Kategori: News in English

Thanks to bestselling authors like Jonathan Haidt and Jean Twenge, the public has become increasingly aware of the rapid rise in mental health issues among younger people in many western countries. Their warnings about the destructive impact of social media have had an effect, reflected not least in a wave of schools across Europe banning smartphones.

While it’s good to draw attention to the rising rates of depression and anxiety, there’s a risk of becoming fixated on simplistic explanations that reduce the issue to technical variables like “screen time”. In my book, Why We Worry: A Sociological Explanation, I aim to broaden the discussion.

A hallmark of Twenge and Haidt’s arguments is their use of trend lines for various types of psychological distress, showing increases after 2012, which Haidt calls the start of the “great rewiring” when smartphones became widespread. This method has been criticised for overemphasising correlations that may say little about causality. Another problem is the limited timeframe of these analyses.

Most of the graphs in Haidt’s book The Anxious Generation begin around 2002 and end around 2018. Drawing definitive conclusions from just 16 years of data presents several challenges.

One such challenge is that earlier increases are obscured. For instance, when Haidt shows a rise in psychological distress in Nordic countries starting in 2010, we don’t see what happened before 2002. It risks giving the impression that nothing changed before the spread of smartphones.

However, in Sweden, the Public Health Agency has collected data on mental wellbeing among young people since 1986. Looking at self-reported issues with low mood, it’s clear there has been a longer upward trend since the 1980s.

Proportion of boys and girls, ages 11-15, who report feeling low almost every day during the last six months from 1985-86 to 2017-18, Public Health Agency of Sweden.

Similarly, although the 2010s brought a spike among girls, sleep problems have increased long before the introduction of smartphones.

Proportion of boys and girls, ages 11-15, who report having sleep problems almost every day during the last six months from 1985-86 to 2017-18, Public Health Agency of Sweden.

We also see an earlier onset of rising mental health issues in countries like Norway and the UK. According to a review in the journal Psychological Medicine, the reported prevalence of long-standing mental health conditions among four- to 24-year-olds increased sixfold in England between 1995 and 2014 and more than doubled in Scotland between 2003 and 2014.

The US also shows a longer-term increase in mental health issues. Twenge, one of the most prominent critics of youth smartphone use, wrote in 2000 that the “average American child in the 1980s reported more anxiety than child psychiatric patients in the 1950s”.

In 2011, she noted that “almost all of the available evidence suggests a sharp rise in anxiety, depression, and mental health issues among Western youth between the early 20th century and the early 1990s”.

This brings us to a mystery that deepens when we examine the World Mental Health surveys – a series of community psychiatric
surveys coordinated by the World Health Organization and conducted in 30 countries.

Mean lifetime prevalence of mental disorders in the World Mental Health surveys in the country income groups (2001-11)

In 17 of 18 mental problems, there is a consistent pattern of prevalence being lower in the low- and lower-middle-income countries than in high-income countries. This stark difference, which contrasts sharply with patterns in physical health, cannot be explained by smartphone access, as the national surveys were conducted between 2001 and 2011.

So, what can explain this geographical and historical variation beyond the introduction of smartphones and social media?

Numerous academics, including me, have pointed to factors such as an increasing intolerance for uncertainty in modernity, a fixation – both individual and collective – on avoiding risk, intensifying feelings of meaninglessness in work and life more broadly and rising national inequality accompanied by growing status anxiety. However, it’s important to emphasise that social science has so far failed to provide definitive answers.

One could contend that all social problems, even those that social science has yet to fully understand, affect mental health. It seems unlikely that the political and social challenges we face wouldn’t influence our wellbeing. Reducing the issue to isolated variables, where the solution might appear to be to introduce a new policy (like banning smartphones) follows a technocratic logic that could turn good health into a matter for experts.

The risk with this approach is that society as a whole is excluded from the analysis. Another risk is that politics is drained of meaning. If political questions such as structural discrimination, economic precarity, exposure to violence and opioid use are not regarded as shaping our wellbeing, what motivation remains for taking action on these matters? Läs mer…

International cocoa prices have experienced a historic price surge, rising by over 300% in the space of 12 months from £2,166 per tonne of cocoa in April 2023 to £9,980 by April 2024. Prices have fallen since then, and are currently hovering around the £6,400 mark at the time of writing.

This rally, which is the highest on record for cocoa, was driven by poor harvests in the Ivory Coast and Ghana. Powerful El Niño weather events, coupled with years of underinvestment that left Ghana’s cocoa trees vulnerable to diseases, have decimated yields.

In February 2024 Ghana’s cocoa board, Cocobod, revised its cocoa crop forecast down 40% from its initial target of 820,000 metric tonnes for the 2023–24 season. Ghana and the Ivory Coast account for nearly 60% of global cocoa production, so markets reacted to the news swiftly.

We are researchers of the global cocoa trade, and one of us is particularly familiar with the mechanics of Ghana’s cocoa sector. Fuad is currently the head of the Ghana Cocoa Marketing Company UK, which facilitates trade transactions between the Cocoa Marketing Company Ghana (CMC) – a subsidiary of Cocobod and the monopoly seller of Ghanaian cocoa beans – and its clients across the world.

The tripling of cocoa prices in London, which serve as the benchmark for west African cocoa, should have been a blessing for Ghana’s economy and its cocoa farmers, many of whom have long struggled with low incomes. However, the prices farmers are paid for their cocoa (farmgate prices) remained well below international market prices despite the extraordinary surge.

Cocobod increased farmgate prices by 58% in April, followed by another 45% hike at the start of the 2024–25 season in September. This latter move increased the price farmers are paid per tonne of cocoa from 33,120 Ghanaian cedis (£1,599) to 48,000 Ghanaian cedis (£2,304).

A further 3.3% price increase was announced by Ghana’s president, Nana Akufo-Addo, during the celebration of Ghana’s National Farmer’s Day on November 8 in a bid to motivate cocoa farmers.

These price hikes are significant, but they have not kept pace with the movement in the global benchmark. This has led to a growing gap between farmgate prices in Ghana and the Ivory Coast, and the international market.

The gap between the global benchmark cocoa price and the farmgate price received in Ghana and the Ivory Coast grew last year.
KnowledgeCharts LLC

Locking prices in early

In our recent working paper, we show that the limited pass-through of global prices to farmers in Ghana was primarily due to the combined effect of a longstanding forward sales strategy and a financing structure that relies on a loan sourced from a group of international banks (a syndicated loan).

For decades, the CMC has used forward sales to hedge against downward trending prices. This involves selling up to 70% of the anticipated cocoa crop between nine and 12 months ahead of harvest to international traders and local processors at prices tied to the global benchmark.

The average price secured through these contracts is then used to set farmgate prices before the start of each cocoa season. This system protects farmers from price drops in a declining market, but it does not allow them to benefit if the spot price at harvest is above the forward price that is achieved by the CMC.

With a near-tripling of cocoa prices in only 12 months, the average forward prices secured by the CMC were significantly lower than the levels achieved in international spot markets. This limited the potential for a substantial increase in farmgate prices.

Besides price risk management, the forward sales fulfil another role. For over 31 years, Cocobod has relied on a syndicated loan to finance the purchase of cocoa beans from farmers, as well as farming inputs such as fertilisers and jute bags. The forward contracts are used as collateral against which the loan is drawn.

Cocobod has raised nearly US$28 billion (£21.6 billion) through the loan since its inception. Given the size of the cocoa sector in the overall economy – cocoa has ranked consistently among Ghana’s top four exports over the past three decades – the loan’s importance goes beyond the cocoa trade.

The loan has provided the Ghanaian central bank with the ability to borrow hard currency at affordable interest rates. Hard currency is needed to pay for imports and to stock up on foreign exchange reserves. This is particularly needed now as Ghana’s debt crisis has made other means of external borrowing more challenging since 2021.

Because of the need for collateral to secure the loan, forward contracts must be signed and prices locked in before the season starts. This limits the volume of cocoa that can be sold at a more favourable spot price when market conditions improve.

Cocoa prices surged by more than 300% between April 2023 and April 2024.
CW Studios Global / Shutterstock

Breaking free

A downward trending cocoa price over the longer term remains a concern. But extreme weather caused by climate change, and the resulting increased market volatility, have put into question the sustainability of both the forward sales system and the loan.

So, in August 2024 the chief executive of Cocobod, Joseph Boahen Aidoo, announced that Ghana would not raise a loan for the 2024–25 season. The decision to end three decades of dependency on this financing model was made in light of significantly higher interest rates, which has made offshore borrowing much less attractive.

Cocobod’s new financing model requires licensed buying companies (LBCs), which are responsible for purchasing cocoa beans from farmers at the price set by Cocobod, to secure funding independently. Previously, they received centralised funding from Cocobod through the loan.

Under this new system, LBCs primarily source funding from international cocoa traders and, to a lesser extent, domestic banks. The LBCs buy cocoa from farmers with the secured funding and deliver it to the CMC. They are then reimbursed for the amount they paid farmers for the beans plus an agreed margin for their service by Cocobod.

However, the need for LBCs to secure their own financing within a short planning window poses challenges for some in the 2024–25 season, particularly as local firms face hurdles in accessing affordable domestic credit. In an effort to ensure sufficient volumes, many international traders have established sourcing partnerships with local buyers. But some local buyers argue that this could further consolidate power among multinational firms because the buyers would essentially become beholden to them.

Ghana’s 31-year reliance on the cocoa-backed loan has constrained its ability to fully capitalise on price rallies. The shift to a new financing model grants the CMC flexibility to time its cocoa sales, utilising both forward and spot contracts. It also has the potential to improve cash liquidity for Ghana’s cocoa buying companies.

With proper execution and commitment by Cocobod to ensure timely reimbursement, this approach could reshape Ghana’s cocoa industry and significantly improve the livelihoods of nearly 1 million cocoa farming families. Läs mer…

If I had to sum up COP29 in a single word, it would be entropy. Borrowed from thermodynamics, this concept describes the delicate balance between order and disorder, a principle that governs both natural and human systems. An ecosystem, much like the climate negotiations, is not static; it is constantly evolving, adapting and reconfiguring itself.

In a curiously organic way, a COP also works like this, as a chaotic yet seamless gathering of voices, interests and perspectives.

The endless summit corridors are packed with almost 60,000 participants, each navigating their way to uncertain outcomes at predetermined destinations: a negotiating table, a roundtable discussion or a profound conversation on the future of the climate. In this global microcosm, where governments, businesses, NGOs and academics converge, the interplay of interests is never stable, yet the wheels of the system remain constantly in motion.

My watch (and feet) can attest to the sheer scale of this gathering. During my time here I have been clocking over 25,000 steps per day, roughly half a marathon, in my efforts to keep up with the rushing, incessantly conversing human tides.

The energy transition maze: complexity and interdependence

It is easy to point fingers at the more than 1,700 representatives from the oil and gas sectors attending COP29, yet their role in the energy transition is absolutely crucial. After COP28, even giants like ExxonMobil and Shell acknowledged that their future depends on diversifying their portfolios and transitioning to more sustainable business models. The current market is not, however, designed to make clean energy as profitable as oil and gas – complex systemic issues present roadblocks to a competitive transition.

The cost of solar energy has plummeted by 88% since 2010, and onshore wind by 68%. While this has helped to foster key industries such as electric vehicles and solar panels, clean energy is still far from being self-sufficient. Its success depends on a much more complex interplay between industry, governments and infrastructure.

In Spain, for instance, renewables account for 61.5% of installed capacity, with 78,968 MW of production, yet the stark reality is that there are 130 GW of renewable projects waiting to be connected to an electricity grid that is not ready to handle them.

Outdated infrastructure and slow bureaucratic processes are creating a bottleneck that prevents clean energy from being monetised, undermining its profitability and slowing its uptake. The complexities don’t stop there – further progress is also sorely needed in energy storage and data management, as well as in building optimised distribution networks.

Read more:
Thousands of corporate lobbyists are at the UN climate summit in Baku. But what exactly is ’lobbying’ and how does it work?

Renewable energy vs biodiversity?

There is a paradoxical element to the climate struggle. As we move towards decarbonisation, some renewable projects are having a highly detrimental impact on the environment, affecting precisely one of the other major global challenges: the recovery of biodiversity.

The Maestrazgo Cluster in Castellon, Spain, which envisages the installation of over 125 wind turbines in Natura 2000 protected areas, is a clear example of this conflict. Local resistance, often framed as a NIMBY (not in my backyard) cause, is not only an aesthetic or territorial issue – it also houses deeper concerns about the preservation of unique ecosystems that could be lost forever.

As industries grapple with being competitive, the stakes are even higher for countries themselves. China and India are heading the technological race, so falling behind could lead to economic disaster. This is the main reason why figures like ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods are encouraging Donald Trump to join the climate negotiations – not out of altruism, but as a strategic necessity.

The energy transition requires more than just investment in renewables; it also means designing a system that can combine efficient grids, streamlined processes, stable public policies, conservation efforts and the needs of local communities. Ignoring any of these elements will not only further delay the transition, it will also expose us to fresh environmental and social crises. There are no easy solutions to these complex problems.

Read more:
The climate and biodiversity crises are entwined, but we risk pitting one against the other

The price of saving the planet

We are still waiting for the magic “commitment number” – the figure that developed countries decide to allocate to developing nations to fund their climate transition.

Why is this so important? Because many of these countries lack the resources to implement renewable energy projects and adapt their infrastructures to reduce climate change. However, this funding is not just a matter of charity. It is also a way to ensure that all countries, regardless of their resources, can contribute to the fight against climate change.

In this sense, Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement represents a step towards a more orderly system by setting out a global framework for carbon credit trading, under UN oversight. It aims to prevent double counting and fraud, as well as to restore confidence in a market that fell to $723 million in 2023 after multiple scandals.

Under this system, countries will be able to trade carbon credits produced by projects anywhere in the world, generating revenue to fund their own transitions. It replaces the former Clean Development Mechanism established under the Kyoto Protocol and seeks to establish clear rules to deter fraud and double emission counting.

Read more:
Developing nations are least responsible for climate change but cop it worst. Will the COP29 climate talks tackle this injustice?

The entropy lesson

COP29 offers a clear lesson: tension and complexity are inherent to the climate challenge. Much like entropy itself, the energy transition is a constantly shifting system with opposing forces that need to be balanced.

Solving this puzzle demands more than just funds and technological breakthroughs. It requires bold leadership, international cooperation, and the ability to navigate a system where tensions – decarbonisation vs conservation, efficiency vs climate justice – have to be carefully managed and balanced.

Energy is the driving force behind this process, not only in the physical sense, but also in the political and social realms. The question is whether we can channel COP29’s chaos into a more sustainable and orderly future. Entropy may be a challenge, but it is also an opportunity, a reminder that there is room to build something extraordinary, even within disorder. Läs mer…

Environmental, social and governance investing, also known as impact or socially responsible investing, has become a popular concept. It’s based on awareness of the impact that firms have on the environment and on human wellbeing. Socially responsible investing recognises that these factors increasingly influence financial performance and thus investor returns.

Companies in the tobacco industry have some of the most serious impacts on wellbeing. Tobacco is a unique product in that it causes the premature death of about half of its users who don’t quit.

Organisations such as Tobacco Free Portfolios urge institutions not to invest in or provide financial services to tobacco companies. Their goal is a tobacco-free world. They argue that without financial and investor support, tobacco companies’ operations will become less sustainable.

As researchers with a strong background in economics, we assessed whether a financial case exists for investing in, or divesting from, tobacco stocks.

While a strong moral imperative to disinvest from tobacco stocks exists, many investors care more about the financial rationale for owning stocks.

In our study, we extend research done in 2018 and 2019 and analyse how tobacco companies’ stocks have performed compared to the overall market.

We also evaluate key business fundamentals that affect these stock prices, helping to explain their recent performance.

Our findings show that since 2016, tobacco shares have substantially underperformed the market, cigarette consumption has declined and real revenues have been stagnant or decreased.

The tobacco control measures introduced by dozens of countries around the world appear to have significantly undermined the industry.

They are expected to continue doing so.

We conclude from our findings that the outlook for the tobacco industry is uncertain, and the hostile external environment is unlikely to change.

Novel products are seen as the future. These include heated tobacco products (also known as heat-not-burn products), electronic cigarettes (also known as electronic nicotine delivery systems or ENDS), and oral nicotine pouches.

But it’s unclear whether their growth will be rapid enough to mitigate the decline in traditional tobacco sales. Novel products are being regulated too, and they cut into cigarette sales, especially as competition intensifies with new entrants outside the traditional tobacco industry.

Stock performance, volumes and profits

Using data sourced from news agency Bloomberg from 2008 to 2023, we evaluated historical sales volumes, real revenue, real gross profit per cigarette, stock performance and price-to-earnings trends for nine leading listed global tobacco companies.

From 2008 to 2016, we found that tobacco stocks typically outperformed the market.

Since 2016, however, all nine tobacco companies’ stocks analysed have performed worse than the market.

To put it differently, since 2016, investment portfolios that didn’t contain tobacco stocks would probably have gained more value than similar portfolios that included tobacco stocks.

Stock.

Volumes: Across the selected companies with a full series of data from 2008 to 2023, cigarette sales fell from 2.77 trillion sticks to 2.14 trillion sticks (a 22.8% decline).

Since 2008, all companies with available data have experienced a continuous decline in cigarette unit sales. The exception is Gudang Garam (an Indonesia-based company).

These trends are likely the result of the escalating tobacco control measures imposed on tobacco firms and are expected to continue.

Profits: From 2008 to 2016, most of the companies either maintained or increased their profit per cigarette sold.

However, from 2016 to 2023, four of the seven companies with available data experienced decreasing profits per cigarette sold.

BAT and Philip Morris were exceptions. This can likely be attributed to their growing sales of novel products (reflected in their gross profits).

Therefore, since 2016, it appears that tobacco companies are finding it more difficult to offset reduced cigarette unit sales through price increases.

From 2016 to 2023, revenue declined for six of the nine companies (adjusted for inflation and in dollar terms). The only exceptions were Vector, Gudang Garam and BAT.

BAT was able to increase its revenue by acquiring Reynolds American, a US-based company. It included the acquired company’s sales into its own financial reports.

Since cigarettes are responsible for the majority of the selected companies’ revenues, and since they have struggled to raise net-of-tax prices, it follows that declining cigarette sales volumes have negatively affected their revenues.

Novel product sales

For all the selected companies, novel products still contribute only a small share of their revenues. And the growth in revenues from these products has not been able to offset the decline in cigarette sales.

For example, Philip Morris experienced a decline of 128 billion units (18.2%) in combined cigarette and heated tobacco product sales from 2018 to 2023.

Regarding revenue expansion through novel products, three core challenges confront the tobacco companies we analysed.

First, the growth in sales of these products is likely to accelerate the decline in cigarette sales.

Second, these companies face intensified competition in the novel product market due to the emergence of new multinational competitors.

Third, these products are increasingly being regulated. Heated tobacco products are largely subject to similar strict regulation of cigarettes. Currently, 121 countries regulate electronic nicotine delivery systems in some way or another. Thirty-four countries have banned their sale altogether.

Lessons learnt

For decades, tobacco companies appealed to investors because tobacco stocks delivered robust capital gains and consistent dividends.

Despite a persistently hostile operating environment, tobacco companies experienced strong financial performance and their stock performance reflected this.

But this trend has shifted.

The poor stock performance of the selected companies since 2016 indicates diminished investor confidence, lower perceived value, weakening financial performance, and/or negative market sentiment towards tobacco companies.

The outlook for the tobacco industry is uncertain, and the hostile external environment is unlikely to change.

As a consequence, the financial rationale for including tobacco stocks in a portfolio is not readily apparent. Läs mer…

The outgoing Biden administration has authorized Ukraine to use U.S.- supplied longer-range missiles to strike deeper into Russia territory, according to reports citing White House officials.

The move comes amid concern in the West that Moscow – aided by the influx of thousands of North Korean fighters – might be preparing a major counteroffensive to regain lost territory in the Kursk region of Russia.

But how big a deal is the Biden decision? And could it change the trajectory of the conflict in Eastern Europe? The Conversation U.S. turned to Benjamin Jensen, a professor at American University and the Marine Corps University School of Advanced Warfighting, for answers.

What are the missiles the US authorized Ukraine to use?

The Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, are short-range ballistic missiles that can travel a lot farther than the weapons previously at Kyiv’s disposal.

We aren’t talking about new technology. ATACMS have been around as a concept since the late 1970s and 1980s and first came into production toward the end of the Reagan era, around 1986. By the mid-1990s they were in service, being first deployed by the U.S. in 1991 as part of Operation Desert Storm.

ATACMS have a range of approximately 190 miles. That distance is longer than British-supplied Storm Shadow and French-supplied Scalp cruise missiles, which have a range of 155 miles.

Not only do ATACMS go a lot farther, they also travel very fast – at Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, making them harder to intercept. Depending on where they are fired from, ATACMS can be difficult for radar systems to detect.

The other benefit, in this regard, is that ATACMS are not reliant on GPS positioning. Moscow has had success in jamming and blunting the effectiveness of other weapons that depend on GPS. But ATACMS can switch to an inertia guidance system, based on gyroscopes, to avoid GPS jamming tactics.

The newly authorized missiles also can carry a heavy payload of up to 500 pounds – enough to create a huge crater on impact.

ATACMS’ range, terminal velocity and size of warhead could potentially make a huge difference in the current conflict. It means that Ukraine would have the capability to conduct deep strikes on Russian territory.

In addition, U.S. authorization of their use by Ukraine in Russia would, in theory, also make it easier for other allies to transfer ATACMS to Kyiv. Nearby Poland and Romania have them, as do South Korea and Australia. Authorization by the Biden administration could give those governments the green light to supply the missiles to Ukraine, too.

Why was this longer-range weapon approved now?

Washington’s decision comes as Russian troop numbers are being swelled by North Korean fighters – the 10,000 North Koreans reportedly in Russia at present is likely just a first wave.

This has coincided with a build up of 50,000 Russian troops near Kursk – the key Russian territory taken by Ukraine earlier this year. Over the past few days, there have been what I would call “probing attacks” by Russia in the area in preparation for what could be a much larger assault to recapture the territory.

In advance of that counter-push, North Korean and Russian troops will need to marshal together before moving to the front – and they will be doing so in assembly areas deeper within Russia.

The military thinking is, if you can hit troops in those deep areas, you can seriously disrupt Moscow’s operational reach. And ATACMS are perfect for attacks on tactical assembly areas – their size, speed and range makes them harder to intercept.

Certainly if I were advising the Ukrainian military, I would be looking to use ATACMS to hit both assembly areas, ammunition sites and airfields.

What appears to be the thinking in Washington?

If I had to bet, I’d say there are still deep concerns of escalation but growing acknowledgment that we are entering a transition phase in the conflict.

President-elect Donald Trump has signaled that he wants to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. I assess that authorizing ATACMS now suggests the Biden administration is trying to give Ukraine a better hand during those negotiations.

Alternatively, the current White House may have looked at the growing pro-Moscow support of North Korean and concluded that allowing Ukraine to hit North Korean troops before they can be deployed to the front is the only way to offset the advantage this gives Russia. Besides troops, Pyongyang has sent more artillery shells to Russia than the European Union has to Ukraine.

These rationales are not mutually exclusive. It also appears that to the Biden administration, the imperatives outweigh any perceived risks of the U.S. getting drawn further into the conflict or of an escalatory response from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

What does this signal about the state of the war?

My reading of the conflict – and you are getting a sense of this through recent statements form Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy – is that Ukraine may only have until the end of the next campaign season, that is spring to summer 2025, to maintain its position. This is due to the ongoing cost that fighting is having on Ukraine. Kyiv is experiencing problems mobilizing sufficient troops – it has had to increasingly turn to conscription, something Ukraine had tried to avoid.

This isn’t to say that Ukraine has run completely out of steam. But it will struggle to take more Russian-controlled territory. Capturing territory in Kursk was a major achievement, but it was a one-off, high-risk gamble. And fighting in parts of Ukraine’s east occupied by Russia is proving difficult.

So is this about helping Ukraine keep control of Kursk?

The reporting around Biden’s authorization of ATACMS suggests that Washington is telling Ukraine that the missiles can’t be deployed everywhere, just in Kursk.

If Trump does have the ability to force people to talk, as he says he does, that will not stop the fighting. Fighting will continue until the parties agree to a cease-fire, and even after that, it could flare up at anytime.

For these reasons, I think you will see Russia throw everything at Kursk, militarily. And Ukraine will do everything it can to keep control of territory there – Kyiv knows that Kursk would be its biggest bargaining chip should it come to negotiations.

Did Trump’s victory play a role in Biden’s thinking?

I really think that the decision to authorize ATACMS was more about the reality on the ground in Ukraine than politics in the United States. That said, the president-elect’s stated push for negotiations as a way to settle the Ukraine-Russia conflict may well have escalated the decision. Läs mer…

Treasurer Jim Chalmers will announce on Wednesday a package of reforms to the retirement phase of the superannuation system, to make it easier to navigate and consumer friendly.

In a speech to the industry, Chalmers will point out the superannuation system is reaching “a pivotal moment”, with more than 2.5 million people expected to retire in the next decade.

Over the next four decades, superannuation drawdowns are estimated to increase from 2.4% of GDP to 5.6%.

The changes are aimed at helping people make their superannuation go further, as well as providing “peace of mind” for retirees.

The reforms fall into four areas.

The government will expand resources on the Moneysmart website, so retirees have easy access to independent and reliable information on their options. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) will lead a consumer education campaign for those approaching or in retirement.
Support for innovation in “quality retirement products” will provide more options to meet people’s needs. Updated regulations will begin from mid-2026. The changes will include allowing the funds to offer features such as money-back guarantees, and instalment payments instead of an upfront lump sum.
A new set of “best practice principles” will be introduced, with consultation on draft principles starting next year. These will guide the industry in designing modern, high quality products for retirement.
A new reporting framework will bring greater transparency and understanding of the system. A “retirement reporting framework” will begin from 2027, with data to be collected and published annually.

In his speech, released ahead of delivery, Chalmers says the superannuation system is a “great strength of the Australian economy and a great source of security for Australians, building wealth and wellbeing in retirement”. But it still needs more work, he says. Läs mer…

Can you see three trees from your home, school or workplace? Is there tree canopy cover shading at least 30% of the surrounding neighbourhood? Can you find a park within 300 metres of the building?

These three simple questions form the basis of the “3+30+300 rule” for greener, healthier, more heat tolerant cities. This simple measure, originally devised in Europe and now gaining traction around the world, sets the minimum standard required to experience the health benefits of nature in cities.

We put the rule to the test in eight global cities: Melbourne, Sydney, New York, Denver, Seattle, Buenos Aires, Amsterdam and Singapore.

Most buildings in these cities failed to meet the 3+30+300 rule. We found canopy cover in desperately short supply, even in some of the most affluent, iconic cities on the planet. Better canopy cover is urgently needed to cool our cities in the face of climate change.

Explore all three interactive maps, zoom in or out and search by address or place, hit the “i” button for more detail. Source: Cobra Groeninzicht

Shady trees are good for health and wellbeing

People are more likely to suffer from depression, anxiety, obesity and heatstroke in places with fewer trees, or limited access to parks. But how much “green infrastructure” do we need to stay healthy and happy?

Dutch urban forestry expert Professor Cecil Konijnendijk set the standard when he introduced the 3+30+300 rule in 2022. This benchmark is based on his wide-ranging review of the evidence linking urban nature to human health and wellbeing.

While the rule is still relatively new to Australia, it is gaining momentum internationally. Cities in Europe, the United States and Canada are using the measure, formally or informally, in their urban forestry strategies and plans. These cities include Haarlem in the Netherlands, Malmö in Sweden, Saanich in Canada, and Zürich in Switzerland.

Achieving 100% canopy cover is possible over streets, even in built-up areas.
Thami Croeser

Putting the rule to the test

We applied the 3+30+300 rule to a global inventory of city trees that collates open source data from local governments. We selected cities with the most detailed data for our research, aiming for at least one city on every continent. Unfortunately no suitable data could be identified for cities in Africa, mainland Asia or the Middle East.

Our final selection of eight cities features several regarded as leaders in urban forestry and green space development. The City of Melbourne is renowned for its ambitious Urban Forest Strategy. New York is home to successful projects such as MillionTreesNYC and The Highline. Singapore is known for lush tropical greenery including standout sites such as Gardens by the Bay and Bishan-Ang Mo Kio Park.

Analysis of Melbourne and Sydney was restricted to central areas only, based on limitations in the data, while the other six analyses covered whole cities.

Most buildings across the eight cities met the three trees requirement but fell short on canopy cover. In contrast, three in four (75%) buildings passed the 30% canopy benchmark in Singapore and almost one in two (45%) passed in Seattle.

Just 3% of buildings in Melbourne had adequate neighbourhood canopy cover, despite 44% having views of at least three trees.

Central Sydney fared better, although only 17% of city buildings were shaded enough despite 84% having views of at least three trees.

Access to parks was also patchy. Cities such as Singapore and Amsterdam scored well on parks, while Buenos Aires and New York City scored poorly.

Since completing this study, we partnered with Dutch geospatial firm, Cobra Groeninzicht to map ten extra cities in Europe, the US and Canada. We found similar results in these cities.

Singapore was the only city to receive a pass mark on all three components of the 3+30+300 rule.
Croeser et al., 2024.

Too small and spaced out

We were surprised to discover so many buildings around the world had views to at least three trees but still had inadequate neighbourhood canopy cover. This seemed contradictory – are there enough trees, or not?

The issue comes up in other studies too. For example, the city of Nice in France recently revealed 92% of residents have views to three trees, but only 45% had adequate neighbourhood canopy.

When we looked into this issue, we found those three trees, visible as they may be, are often too small to create decent shade.

Planting density was an issue too. When a city did have large trees, they tended to be very spaced out.

Meeting the 3+30+300 rule therefore requires bigger, healthier longer-lived trees, planted closer together.

Explore all three interactive maps, zoom in or out and search by address or place, hit the “i” button for more detail. Source: Cobra Groeninzicht

City living is tough for trees

Many of our roads and footpaths sit on a base of compacted crushed rock, topped by impermeable asphalt or paving. This means very little water reaches tree roots, and there isn’t much space for the roots to grow. As a result, street trees grow slowly, die young, and are more susceptible to pests, disease and heat stress.

Above ground, trees face further challenges. Power companies have legal powers to demand sometimes excessive amounts of pruning. Residents and developers frequently request tree removals, often successfully.

This trifecta of high removal rates, heavy pruning and tough growing conditions mean large, healthy canopy trees are rare.

Planting new trees is surprisingly difficult too. Engineering standards often act against tree planting by requiring large clearances from driveways, underground pipes, or even parking spaces.

Instead of managing potential conflicts, trees are often simply deleted from streetscape plans. Sparse planting is the result.

Conservative powerline clearance rules requiring intense pruning of street trees are being challenged by urban forestry experts.
Thami Croeser

Finding solutions to nurture tree canopy

Fortunately, there are solutions to all of these issues.

Legal reforms to put trees on equal footing with other infrastructure would be a great place to start. Trees do come with risks as well as benefits, but we need to manage those risks rather than settling for hot, desolate streets.

Better planting standards will be important too. Technology already exists to create larger soil volumes under footpaths and roads. Clever asphalt-like materials (often called “permeable paving”) allow rain to infiltrate soils. These approaches cost more, but they work very well. Not only do they potentially double tree growth rates trees, but they also help reduce flood risks and minimise issues such as roots blocking drains or causing bumpy footpaths.

Our study is a clear call to action for cities to expand, maintain and protect their urban forests and parks to prepare for climate change. With another record-breaking summer predicted, hot on the heels of the world’s hottest year, growing tree canopy has never been more urgent. We must push forward with these reforms and ensure our urban populations have all the green infrastructure they need to protect them into the future.

Trees planted in specialised soil volume systems grow much faster, as do trees with proper access to water. In this trial, the tree on the right was planted in a soil vault, while the tree on the left (planted at the same time) was not.
CityGreen Läs mer…

Studies of intimate partner violence mostly portray men as abusers and women as victims. Little academic attention is paid to men who are abused by their female partners. Even less effort is made to understand how men’s experiences of intimate partner violence affect the way they see their masculinity, and how they respond to female abuse.

Gender-based violence is a serious problem in South Africa, where an estimated 25% to 40% of women face sexual or physical violence from a partner. A lot of this violence against women is linked to toxic masculinity – harmful ideas about what it means to be a “real man”, including being tough, aggressive or in control.

While it is crucial to challenge toxic masculinity in order to stop violence, it’s also important to consider that men can be victims of gender-based violence too. By understanding how men deal with their own experiences of violence – and what it means for how they see themselves as men – South Africans can better understand gender issues and help create healthier ideas of masculinity.

Read more:
’Toxic masculinity’: what does it mean, where did it come from – and is the term useful or harmful?

We are sociologists who research gender and masculinity. As part of a PhD thesis, one of us (Rowlands) sat down with 25 African men living in Johannesburg to conduct in-depth interviews taking a qualitative approach, which is common in this kind of study.

The goal was to find out how these men who are abused by their female partners might redefine themselves as men because of it. The paper this article is based on draws from that research to better understand why some of these men don’t fight back when abused and how that shapes their masculinity.

The men in the study have had to deal with things like being controlled, intimidated, or even hit by their partners. We found that, in response, some of the men focused on self-control, staying strong emotionally, and protecting their partners.

They said that they chose to control their reactions, associating true manliness with respect and non-violence. They used this ideal to maintain their sense of being honourable. We argue that, when victimised, some men reshape their masculinity, creating a healthier sense of what being a man means.

Our study

The 25 men interviewed for the study came from South Africa, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Mozambique, Malawi, Eswatini and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The interviews, which took place over five months, were held at a clinic in Hillbrow, Johannesburg, where these men sought medical help after experiencing violence. Aged between 23 and 58, they came from low socioeconomic backgrounds, facing financial struggles that often added to their challenges.

After getting medical help, they were asked if they would like to take part in the research. Those who agreed were given written assurance that their information would be kept private and their identities anonymous.

They were asked about what being a man meant to them in a patriarchal society where men are often expected to be tough and in control. They were also asked to share how they felt about themselves as men after going through abuse from their partners.

Their stories revealed issues that included physical violence and emotional manipulation by their partners, showing that women can also be violent in relationships. Despite these experiences, the men shared thoughtful reflections about what had happened to them, revealing the complicated power struggles in their relationships and their efforts to understand their identities.

The study showed that even though they identified as “traditional” patriarchal men who are supposed to be tough and in control of their partners, these men chose to respond with non-violence and emotional control instead of fighting back. One man, for example, believed that staying calm was a stronger and more honourable way to express his masculinity:

I consider myself a better man because I did not beat or slap her. I know how to control myself, which makes me a better man.

This challenges the idea that being masculine means to be naturally aggressive and violent. Another participant believed that showing emotional strength was what really made a man honourable:

I still see myself as a man, because … I did not allow it to weigh me down …

Real men, he told us, have always endured things. “That is why I endure everything.” By sharing his story of getting through tough times by adapting emotionally, he described a type of masculinity that values inner strength, mental toughness and the ability to overcome. This way of thinking helped him stay calm when he was hurt and to recover more quickly.

Many of the men in the study saw themselves as brave because they could take hits from their partners while still being their protectors. One said:

I know how angry I get, and women are fragile. One punch could seriously hurt her, so I just calm myself down. They’ve been talking about the 16 Days of Activism … I don’t want to become a perpetrator.

This again challenges the stereotype that men are always aggressive. Instead, these men show that they can change how they think about masculinity by choosing to respond differently to abuse.

The participants also understood that the mood of anger about gender-based violence in South Africa affected their response and shaped their actions. They tried to maintain their roles as protectors of their partners instead of perpetrators of violence against them.

What makes a ‘real man’

By practising self-control, these men believe that a “real man” is not violent, can manage his emotions, and is strong enough to deal with challenges to his dignity. These new understandings of masculinity help them to manage their relationships and encourage a view of manhood that supports non-violence and encourages emotional strength.

The findings show that masculinity is not set in stone; it changes based on the life experiences of boys and men and the situations they face. Indeed, this implies that boys and men are not necessarily born with a specific idea of what it means to be a man; rather, they learn and shape their masculinity over time and across different contexts.

Masculinity can be redefined based on a boy’s and man’s journey, what society expects, and how they see themselves. This flexibility allows boys and men to create their own ideas of masculinity, breaking away from traditional stereotypes and understanding their identities in more meaningful ways.

Read more:
Sexual violence in South Africa: where are the male victims?

We believe that new thinking is needed to fight gender-based violence and toxic masculinity in South Africa. A range of players from social media and religious groups to schools need to promote healthier conceptions of masculinity – one that values non-violence and makes space for alternative masculinities. Läs mer…

Political funding in Australia has long been shrouded in secrecy. It is also dominated by large donations and unrestrained spending, courtesy of laissez-faire federal political finance laws.

The Albanese government has proposed the Electoral Legislation Amendment (Electoral Reform) Bill. According to the government, the bill “seek(s) to remove the influence of big money in politics”. The Teal MPs and Clive Palmer have, however, denounced it as “a major party stich-up”.

Where does the truth lie?

The bill will reduce the influence of big money in politics, but it does not go far enough in curbing large donations and excessive spending. Its scorecard on promoting fair elections is mixed: it will make elections fairer in key respects, but also unduly favour the major parties, political parties with wealthy candidates, and those with investment income.

A wholesale reform

The bill proposes significant changes to the two pillars of current federal laws (disclosure and public funding), while adding another two (caps on gifts and caps on electoral expenditure). This is the most ambitious reform of federal political finance laws attempted since the current regime was established four decades ago.

Substantial “hidden money” has resulted from the weaknesses of current laws. These include a high disclosure threshold, a lack of timeliness, and weak penalties.

The bill provides a comprehensive response to these weaknesses by:
• reducing the disclosure threshold to $1,000• requiring expedited disclosure
• providing penalties based on the amounts not disclosed.

Risk of corruption is reduced, but there are significant loopholes

A small minority of large donors dominate the funding of federal political parties and candidates.

Leading the pack are cashed-up individuals such as Richard Pratt, Clive Palmer and Rob Keldoulis (the main funder of Climate 200).

Specific industries (including the mining and resource sector, the property sector, and the gambling sector), regularly make substantial donations and mainly to the major parties – money follows power.

All this illustrates what the High Court has described as “clientelism” corruption. This means corruption that

arises from an office-holder’s dependence on the financial support of a wealthy patron to a degree that is apt to compromise the expectation, fundamental to representative democracy, that public power will be exercised in the public interest.

The bill tackles such corruption through all four pillars. Robust disclosure will aid through “sunlight as disinfectant”. A ceiling on spending through expenditure caps will reduce the pressure to fundraise. An increase in public funding for campaigns has a similar effect.

Gift caps are the principal way in which the bill seeks to prevent large donations. The million-dollar donations made by Pratt, Keldoulis and mining companies would be illegal under these caps, which limit donations to each political party to $20,000 a year.

However, these caps also have major loopholes. Exclusions from the caps allow for disguised donations: membership and affiliation fees to associated entities are not caught by the caps. While there is a principled basis for exempting membership and affiliation fees to political parties (including trade union affiliation fees), the bill allows for inflation of these fees by leaving the exemptions uncapped (unlike NSW laws).

Most significantly, the caps do not apply to donations made by candidates to the party that endorsed them. They would not, for example, prevent Clive Palmer from continuing to donate millions to the United Australia Party. They would also not prohibit donations such as the $1.75 million Malcolm Turnbull gave to the Liberal Party in 2016–17.

The proposed law would not stop Clive Palmer, for example, from donating large sums of money to the United Australia Party.
Joel Carrett/AAP

The ‘arms race’ is contained but big spending will continue

The past two decades have seen a steady rise in federal election spending. This has been driven by major party spending and big spending contests such as Kooyong (where both Monique Ryan and Josh Frydenberg spent around $2 million each).

The problem here is twofold: high spending increases fundraising pressure and the risk of corruption associated with large donations; and high spending itself undermines fairness of elections. The High Court has referred to “war-chest” corruption where “the power of money may also pose a threat to the electoral process itself”.

The bill’s federal cap of $90 million will reduce levels of spending (the Coalition, United Australia and Labor each spent more than $100 million in the last election) and prevent further increases.

Nevertheless, the cap is set too high. Analysis by the Centre for Public Integrity shows the federal cap is disproportionately high compared to the state caps. For example, it will allow more than double a maximum spend per elector compared to the New South Wales cap on spending.

The $11.25 million cap on third-party spending shares the same weakness. While this high level was presumably adopted to lessen the prospect of a successful constitutional challenge to the cap (as occurred with the NSW cap), the scale has been tilted too far.

As it stands, the third-party cap will not prevent campaigns such as the $22 million advertising campaign by mining companies against the Rudd government’s resource super-profits tax, which contributed to the ousting of Kevin Rudd as prime minister.

Caps promote fairness but some still get a free pass

Gift caps promote fair elections by reducing the need for large donations in order for candidates to run a meaningful campaign. They also level the playing field by reducing the spending advantage of the better-resourced parties and candidates.

In both cases, candidates such as the Teals, who rely on large donations and high spending, will clearly be constrained. But it is the major parties that will be most affected (disadvantaged), as they are the main beneficiaries of the laissez-faire status quo (together with Palmer’s United Australia Party).

On the negative side, the loophole with candidate donations will favour parties with wealthy candidates. Parties will also be able to register their investment vehicles as “nominated entities” and receive income outside of the gift caps, a boon for the major parties and probably Palmer’s UAP.

Major parties further benefit from the narrow scope of Division and Senate caps which leave out considerable party spending directed at these contests. Broadening their scope along the lines of [Canadian] and UK spending limits will help address the Teals’ concern that spending caps allow the major parties to game the caps by shifting spending from safe and unwinnable seats to marginal ones.

Public funding can be fairer

The bill seeks to increase public funding based on first preference votes (election funding) and the number of seats (administrative assistance funding). This is a measure for fairness: together with gift caps, it means funding is increasingly determined by the level of popular support rather than the ability to attract large donations.

The major parties will receive substantial increases in public funding due to their share of votes and seats. But this is not a credible argument that such funding is “biased”.

However, as funding criteria are based on the outcomes of the past election, public funding does favour incumbents. This could can be offset by a start-up fund for new parties and candidates (such as the New South Wales’ New Parties Fund).

The government should be congratulated for grasping the nettle of reform in an area where disagreement and self interest run deep. It should now follow through with a proper parliamentary process – including a parliamentary inquiry with adequate time for scrutiny. Otherwise, it may miss the opportunity for enduring change. Läs mer…

The first 1,000 days of a child’s life – pregnancy and the months leading to their second birthday – are a critical time. Expectant mothers need good antenatal care. The better their physical and mental health, the greater the likelihood of giving birth to a healthy baby and being able to nurture that baby through the first two years of life.

There’s a large global body of evidence to show that what happens during this period has lifelong effects on a person’s health, growth and well-being.

Less attention has been paid to the “next 1,000 days”, when children are between the ages of 2 and 5. But what public health and child development experts do know is that this, too, is a crucial time. Within this period, there are opportunities to build on investments made in the first 1,000 days, as well as to help put children who did not get the input they needed earlier in life back on track, setting them up for school and a healthy childhood and adolescence.

The Lancet, one of the world’s leading medical journals, has just launched a series of papers about these “next 1,000 days”, building on previous series in 2007, 2011 and 2016 on early childhood development. I am a public health specialist with expertise in early childhood development who led the series, working with experts from all over the world to highlight the latest scholarly evidence about this crucial window of time in children’s lives. We’ve focused particularly on low- and middle-income countries.

We wanted to highlight the latest available evidence on the next 1,000 days – why it is important, what influences development in this age group, what programmes are being implemented and are working, where children are falling behind, and the cost of not investing.

Read more:
Child care centres in South Africa need more support: principals tell of pandemic impact

In the next 1,000 days, young children’s development is shaped by a range of influences. These include their physical health, developmental delays and disabilities, nutrition, parenting, exposure to violence, the mental health of their caregivers, father involvement, early childhood care and education environment, and exposure to pollution and climate change. The COVID-19 pandemic amplified many of the risks associated with these influences, making it more urgent than ever to reduce those risks.

Why do the next 1,000 days matter?

Between the ages of 2 and 5, children advance rapidly in a range of areas.
PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

Between the ages of 2 and 5, children advance rapidly in a range of areas: cognitive development and self-regulation, as well as social, emotional, motor, language and numeracy skills. Of course, children develop these skills at different rates and in different ways. Promoting development in these areas sets young children on a path for health, development and education.

These paths are shaped by the quality of care in five areas: health, nutrition, responsive caregiving, safety and security, and early learning. Essentially, this nurturing care is what children need to thrive. The graphic below shows how these dimensions relate to developmental outcomes that matter in this age group, as well as important policies and programmes to guide their growth.

The Conversation Africa, CC BY-NC-ND

Lower- and middle-income countries: zooming in

A previous Lancet series about early childhood development reported that an estimated 250 million children under the age of 5 in lower- and middle-income countries were at risk of not reaching their developmental potential.

More recent data in the new series indicates that, in these countries, only 62 million children aged 3 and 4 (25%) currently receive the care they need to thrive. This leaves close to 182 million children exposed to risks that jeopardise their healthy development.

Access to adequate care varied systematically across regions. In sub-Saharan Africa the figure stood at just 7.9%. For children in lower- and middle-income countries in Europe and central Asia, it was 68%.

Read more:
Economies grow when early childhood development is a priority

We also found that fewer than one in three children in low- and middle-income countries have access to developmental stimulation or are protected from physical punishment. Only 39% have access to early childhood care and education programmes. Children who have received early learning support and responsive care are about two years ahead in their development compared with their peers who do not.

Overall it is clear that young children in low- and middle-income countries are not adequately reached by programmes that promote their development between the ages of 2 and 5. One reason, we’ve found, is that early childhood development programmes designed for this age range – as detailed in academic journal publications between 1990 and 2020 – are mostly delivered in high-income western countries; 44% of the programmes are in the United States.

Only 5% of published programmes have been implemented in low-income or lower-middle-income countries. These findings highlight the mismatch between the global regions where such programmes are most needed and the areas where they are in place.

This publication bias in favour of high-income western countries has been criticised elsewhere and, although there are signs of shifts in the right direction, much must be done to address the fact that most of the world’s child population is under-represented in research.

Sectors must work together

As part of the Lancet series we identified recommendations that cut across different sectors like health, early learning, child protection and social welfare.

Firstly, these sectors need to work together, rather than in silos.

Secondly, programmes (ideally through partnerships across sectors) that focus on helping these children to thrive should not only involve risk mitigation, such as preventing violence. “Protective” factors which buffer children from these risks, like parental mental wellbeing, are also critical.

Thirdly, the programmes must be of high quality, and should be contextually relevant.

Lastly, equity and inclusion are crucial considerations. The most vulnerable children need to be reached – with programmes of equal quality.

A sensible investment

There is growing evidence that there are both short- and long-term benefits of programmes aimed at children in the “next 1,000 days”. These include high-quality early childhood care and education programmes, parental educational programmes, cash transfers, and nutrition interventions. These can work together to yield higher benefits.

Access to quality care and education is key.
monkeybusinessimages/Getty Images

The costs of providing early childhood education and care vary substantially across countries. But, relative to national incomes, these costs are typically low. In low- and middle-income countries, the estimated cost of one year of early childhood care and education, provided to all children in the next 1,000 days, would be less than 1% of GDP. The potential benefits are on average 8-19 times larger than the cost of actually implementing these programmes across such countries. Läs mer…