Kategori: News in English

Most sexual violence and domestic violence crimes in Canada are male-perpetrated. Data from Statistics Canada shows that men commit 99 per cent of sexual assaults against women and are significantly more likely to offend criminally, including violent crime. Recent data indicates that nearly nine in 10 victims (89 per cent) of police-reported sexual assaults were women and girls between 2015 and 2019.

These statistics paint a grim picture. However, the key to ending domestic violence is hiding in plain sight.

According to new research we are spearheading at the University of Calgary’s Faculty of Social Work and School of Public Policy, 73 per cent of men charged with domestic violence have already interacted with the police at least once. In addition, nearly two-thirds of the men saw a clear increase in police interactions in the previous two years before a domestic violence-related charge in 2019.

Our work finds clear trajectories of behaviour leading to criminal acts of domestic violence. This suggests that the majority of domestic violence can be predicted and prevented.

This research makes it clear. If we want to prevent domestic violence from happening, we need to work with men. We need to remove the burden from survivors by focusing our attention and resources on the people and systems that cause harm – because the cost of raising perpetrators hurts everyone.

About our study

Emerging evidence from our study tells us that distinct red flags emerge right before a criminal charge for domestic violence happens.

Most research on male perpetration focuses on the after-effects of domestic violence crimes, with an emphasis on how survivors can keep themselves safe or how to prevent repeat offences. Instead, our study asks what could have prevented the violence — and the charge — from happening in the first place.

Our research focused specifically on men who faced a domestic violence-related charge in 2019 and whose incidents involved a female partner. Utilizing a 10-year dataset supplied by the Calgary Police Service with a sample size of 934 men, we identified four key typologies of domestic violence perpetrators.

These typologies include perpetrators who had:

1) no prior police involvement before they were charged with domestic violence,

2) prior police involvement only related to domestic violence encounters,

3) a criminal history and no domestic encounters before they were charged, and;

4) both a criminal history and a history of domestic violence encounters before they were charged.

Most research on male perpetration focuses on the after-effects of domestic violence crimes, with an emphasis on how survivors can keep themselves safe or how to prevent repeat offences.
(Shutterstock)

Flipping the script to prevention

In examining these typologies, we found that only 27 per cent of men charged with domestic violence had no prior police involvement beforehand. That means over seven in 10 men had been involved in an incident with police prior to their domestic violence charge.

This pattern suggests domestic violence is not a random event. Most perpetrators of domestic violence have contact with police well before they are charged with a domestic violence crime.

Further, for 64 per cent of men, there was a clear increase in police charges and interactions in the two years before their domestic violence charge. In other words, encounters with police increased right before most perpetrators committed domestic violence, indicating a trajectory.

When nearly three-quarters of men who perpetrate domestic violence have had contact with police before their eventual charge, it’s an important warning sign and a prevention opportunity.

It means we can do better at intervening early to prevent domestic violence from happening. There is a window to prevent the escalation of violence if we provide these men with the right support at the right time.

Our data also shows that domestic violence perpetrators can be found in every neighbourhood and come from all income levels. This means domestic violence is an issue of power, not poverty. We need a prevention strategy that reaches all communities across socioeconomic lines. We need to offer free education, counselling and support services to help men, and their families build and sustain healthy relationships.

The takeaways

Perpetrators are made, not born. Though most men who were charged with domestic violence had a history with police, nearly three in 10 did not.

This means we can’t rely solely on the law enforcement system to identify men at risk for violence. We need to fundamentally change the conditions that turn people into perpetrators.

In isolation, changing policing practices will not end domestic violence. This needs to be paired with a community-government based approach that addresses risk factors before police involvement.

Federal and provincial governments have created violence prevention plans. However, Canada does not currently have a comprehensive national strategy for engaging men and boys to prevent violence, and no comprehensive government action plan that is focused on men and boys exists at the provincial or territorial level anywhere in the country.

Our research hub, Shift: The Project to End Domestic Violence, has been working for over 14 years to stop violence before it starts. We already know the importance of engaging men and boys in the settings where they already live, work, play and worship.

We have the solutions needed to change the cultural and structural conditions that make it possible for men to perpetrate 83 per cent of all violence against women.

Now, we just need the political will and resources to implement them. Läs mer…

As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to reshape industries and transform workplaces, it’s imperative that organizations and leaders examine not only its impact on productivity, innovation and economic gains, but also the ethical implications tied to these transformative technologies.

Integrating an equity, diversity and inclusion (EDI) lens into AI systems is no longer a luxury or optional. It’s essential to ensure AI benefits everyone, including equity-deserving groups such as women, Indigenous Peoples, people living with disabilities, Black and racialized people, and 2SLGBTQ+ communities.

Without this commitment, AI risks reinforcing the existing biases and inequalities, including those based on gender, race, sexual orientation, and visible and invisible disabilities. We already know the deep impact of AI on human resources and recruitment, but its impacts go beyond that.

While AI adoption gaps often dominate the conversation, equally critical are the ethical concerns surrounding its development and deployment. These issues have profound implications for leadership, trust and accountability. Leaders and organizations need greater supports, education and guidance to responsibly guide AI’s integration into the workplace.

The need for ethical AI

AI has the potential to shed light on and address systemic discrimination, but only if it’s designed and used ethically and inclusively. Machine learning algorithms learn patterns from large datasets, but these datasets often reflect existing biases and underrepresentation.

AI systems can inadvertently reinforce these biases. As a scholar and practitioner, I know that data is not neutral; it is shaped by the context — and the people — involved in its collection and analysis.

A clear example of this risk is Microsoft’s Tay Twitter chatbot, which began re-posting racist tweets and was shut down only 16 hours after its release. Tay was “learning” from its interactions with Twitter users.

Such incidents are not only damaging from a public relations angle, they can also affect employees, particularly those from marginalized communities, who may feel alienated or unsupported by their own organization’s technology.

AI is here to stay and it’s bound to play an even bigger role in all our lives over the next few years.
(Shutterstock)

Similarly, the AI avatar app Lensa was shown to turn men into astronauts and other fun and empowering options, while sexualizing women. In industries already grappling with sexism, such as gaming, this sends a troubling message to users, reinforces stereotypes and creates a hostile work environment for employees.

AI technology creators and users must incorporate EDI principles from the ground up. Diversity in AI development teams is one of the most effective safeguards, as it minimizes blind spots.

By embedding EDI values into AI from the outset, creators and users can ensure AI tools and their usage are not compounding the barriers faced by equity-deserving groups, and that corrective measures are developed to mitigate existing and emerging issues.

Leaders must lead

Leaders must recognize how AI can drive changes. It can uncover hidden biases and disparities which can force an uncomfortable reckoning and require humility. Recognizing bias can be challenging — no one wants to be biased, yet everyone is.

By integrating EDI and AI, leaders can open new opportunities for equity-deserving groups. For instance, by combining the power of AI and diverse teams, we can foster inclusive product design that will cater to more consumers, and lead to more success for the organization.

AI should be viewed as an additional tool to help decision-makers, not as a substitute for it. Leaders must ensure AI systems are designed and deployed with inclusivity at their core. They need to address potential disparities before they are encoded into algorithmic decision-making, and correct remaining errors down the line.

Accountability remains at the human level; leaders need humility and courage.

AI is here to stay

Transparency, accountability and inclusivity are becoming increasingly essential in a world where consumers and employees alike are demanding more ethical practices from companies and workplaces.

Organizations that embed ethical AI principles into their systems will not only avoid reinforcing inequalities, but also position themselves as leaders in the market. Some of these principles include fairness, transparency, human oversight, diversity in learning/datasets representativeness and non-discrimination.

Addressing this can build trust, bridge gaps in adoption and counter biases that can perpetuate inequality. AI is here to stay and it’s bound to play an even bigger role in all our lives over the next few years. As it becomes increasingly integral to society, implementing these kinds of principles is essential.

AI technology creators and users must incorporate EDI principles from the ground up.
(Shutterstock)

Clear accountability mechanisms and practices can help ensure AI systems operate in a way that aligns with the values of an organization and society at large. These considerations include verifying and validating AI outputs, ensuring explicability (the ability to explain and justify results), and designing and implementing mechanisms to correct and address biases.

Leaders must foster a culture of innovation and responsibility, where developers, data scientists and other stakeholders understand their roles in minimizing biases, ensuring fairness and prioritizing inclusivity. This can include pursuing EDI certification to build awareness and accountability around biases at all levels of an organization.

Without these commitments, public trust in AI may be undermined and erode the potential benefits that these technologies offer — something that has already been an issue over the last few years.

Strategies for dealing with AI

Leaders have a crucial role to play, recognizing that AI, while transformative, is not a replacement for human oversight. AI on its own is not a panacea to remove biases. To move forward, organizations should:

Involve diverse teams in AI development to ensure varied perspectives and lived experiences shape the technology, improve data and frame its usage.
Cultivate inclusive workplaces where members from equity-deserving groups feel safe to be authentic and to use their voice and feel heard and valued, including when they point out shortcomings and biases.
Prioritize upskilling and reskilling of employees and leaders to improve AI literacy and strengthen critical transferable skills like critical thinking, adaptability, creativity and EDI-related skills.
Establish clear accountability frameworks and conduct regular, rigorous audits to detect and mitigate bias in AI systems. Frameworks should evolve as AI evolves.
Work with other external groups, including governments, non-profits or educational institutions — like the Institute of Corporate Directors, the Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence or Mila AI Institute — to create an ecosystem where supports, resources and information are readily available.

By prioritizing these practices, organizations and leaders alike can lead AI to be both a force for innovation and economic growth, and a model for ethical responsibility furthering the inclusion of equity-deserving groups. AI should benefit everyone in the workplace and in society. Läs mer…

The Albanese government, anxious to prevent a dash from cash by businesses, says it will mandate that they must accept it for essential items.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones outlined the move in a statement, and are also releasing a plan to make the phasing out of cheques as orderly as possible.

Small businesses in general will be exempted from the cash requirement.

Treasury will consult on what businesses will be affected. They are expected to include supermarkets, those supplying basic banking services, those selling pharmaceuticals, petrol stations, utilities and healthcare services.

Through the consultations the government will consider the size of businesses that must accept cash, for example in the supermarket sector whether it would apply only to the largest supermarkets.

The question of distance will be relevant – what would be a reasonable distance for a person to have to travel to find a business that took cash.

The regime would likely be established through regulation, so it could be adjusted over time.

The ministers said although people increasingly use digital methods to pay, about 1.5 million Australians use cash for more than 80% of their in-person payments.

“Cash also provides an easily accessible back-up to digital payments in times of natural disaster or digital outage,” the ministers said.

They said up to 94% of businesses still accept cash “and we want to see cash acceptance continue particularly for essentials”.

The consultations would consider the needs of people relying on cash, including those in regional areas and those unable to use digital payments, as well as the impact on businesses especially small businesses, the ministers said.

The details of the mandate would be announced next year and it is proposed it start from January 1 2026.

Cash mandates are in place in countries including Spain, France, Norway and Denmark and in some American states.

Under the cheque transition plan, cheques will only stop being issued by June 30, 2028 and stop being accepted on September 30, 2029.

Cheque use has fallen by 90% in the last decade. Many banks and other financial institutions are ending providing cheque books for new customers.

The ministers said the government was acting to give customers and businesses the help they needed to switch to other payment methods. Banks also had a responsibility to support users in a smooth transition.

Chalmers has written to the CEOs of the four major banks outlining what is expected of them.

Parliament begins frantic last fortnight for the year

Parliament is commencing its final fortnight sitting for the year with much more legislation on the agenda than it can deal with.

Among its priorities will be the caps on international students for universities which are set to start next year. The caps will cost some universities large amounts of income, and have also come under attack from the retail and hospitality sectors.

The government is also anxious to have passed before the end of the year its aged care reforms, with the opposition agreed in principle but a wealth of detail to be considered.

There is as well legislation for the indexation of HELP student loans and for new school funding.

On Monday the government will introduce its sweeping changes to election donations and spending, with the aim of passing the legislation by the end of next week.

Other legislation includes restricting the age of access to social media to 16 and over, with the bill to be introduced this week. The opposition supports this move, and indeed advocated it before the government, so this has a good prospect of passage this year.

But the bill for controls on misinformation and disinformation appears at this stage to be unlikely to pass, with Fatima Payman, who defected from Labor, among the crossbenchers who has expressed opposition.

The Greens are looking for negotiations to be reopened on the housing legislation they have been holding up.

Greens spokesman Max Chandler-Mather has written to Housing Minister Clare O’Neil with a list of demands on the Build to Rent and Help to Buy bills, saying the Greens would pass the bills if the government “agrees to make progress” on their points.

With the election fast approaching and housing a central issue, it would seem in the interests of both Labor and Greens to strike a deal. Läs mer…

The Nigerian army has spoken of attacks on the Niger-Nigeria border in 2024 as being carried out by a new terrorist group.

This sect is known as Lakurawa … The Lakurawa are affiliated to terrorists in the Sahel, particularly from Mali and Niger Republic.

News reports had the same message: that a new terrorist group was active on this border.

Nigeria’s north-west has a long history of armed banditry. Insecurity, poverty and hunger are at their most severe levels in this region.

The messages being conveyed by the Nigerian army were that the group had emerged as a result of the turmoil following recent coups in the Sahel region.

Niger (July 2023), Mali (August 2020 and May 2021), Guinea (September 2021) and Burkina Faso (January and September 2022) are countries in the Sahel currently ruled by military juntas. Niger shares a border with Nigeria.

Relations between the Nigerian government and Niger are strained.

But it is surprising that the army is labelling this as a new terror group. It has in fact been operating in several communities along the Nigeria-Niger border since 1999.

This is according to research by Murtala Ahmed Rufa’i, an associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Usmanu Danfodiyo University Sokoto.

His book chapter is based on interviews in 2021 with traditional and religious leaders, teachers, vigilante group members, and members of various Islamic sects. He suggested that the Lakurawas were herders who from about 2016 transformed into a criminal group which operated in border communities, with headquarters in Sokoto state.

Rufa’i said the group was formed at the invitation of local traditional leaders seeking assistance in fighting armed bandits. He described Lakurawa as a unique group of terrorists, among the few in the world who are herders, who promote their own version of Islam and also seek to create a caliphate.

In one of our papers we’ve argued that the inability of Nigeria’s government to provide security for its people has led to an increase in ungoverned spaces, which has bred groups like the Lakurawa.

In our view, the group’s growing activities, and the army’s assertion that this is a new development, highlight the fact that the region’s ungoverned spaces are increasing. Making it seem like a newly discovered problem may be an effort by the army to avoid blame.

Read more:
Borderlands in West Africa are ungoverned: why this is bad for security

Who are the Lakurawas?

The Lakurawa group has been known for over 20 years. In his book chapter Rufa’i provides the following insights:

The Lakurawa are armed herders who speak Arabic and Fulfulde. The predominant language in northern Nigeria and many parts of Niger is Hausa, whereas Fulfulde is primarily spoken by the Fulani people.
Members of the group came from Mali to settle in border communities. They married local women, and recruited young people from these communities into jihadist activities.
They promote an interpretation of Islam that deviates from mainstream sects such as Tijjaniya, Qadiriyya and Izala.
They have attempted to implement sharia law in communities where they live.

Rufa’i says the group was initially recruited to fill the security void left by Nigerian state agencies between 2016-2017. Recruitment was arranged by the district head of Balle in Gudu Local Government and the district head of Gongono in Tangaza Local Government, with support from a former chairman of the Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria.

The aim was to protect local communities against armed bandits from Zamfara State.

The Lakurawa were paid for their services and succeeded in dislodging the bandit threat between 2016 and 2017.

However, they soon began their own campaign of violence and imposed their own form of Islam. Consequently, their activities became a threat to the leaders who had invited them to form the armed group. This led to a fallout, culminating in the killing of the district head of Balle.

Since then, the Lakurawa have remained in the area, preaching, collecting taxes from the locals and engaging in other illicit activities.

Read more:
Hundreds of Nigerian children are being kidnapped – the government must change its security strategy

The security vacuum

The porous nature of Nigeria’s borders has been a big factor driving insecurity in these communities. This situation is worsened by the lack of a security presence in many of the affected areas.

Terrorist groups do not recognise borders or state authority. They often seek to create their own mini-states where they can govern, collect taxes, and enforce their own rules or religion.

Linking the Lakurawa’s rise to recent coups in the Sahel might support the narrative of them being “new”. However, the insecurity across the Sahel has led to decades of military operations by the French and their allies.

Labelling the Lakurawa as a new group and attributing their emergence to coups does not lessen the harm done to the sovereign integrity of Nigeria and Niger. It also doesn’t absolve the security agencies and leaders of these countries from their failure to fulfil a basic duty of a government: the protection of lives and property.

Read more:
Nigeria can defeat banditry by reconstructing the police system – criminologist

What’s next for Nigeria’s security strategy?

The Nigerian security forces, under Operation Fansan Yamma and Operation Farautar Mujiya, launched air and ground assaults on camps belonging to the terror group after Lakurawa attacked residents of Mera in Kebbi State, killing 15 people, on 9 November 2024.

But operations like this in the past have not stopped the violent conflicts between the nomadic herders and sedentary farmers nor the activities of Boko Haram and its affiliates in Nigeria. These security measures alone are unlikely to eliminate insecurity without empowering local communities and creating state police. In one of our papers, we suggested that police authority be devolved from the central government to the federating units to enhance the effectiveness and responsiveness of policing.

The reliance of communities on groups like the Lakurawa for protection made it possible for a band of armed herders in Mali to become a powerful terror group in Nigeria. This situation shows how security agencies in Nigeria have failed these communities. Also, it underscores the need to reconsider establishing state police in Nigeria.

Nigerian security agencies’ reactive approach to insecurity must change. The lack of preventive intelligence operations to stop terror groups like the Lakurawa from infiltrating communities is also a major challenge.

In addition, Nigeria must increase its security cooperation with its neighbours to stop the armed groups operating in the Sahel. Läs mer…

Houseflies live close to humans and domesticated animals and because they are so mobile they can easily spread bacteria that make people sick.

They carry these disease-causing agents on their body surfaces and in their gut.

Owing to their diverse habitats, ability to fly long distances and attraction to decaying organic materials, houseflies greatly amplify the risk of human exposure to harmful microorganisms.

A single housefly can carry enough of these to cause infantile diarrhoea, cholera, bacillary dysentery, tuberculosis and anthrax.

The growing threat of antimicrobial resistance

As microbiologists specialising in medical and veterinary bacteria and zoonosis, we collaborated on a study of bacterial communities harboured by houseflies in three hospices in South Africa. We used advanced methods to identify the bacteria.

Our research identified an additional health risk: some of the microbes that the flies carried in their gut may be resistant to antibiotics.

According to the World Health Organization, antimicrobial resistance occurs when bacteria, viruses, fungi and parasites no longer respond to antimicrobial medicines. Antibiotics and other antimicrobial medicines become ineffective and infections become difficult or impossible to treat.

Antimicrobial resistance is one of the leading global public health threats.

How we went about our study

We chose hospices for our study because they house terminally ill patients with weak immune systems.

Adult houseflies were collected at three hospices between September 2019 and February 2020. Two of the hospices were in Bloemfontein and one was in Johannesburg.

A minimum of three ribbon sticky traps were set for three to five days over a two week period. They were located in the kitchens and dining halls to capture houseflies near areas where food was prepared or consumed.

A total of 657 houseflies were collected from the three hospices.

Previously the microbiological culture method was one of the most broadly used tools to identify microbial organisms.

It was considered as a “gold standard” because of its ability to detect new bacterial species and test their susceptibility or resistance to antibiotics.

However, with this old method many bacteria couldn’t be cultivated, especially those harboured by insects.

The bacteria are difficult to isolate, or they grow slowly in the culture.

We were able to use new DNA sequencing methods that get around the need to grow cultures. They help us better understand the diversity of microorganisms on the flies.

We found houseflies captured from hospices harboured highly diverse bacterial communities with antibiotic-resistant genes.

The hospice with the highest prevalence of antibiotic resistance genes was in Bloemfontein. The reason for this prevalence might be the hospice’s proximity to a nursery which produces seedlings for vegetable production, broiler chicks and piggeries.

These types of agricultural activity often involve using antibiotics to prevent and limit the spread of diseases and as growth promoters.

Antibiotics are widely used in animal husbandry, and antibiotic resistance genes are frequently detected in livestock waste around the world.

Looking forward

The presence of houseflies in hospice surroundings is of particular concern because the patients are frail and resistant bacteria are a health hazard.

It’s important to take extra care to limit housefly breeding by following high standards of hygiene. Staff should be informed about the threat of antimicrobial resistance.

Staff should sanitise their hands at building entrances, for example, and kitchen surfaces should be kept very clean.

Waste management is also important. Any garbage kept inside and outside the building should be in sealed containers to avoid contact with flies. Läs mer…

A byelection occurred on Saturday in the South Australian Liberal-held state seat of Black. With all election day votes counted, Labor gained Black by a 60.6–39.4 margin over the Liberals, a 13.3% swing to Labor since the 2022 state election. Primary votes were 46.5% Labor (up 8.4%), 32.3% Liberals (down 17.8%), 15.6% Greens (up 3.8%) and 5.6% Australian Families (new).

SA doesn’t allow pre-poll and postal votes to be counted on election night, so the count is only up to 42% of enrolled voters. ABC election analyst Antony Green expects the large number of pre-poll and postal votes to reduce Labor’s lead, but Labor will still win easily. These votes will be counted from Monday.

This is the second time the SA Labor government has gained a seat from the opposition at a byelection. In March, Labor gained Dunstan, the seat of former SA Liberal premier Steven Marshall. This was the first time in a century that a SA government had gained from the opposition at a byelection.

This byelection was held owing to the resignation of former Liberal leader David Speirs, who became leader after the 2022 election. SA Labor has now gained two former Liberal leaders’ seats.

I don’t think this result is due to a backlash against Donald Trump’s election as US president, as the latest federal polls have been ordinary for Labor.

There’s only been one poll since the 2022 election of SA state voting intentions. That poll, taken in August, gave Labor a 60–40 lead. A very popular Labor government is the most likely explanation for this byelection result.

Australian economic data

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said wages grew 0.8% in the September quarter, the same as in the June quarter, but 12-month wage growth dropped to 3.5% from 4.1%. With headline inflation up 0.2% in the September quarter and up 2.8% in the previous 12 months, real (inflation-adjusted) wages were up 0.6% in the September quarter and up 0.7% in the previous 12 months.

Real wages have increased in the last four quarters, but they fell for the two years until September 2023, with the fall peaking in December 2022 at above a 4% real wage drop.

The ABS said the October unemployment rate was unchanged from September at 4.1%, with 15,900 jobs added. The employment population ratio (the percentage of eligible Austalians who are employed) remained at 64.4%, an equal record high.

Federal Morgan poll: Coalition retains narrow lead

A national Morgan poll, conducted November 4–10 from a sample of 1,665, gave the Coalition a 50.5–49.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the October 28 to November 3 Morgan poll.

Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (down 0.5), 30.5% Labor (steady), 12.5% Greens (down 1.5), 6.5% One Nation (up 0.5), 8.5% independents (up one) and 4.5% others (up 0.5).

The headline figure uses respondent preferences. By 2022 election flows, Labor led by an unchanged 51–49.

Additional Resolve questions

Support for the Greens was down one to 11% in the November national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, their lowest since February. Newspoll and Morgan have also shown a drop for the Greens.

Greens leader Adam Bandt’s net likeability was -15 in Resolve, equal with October as his lowest net likeability since February. The Greens’ net likeability was -19, their worst since August.

Other politicians and parties’ net likeability was -40 for Lidia Thorpe, -23 for Pauline Hanson, -15 for Bob Katter, -10 for Albanese, -4 for Labor, -1 for Dutton and +7 for the Liberals.

On flight upgrades, 36% said MPs should get upgrades for work but not personal flights,, 25% wanted no upgrades and 23% wanted them always allowed. By 45–39, voters thought MPs should continue to accept airline lounge memberships as long as they declare it.

On Albanese’s acceptance of benefits, 35% said he should not have accepted them for personal flights, but it was OK for official travel, 30% said it was OK to accept them and 24% said he should not have accepted benefits for either work or personal flights.

WA state and federal polls

The Western Australian state election will be held in March 2025. The Poll Bludger reported on November 13 that a DemosAU poll, conducted October 30 to November 4 from a sample of 948, gave Labor a 56–44 lead.

Primary votes were 41% Labor, 34% Liberals, 4% Nationals, 12% Greens and 9% for all Others. Labor incumbent Roger Cook had a 42–29 lead over the Liberals’ Libby Mettam as preferred premier.

The federal version of this poll gave Labor a 52–48 lead in WA, a 3% swing to the Coalition from the 2022 federal election. Primary votes were 38% Coalition, 34% Labor, 14% Greens, 6% One Nation and 8% for all Others. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 40–33. A federal WA Redbridge poll gave Labor a 54.5–45.5 lead.

Victorian Resolve poll: Pesutto now preferred premier

A Victorian state Resolve poll for The Age, conducted with the federal October and November Resolve polls from a sample of over 1,000, gave the Coalition 38% of the primary vote (up one since September), Labor 28% (up one), the Greens 13% (down one), independents 14% (down one) and others 7% (steady).

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party figure, but The Poll Bludger estimated a Coalition lead by 50.5–49.5. Liberal leader John Pesutto led Labor incumbent Jacinta Allan as preferred premier by 30–29, a reversal of a 30–29 lead for Allan in September. It’s the first time Pesutto has led on this measure.

By 42–37, voters supported the building of more high-density housing near train and tram stations in their area.

US election late counting

I continue to follow United States election late counting for The Poll Bludger. Republicans have a 52–47 lead over Democrats in called Senate races, and are likely to win the final uncalled contest in Pennsylvania.

In the House of Representatives, Republicans have a 218–212 lead in called races with five uncalled. I expect Republicans to win two of the uncalled races, Democrats two and one is still undecided. Läs mer…

With Donald Trump returning to the White House, the relationship between the US and Iran could change significantly.

Trump’s unconventional foreign policy led to a period of heightened confrontation with Iran during his first term in office. However, the regional dynamics have evolved over the past four years, and Trump’s approach to Iran may shift as a result.

Tensions are running high between the two adversaries. Last Friday, the US Department of Justice unveiled federal charges in what it said was a thwarted Iranian plot to assassinate Trump. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed the allegations as “fabricated”.

In a report in the Wall Street Journal, Iranian officials also told the US government in a secret exchange last month that the country wouldn’t seek to kill Trump.

So, will these tensions continue in a second Trump term? Or might there be an opportunity for Iran and the US to actually improve relations?

How did the ‘maximum pressure’ policy work?

During his first term, Trump enacted a so-called “maximum pressure” policy aimed at curbing Iran’s growing influence in the Middle East.

Iran had grown much stronger after sanctions were lifted as part of the 2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), negotiated by the Obama administration.

Trump withdrew from this agreement in 2018. The US re-imposed severe sanctions on Iran and an embargo on its oil exports. This had severe impacts on Iran’s economy and contributed to social unrest within the country.

A man reads the Iranian daily newspaper Sazandegi in 2019, with pictures of then-Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and US President Donald Trump on its front page.
Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA

In January 2020, tensions between the US and Iran culminated in the assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani by a US drone strike. This led to reprisal attacks by Iran on a US military base in Iraq.

In response to these mounting pressures, Iran scaled back its adherence to the JCPOA. It barred International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors from monitoring its nuclear program and enriched uranium to near-weapons-grade level.

Regional dynamics have changed

Over the past four years, there have been substantial shifts in Iran’s relationships with Arab states in the region.

Most significantly, Iran and its chief rival, Saudi Arabi, resumed diplomatic relations in March 2023, marking a historic end to a long period of hostility.

Relations between the two nations quickly progressed to a level of co-operation unthinkable just years ago. And as Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon have continued, Saudi Arabia has drifted away from Israel and closer to its biggest foe, Iran.

Although some scepticism remains, the foreign ministers of both countries met last month in Riyadh, followed by a meeting this week between the general chief of staff of Saudi Arabia’s armed forces and his counterpart in Tehran.

And at a summit of regional leaders in Riyadh this week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged Israel to respect Iranian sovereignty and accused Israel of “collective genocide” in Gaza. The summit resolution also warned of the danger of Israel’s “expansion of aggression” against Iran and other regional countries.

The latest confrontations between Iran and Israel have underscored both nations’ destructive capabilities. A war between them would likely trigger a catastrophic broader conflict that could draw in the United States, Russia and other players. Such a scenario would have profound economic and security repercussions worldwide.

Trump’s stance towards Iran

In his campaign for a second term, Trump has consistently spoken out against prolonged US involvement in wars. He also signalled a more conciliatory approach to Iran. Rejecting the idea of US-driven regime change in Tehran, he remarked:

I would like to see Iran be very successful. The only thing is, they can’t have a nuclear weapon.

He further expressed a hope for improved relations: “I’m not looking to be bad to Iran, we’re going to be friendly, I hope.”

Elon Musk, the tech billionaire closely allied with Trump, also met with Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations earlier this week in a bid to defuse tensions in the next administration, The New York Times reported.

However, other reports indicate that Trump’s top advisers are planning to reinstate the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. It would include increasing sanctions again and choking off Iran’s oil income by “going after foreign ports and traders who handle Iranian oil”.

Trump’s unpredictable policymaking style suggests it is too early to know what approach he might take.

Iran’s stance toward a second-trump Term

Iran is now led by a reformist government (by Iranian standards), whose tenure would overlap with much of Trump’s second term.

President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration has voiced its desire to improve relations with the West and resume nuclear talks. And contrary to previous reformist governments in Iran, it generally enjoys the support of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the ultimate power in the country.

Despite its military strength, Iran faces deep economic challenges, with public dissatisfaction growing. Therefore, Iran may seek to prioritise diplomatic solutions with the new Trump administration, knowing any escalation could destabilise the region.

In a sign of openness towards Trump, Iran’s vice president for strategic affairs, Mohammad Javad Zarif, has urged him to reassess the policy of “maximum pressure”, saying: “Trump must show that he is not following the wrong policies of the past.”

In the same vein, Araghchi, the foreign minister, has sent positive signals to Trump, saying:

The path forward is also a choice. It begins with respect […] Confidence-building is needed from both sides. It is not a one-way street.

He also emphasised that Iran is “NOT after nuclear weapons”.

Iran has yet to respond to Israel’s latest direct attack in late October. Though Iran has launched two direct attacks of its own on Israel this year, it may seek to de‑escalate tensions. In a statement in late October, Iran’s military said a ceasefire in the Gaza and Lebanon conflicts is more important than retaliation against Israel.

If a ceasefire were to occur, the region could enter a period of relative calm after a year of heightened tensions. This would present a valuable opportunity for the US to work with Israel, Arab states and potentially Iran towards a more permanent regional peace framework. Läs mer…

Justin Welby resigned as archbishop of Canterbury following a damning report about a prolific child abuser in the Church of England. The report into decades of abuse of more than 100 boys perpetrated by the barrister John Smyth QC in the UK, South Africa and Zimbabwe detailed the Church of England’s cover-up of the abuse.

It found that Welby failed to act on safeguarding concerns after he was notified of the abuse in 2013. This, and the fact that he had an acquaintanceship with Smyth since they were briefly colleagues in the 1970s, left his position untenable.

“It is very clear that I must take personal and institutional responsibility for the long and retraumatising period between 2013 and 2024,” Welby said in his resignation statement. There have since been more calls for church figures to resign.

Thousands of survivors of institutional child abuse all over the UK will have watched the unfolding news with a mixture of wearied recognition and horror. Many will be retraumatised.

The Church of England’s response contains rhetoric about “victim-centred” and “trauma-informed” responses to Smyth’s victims, and the promise of future reform that will act on the advice of experts.

This is a familiar story cycle for those of us who study abuse in institutions: scandal, pressure on a figurehead to resign (initially resisted and then succumbed to), followed by a promise of root-and-branch reform. But what it can often miss is the enduring, corrosive impact these scandals have on all abuse survivors.

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At the heart of institutional child abuse are three parties. First, the victim (or victims). Second, the shadowy figure of the abuser (or abusers). Third, and crucially, the organisation that fails to protect and then compounds the abuse by dismissing, denying or minimising it.

The psychoanalyst Sandor Ferenczi, writing more than 100 years ago, suggested that it is the witnessing of the abuse by a third party (sometimes described as a bystander), that is key to making the abuse traumatic to the victim.

In other words, the institution is every bit as responsible for the long-term psychological harm as the original abuser. It is in their betrayal in failing to protect and in communicating the shamefulness of what has happened through the cover-up that carries additional traumatic impacts.

From this perspective, the Church of England in this case not only failed to safeguard these children, but was an active partner in causing harm to them. Survivor scepticism about promises of institutional reform may appear cynical to well-intentioned reformists. But this is a way to manage what victims see as an ongoing threat from the institution by not taking what they say at face value.

What is so saddening about the Church of England’s response so far is that it also fits into a survivor worldview that can deepen their trauma. The focus on the institution, which has already failed survivors, makes the prospect for real change feel even more hopeless. This sense of a “foreshortened future” – where survivors feel that life will not improve for them, that their life is already behind them and hope of positive change and growth have disappeared – is a key feature of trauma.

A clerical response

Religious institutions are particularly poorly placed to make the changes they need to in the wake of abuse scandals, to prevent future harms and to deliver the justice that victims demand.

While there is no doubt genuine contrition, there is also a recognisably religious tone to the solutions proposed. This is evident when religious orders seek to manage serious child abusers through internal mechanisms and using prayer and other religious practices as a solution to both alleviate harm to victims and promote the rehabilitation of abusers.

There is a clericalism in these responses that mirrors the conditions that led to abusers like Smyth being able to act with impunity in the first place.

Clericalism refers to a phenomenon in religious institutions whereby the theological foundation on which institution operates is according to church law and connected to divine providence, and therefore given primacy. Secular law is left necessarily subordinate.

Clearly, when it comes to safeguarding children, this is not an approach that has worked well for the church. And yet it is a belief so deeply ingrained it is difficult for it to be recognised by those subject to it.

A sense of hopelessness and a ‘foreshortened future’ is a key feature of trauma.
Bricolage/Shutterstock

One suggestion for the Church of England is to take a break from focusing on scripture and have a read of the poet and activist Audre Lorde, who observed that: “The master’s tools will never dismantle the master’s house.”

Above all, what needs to be communicated is a message of realistic hope, followed by action that realises the promise of that fragile hope. A demonstration that institutions can learn from examples of others that have responded well to their failures, without trying to locate them in a distant past. Evidence that survivors can heal from child abuse and can be supported to talk about their experiences in a way that feeds into substantive institutional change. And a willingness for the institution to subject itself to external regulation and to act in partnership with survivor-led groups who understand the differences between shallow and meaningful reform.

This is painstaking work, and it will necessitate the loss of privilege in religious institutions, and of long-held beliefs about their divine right to regulate themselves. But without it, all talk of being victim-centred is just that – talk. Läs mer…

This is the one time of year where the eyes of the world are all on climate change. When it makes the news every single night, and everyone hopes that, miraculously, almost 200 countries will somehow put aside insurmountable differences to come together and solve this crisis in a tidy two-week period. Then, we can all stop worrying about how our family and friends will survive the largest threat to civilisation.

Another UN climate summit is upon us as negotiators, world leaders and professional hangers-on have gathered for more talks, this time in Baku, Azerbaijan. Once again, thousands of people attempt to move action on climate change forward at glacial speed (hopefully not retreating at glacial speed which is happening considerably faster).

These UN conferences can feel far removed from the daily life of the average person switching on the news or reading an article, only to be relentlessly bombarded the most complicated and impenetrable jargon and acronyms imaginable. So, do you know your NDC from your NCQG?

Obviously, these acronyms are perfectly fine and well-intentioned from an internal UN perspective, where they are used daily by climate experts and national representatives. But as soon as they enter the wider world, they become utterly meaningless to most people.

I spend a lot of time speaking to non-experts because, alongside lecturing, I am a comedian who talks about climate change. Which I realise is an odd combination, but not as odd as being Cop president and chief executive of an oil company.

I am well versed in trying to make jargon more accessible and dare I say, funny, to the public. So, I’ve got a game for you to make understanding this all a bit more fun – get your pens ready for Cop29 acronym bingo. Six points if you come across all of them in the next news bulletin you read or listen to.

UNFCCC

A sailor went to the UN F triple sea sea sea. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is the process for a global response to tackle climate change. The international treaty was initially signed in 1992 and since then, this organisation has been the party host for Cop, bringing all these countries together.

The UNFCCC headquarters is in Bonn, Germany.
International Development Issues / Alamy Stock Photo

Cop

Emergency. Emergency. Call 999. The Conference of the Parties is the annual meeting of the countries or regions signed up to the UNFCCC. Here the negotiations dictate the world’s plan of action to mitigate and adapt to climate change. It is often referred to as the UN climate talks, summit or conference – that’s more informative than referring to Cop. Perhaps the name could incorporate the year in question, rather than the number of times that Cops have happened. So “climate talks 24 in Baku” would be much more self-explanatory than Cop29 (the 29th climate Cop). Especially when there’s an equivalent biodiversity Cop (currently numbered at Cop16, but that’s another story).

NDC

As easy as ABC, it’s an NDC. This is a nice simple one. Nationally determined contributions are the promises that each party (country) of the UNFCCC makes to all the other countries about what they plan to do about climate change. It includes their pledges to adhere to the legally binding Paris agreement goals. It is decided by each party themselves, and they basically say “we’re going to try our best and this is what we’re going to do”.

NCQG

With a lack of vowels, this one is a mouthful – it sounds like a company that runs a multi-storey car park. NCQG refers to the new collective quantified goal on climate finance. And if you think the acronym is dry then you should see the negotiations. (I actually sat in on the negotiations for these last year for an afternoon because I am an absolute nerd).

Matt Winning signalling the number of times the annual transfer in the NCQG needs to be multiplied at a bare minimum.
Matt Winning, Author provided (no reuse)

The NCQG determines how much money rich countries should be sending to poorer countries to actually help them, given that they are the countries who’ve contributed the least to causing climate change, the main countries impacted by climate change, and have the least amount of money to spend on dealing with the impacts or reducing their emissions.

Nap

True to their name, reading them will often put you to sleep. The national adaptation plans are developed by countries to prepare for the current and coming climate impacts such as droughts, floods and extreme weather in their own countries and how their people and economies will deal with a shift in climate.

Bicfit

Not a watch that measures your daily steps and heart rate. This was actually a new one to me this year. It is the Baku initiative for climate finance, investment and trade. It appears to be a voluntary initiative that aims to bring together various elements of climate trade, finance and investment that has been introduced this year at the Azerbaijan summit. Basically, nobody knows how this will work yet. It might be useful, it might not. But boy is that a long acronym.

So, making dry climate negotiations relevant and engaging to the general public is hard. There should be more focus on simply using the negotiations to tell good climate stories during this annual two-week period. About why the negotiations are important, rather than the ins and outs of possible policies and agreements. We have people’s attention. Let’s improve climate literacy to use it to better effect.

Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?
Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far. Läs mer…

At the end of Michael Bond’s Paddington Marches On (1964), Paddington is preparing for a trip to Peru to visit Aunt Lucy. By the start of the next book, Paddington at Work (1966), he’s already en route back to England. Although Bond’s series hints at Paddington’s Peruvian origins, readers are never actually taken there.

So, it was a major departure when the writers of the recent Paddington films decided to take the bear there in the latest instalment. The recent recipient of a (shiny, blue) British passport, Paddington embarks upon a search for his Aunt Lucy, who appears to have disappeared into the Peruvian jungle.

Long before Paddington’s adopted British family, the Browns, have set foot in Peru, the audience has already seen many images of the country of Paddington’s birth. The film opens with a prologue set in Peru’s vast, misty rainforests, where we see Paddington as a cub being swept along a river.

Later, the Browns’ conversations reinforce stereotypes, painting Peru as a wild and dangerous place. Mr Brown says it’s a “land of altitude sickness and uncharted jungles” with scary animals, while Mrs Bird, the Browns’ live-in housekeeper and distant relative, describes it as home to three of the most dangerous roads in the world.

This perception continues when the Browns arrive in the country, with a Peruvian driver smiling as he says “nice view, uh?” – as they look down nervously at narrow mountain roads.

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The Peruvian setting and characters in Paddington in Peru often feel like background decor. Scenes feature busy towns, daily routines and children in bright, traditional clothing posing with Paddington. Yet, only a few local characters (including the taxi driver) have speaking parts.

Among those with lines are Hunter Cabot (Antonio Banderas), his daughter Gina (Carla Tous), and Mother Superior (Olivia Colman). Although early scenes show Peru’s towns and cities, only these characters have substantial roles, and none are portrayed by Peruvian actors.

Both Banderas and Tous are Spanish, while Colman is British. Aunt Lucy’s retirement home, previously located in Lima, is now in a jungle, isolating her from any modern, urban representation of Peru. This differs from Paddington’s London, where his interactions with locals shape his journey. In Peru, these interactions feel minimised.

The film is structured as a “quest narrative”. Paddington is ostensibly searching for Aunt Lucy, yet soon discovers clues leading him and the Browns toward the mythical city of gold, El Dorado, hinting at a colonial-era fascination with the “exotic” and “unknown”.

This premise aligns with 19th- and early 20th-century European adventure tales, where the protagonist confronts wild, unfamiliar landscapes that serve as obstacles to overcome. As children’s literature professor Evelyn Arizpe notes, in these narratives, the land often functions as a backdrop for European characters to prove themselves, rather than a place with its own agency.

Similarly, in Paddington in Peru, the country becomes a tool for the Browns’ self-growth, helping resolve family issues and personal doubts without conveying whether Peru itself benefits. It’s significant that Paddington and Aunt Lucy, the two Peruvian figures with whom audiences are familiar, lack agency or enthusiasm for the quest to find El Dorado. Instead, they’re drawn in by European explorers’ ambitions.

Nicholas Daly, a professor of English and American literature, has argued that treasure maps in such narratives perpetuate European fantasies of mastery, presenting exotic spaces as mysterious-yet-conquerable puzzles. And this sense of control is reinforced by the visual metaphors employed by the three Paddington films.

While London is depicted in 3D pop-up books and dollhouses in the first two films, Peru appears only as flat aerial maps or an endless jungle canopy, rendering it an undifferentiated wilderness. The quipu, a record of information, is presented as a mystical form of communication, and Incan ruins are shown without any modern cultural continuity, leaving the impression that ancient Peruvian history is detached from the present.

While the film acknowledges colonial violence through the Cabot family, their “curse” of seeking El Dorado only minimally addresses colonial impacts. Hunter Cabot is depicted as the descendant of European colonists including a conquistador, prospector and priest, demonstrating an understanding of the range of methods by which imperial power over South America was exerted.

It is perhaps significant these colonisers are coded as Spanish rather than British. While this does reflect the real colonial history of the continent, it also partially absolves the Browns and the British audience of any connection with these historical crimes.

Hunter’s pursuit of treasure is portrayed as madness, contrasting with the Browns’ supposedly innocent curiosity – though their search for El Dorado follows the same problematic template. The film doesn’t ask if viewers are complicit in such a colonial gaze, hinting instead that only the Cabots’ overt greed is wrong.

As we explore in our forthcoming book about the Paddington series, his roots in “Darkest Peru” are, in any case, a colonial accident. Bond had originally envisioned Paddington coming from Africa, but changed it to Peru after his agent, Harvey Unna, pointed out “there are no bears in Africa, darkest or otherwise”. This shift didn’t erase colonialist connotations, and the “darkest” label retains colonial-era stereotypes.

Peru, in fact, has never mattered much to the series beyond being a vague “elsewhere” in the tradition of exotic and racially coded origins. In this sense, Paddington in Peru isn’t a departure from Bond’s original setup so much as a continuation of it. Peru exists as a backdrop for a British adventure, rather than as a place in its own right.

What can Paddington Bear’s citizenship journey teach our leaders?
Join The Conversation UK and migration experts in London on November 16 for a screening of Paddington in Peru and a discussion on migration, citizenship and belonging.
Click here for more information and tickets. Läs mer…