhaps some of the shine has come off. Captain Harry Kane has openly criticised his fellow players for excusing themselves from international duty before matches in November 2024 against Greece and Ireland.

A total of nine players ruled themselves out, including Cole Palmer (Chelsea) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool), who both withdrew from the squad citing injuries.

And of course, injured players cannot perform as well as they or their fans might wish. But the implication seems to be that the players are not prioritising the national team.

Yet data suggests that fans – and Kane – should maybe give those players the benefit of the doubt. For the demands of the modern game in an overloaded football calendar are having a serious impact on players’ wellbeing and performance.

For example, one official review indicates a rise of 11% in player injuries in the Premier League during the 2023-24 season compared to the previous one. And aside from the physical damage, those injuries (most of which occur during the first half of the game) cost Premier League clubs £266 million on salaries for players who were unable to play.

The new Champions League format has also introduced controversy in terms of the additional number of games it demands. Under the new system, teams are required to play eight first-round matches instead of six. Some will then need to play additional play-off games to reach the round of 16.

Read more:
Champions League 2024: data suggests the new format could end up being fairer and more competitive

And while some analysis concludes that there has been no significant increase recently in the number of matches played at club level, it can be a different story for individual players called up by their country.

A report by FIFPro, which represents 65,000 professional footballers across the world, suggests the difference for national team players is stark. According to its calculations, a club player who participated in Euro 2024 spent 88% of their days that season on footballing commitments. For a player who didn’t take part in the European tournament, it was 81%.

The same report cites experts who believe that 25 to 39 matches should be considered as a “moderate” workload over a season, and that players should not participate in more than 55. This season, a star player like Phil Foden (Manchester City and England) is expected to play a total of 77.

A sporting chance

Footballers too have been vocal about the demands they face. Dani Carvajal (Real Madrid and Spain) has argued that it is impossible to play more than 70 games a season at full capacity.

And Manchester City (and Spain) midfielder Rodrigo Hernández (Rodri) claimed that players were seriously contemplating strike action. A few weeks after making that statement he suffered a serious injury which is expected to see him sidelined for the rest of the season.

Of course, there may be some who struggle to sympathise with the work load of extremely well paid football players. It is important to recognise that players at this elite level are athletes who put huge strain on their bodies, under extreme pressure.

And the governing bodies responsible for the sport and its players should be mindful of this. The impact of travel, different time zones and mental burnout should all be taken into account to protect the players’ health.

Squad depth is extremely important in protecting players career longevity, but clubs are restricted by financial regulations. Meanwhile, FIFPro has filed legal claims against Fifa for alleged violation (through its calendar of fixtures) of players’ fundamental employment rights including freedom of work and healthy working conditions.

For football more generally, acting to improve players’ wellbeing will not only increase performance levels and career longevity, but also likely improve the quality and competitiveness of major tournaments. If England – or any other side – crash out of tournaments because key players are injured, the responsibility should be borne at a higher level rather than on the shoulders of hardworking athletes. Läs mer…

Five ways that climate change threatens human health

As the UN’s climate summit, Cop29, gets underway in Azerbaijan this week, the effect of climate change on human health is high on the agenda. And rightly so, amid some alarming emerging statistics. By the end of this century, climate change could be the cause of more than 3 million deaths per year (around five times as many annual deaths globally of HIV and Aids).

A new report from a scientific review committee of experts called the Lancet Countdown highlights how globally people are facing “record-breaking threats” to their health as a consequence of climate change. The major climate risks include negative effects on food security (including production), spread of diseases, ecosystems, infrastructure and the economy.

Despite having contributed the least to global emissions, Africa will be most affected by climate change. This is due to the fragile economics and exposure to extreme weather events across much of the continent. But all continents, including Europe, will be negatively affected.

Everyone working in health needs to prepare for and be equipped to respond to the health consequences of the climate crisis. The Lancet highlights the opportunity “to redefine the social and environmental determinants of health”.

These are the top five priorities when it comes to climate change and human health:

1. New and emerging infectious diseases

Drastic environmental change increases the risk of catching deadly infectious diseases such as malaria, dengue and West Nile virus in new areas. Modelling shows that mosquito populations could move into different regions of Africa and South America, and into Europe. The parasitic ticks that transmit the Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus may move north from Africa into Europe as climate change takes hold.

The threat of outbreaks of new and emerging infections, and pandemics, is increasing. In 2022, the World Health Organization warned that Ebola outbreaks around Africa are becoming more frequent due to climate change, as bats – the likely source of the virus – migrate and seek new habitats to breed.

Infectious diseases are predicted to spread more easily due to climate change, and thus increase the risk of pandemics. This threat includes Lassa fever, a virus thought to be transmitted by rats. Modelling has indicated that the rats may flee fire and flood, find new habitats and thus expose greater numbers of humans to new or different viruses.

2. Food security and nutrition

Climate change exacerbates food insecurity. In Ghana, West Africa, inconsistent rainfall during the 2024 rainy season has left an estimated 1.05 million people acutely food insecure. This is the case particularly in the north of the country, an area already with a high level of food insecurity and hunger.

The UN predicts that more than 600 million people will be living in hunger by 2030, due to the impact of climate shocks and lack of aid and government action thus far.

Climate change worsens food insecurity from many different angles; from rural farmers in Ghana losing their crops due to unexpected changes in rainfall, to the impact of affordability of imports in the UK, there won’t be just hunger hotspots.

As food insecurity deteriorates, so will malnutrition globally. By 2030, between 570,000 and 1 million children under five years old will suffer from stunted growth due to climate change, also exacerbating their vulnerability to infectious diseases such as malaria.

3. Access to healthcare

Extreme weather can physically prevent people from accessing healthcare. Between 2014 and 2023, 61% of land globally experienced an increase in the number of days of extreme rainfall, compared to 1961-1990.

Flash floods have devastated Valencia in Spain, with health services anticipating increases in diarrhoea, skin infections and hepatitis A. Evidence from Ghana shows that physical access to healthcare is restricted, with patients and sometimes health workers unable to reach local health centres, and emergency referrals unable to reach hospitals.

Access to healthcare provision becomes harder during extreme weather conditions.
Riccardo Mayer/Shutterstock

The Lancet report also found that only two-thirds of countries had high or very high implementation of legally required health emergency plans. This number needs to be 100% to protect population health as extreme weather events become more frequent, unpredictable and severe.

Delays to reduce carbon emissions and attempt to rectify the situation are only adding to the issue. Global energy-related carbon emissions reached a new high in 2023, showing little signs of slowing down.

In a 2023 study conducted in Mion (northern Ghana), nearly all participants reported not being able to access a healthcare facility when they needed to at least once, due to climatic conditions. Similarly, in the Volta region in Ghana, many residents lost all their belongings during unexpected flooding in 2023 including health insurance documents. This means people cannot access vital medications or services such as insulin if diabetic, or emergency care.

4. Air quality

Air quality is one of the most locally-felt impacts of climate change, especially in heavily industrialised countries. The UK Health Security Agency estimates that around 36,000 deaths annually are attributable to air pollution in the UK, with this number jumping to 2 million in China.

This is in part due to causing new, or exacerbating existing, chronic respiratory conditions such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, which one in five people suffer with in the UK. It also reduces life expectancy through prolonged exposure, causing diseases such as coronary heart disease and lung cancer.

5. Extreme heat

In 2023, increased heat exposure put those engaged in outdoor physical activity (which includes everything from agricultural labour to recreational running) at risk of heat stress for 28% more hours than two decades ago.

Heat stress has been associated with debilitating issues such as kidney stones, exhaustion, asthma and heart attacks. Any amount of activity or movement in rising temperatures will put individuals at great risk of these conditions. This will compromise income if labour is based outdoors, population health if we can do less outside, and the ability to enjoy the outdoor world.

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World Update: where Trump’s election leaves Ukraine

It would have been interesting to have been a fly on the wall in Volodymyr Zelensky’s office on the morning of November 6 when it became clear that Donald Trump had won the US election. You can’t imagine it would have been an upbeat gathering. A lot will hang on how the 47th US president approaches his foreign policy, and Trump made plenty of noise during the campaign about how he would bring the conflict to an end and force the two sides to sit down and talk “within 24 hours” of taking office. But the devil will be in the detail when it comes to forging a peace deal.

You’d have to imagine that Zelensky and his inner circle would have gamed a Trump victory, just as they would have worked out a plan to keep a Harris administration four-square behind their war effort. It has become clear in recent weeks that Russia now has the upper hand on the battlefield. And without vast new supplies of military aid and a free hand to use that aid effectively, most analysts believe Ukraine is likely to lose. Or at least be vulnerable to pressure to sign up to a peace deal that means giving up a great deal of territory as well as the freedom to make independent decisions about its security.

The Kremlin has wasted little time in ratcheting up the pressure, saying it won’t even consider peace talks until all western aid to Ukraine is halted. Trump, for his part, has reportedly signalled his intention to start peace talks before he is even sworn in. A peace plan being reportedly considered by Trump and his advisers would include an 800-mile buffer zone policed by troops from Europe and the UK as well as a commitment from UKraine not to join Nato for at least two decades.

It’s very much an “America first” plan, writes Robert Dover, an intelligence and national security expert at the University of Hull. For those who believe, as Trump does, that the US bears too much of the financial burden for Nato, particularly in Europe, it has the bonus that Nato’s European members would bar much of the cost of any peace deal.

Zelensky, meanwhile, is offering to contribute Ukrainian troops to help in the defence of Europe, perhaps to replace US troops now stationed there. He has also pledged to open up some of Ukraine’s considerable natural resources to the US and other allies. Dover believes Zelensky is being astute in trying to to relate to Trump, the transactional dealmaker. One can see the logic in Zelensky’s thinking: for Trump, a deal he could trumpet as a major foreign policy success so early on in his presidency may be something he would find irresistible.

Europe, meanwhile, continues to pledge “unwavering support” for Ukraine. But how long this will endure without the considerable US commitment remains to be seen.

Read more:
Ukraine war: following Donald Trump’s re-election, four likely scenarios are becoming clear

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Foreign policy hawks

We’re getting an idea of what Trunp’s cabinet may look like and, on foreign policy at least, you’d be forgiven for thinking things looks pretty bleak for Ukraine – if not also for Nato itself. Trump has surrounded himself with foreign policy hawks. Many of these have China as their main focus. Trump’s vice-presidential running mate J.D. Vance famously said: “I gotta be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.” And Trump’s picks for secretary of state, Marco Rubio, and secretary of defense, Peter Hegseth, are on the record as wanting to settle the war in Ukraine as quickly as possible. The signal seems fairly clear. European entanglements must not be allowed to hinder a US focus on China as the most important adversary.

Natasha Lindstaedt has been looking in detail at Rubio’s foreign policy positions and says that while he has in the past signalled his support for Nato, co-authoring a law which would make it impossible for a president to pull the US out of Nato without congressional approval, he has also voted against bills to supply military aid to Ukraine. It’s reasonable to assume that as part of Trump’s vetting for the job of secretary of state, Rubio would have indicated his support for Trump’s plan.

So, little comfort for Kyiv there.

Read more:
Marco Rubio: Trump’s foreign policy pick might be a hopeful sign for Nato

You can read about the rest of Trump’s cabinet here (or at least, those who have been identified thus far). Chris Featherstone, who teaches US politics at York University, says they have appear very much to have been chosen more for their loyalty to Trump than anything else.

That said, there are some notable China hawks among them, which again signals that a second Trump administration might have a different foreign policy focus which would turn Washington’s attention away from conflict in Europe.

Read more:
Loyalty trumps everything – what we know about the 47th president-elect’s cabinet

‘Love triangle’

The shifting dynamic between the US, Russia and China will be interesting to watch over the next four years. Trump told former Fox News host (turned campaign surrogate) Tucker Carlson during a campaign event that he would aim to “un-unite” China and Russia, adding that the two powers were “natural enemies” because of longstanding territorial disputes.

Mutual respect? Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet at the G20 summit, June 2019.
DACameron / Alamy Stock Photo

Trump’s not wrong about these and the two countries have come to blows in the past over disputed land in Siberia. But Putin and Xi have spent the past few years talking about their “no-limits friendship”, so it’s a matter for conjecture whether Trump can drive a wedge between the two of them, particularly given their close political alignment.

Xi and Putin also share a belief in America’s inevitable decline, writes Stefan Wolff, an expert in international security at the University of Birmingham. Meanwhile China will want to keep the US from being able to pivot towards Asia in Trump’s second term and enjoys plenty of leverage over Russia.

Read more:
Trump, Xi and Putin: a dysfunctional love triangle with stakes of global significance

European boots on the ground?

So where does this all leave Europe? It faces the unwelcome prospect of an incoming US administration that wants to focus more on the perceived threat from China and is ambivalent about the future of the main alliance that provides for its defence. European economies are already stretched to the limit in supplying what aid they can to Kyiv and the possibility of US assistance to Ukraine drying up would only mean that they would have to shoulder more of the burden.

Meanwhile, Ukraine appears to be losing the war, and that won’t change without a rapid and considerable injection of military aid. But far from having plenty more to give, European countries have struggled to supply the military supplies they have already committed.

But a deal with Putin that handed Russia territory is the very last thing that European leaders want. The argument they (and outgoing US president Joe Biden) have been making all along is that Russia must not be rewarded for its aggression. Europe has been down that path before, remember, and it ended badly.

So now the time may be coming for European countries to consider sending troops to Ukraine, argues Viktoriia Lapa, a national security expert at Bocconi University. She notes that the French president, Emmanuel Macron, said as much in May this year. In answer to a question over whether France and its European allies should put boots on the ground in Ukraine if Russia were to break through Ukrainian lines, he said: “I’m not ruling anything out, because we are facing someone who is not ruling anything out.”

Last month, Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis recalled Macron’s statement in a message on X (formerly Twitter): “At the beginning of the year @EmmanuelMacron hinted at putting boots on the ground. At the end of the year North Korea actually did it. We are still on the back foot, reacting to escalation instead of reversing it. Macron’s ideas should now be revisited, better late than never.”

Read more:
Why Europe should consider putting boots on the ground in Ukraine

There is clearly mounting concern in Europe. Elections in former Soviet republics, Georgia and Moldova, were both marred by Russian interference. Amy Eaglestone, a political scientist based at Leiden University, believes that Moscow is clearly pulling out all the stops to realise Putin’s imperialist dreams in eastern Europe. She says they will do so by stealth if not on the battlefield, “regaining control over currently free nations that used to be Russia’s obedient satellites”.

Read more:
Russia is meddling in politics in Georgia and Moldova – trying to do by stealth what it is doing by war in Ukraine

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NACC head Paul Brereton says resigning in the face of bad publicity would ‘undermine’ the commission

The head of the National Anti-Corruption Commission. Paul Brereton, has rejected calls he resign after a finding of “officer misconduct”, declaring to do so would harm the NACC.

In a spirited defence of his digging in, Brereton argued if he was to be “deterred from discharging my duties by adverse publicity, the important independence if the commission would be undermined.

”It would be a statement that our yardstick should be popularity, not integrity.

”It would say that we should avoid making difficult decisions, lest they be unpopular.

”From there it is a short path to becoming an architect of oppression and vehicle of vengeance, rather than an instrument of integrity.”

Brereton was found by the Inspector of the NACC to have committed “officer misconduct” because he only partially, rather than adequately, excused himself during the NACC’s consideration of whether the body should investigate six people the royal commission into Robodebt referred to it.

He delegated the actual decision-making in the matter to a deputy commissioner because he had had a professional relationship with one of the people, but he took part extensively in the process of consideration.

Whether there should be an investigation into the conduct of the six is now to be reconsidered by an independent person to be appointed by the NACC.

Brereton said that after the “stinging finding” by the Inspector, some had called for his resignation, while one commentator even posted that it was ‘revolver in the library time’, which was “liked” by 1700 followers.

Brereton’s detailed defence of his actions comes ahead of a meeting this month of the parliamentary committee with oversight of the NACC.

Speaking to the National Public Sector Governance Forum, he explained why he had remained involved in the process when the Robodebt matter was being considered.

He accepted his judgement had been found to be mistaken when viewed through the legal prism of “apprehended bias” but said “the legal lens is not the only one”.

He said the referrals were received in the first week of the NACC’s operation, when it was just establishing its processes, policies and procedures, including the scope of its jurisdiction and the meaning of “corrupt conduct” under its act.

“I considered that it would have been irresponsible and negligent to abandon any involvement, to provide no guidance on these issues.”

In the circumstances he considered “an appropriate balance” could be achieved by delegating the decision to a deputy commissioner and excusing himself when it was made, while continuing to provide input on issues of general application.

“There was a balance to be struck between my responsibility as a leader for managing the affairs of the commission and issues that would have lasting implications for it on the one hand, and avoiding the perception that my prior professional relationship with one of the referred persons might influence the decision on the other.”

He accepted he had got the balance wrong.

Brereton said the NACC had amended its conflict of interest provision so a person with a declared conflict who wasn’t the ultimate decision-maker did not take part in the process. Läs mer…

NACC head Paul Brereton says resigning in the face of bad publicly would ‘undermine’ the commission

The head of the National Anti-Corruption Commission. Paul Brereton, has rejected calls he resign after a finding of “officer misconduct”, declaring to do so would harm the NACC.

In a spirited defence of his digging in, Brereton argued if he was to be “deterred from discharging my duties by adverse publicity, the important independence if the commission would be undermined.

”It would be a statement that our yardstick should be popularity, not integrity.

”It would say that we should avoid making difficult decisions, lest they be unpopular.

”From there it is a short path to becoming an architect of oppression and vehicle of vengeance, rather than an instrument of integrity.”

Brereton was found by the Inspector of the NACC to have committed “officer misconduct” because he only partially, rather than adequately, excused himself during the NACC’s consideration of whether the body should investigate six people the royal commission into Robodebt referred to it.

He delegated the actual decision-making in the matter to a deputy commissioner because he had had a professional relationship with one of the people, but he took part extensively in the process of consideration.

Whether there should be an investigation into the conduct of the six is now to be reconsidered by an independent person to be appointed by the NACC.

Brereton said that after the “stinging finding” by the Inspector, some had called for his resignation, while one commentator even posted that it was ‘revolver in the library time’, which was “liked” by 1700 followers.

Brereton’s detailed defence of his actions comes ahead of a meeting this month of the parliamentary committee with oversight of the NACC.

Speaking to the National Public Sector Governance Forum, he explained why he had remained involved in the process when the Robodebt matter was being considered.

He accepted his judgement had been found to be mistaken when viewed through the legal prism of “apprehended bias” but said “the legal lens is not the only one”.

He said the referrals were received in the first week of the NACC’s operation, when it was just establishing its processes, policies and procedures, including the scope of its jurisdiction and the meaning of “corrupt conduct” under its act.

“I considered that it would have been irresponsible and negligent to abandon any involvement, to provide no guidance on these issues.”

In the circumstances he considered “an appropriate balance” could be achieved by delegating the decision to a deputy commissioner and excusing himself when it was made, while continuing to provide input on issues of general application.

“There was a balance to be struck between my responsibility as a leader for managing the affairs of the commission and issues that would have lasting implications for it on the one hand, and avoiding the perception that my prior professional relationship with one of the referred persons might influence the decision on the other.”

He accepted he had got the balance wrong.

Brereton said the NACC had amended its conflict of interest provision so a person with a declared conflict who wasn’t the ultimate decision-maker did not take part in the process. Läs mer…

Here’s what we’ll be telling COP29 about how climate change is harming young people’s mental health

As government representatives gather at the COP29 international climate summit in Azerbaijan, the impact of climate change on young people’s mental health needs to be an urgent priority.

As psychiatrists working with children and adolescents, we’re so concerned that we’re sharing our research at the summit on the link between higher temperatures and suicidal thoughts and behaviours.

Our recent study shows young people are more likely to present at the emergency department for suicidal thoughts and behaviours in hotter weather.

Here’s what we found and why one of us (Cybele Dey) is presenting our findings at COP29.

Mental health is getting worse

Young people’s mental health is getting worse in Australia and across the world.
There is growing evidence inadequate action on climate change is contributing. But it goes beyond young people worrying about how climate change will affect their future.

Climate change is here, and its effects are already damaging young people’s mental health. Extreme weather events – such as Australia’s devastating Black Summer bushfires in 2019 and storms and floods since – disrupt children’s schooling, force displacement and cause trauma, anxiety and stress.

Our study is showing another, less talked about dimension.

Suicidal behaviour risk increases with hotter weather

Small increases in average temperatures can mean a large rise in the number of hot days each year. In 2019, for example, Australia had 33 days averaging over 39°C – more than the total number of the preceding 59 years.

While studies have shown a link between hot weather and adult suicidal thoughts and behaviour, the issue is under-researched among young people.

Given suicide is a major health issue for young people – it is the leading cause of death for Australians aged 15-24 – we wanted to investigate this link.

Young people are already being directly affected by climate change, through events such as the Black Summer bushfires.
Joachim Zens/Shutterstock

Our recent study looked at all emergency department presentations in New South Wales for suicidal thoughts and behaviour by people aged 12-24, during the warmer months (November to March) between January 2012 and December 2019.

We looked at these warmer months to focus on daily average temperature and heatwaves, rather than compare between seasons.

We found for every 1°C rise in average daily temperature, emergency department visits by young people for suicidal thoughts and behaviour increased by 1.3%. For example, presentations were 11% higher on days averaging 30°C, compared to days with an average 21.9°C. The risks also increased significantly even on days that were average temperature (not extreme heat), when compared to mild, cool days during the warmer months.

A study like this can only show an association between heat and suicidal thoughts and behaviour, rather than a direct cause. But the relationship was very strong. This means there was a steady and predictable worsening as ambient temperatures got rose.

We also analysed heatwaves, meaning three or more very hot days in a row. Interestingly, presentations increased as much on the first hot day as on later days of a heatwave. That means each single hot day is as bad as another.

Heat and inequality

Our study also found young people in regions with some of Australia’s most disadvantaged suburbs had a higher risk of presenting at emergency for suicidal thoughts and behaviours than those in more advantaged areas, even at the same temperature.

This is significant because previous research has shown socioeconomic disadvantage in itself does not increase risk for suicidal thoughts and behaviour in young people.

But disadvantage can mean people are more vulnerable to the harms of hot weather. For example, this could be through lack of cool shelter or inability to pay for air conditioning or other cooling, as well as a lack of transport and access to trees and water.

Complex interactions for mental health

Understanding mental health impacts of climate change means examining complex interactions between multiple factors, and over time. Simple, linear “cause and effect” models do not capture this.

Anxiety about climate change does also play a role in young people’s mental health. But children and teenagers who show high levels of distress may be expressing a healthy response to an unhealthy reality, rather than a mental disorder.

Inadequate action and dismissive responses by those in authority, including governments, worsens their distress.

Young people’s distress is exacerbated when governments dismiss their concerns about climate change.
Ben Wehrman/Shutterstock

What we’ll be telling COP29

At COP29, leaders must understand youth mental health is already seriously affected by insufficient action on climate change, from increasing extreme weather, heat, forced migration and disruption to school, work and health care.

High-income countries such as Australia must rapidly and equitably transition off fossil fuels, including gas, in line with scientific evidence and leadership by our Pacific neighbours, to reduce climate distress now.

Our research suggests this may help reduce youth suicide and suicidal thoughts and behaviours, and improve mental health more broadly.

How can we adapt?

If we are to adapt to climate change, we need to prepare the mental health system at national, state and local levels.

Public health messaging about heat should also consider the risks of single hot days, not just heatwaves. It should target young people and include information about mental health as well as physical health.

This information should also be part of how health professionals are trained. The current National Health and Climate Strategy includes two recommendations on mental health, focusing on community resilience and building a workforce trained in climate change and mental health. These need to go from policy into action.

Sensible public health measures – such as improving rental standards and equipping bus shelters for extreme heat – are needed now. We must plan for increases in mental health-care needs, including access to primary mental health care and evidence-based, local and culturally-appropriate treatments for children and young people.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14. In an emergency, call 000. Läs mer…

New research shows people can’t tell the difference between human and AI poetry – and even prefer the latter. What gives?

Here are some lines Sylvia Plath never wrote:

The air is thick with tension,My mind is a tangled mess,The weight of my emotionsIs heavy on my chest.

This apparently Plath-like verse was produced by GPT3.5 in response to the prompt “write a short poem in the style of Sylvia Plath”.

The stanza hits the key points readers may expect of Plath’s poetry, and perhaps a poem more generally. It suggests a sense of despair as the writer struggles with internal demons. “Mess” and “chest” are a near-rhyme, which reassures us that we are in the realm of poetry.

According to a new paper in Nature Scientific Reports, non-expert readers of poetry cannot distinguish poetry written by AI from that written by canonical poets. Moreover, general readers tend to prefer poetry written by AI – at least until they are told it is written by a machine.

In the study, AI was used to generate poetry “in the style of” ten poets: Geoffrey Chaucer, William Shakespeare, Samuel Butler, Lord Byron, Walt Whitman, Emily Dickinson, T.S. Eliot, Allen Ginsberg, Sylvia Plath and Dorothea Lasky.

Participants were presented with ten poems in random order, five from a real poet and five AI imitations. They were then asked whether they thought each poem was AI or human, rating their confidence on a scale of 1-100.

A second group of participants were exposed to three different scenarios. Some were told that all the poems they were given were human. Some were told they were reading only AI poems. Some were not told anything.

They were then presented with five human and five AI poems and asked to rank them on a seven point scale, from extremely bad to extremely good. The participants who were told nothing were also asked to guess whether each poem was human or AI.

The researchers found that AI poems scored higher than their human-written counterparts in attributes such as “creativity”, “atmosphere” and “emotional quality”.

The AI “Plath” poem quoted above is one of those included in the study, set against several she actually wrote.

A sign of quality?

As a lecturer in English, these outcomes do not surprise me. Poetry is the literary form that my students find most unfamiliar and difficult. I am sure this holds true of wider society as well.

While most of us have been taught poetry at some point, likely in high school, our reading does not tend to go much beyond that. This is despite the ubiquity of poetry. We see it every day: circulated on Instagram, plastered on coffee cups and printed in greeting cards.

The researchers suggest that “by many metrics, specialized AI models are able to produce high-quality poetry”. But they don’t interrogate what we actually mean by “high-quality”.

In my view, the results of the study are less testaments to the “quality” of machine poetry than to the wider difficulty of giving life to poetry. It takes reading and rereading to experience what literary critic Derek Attridge has called the “event” of literature, where “new possibilities of meaning and feeling” open within us. In the most significant kinds of literary experiences, “we feel pulled along by the work as we push ourselves through it”.

Attridge quotes philosopher Walter Benjamin to make this point: literature “is not statement or the imparting of information”.

Philosopher Walter Benjamin argued that literature is not simply the imparting of information.
Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Yet pushing ourselves through remains as difficult as ever – perhaps more so in a world where we expect instant answers. Participants favoured poems that were easier to interpret and understand.

When readers say they prefer AI poetry, then, they would seem to be registering their frustration when faced with writing that does not yield to their attention. If we do not know how to begin with poems, we end up relying on conventional “poetic” signs to make determinations about quality and preference.

This is of course the realm of GPT, which writes formally adequate sonnets in seconds. The large language models used in AI are success-orientated machines that aim to satisfy general taste, and they are effective at doing so. The machines give us the poems we think we want: ones that tell us things.

How poems think

The work of teaching is to help students to attune themselves to how poems think, poem by poem and poet by poet, so they can gain access to poetry’s specific intelligence. In my introductory course, I take about an hour to work through Sylvia Plath’s Morning Song. I have spent ten minutes or more on the opening line: “Love set you going like a fat gold watch.”

How might a “watch” be connected to “set you going”? How can love set something going? What does a “fat gold watch” mean to you – and how is it different from a slim silver one? Why “set you going” rather than “led to your birth”? And what does all this mean in a poem about having a baby, and all the ambivalent feelings this may produce in a mother?

In one of the real Plath poems that was included in the survey, Winter Landscape, With Rooks, we observe how her mental atmosphere unfurls around the waterways of the Cambridgeshire Fens in February:

Water in the millrace, through a sluice of stone,plunges headlong into that black pondwhere, absurd and out-of-season, a single swanfloats chaste as snow, taunting the clouded mindwhich hungers to haul the white reflection down.

How different is this to GPT’s Plath poem? The achievement of the opening of Winter Landscape, With Rooks is how it intricately explores the connection between mental events and place. Given the wider interest of the poem in emotional states, its details seem to convey the tumble of life’s events through our minds.

Our minds are turned by life just as the mill is turned by water; these experiences and mental processes accumulate in a scarcely understood “black pond”.

Intriguingly, the poet finds that this metaphor, well constructed though it may be, does not quite work. This is not because of a failure of language, but because of the landscape she is trying to turn into art, which is refusing to submit to her emotional atmosphere. Despite everything she feels, a swan floats on serenely – even if she “hungers” to haul its “white reflection down”.

I mention these lines because they turn around the Plath-like poem of GPT3.5. They remind us of the unexpected outcomes of giving life to poems. Plath acknowledges not just the weight of her despair, but the absurd figure she may be within a landscape she wants to reflect her sadness.

She compares herself to the bird that gives the poem its title:

feathered dark in thought, I stalk like a rook,brooding as the winter night comes on.

These lines are unlikely to register highly in the study’s terms of literary response – “beautiful”, “inspiring”, “lyrical”, “meaningful”, and so on. But there is a kind of insight to them. Plath is the source of her torment, “feathered” as she is with her “dark thoughts”. She is “brooding”, trying to make the world into her imaginative vision.

Sylvia Plath.
RBainbridge2000, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

The authors of the study are both right and wrong when they write that AI can “produce high-quality poetry”. The preference the study reveals for AI poetry over that written by humans does not suggest that machine poems are of a higher quality. The AI models can produce poems that rate well on certain “metrics”. But the event of reading poetry is ultimately not one in which we arrive at standardised criteria or outcomes.

Instead, as we engage in imaginative tussles with poems, both we and the poem are newly born. So the outcome of the research is that we have a highly specified and well thought-out examination of how people who know little about poetry respond to poems. But it fails to explore how poetry can be enlivened by meaningful shared encounters.

Spending time with poems of any kind, attending to their intelligence and the acts of sympathy and speculation required to confront their challenges, is as difficult as ever. As the Plath of GPT3.5 puts it:

My mind is a tangled mess,[…]I try to grasp at something solid. Läs mer…