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An oracle erred badly. The most impressive results were turned in by a little-known company in Brazil. A nagging problem reemerged, and some media critics turned profane in their assessments.

So it went for pollsters in the 2024 presidential election. Their collective performance, while not stellar, was improved from that of four years earlier. Overall, polls signaled a close outcome in the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

That is what the election produced: a modest win for Trump.

With votes still being counted in California and a few other states more than a week after Election Day, Trump had received 50.1% of the popular vote to Harris’ 48.1%, a difference of 2 points. That margin was closer than Joe Biden’s win by 4.5 points over Trump in 2020. It was closer than Hillary Clinton’s popular vote victory in 2016, closer than Barack Obama’s wins in 2008 and 2012.

There were, moreover, no errors among national pollsters quite as dramatic as CNN’s estimate in 2020 that Biden led Trump by 12 points.

This time, CNN’s final national poll said the race was deadlocked – an outcome anticipated by six other pollsters, according to data compiled by RealClearPolitics.

The most striking discrepancy this year was the Marist College poll, conducted for NPR and PBS. It estimated Harris held a 4-point lead nationally at campaign’s end.

‘Oracle’ of Iowa’s big miss

In any event, a sense lingered among critics that the Trump-Harris election had resulted in yet another polling embarrassment, another entry in the catalog of survey failures in presidential elections, which is the topic of my latest book, “Lost in a Gallup.”

Comedian Jon Stewart gave harsh voice to such sentiments, saying of pollsters on his late-night program on election night, “I don’t ever want to fucking hear from you again. Ever. … You don’t know shit about shit, and I don’t care for you.”

Comedian Jon Stewart doesn’t like pollsters and had some blistering comments about them on election night.
Screenshot, YouTube

Megyn Kelly, a former Fox News host, also denounced pollsters, declaring on her podcast the day after the election: “Polling is a lie. They don’t know anything.”

Two factors seemed to encourage such derision – a widely discussed survey of Iowa voters released the weekend before the election and Trump’s sweep of the seven states where the outcome turned.

The Iowa poll injected shock and surprise into the campaign’s endgame, reporting that Harris had taken a 3-point lead in the state over Trump. The result was likened to a “bombshell” and its implications seemed clear: If Harris had opened a lead in a state with Iowa’s partisan profile, her prospects of winning elsewhere seemed strong, especially in the Great Lakes swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

The survey was conducted for the Des Moines Register by J. Ann Selzer, a veteran Iowa-based pollster with an outstanding reputation in opinion research. In a commentary in The New York Times in mid-September, Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson declared Selzer “the oracle of Iowa.” Rachel Maddow of MSNBC praised Selzer’s polls before the election for their “uncanny predictive accuracy.” Ratings released in June by data guru Nate Silver gave Selzer’s polls an A-plus grade.

But this time, Selzer’s poll missed dramatically.

Trump carried Iowa by 13 points, meaning the poll was off by 16 points – a stunning divergence for an accomplished pollster.

“Even the mighty have been humbled” by Trump’s victory, the Times of London said of Selzer’s polling failure.

Selzer said afterward she will “be reviewing data from multiple sources with hopes of learning why that (discrepancy) happened.”

It is possible, other pollsters suggested, that Selzer’s reliance on telephone-based surveying contributed to the polling failure. “Phone polling alone … isn’t going to reach low-propensity voters or politically disengaged nonwhite men,” Tom Lubbock and James Johnson wrote in a commentary for The Wall Street Journal.

These days, few pollsters rely exclusively on the phone to conduct election surveys; many of them have opted for hybrid approaches that combine, for example, phone, text and online sampling techniques.

Surprise sweep of swing states

Trump’s sweep of the seven vigorously contested swing states surely contributed to perceptions that polls had misfired again.

According to RealClearPolitics, Harris held slender, end-of-campaign polling leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump was narrowly ahead in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada.

Trump won them all, an outcome no pollster anticipated – except for AtlasIntel of Sao Paulo, Brazil, a firm “about which little is known,” as The New Republic noted.

AtlasIntel estimated Trump was ahead in all seven swing states by margins that hewed closely to the voting outcomes. In none of the swing states did AtlasIntel’s polling deviate from the final vote tally by more than 1.3 points, an impressive performance.

AtlasIntel did not respond to email requests I sent requesting information about its background and polling technique. The company describes itself as “a leading innovator in online polling” and says it uses “a proprietary methodology,” without revealing much about it.

Its founder and chief executive is Andrei Roman, who earned a doctorate in government at Harvard University. Roman took to X, formerly Twitter, in the election’s aftermath to post a chart that touted AtlasIntel as “the most accurate pollster of the US Presidential Election.”

It was a burst of pollster braggadocio reminiscent of a kind that has emerged periodically since the 1940s. That was when polling pioneer George Gallup placed two-page advertising spreads in the journalism trade publication “Editor & Publisher” to assert the accuracy of his polls in presidential elections.

Underestimating Trump’s support again

A significant question facing pollsters this year – their great known unknown – was whether modifications made to sampling techniques would allow them to avoid underestimating Trump’s support, as they had in 2016 and 2020.

Misjudging Trump’s backing is a nagging problem for pollsters. The results of the 2024 election indicate that the shortcoming persists. By margins ranging from 0.9 points to 2.7 points, polls overall understated Trump’s support in the seven swing states, for example.

Some polls misjudged Trump’s backing by even greater margins. CNN, for example, underestimated Trump’s vote by 4.3 points in North Carolina, by more than 6 points in Michigan and Wisconsin as well as Arizona.

Results that misfire in the same direction suggest that adjustments to sampling methodologies were inadequate or ineffective for pollsters in seeking to reach Trump backers of all stripes. Läs mer…

When the Supreme Court struck down race-based admissions at American colleges and universities just over a year ago, many predicted U.S. campuses would become much less diverse. But in part due to students who decide not to disclose their race or ethnicity, coupled with universities’ selective use of statistics, it is not clear how much the decision has affected diversity on campus.

As higher education institutions begin reporting the racial makeup of the class of 2028 – the first to be affected by the 2023 decision – the data is hard to interpret, confusing and inconclusive.

As a sociologist who has studied how institutions of higher education collect and report data on race and ethnicity, I have identified some factors that contribute to this lack of clarity.

Students don’t identify with choices given

Some students may not select a racial or ethnic category because they don’t believe any of the categories really fit. For example, before multiracial students could select “one or more,” an option that became widely available in 2010, they were more likely to decline to identify their race or ethnicity. Some even boycotted checkboxes entirely.

Other students don’t view their race as important: 67% of the students who choose “race and ethnicity unknown” are white. Of these students, 33% say race and ethnicity are not a relevant part of their identity, a researcher found in 2008.

The number of students who don’t respond to questions about race or ethnicity – and are listed in the “race unknown” category – is increasing. At Harvard University, for example, the percentage of “race-unknown” undergrad students doubled from 2023 to 2024.

As the number of “race unknown” students grows, it not only becomes harder to determine a student body’s ethnic and racial diversity but also the impact of the ban on race-conscious admissions.

Some students may not view race as an important part of their identity.
John Giustina/The Image Bank via Getty Images

Fearing discrimination, students don’t disclose race

Some students believe their race or ethnicity will harm their chances of admission.

This is particularly true at many selective institutions, which have higher nonresponse rates than less selective institutions, about 4% compared with 1% to 2%.

My research shows that students are even more likely to pass on identifying race or ethnicity at selective law schools, where race and ethnicity could be used among a variety of criteria for admissions before the Supreme Court ruled against that practice. An average of 8% of students at those schools chose not to identify, compared with 4% at less selective law schools.

‘We’re very diverse’: University decisions distort statistics

What a university chooses to report will also affect the student body demographic data the public sees. Harvard, for example, does not report its proportion of white students.

Some institutions use statistics strategically to appear more diverse than they are. These strategies include counting multiracial students multiple times – once for each race selected – or including international students as a separate category in demographic pie charts. The greater the number of different-colored slices on the chart, the more demographically “diverse” an institution appears to be.

Impact of Supreme Court ruling: Clearer picture coming soon

While universities may not all report their student demographics the same way in their own materials, they all have to report it the same way to the federal government – namely, to its Integrated Post Secondary Education Data System, better known as IPEDS. The next IPEDS report on characteristics for the 2024 enrollment class is expected to be released in spring 2025. Once that data is available, a better picture of how the Supreme Court’s decision has affected diversity in college enrollment should emerge.

That clearer picture might not last long. In 2027, the federal government will require colleges and universities to make changes to how they report student race and ethnicity. Among the changes is the addition of a Middle Eastern and North African category. Under the current standard, Middle Eastern and North African students are counted as white. As a result, white enrollment at some colleges and universities will appear to decline after 2027.

The new standards will also change the way universities treat Hispanic or Latino ethnicity on enrollment forms. Today, if students self-identify as Hispanic and white, they will be categorized as Hispanic. If students select Hispanic and white in 2027, they will be categorized as multiracial. The revised categories will muddy the impact of the Supreme Court’s decision. A drop in the number of Hispanic students reported could be due to the court’s ruling. Or it may result from the new way students will be counted.

Until universities and colleges adjust to the new guidelines about collecting and reporting race – and as long as students decline to provide their racial identities – the full effect of banning consideration of race in college admissions will remain a cloudy picture at best. Läs mer…

Knee injuries are common in athletes, accounting for 41% of all athletic injuries. But knee injuries aren’t limited to competitive athletes. In our everyday lives, an accident or a quick movement in the wrong direction can injure the knee and require medical treatment. A quarter of the adult population worldwide experiences knee pain each year

As a physical therapist and board-certified orthopedic specialist, I help patients of all ages with knee injuries and degenerative conditions.

Your knees have a huge impact on your mobility and overall quality of life, so it’s important to prevent knee problems whenever possible and address pain in these joints with appropriate treatments.

Healthy knees

The knee joint bones consist of the femur, tibia and patella. As in all healthy joints, smooth cartilage covers the surfaces of the bones, forming the joints and allowing for controlled movement.

A healthy knee.
Inna Kharlamova/iStock/Getty Images Plus via Getty Images

Muscles, ligaments and tendons further support the knee joint. The anterior cruciate ligament, commonly known as the ACL, and posterior cruciate ligament, or PCL, provide internal stability to the knee. In addition, two tough pieces of fibrocartilage, called menisci, lie inside the joint, providing further stability and shock absorption.

All these structures work together to enable the knee to move smoothly and painlessly throughout everyday movement, whether bending to pick up the family cat or going for a run.

Causes of knee pain

Two major causes of knee pain are acute injury and osteoarthritis.

Ligaments such as the ACL and PCL can be stressed and torn when a shear force occurs between the femur and tibia. ACL injuries often occur when athletes land awkwardly on the knee or quickly pivot on a planted foot. Depending on the severity of the injury, these patients may undergo physical therapy, or they may require surgery for repair or replacement.

PCL injuries are less common. They occur when the tibia experiences a posterior or backward force. This type of injury is common in car accidents when the knee hits the dashboard, or when patients fall forward when walking up stairs.

The menisci can also experience degeneration and tearing from shear and rotary forces, especially during weight-bearing activities. These types of injuries often require rehabilitation through physical therapy or surgery.

Knee pain can also result from injury or overuse of the muscles and tendons surrounding the knee, including the quadriceps, hamstrings and patella tendon.

Both injuries to and overuse of the knee can lead to degenerative changes in the joint surfaces, known as osteoarthritis. Osteoarthritis is a progressive disease that can lead to pain, swelling and stiffness. This disease affects the knees of over 300 million people worldwide, most often those 50 years of age and up. American adults have a 40% chance of developing osteoarthritis that affects their daily lives, with the knee being the most commonly affected joint.

Age is also a factor in knee pain. The structure and function of your joints change as you age. Cartilage starts to break down, your body produces less synovial fluid to lubricate your joints, and muscle strength and flexibility decrease. This can lead to painful, restricted movement in the joint.

Risk factors

There are some risk factors for knee osteoarthritis that you cannot control, such as genetics, age, sex and your history of prior injuries.

Fortunately, there are several risk factors you can control that can predispose you to knee pain and osteoarthritis specifically. The first is excessive weight. Based on studies between 2017 and 2020, nearly 42% of all adult Americans are obese. This obesity is a significant risk factor for diabetes and osteoarthritis and can also play a role in other knee injuries.

A lack of physical activity is another risk, with 1 in 5 U.S. adults reporting that they’re inactive outside of work duties. This can result in less muscular support for the knee and more pressure on the joint itself.

An inflammatory diet also adds to the risk of knee pain from osteoarthritis. Research shows that the average American diet, often high in sugar and fat and low in fiber, can lead to changes to the gut microbiome that contribute to osteoarthritis pain and inflammation.

Preventing knee pain

Increasing physical activity is one of the key elements to preventing knee pain. Often physical therapy intervention for patients with knee osteoarthritis focuses on strengthening the knee to decrease pain and support the joint during movement.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services recommends that adults spend at least 150 to 300 minutes per week on moderate-intensity, or 75 to 150 minutes per week on vigorous-intensity aerobic physical activity. These guidelines do not change for adults who already have osteoarthritis, although their exercise may require less weight-bearing activities, such as swimming, biking or walking.

The agency also recommends that all adults do some form of resistance training at least two or more days a week. Adults with knee osteoarthritis particularly benefit from quadriceps-strengthening exercises, such as straight leg raises.

Treatments for knee pain

Conservative treatment of knee pain includes anti-inflammatory and pain medications and physical therapy.

Medical treatment for knee osteoarthritis may include cortisone injections to decrease inflammation or hyaluronic acid injections, which help lubricate the joint. The relief from these interventions is often temporary, as they do not stop the progression of the disease. But they can delay the need for surgery by one to three years on average, depending on the number of injections.

Physical therapy is generally a longer-lasting treatment option for knee pain. Physical therapy treatment leads to more sustained pain reduction and functional improvements when compared with cortisone injections treatment and some meniscal repairs.

Patients with osteoarthritis often benefit from total knee replacement, a surgery with a high success rate and lasting results.

Surgical interventions for knee pain include the repair, replacement or removal of the ACL, PCL, menisci or cartilage. When more conservative approaches fail, patients with osteoarthritis may benefit from a partial or total knee replacement to allow more pain-free movement. In these procedures, one or both sides of the knee joint are replaced by either plastic or metal components. Afterward, patients attend physical therapy to aid in the return of range of motion.

Although there are risks with any surgery, most patients who undergo knee replacement benefit from decreased pain and increased function, with 90% of all replacements lasting more than 15 years. But not all patients are candidates for such surgeries, as a successful outcome depends on the patient’s overall health and well-being.

New treatments on the horizon

New developments for knee osteoarthritis are focused on less invasive therapies. Recently, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved a new implant that acts as a shock absorber. This requires a much simpler procedure than a total knee replacement.

Other promising interventions include knee embolization, a procedure in which tiny particles are injected into the arteries near the knee to decrease blood flow to the area and reduce inflammation near the joint. Researchers are also looking into injectable solutions derived from human bodies, such as plasma-rich protein and fat cells, to decrease inflammation and pain from osteoarthritis. Human stem cells and their growth factors also show potential in treating knee osteoarthritis by potentially improving muscle atrophy and repairing cartilage.

Further research is needed on these novel interventions. However, any intervention that holds promise to stop or delay osteoarthritis is certainly encouraging for the millions of people afflicted with this disease. Läs mer…

Flooding from hurricanes Helene and Milton inflicted billions of dollars in damage across the Southeast in September and October 2024, pushing buildings off their foundations and undercutting roads and bridges. It also caused dozens of electric vehicles and other battery-powered objects, such as scooters and golf carts, to catch fire.

According to one tally, 11 electric cars and 48 lithium-ion batteries caught fire after exposure to salty floodwater from Helene. In some cases, these fires spread to homes.

When a lithium-ion battery pack bursts into flames, it releases toxic fumes, burns violently and is extremely hard to put out. Frequently, firefighters’ only option is to let it burn out by itself.

Particularly when these batteries are soaked in saltwater, they can become “ticking time bombs,” in the words of Florida State Fire Marshall Jimmy Patronis. That’s because the fire doesn’t always occur immediately when the battery is flooded. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, about 36 EVs flooded by Hurricane Ian in Florida in 2022 caught fire, including several that were being towed after the storm on flatbed trailers.

Many consumers are unaware of this risk, and lithium-ion batteries are widely used in EVs and hybrid cars, e-bikes and scooters, electric lawnmowers and cordless power tools.

I’m a mechanical engineer and am working to help solve battery safety issues for our increasingly electrified society. Here’s what all owners should know about water and the risk of battery fires:

Emergency responders handle EVs that were immersed in saltwater during Hurricane Ian in Florida in 2022, including some that ignited.

The threat of saltwater

The trigger for lithium-ion battery fires is a process called thermal runaway – a cascading sequence of heat-releasing reactions inside the battery cell.

Under normal operating conditions, the probability of a lithium-ion cell going into thermal runaway is less than 1 in 10 million. But it increases sharply if the cell is subjected to electrical, thermal or mechanical stress, such as short-circuiting, overheating or puncture.

Saltwater is a particular problem for batteries because salt dissolved in water is conductive, which means that electric current readily flows through it. Pure water is not very conductive, but the electrical conductivity of seawater can be more than a thousand times higher than that of fresh water.

All EV battery pack enclosures use gaskets to seal off their internal space from the elements outside. Typically, they have waterproof ratings of IP66 or IP67. While these ratings are high, they do not guarantee that a battery will be watertight when it is immersed for a long period of time – say, over 30 minutes.

Battery packs also have various ports to equalize pressure inside the battery and move electrical power in and out. These can be potential pathways for water to leak into the pack enclosure. Inadequate seal ratings and manufacturing defects can also enable water to find its way into the battery pack if it is immersed.

How water leads to fire

All batteries have two terminals: One is marked positive (+), and the other is marked negative (-). When the terminals are connected to a device that uses electricity to do work, such as a light bulb, chemical reactions occur inside the battery that cause electrons to flow from the negative to the positive terminal. This creates an electric current and releases the energy stored in the battery.

Electrons flow between a battery’s terminals because the chemical reactions inside the battery create different electrical potentials between the two terminals. This difference is also known as voltage. When saltwater comes into contact with metal battery terminals with different electrical potentials, the battery can short-circuit, inducing rapid corrosion and electric arcing, and generating excessive current and heat. The more conductive the liquid is that penetrates the battery pack, the higher the shorting current and rate of corrosion.

Rapid corrosion reactions within the battery pack produce hydrogen and oxygen, corroding away materials from metallic terminals on the positive side of the battery and depositing them onto the negative side. Even after the water drains away, these deposited materials can form solid shorting bridges that remain inside the battery pack, causing a delayed thermal runaway. A fire can start days after the battery is flooded.

Most electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid cars use arrays of lithium-ion batteries like these.
DOE

Even a battery pack that is fully discharged isn’t necessarily safe during flooding. A lithium-ion cell, even at 0% state of charge, still has about a three-volt potential difference between its positive and negative terminals, so some current can flow between them. For a battery string with many cells in a series – a typical configuration in electric cars – residual voltage can still be high enough to drive these reactions.

Many scientists, including me and my colleagues, are working to understand the exact sequence of events that can occur in a battery pack after it is exposed to saltwater and lead to thermal runaway. We also are looking for ways to help reduce fire risks from flooded battery packs.

These could include finding better ways to seal the battery packs; using alternative, more corrosion-resistant materials for the battery terminals; and applying waterproof coatings to exposed terminals inside the battery pack.

What EV owners should know

Electric cars are still very safe to drive and own in most circumstances. However, during extreme situations like hurricanes and flooding, it is very important to keep EV battery packs from becoming submerged in water, particularly saltwater. The same is true for other products that contain lithium-ion batteries.

For EVs, this means evacuating cars out of the affected zone or parking them on high ground before flooding occurs. Smaller objects, like e-bikes and power tools, can be moved to upper floors of buildings or stored on high shelves.

If you own an EV that has been submerged in water for hours to days, particularly in saltwater, public safety experts recommend treating it as a fire hazard and placing it on open ground away from other valuable property. Do not attempt to charge or operate it. Contact the manufacturer for an inspection to assess battery damage.

Often, a flooded electric vehicle will need to be towed away for further inspection. However, since thermal runaway can occur well after submersion, the car should not be moved until it has been professionally assessed. Läs mer…

Millions of people in the U.S. and around the world suffer from urinary tract infections every year. Some groups are especially prone to chronic UTIs, including women, older adults and some veterans.

These infections are typically treated with antibiotics, but overusing these drugs can make the microbes they target become resistant and reduce the medicines’ effectiveness.

To solve this problem of chronic UTIs and antibiotic resistance, we combined our expertise in microbiology and engineering to create a living material that houses a specific strain of beneficial E. coli. Our research shows that the “good” bacteria released from this biomaterial can compete with “bad” bacteria for nutrients and win, dramatically reducing the number of disease-causing microbes.

With further development, we believe this technique could help manage recurring UTIs that do not respond to antibiotics.

Bringing bacteria to the bladder

For the microbes living in people, nutrients are limited their presence varies between different parts of the body. Bacteria have to compete with other microbes and the host to acquire essential nutrients. By taking up available nutrients, beneficial bacteria can stop or slow the growth of harmful bacteria. When harmful bacteria are starved of important nutrients, they aren’t able to reach high enough numbers to cause disease.

Delivering beneficial bacteria to the bladder to prevent UTIs in challenging, though. For one, these helpful bacteria can naturally colonize only in people who are unable to fully empty their bladder, a condition called urinary retention. Even among these patients, how long these bacteria can colonize their bladders varies widely.

Current methods to deliver bacteria to the bladder are invasive and require repeated catheter insertion. Even when bacteria are successfully released into the bladder, urine will flush out these microbes because they cannot stick to the bladder wall.

This microscopy image shows the bladder of a mouse (blue) covered with E. coli (pink) and the white blood cells (yellow) attacking them.
Valerie O’Brien, Matthew Joens, Scott J. Hultgren, James A.J. Fitzpatrick, Washington University, St. Louis/NIH via Flickr, CC BY-NC

Biomaterials to treat UTIs

Since beneficial bacteria cannot attach to and survive in the bladder for long, we developed a biomaterial that could slowly release bacteria in the bladder over time.

Our biomaterial is composed of living E. coli embedded in a matrix structure made of gel. It resembles a piece of jelly about 500 times smaller than a drop of water and can release bacteria for up to two weeks in the bladder. By delivering the bacteria via biomaterial, we overcome the need for the bacteria to attach to the bladder to persist in the organ.

We tested our biomaterial by placing it in human urine in petri dishes and exposing it to bacterial pathogens that cause UTIs. Our results showed that when mixed in a 50:50 ratio, the E. coli outcompeted the UTI-causing bacteria by increasing to around 85% of the total population. When we added more E. coli than UTI-causing bacteria, which is what we envision for future development and testing, the proportion of E. coli increased to over 99% of the population, essentially wiping out the UTI-causing bacteria. Moreoever, the biomaterial continued releasing E. coli for up to two weeks in human urine.

Our findings suggest that E.coli could stick around and survive in the bladder for extended periods of time and successfully decrease the growth of many types of bacteria that cause UTIs.

UTIs can be painful.
Images we create and what actually happens are always beautiful when we have imagination/iStock via Getty Images Plus

Improving biomaterials

Our findings show that E. coli can not only control harmful bacteria it’s closely related to but also a broad range of disease-causing bacteria in humans and animals. This means scientists might not need to identify different types of beneficial bacteria to control each pathogen – and there are many – that can cause a UTI.

Our team is currently evaluating how effectively our biomaterial can cure UTIs in mice. We are also working to identify the specific nutrients that beneficial and harmful bacteria compete over and what factors may help beneficial bacteria win. We could add these nutrients to our biomaterial to be released or withheld.

This research is still at an early stage, and clinical uses are not in development yet, so if it does reach patients it will be well in the future. We hope that our technology could be refined and applied to control other bacterial infections and some cancers caused by bacteria. Läs mer…

With the Taurid meteor shower now hitting the night skies worldwide, look for what could be a celestial treat – you might see shooting stars, and maybe even fireballs, the biggest and brightest meteors.

As the full moon begins to wane after Nov. 15, the sky will be darker, due to diminishing moonlight, so finding the meteors will get easier. That said, the best visibility for the meteors through the rest of the month will come just before moonrise each night.

Beyond the light show, there is something else that scientists as well as onlookers have long wondered about: the possibility that bigger chunks are in the Taurid meteor streams, chunks the size of boulders, buildings or even mountains.

And if that’s true, could one of those monster-sized Taurid objects collide with Earth? Could they wipe out a city, or worse? Is it possible that’s already happened, sometime in our planet’s past?

This animation simulates the motion of the hypothetical Taurid meteor swarm through space.

As a physicist who researches the risk that comets and asteroids pose to the Earth, I’m aware that this is a subject where pseudoscience often competes with actual science. So let’s try to find the line between fact and fiction.

Pig Pen, glowing tails and shooting stars

Comet Encke is the so-called parent comet of the Taurid meteors. It’s relatively small, just over 3 miles (almost 5 kilometers) in diameter, and crosses inside Earth’s orbit and back out every 3.3 years.

As Encke moves, it sheds dust wherever it goes, like the Peanuts character Pig Pen. A meteor shower occurs when that dust and debris light up while entering Earth’s atmosphere at high speeds. Ultimately, they vanish into an incandescent puff of vapor with a glowing tail, creating the illusion of a “shooting star.”

But dust isn’t all that breaks off the comet. So do bigger chunks, the size of pebbles and stones. When they collide with the air, they create the much brighter fireballs, which sometimes explode.

An image of comet Encke, taken by NASA’s MESSENGER spacecraft in November 2013.
NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/Carnegie Institution of Washington/Southwest Research Institute

Doomsday showers

The “coherent catastrophism” hypothesis suggests that comet Encke was created when an even larger comet broke up into pieces; Encke survived as the largest piece. The hypothesis also suggests that other mountain-sized chunks broke off and coalesced into a large swarm of fragments too. If such a swarm exists, there is a possibility that those large chunks could one day hit Earth as it passes through the swarm.

But just because something might be physically possible doesn’t mean that it exists. Mainstream astronomers have rejected this theory’s most catastrophic predictions. Among other reasons, scientists have never observed high concentrations of these mountain-sized objects.

Despite the lack of evidence, researchers on the fringes of science have embraced the idea. They claim the Earth experienced a global catastrophic swarm 12,900 years ago; the impact, they say, caused continent-wide firestorms, floods and abrupt climate change that led to the mass extinction of large mammals, such as woolly mammoths, and the disappearance of early Americans known as the Clovis people.

The evidence for a catastrophic cause of these events, most of which did not happen, is lacking. Nevertheless, the idea has gained a large following and formed the basis for British author Graham Hancock’s popular TV series, “Ancient Apocalypse.”

This photo shows the flattened trees resulting from the Tunguska event.
Universal History Archives/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

The Tunguska event

But even outlandish ideas can have elements of truth, and there are hints that some objects – more than just dust and debris, but less than doomsday size – indeed exist in the Taurid meteor stream, and that the Earth has already encountered them.

One clue comes from an event on June 30, 1908, when an enormous explosion in the sky blew down millions of trees in Siberia. This was the Tunguska event – an airburst from an object that may have been up to 160 feet (about 50 meters) in diameter.

The collision unleashed several megatons of energy, which is roughly the equivalent of a large thermonuclear bomb. What happens is this: The incoming object penetrates deep into Earth’s atmosphere, and the dense air slows it down and heats it up until it vaporizes and explodes.

Could this object have been a Taurid? After all, the Taurids cross Earth’s orbit twice a year – not just in autumn, but also in June.

In a 2015 photo, a glowing Taurid fireball descends over Lake Simcoe in Ontario, Canada.
Orchidpost/iStock via Getty Images Plus

Here’s the evidence: First, the descriptions of the trajectory of the Tunguska airburst, as reported by eyewitness observers, is consistent with that of an object coming from the Taurid stream.

What’s more, the pattern of blast damage on the ground beneath an airburst depends on the trajectory of the exploding object. Supercomputer simulations show that the shape of the surface blast that would be caused by an exploding Taurid object matches the pattern of fallen trees at Tunguska.

Finally, during the Taurid meteor shower in 1975, people observed large fireballs – and seismometers, previously placed on the Moon by Apollo astronauts, detected seismic events on the lunar surface. Scientists interpreted those events as impacts, presumably made by the Taurid meteors.

In 2032 and 2036, the Taurid swarm – assuming it exists – is predicted to be closer to the Earth than any time since 1975. That might mean the Moon, and perhaps the Earth, could be pelted again in those years.

There is time to figure this out. Scientists can expand their astronomical surveys to look for Tunguska-sized objects at the locations where they are predicted to be the next time they are in our vicinity.

Most scientists remain skeptical that such a swarm exists, but it’s the job of planetary defenders to investigate possible threats, even if the risk is small. After all, a Tunguska-sized object could conceivably demolish a major city and kill millions; an accurate count of objects on a potential collision course is essential.

Put doomsday scenarios and ancient apocalypses aside. The real question, and still an open one, is whether a Taurid swarm could deliver more Tunguska-sized objects than would otherwise be expected. This would mean we have underestimated the risk from future airbursts. Läs mer…

Get the popcorn out! Two big blockbusters hit cinemas this week: the warm and cuddly Paddington III and the big and muscly Gladiator II. Much like the Barbenheimer face-off of summer 2023, behold now the winter of Gladdington 2024.

It’s hard to think of anything more cinematically British than Paddington and the Brown family, inhabiting with gusto the misty-eyed notion of Blighty as some Union-Jack buntinged, posh twit/jolly Cockernee merry-go-round of warm hearts, stiff upper lips and Victoria sponge.

But as the name of the third instalment reveals, the film takes its leave of Britain’s shores and moves the action to Peru, where our little ursine friend is searching for his beloved Aunt Lucy who has mysteriously disappeared. Our reviewer Jane Barnwell found Paddington in Peru to be a heartwarming tale of kindness, community and family, with messages of tolerance towards difference and diversity. As long as it ends with a lovely song and dance routine, I’ll be happy.

Read more:
Paddington in Peru is another heart-warming and humorous tale of kindness, community and family

Paul Mescal and Pedro Pascal fight it out in Gladiator II.
FlixPix / Alamy

Whether audiences are likely to give the same generous thumbs up to Ridley Scott’s sequel to his 2000 blockbuster Gladiator – this time around starring everyone’s fantasy boyfriend, Paul Mescal – depends. If you’re in it for the big, spectacular set pieces you will relish Gladiator II.

Bloody-faced killer baboons, warriors on rhinos and a shark-infested Colosseum it is then. But if you’re looking for a sequel that advances the original film with a fresh storyline and compelling characters, you may have to look to Paddington III or even Bridget Jones IV (just kidding).

Film academic Dan O’Brien believes the pressures of Hollywood big bucks have neutered the ambitions of Scott’s new film in favour of playing it safe with crowd-pleasing tropes, characters and scenes that rehash elements of the original. Russell Crowe, who memorably embodied the blood-and-sand role of Maximus seems to cast a shadow over Mescal, inhibiting the young Irish actor from fully owning his character Lucius. In spite of this, our reviewer maintains you will still want to see Gladiator II for the sheer entertainment and spectacle; you just might not remember it for very long afterwards.

Read more:
Gladiator II: a wavering thumbs up for a rehashed sequel that can’t escape the ghost of Russell Crowe

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Come into the light

After a wait of nine years, fans of Tudor history will be thrilled to see that the final instalment of Hilary Mantel’s Wolf Hall trilogy has been brought to life by the BBC in The Mirror and the Light. Returning the ever-wonderful Mark Rylance to our TV screens as Thomas Cromwell, this beautifully realised production filmed in candlelight showcases exquisite costumes, sets and performances.

Mark Rylance at Henry VIII’s powerful adviser.
BBC

With England in uproar following Henry VIII’s breaking with the Catholic church, the year 1536 sees the “butcher’s dog” facing new pressures from his capricious king. Cromwell is tasked with bringing the resolutely Catholic Princess Mary to heel, but she will not bend from her faith, and still bitterly regrets her father’s betrayal of her mother Catherine of Aragon.

Cromwell, used to having the ear of the redoubtable king, begins to find his position increasingly precarious, his grip loosening on the levers of power and influence. Television studies academic Helen Piper explains how the turmoil prompted by Henry’s actions led to a crisis of sovereignty and national identity, producing interesting parallels with post-Brexit Britain. But, as she points out, the most compelling aspect to this final instalment is how the undoing of the king’s once-powerful adviser will play out to its inevitably dark conclusion.

Read more:
The Mirror and the Light: crisis of sovereignty and national identity makes a rich stage for the present

Penguin/Vintage

Many believed Percival Everett’s James, a retelling of Huckleberry Finn with the perspective of the enslaved Jim at its centre, would win this year’s Booker prize. But the honour has gone instead to the bookies’ other favourite, Orbital by Samantha Harvey, a slim tale that exposes the human cost of space exploration in the face of devastating climate crisis.

Six astronauts circle the Earth in the International Space Station as a deadly typhoon gathers above south-east Asia – insignificant humans observing their broken blue planet “with a godly view that’s the blessing and also the curse” as they pursue a distant dream of life elsewhere. Cultural theorist Debra Benita Shaw chillingly describes Harvey’s book as a novel for the end of the world as we know it.

Read more:
Orbital by Samantha Harvey wins the 2024 Booker prize – a short but powerful story urging us to save the planet

Gold table runner embriodered with flowers detail from Hill of Tarvit.
The National Trust for Scotland

It’s a stitch up

An inspiring celebration of the rich heritage of embroidery, Stitched: Scotland’s Embroidered Art has opened its doors at Edinburgh’s Dovecot Studios. The showcase spans 200 years from 1720-1920, exemplifying the craft and skill in often-overlooked gems gathered from National Trust properties across Scotland. Crucially this collection of 80 exquisite pieces powerfully re-evaluates embroidery as something commonly dismissed as “women’s work”.

Textiles academic Collette Paterson pays homage to the intricate artistry of 18th- and 19th-century women, revealing how this quiet mode of domestic feminine expression has been transformed in recent times into a less quiet, subversive form of women’s activism.

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Stitched: from high-born women to crofters’ daughters, exhibition showcases two centuries of Scotland’s finest embroidered art Läs mer…

Warning: this article contains spoilers for Gladiator II.

Twenty-four years after Gladiator, Ridley Scott has returned with a sweeping sequel to his epic tale. Thanks to cutting-edge CGI, Rome’s grandeur – and its downfall – have never looked so breathtaking.

Gladiator II picks up years after the original film, taking place during the reign of the co-emperors Caracalla (played by Fred Hechinger) and Geta (Joseph Quinn) in the early 3rd century AD. The film follows Lucius (Paul Mescal), the son of Russell Crowe’s Maximus (protagonist of the first Gladiator movie). Now an adult, he’s been living in the ancient northwest African kingdom, Numidia, under the guise of a new identity to escape Roman politics.

When Roman forces, led by Tribun Marcus Acacius (Pedro Pascal), invade Numidia, tragedy strikes. Lucius’s wife is killed and he is captured. Purchased as a slave by the Roman Macrinus (portrayed masterfully by Denzel Washington), Lucius is transported to Rome. There he is forced into the brutal world of gladiatorial combat, fighting to bring his captor profit in the arena.

But which of these characters were based on real ancient people – and how far did their fates match the arc they have in Scott’s sequel?

Read more:
Gladiator II: a wavering thumbs up for a rehashed sequel that can’t escape the ghost of Russell Crowe

The trailer for Gladiator II.

The opening invasion scene in Numidia, set in AD200, diverges from the real history. After Julius Caesar’s victory at the Battle of Thapsus in AD46, Numidia (modern-day Algeria) was divided. The eastern part formed the province Africa Nova and the western region around Cirta became a Roman colony. By the early 3rd century AD, the Roman emperor Septimius Severus (not depicted in the film) made Numidia an independent province.

The film’s portrayal of a rebellious Numidian city seems more like a playful nod to the French comic series Asterix and Obelix, where a small village defies Roman domination. Instead of reflecting the complexities of Roman imperialism, the film adopts the trope of a tiny, indomitable group holding out against an empire in a heavily fortified harbour city.

This blending of myth and history evokes a comic strip sensibility rather than a serious historical narrative, prioritising spectacle over accuracy.

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History rewritten for the big screen

Set in AD200, the film places Caracalla and Geta at the centre of political intrigue. This is despite the fact that the real imperial heirs were still only children, around nine and ten years old at the time.

Portraying the young boys as cunning political operators is a stretch that even the most imaginative screenwriter might struggle to defend. Furthermore, in AD200, their father, Septimius Severus, was still very much alive and in control of the empire, continuing his rule for another 11 years.

Then there is Lucilla (Connie Nielsen), the second daughter of Marcus Aurelius. The film casts her in a prominent role though, inconveniently, in real life she had been executed around AD181 or 182 – nearly two decades before the events of Gladiator II.

The portrayal of Macrinus is another historical misstep. Although he rose to power under Septimius Severus and Caracalla, Macrinus did not become emperor until AD217.

Denzel Washington plays Macrinus in the film.
Landmark Media/Alamy Stock Photo

The film dramatises Macrinus’s role by showing him guiding Caracalla in Geta’s murder and even directly assassinating Caracalla in the Circus Maximus, adding a fictional layer to historical events. But in fact, while Macrinus was involved in the conspiracy to eliminate Caracalla, he did not physically kill the emperor himself.

Historical accounts such as those by Cassius Dio or Historia Augusta do not support the movie’s portrayal of Macrinus stabbing Caracalla in such a public setting.

Caracalla was actually murdered in 217AD during a journey from Edessa in Turkey to Carrhae in Syria. The assassin, a soldier named Martialis, struck Caracalla with a fatal blow, reportedly at the behest of Macrinus’ supporters, who sought to elevate him to the throne.

Leaving aside the inaccurate timeline, the film is an opulent portrayal of Roman lifestyle in the mid-imperial period. With impressive battle scenes, gladiator duels, grand festivities and stunning costumes, there’s still plenty to enjoy, even for the most fastidious history buff. Läs mer…

The death of football star Rachid Mekhloufi at the age of 88 has marked the end of an era. For more than half a century, he was an integral part of Algeria’s football landscape, becoming one of the country’s most loved and respected figures.

His journey is a symbol of perseverance, talent, political courage, sacrifice and sportsmanship. Indeed, as a player he was never given a single card for foul play – never sent off, nor flagged by a referee. Those players who have known him closely speak of a humble man, generous with his time and advice to young players.

Mekhloufi is not just known for his contributions to Algerian and French football, as a star player and later as a leading coach, but also for his role as a symbol of Algeria’s independence struggle. The news of his passing was announced by President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, who noted Mekhloufi’s contribution as a player in the national team of the National Liberation Front (FLN) during the Algerian war.

As a scholar of international relations in Algeria and north Africa with a frequent focus on football and Algerian identity and politics, I followed Mekhloufi’s career with great interest.

Read more:
Hamas-Israel conflict: Algeria offers to host Palestine’s football matches – the bigger history

As a kid in the 1970s, I often heard the name Mekhloufi. I remember seeing him for the first time on TV during the Mediterranean Games in Algiers in 1975. He coached the national football team throughout the tournament. Algeria won the gold medal, beating former colonial power France in the final.

Coming from a football mad family, my brothers held him in the highest possible esteem. The win against France ensured that the French national anthem La Marseillaise, a reminder of colonial rule, would not be played on Algerian soil that day. (Algeria had won independence in 1962 after years of war against France.) Instead, it was Kassamen, the national anthem of independent Algeria, that was played. This was one of the moments that cemented Mekhloufi’s status in Algerian football folklore.

He was more than a footballer who mesmerised fans on the pitch, he was a symbol of resistance to many Algerians.

Star player

Mekhloufi was born in 1936 in the city of Sétif, 270km east of Algiers, the capital city. At the time, Algeria was firmly under French rule, an integral part of the French territory.

Undoubtedly, the rich football tradition in Sétif fostered his love of and dedication to the game, shaping his success. In 1952, he joined the USM Sétif football team, following in the footsteps of two other Algerian football heroes who had played for the club, Mokhtar Arribi and Abdelhamid Kermali. They would become his teammates in the rebel football team of the Algerian resistance in the late 1950s and early 1960s. After independence, each served a stint as coach of the national football team.

In 1954, Mekhloufi left Algeria to join AS Saint-Étienne football club in France, where he played until 1958. During that time, he helped the team win its first ever title: they were crowned French champions. Soon enough he won four caps for the French national team.

As a striker Mekhloufi was not only the undisputed star of Saint-Étienne, scoring 78 goals in 192 games, he was also on track to represent France at the 1958 Men’s Football World Cup.

Political role

Nonetheless, in April 1958, two months before the cup, Mekhloufi and other players from Algeria left their various teams in France and formed the Équipe FLN team in neighbouring Tunisia. Algeria’s resistance leaders had called on them to use football to promote the cause for independence and they had responded. The team defied colonialism to represent a country – Algeria – that France did not recognise.

Despite France’s attempts to get world football body Fifa to stop the FLN team from playing, it played almost 100 friendly games against mainly former communist and Arab countries. They may have been criticised by the French media and authorities, but these players were a source of great pride for Algerians. The team’s contribution to raising awareness about Algeria’s struggle cannot be underestimated.

Giving up lucrative club contracts and jeopardising their international football careers is a sacrifice that only a true nationalist was willing to make.

Mekhloufi became known for his political role within football. Eric Cantona, the charismatic French footballer turned actor, for example, told Mekhloufi’s story in the documentary series Football Rebels, which traces the life of footballers like Didier Drogba from Côte d’Ivoire and Socrates from Brazil, who also used their fame, talent and influence to fight for human rights and political change.

Despite having said that he wouldn’t play for Saint-Étienne again, after independence in 1962, Mekhloufi returned to the club. He was central to them winning numerous trophies and championships.

Winning coach

When his playing career was over, Mekhloufi returned to Algeria and took up several positions in football. His period as coach of the national team stands out in particular.

He coached the team that won the gold medal at the All-Africa Games in Algiers in 1978 and became instrumental in the development of a new generation of players. These players would form the backbone of the Algerian national team that entered the 1982 Men’s Football World Cup with Mekhloufi as co-coach. They would pull off a shock victory over Germany to move beyond the qualifying rounds of the tournament for the first time ever.

Read more:
Football and politics: when Algeria won the 2019 Africa Cup of Nations

He would go on to be elected president of the Algerian Football Federation in 1998. In 2013, in recognition of his services, Saint-Étienne offered him a role as an ambassador of the club.

Mekhloufi’s contribution to both Algerian football and the struggle for independence earned him a huge reputation. His achievements will always be a source of pride for Algerians and his legacy will offer a shining example of service to the game and the nation for future generations. Läs mer…

The election of Donald Trump as US president puts the UK in a tricky position on many global issues. But even beyond concerns about Nato’s stability or the special relationship, the UK has serious internal defence issues to address.

British defence is at a critical point, with severe gaps in readiness and a lack of any clear strategy. Decades of limited funding, poor management and lack of direction have made reassessment essential. All of this stems from a chronic lack of clarity as to who the UK is geopolitically and what its armed forces are actually for.

Since 2014, when the last British combat troops left Afghanistan, there was no serious attempt to square the circle of ever-decreasing resources and personnel. The Ministry of Defence took a “do everything, everywhere all the time” approach termed persistent engagement, underwritten by an assumption that if push came to shove against Russia, the US would be there for us.

With a second Trump term looming, there is no time for such dilettantism. Ukraine is facing defeat and there is a serious risk of the US reallocating forces to confront China, leaving Europe (and the UK) somewhat bewildered as to what to do next.

The British armed forces face significant challenges. The British Army cannot deploy a full division — about 10,000 troops ready for combat. The Royal Air Force struggles to defend its airfields, especially against missile attack; the Royal Navy lacks enough crew for its remaining ships.

These shortfalls place the UK far from the ranks of leading militaries. All services suffer from chronic lack of ammunition and supplies. In the words of senior defence academic and former Ministry of Defence official, Rob Johnson, the UK Armed Forces are unprepared for “a conflict of any scale”.

Years of budget cuts, poor resource use and inconsistent leadership have brought us to this point. These issues make it clear that Britain is not meeting its Nato obligations to provide an aircraft carrier task group and two brigades of troops, a fact well understood within defence circles. In a report earlier this year the House of Commons Defence Committee found UK Armed Forces operational readiness to be in doubt.

Reassessing the nuclear deterrent

Trump’s re-election highlights Britain’s complete reliance on the US for its nuclear deterrent. In the words of the cross-party Trident commission as long ago as 2014, the entire programme is “a hostage to American goodwill” – despite claims that the deterrent is “independent”.

Although Trident is operationally controlled by the UK, the missiles and critical guidance systems are American and the submarines themselves are, to a great extent, reliant on US components.

This dependence raises doubts not only as to the degree of control the UK might have in extremis, but about its sustainability — especially if the US rethinks the arrangement. While there is no direct evidence that Trump is considering this, there is no guarantee that a subsequent isolationist administration would not consider such a close connection to a foreign power to be a bigger cost than benefit.

Regardless, a strong pragmatic argument can be made for cutting this particular Gordian knot now. The huge resources supporting it could be better used for building a defence force which would constitute a far more effective deterrent in a world of serious conventional threats in Europe.

UK Secretary of State for Defence John Healey.
Andy Rain/EPA-EFE

Britain’s global role

A more urgent issue is Britain’s lack of a focused defence strategy. The UK must decide: is it a global power or a regional force in the Euro-Atlantic area? It cannot be both.

For 30 years, Britain has acted as a supporting player to the US, pursuing global goals without the means to sustain them.

This has been cloaked by ideas like “global Britain”, most recently echoed in the 2021 Integrated Review, elegantly written yet starry-eyed about military practicalities. Without concrete planning or resources, lofty ambitions like the now-retired idea of a “tilt to the Pacific” are hollow.

The Ukraine war accelerated the realisation that Britain would be better suited as a strong regional power than a weak global one. So it was in the 1980s when Britain focused on securing North Atlantic sea lanes and aiding European defence. A regional strategy would be more sustainable than trying to uphold “global Britain” without anything like the resources to back it.

The upcoming strategic defence review commissioned by the new Starmer government is a chance to address these core issues.

This review isn’t about adjusting budgets, it’s about defining Britain’s military purpose. Practically, it should address big questions, like the value of Britain’s nuclear deterrent and the role of its chronically unreliable aircraft carriers that currently lack support, adequate protection, sufficient crews or even, at times, aircraft.

The return of Trump makes it urgent to define Britain’s defence priorities. The UK must either commit to a robust, independent defence strategy or accept a more limited role influenced by US policy. Läs mer…