‘Will you buy fewer plastic bottles?’ A simple question can change our behaviour

The bottled water market has seen explosive growth – up 73% over the last decade – making it one of the fastest-growing industries globally. However, this growth comes at a significant environmental cost. Plastic waste, greenhouse gas emissions from production and distribution, and the overexploitation of water resources all contribute to an escalating ecological crisis. Reducing reliance on bottled water is, therefore, an urgent challenge.

Public awareness of this issue has grown. A 2020 study by Futerra and OnePulse found that 80% of respondents were willing to change their habits to combat climate change, and 50% specifically considered cutting back on plastic use. Despite this, little attention has been given to communication strategies designed to reduce bottled water consumption.

The power of self-prophecies

Our research suggests that asking people questions about their future behaviour – a psychological effect known as a self-prophecy – may inspire meaningful change. In a study involving 269 participants in the United States, researchers investigated whether this tactic could reduce bottled water purchases.

Self-prophecies work by prompting individuals to predict their future actions (e.g., “Will you recycle your packaging?”). This triggers cognitive dissonance: the discomfort of recognising a gap between one’s values and behaviours. People often resolve this tension by adjusting their actions to align with their beliefs.

Guilt as a motivator

Our study uncovers the emotional mechanism that links self-prophecy prompts to pro-environmental actions, with anticipated guilt serving as the key driver. American social psychologist Leon Festinger, in his seminal work A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance, describes dissonance as a state of psychological discomfort that spurs behavioural change. While Festinger does not explicitly identify the nature of this discomfort, later theorists highlighted guilt as one of the emotions that dissonance can trigger under specific circumstances.

Building on this idea, we hypothesised that people anticipate guilt when they foresee themselves failing to engage in environmentally responsible actions, particularly when such behaviours align with their normative beliefs – social or cultural expectations of what constitutes appropriate behaviour. This anticipated guilt, we argue, motivates individuals to adopt eco-friendly practices to avoid experiencing the negative emotion.

To test this theory, we conducted an experiment measuring guilt in participants exposed to an advertisement featuring a prediction question designed to discourage bottled water purchases. Those who viewed the ad experienced higher levels of anticipated guilt compared to participants in a control group who saw an ad without the prediction element. Crucially, this guilt significantly reduced their intention to buy bottled water, demonstrating how emotional anticipation can influence behaviour.

Varying effects across individuals

We investigated two key factors that influence the effectiveness of self-prophecy techniques: normative beliefs and the motivations that drive people to act.

Research has long established the power of normative beliefs in shaping behaviour. People who strongly adhere to their beliefs are not only more likely to predict that they will act in accordance with them but also more likely to follow through. Our study delved into how different types of norms – descriptive (what most people do), injunctive (what is socially expected), and personal (internal moral standards) – affect intentions.

Our findings reveal that these three types of norms significantly influence feelings of anticipated guilt. Participants generally believed that reducing plastic bottle consumption was common, socially expected and aligned with their personal convictions. The stronger these norms, the more intense the anticipated guilt when participants considered non-compliance. However, the act of posing a prediction question did not amplify the salience of these norms during decision-making. This suggests that such questions do not inherently guide participants toward behaviour aligned with their normative beliefs.

We also examined approach motivation, the drive to seek positive experiences or rewards, measured through behavioral approach system (BAS) scores. Individuals with high scores are typically goal-oriented, pursuing both tangible rewards (e.g., acquiring objects) and abstract achievements (e.g., altruism). This heightened drive helps them actively close the gap between their personal objectives and actions.

When guilt and action don’t align

Surprisingly, our study found that individuals with lower sensitivity to rewards and less drive to seek positive experiences felt greater guilt than their more motivated counterparts. Why? These individuals, while less motivated to act, became acutely aware of the gap between their behaviours and personal norms when prompted by the prediction question. This awareness, despite their inertia, triggered a stronger sense of guilt, which in turn increased their intention to reduce plastic bottle use.

On the other hand, those with higher BAS scores seemed naturally adept at aligning their actions with their norms, minimising cognitive dissonance. Their proactive approach to achieving personal goals reduced the likelihood of experiencing guilt, as they had already taken steps to bridge the gap between their intentions and behaviours.

Using self-prophecies in environmental campaigns

Our study offers promising insights for environmental awareness efforts, suggesting that prediction-based questions can effectively encourage eco-friendly behaviours. This approach, easily adaptable by government agencies and NGOs, has the potential to make sustainability messaging more impactful.

Interestingly, the study did not find a connection between normative beliefs – what people perceive as socially accepted behaviours – and the success of self-prophecy techniques. Had such a link been observed, individuals with stronger normative beliefs might have adjusted their behaviours more significantly in line with societal norms. However, existing research consistently highlights the pivotal role of personal norms – deeply held beliefs about right and wrong – in shaping intentions and ecological actions.

We therefore recommend designing campaigns that emphasise personal responsibility and the consequences of inaction. For example, messages that underscore the urgency of environmental issues and the importance of individual contributions can amplify the effectiveness of self-prophecy interventions.

While the study primarily examined behavioural intentions rather than actual behaviours, previous research supports the long-term impact of self-prediction techniques on real-world actions. For instance, interventions have been shown to improve recycling rates over four weeks and boost gym attendance for up to six months. These findings underscore the power of a simple question to engage emotional drivers and inspire lasting sustainable practices. Läs mer…

The UK is no longer offering COVID vaccines to pregnant women – here’s why that might be a bad idea

Until now, COVID vaccines have been available to pregnant women as part of the twice-yearly booster programme, but this offer is being withdrawn.

The UK’s vaccine body, the Joint Committee for Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), has recommended that from spring 2025, pregnant women will no longer be eligible for free COVID vaccines. This is a concern for several reasons.

First, there is the direct vaccine benefit of reducing the chance of COVID infection and the consequences of infection in pregnancy. Pregnant women are at higher risk of severe COVID infection than women who are not pregnant, which can be significantly reduced by vaccination.

Severe COVID infection in pregnancy also carries risks for the unborn baby, including miscarriage and stillbirth. Although the risk with the currently circulating virus variants is lower, the risk remains to both mother and baby from COVID. The good news is that vaccination not only protects the mother should she be infected, but also reduces the risk of both very preterm birth and stillbirth for her baby.

Second, there is the indirect benefit of vaccination in pregnancy in protecting newborns in those vital early months. Infants do not have fully developed immune systems, and a COVID infection is their first time meeting the virus. As such, they are very vulnerable to COVID infections, as they are to other respiratory infections. (Thankfully, there are safe and effective vaccines for flu, whooping cough and respiratory syncytial virus RSV.)

COVID vaccines for children under the age of four (from the age of six months), while approved for use in the UK, are not, nor have been, made available – in contrast to countries such as the US.

A recent study, co-authored by one of us (Christina Pagel), looked at all hospitalisations in England of children with a COVID diagnosis or positive test between August 2020 and 2023. Admissions where COVID did not contribute to the reason for being in hospital (such as swallowing a toy or breaking a limb) were excluded.

Overall, infants accounted for 43% of all admissions in children under 18 (19,700 out of 45,900), rising to 64% of admissions in the most recent era as older children saw some benefit of “acquired immunity” (protection from having had a previous infection).

Of these admitted infants, only 10% had any underlying conditions that would normally be considered risk factors for severe COVID infection. While most infants were in hospital for only a short time – about two days – a significant minority required intensive care. For instance, between August 2022-23, about 5% needed intensive care and eight babies died.

A new study, which has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal, further categorised risks to different age groups for COVID hospital admissions in England. It showed that the risk for A&E attendance, hospital admission and severe hospital admission (requiring oxygen ventilation and hospitalisation for more than two days) was highest in babies under six months old – higher even than for people over 90 years old.

While much lower than for the youngest babies, the risk for babies aged six months to one year was also higher than most other age groups – comparable with adults in their 70s or 80s.

The good news is that babies can be protected from COVID in the first six months of life, if the mother has been recently vaccinated. This is because if the mother is vaccinated, she can pass on protective antibodies to the developing baby during pregnancy. These antibodies will wane over time, but if the mother is then able to breastfeed she can pass on antibodies that are found in breast milk.

These antibodies can make a massive difference. Data from the US showed that the overwhelming majority of infants hospitalised with COVID (95%) and all those who died from COVID were from unvaccinated mothers. It is for these reasons that vaccination against COVID during pregnancy has been recommended around the world, including in Ireland, the US and, until now, the UK.

Mothers can pass on antibodies to their babies in breast milk.
fStop Images/Alamy Stock Photo

JCVI’s workings not clear

It’s not clear how JCVI assessed the cost-effectiveness that has led to the change in recommendation to withdraw the COVID vaccine in pregnancy.

The cost-effectiveness model JCVI has been using for COVID vaccine decisions has only just been published, and is still in preprint form. JCVI’s criteria focus on preventing deaths, and the preprint only considered deaths in people 15 years and older, while the hospitalisation data used grouped children aged nought to four years. This age grouping masks the much higher vulnerability of very young babies that other papers have shown.

A further concern about the JCVI analysis is that it seems to prioritise preventing deaths above all other considerations. For its decision on pregnancy eligibility, the committee used unpublished data from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre, which shows that there were no deaths in pregnancy in the last 18 months. Although this is excellent news, this data does not appear to include consideration of miscarriage, stillbirth and health risks to the baby.

While, of course, death matters a lot, and pregnant mothers and babies very rarely die from COVID, hospitalisation and severe hospitalisation are nonetheless also important outcomes to avoid.

COVID remains at significant levels throughout the year. We would urge the JCVI to look at the wider data sets published on infant health as well as mortality and either revise its criteria on vaccination in pregnancy, or provide a much more detailed and transparent explanation for why it has been discontinued. Läs mer…

Sustainable peace in Sudan: how international investment and solidarity can help end a ‘forgotten war’

In recent years, armed conflicts have frequently made global headlines, but media coverage has largely focused on just a few highly publicised wars. These conflicts represent only the tip of the iceberg: more than 50 countries are currently suffering from shocking levels of armed violence, many of which receive little to no public attention. These include the ongoing violence in Sudan, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Myanmar, the Central African Republic and Yemen.

Many of these “forgotten wars” occur in countries with high poverty, significant interethnic inequalities and fragile states. Often, they are not sites of great power rivalry – one of the reasons they are largely “forgotten” by both the media and policymakers worldwide. Academia has not overlooked them, however: hundreds of recent studies examine policies that can make a real difference in such conflicts. As discussed in my new book, The Peace Formula: Voice, Work and Warranties, three factors have been found to matter most for sustainable peace.

Political representation, economic opportunity and security guarantees

First, a society must guarantee civil liberties and political representation for all regardless of ethnicity, gender, religion or sexual orientation. Excluded or discriminated-against groups are far more likely to form insurgent movements to challenge the state, whereas inclusive, power-sharing institutions are strongly associated with long-term peace and stability.

Second, the presence of a productive economy and a well-educated, healthy population with the means to earn a decent living are key. When opportunities are scarce and large segments of society are impoverished and desperate, they become easier prey for warlords or authoritarian leaders seeking to recruit fighters. Consequently, policies that strengthen education, healthcare and labour market access have a significant impact in promoting peace.

Third, security guarantees and robust state capacity are essential for implementing effective public policies and reducing the risk of coups or organised crime taking advantage of power vacuums. When citizens feel secure, state legitimacy is strengthened, making political and economic progress possible.

The war in Sudan

But even if one recognises these factors, the question remains: how can the international community enact positive change? Imposing regime change from outside typically backfires. However, when a reform window opens within a country and a well-intentioned government works toward positive change, it creates an opportunity for the international community to help. Substantial financial investment following the Marshall Plan model, along with support for emerging state capacities, can have a significant impact. UN peacekeeping forces have been shown to greatly enhance security, particularly for civilians.

These elements can make a crucial difference on the ground. Take the ongoing war in Sudan: after Omar al-Bashir’s autocratic regime ended in 2019, a window of opportunity for positive change briefly opened, leading to the initiation of a series of reforms under new prime minister Abdallah Hamdok. These included the obtainment of IMF financing, macroeconomic reforms and the removal of fuel subsidies. While the reforms aimed for fiscal stabilisation, they did not bring immediate relief to the economic hardship suffered by wide parts of the population, making it challenging to maintain lasting large-scale support for the government and its reforms. Also, the government never achieved full control over security and remained at the mercy of the military.

This period of transition to civilian rule was cut short in the fall of 2021, when a series of coups ushered in a new era of tension and violence. The situation deteriorated further in April 2023, when full-scale war broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, the army’s former paramilitary allies. This power struggle has reportedly killed tens of thousands of people, and there are now more than 14 million displaced people in Sudan or across its borders. The war continues with devastating intensity, and in recent days, reports have emerged of mass killings and sexual violence in villages in Al Jazirah state in eastern Sudan.

Protecting members of all ethnic groups

Stopping the fighting and finding a political solution is the top priority. Once an armistice is reached, a long-term roadmap for sustainable peace will be essential to ensure that the current humanitarian catastrophe never happens again. Ensuring a democratic voice for everyone is vital in any country, but it is especially critical in the context of Sudan, which has severe ethnic divisions and a history of ethnically motivated violence, with, among others, the Masalit people and other non-Arab communities in the Darfur region repeatedly targeted. The state has a duty to protect the lives and rights of all its inhabitants, and it is crucial to put everything possible in place to prevent ethnic cleansing.

An economy that generates sufficient jobs is important everywhere, but particularly in Sudan, where poverty remains high and not everyone benefits equally from natural resource windfalls. While the extraction of fossil fuels poses a significant risk of conflict and rent-seeking – both generally and in oil-rich Sudan – a robust economy that extends beyond the sector is crucial, as it offers important employment opportunities without the same negative side effects as fossil fuel extraction.

Once a future civilian government is established, the international community can provide large-scale financial help. An International Growth Centre report highlights great opportunities for domestically producing a wide range of imported goods, including food and textiles, as well as boosting exports.

In terms of exports, Sudan’s geographical position close to Egypt, Ethiopia and the Gulf States is a major asset. The diversification of exports, such as a range of agricultural commodities and livestock, holds significant potential, and value-added activities could be stepped up. Sudan is the world’s largest producer of gum arabic but only gets a dismal share of the value chain. With more processing activities, a bigger share of this market could be secured.

There must also be strong security guarantees that enable a civilian government to implement reforms and build state capacity without the threat of military coups. Not only could UN peacekeepers protect a civilian government from military takeovers, but they would also help safeguard all civilians, regardless of their ethnicity. Of course, a key challenge for the UN is to obtain large enough contingents of peacekeeping troops from member states. This highlights the paramount importance of international solidarity.

Foundations for peace

If there is a roadmap to pacifying forgotten wars, why hasn’t it been followed more often? One issue is that many politicians prioritise short-term objectives. Striking an unsustainable deal with a despot or winning the favour of a significant yet unsavoury regime may seem appealing to leaders, especially before an election campaign. It has been argued that al-Bashir, who ruled Sudan for decades, had only been able to cling to power due to foreign support.

In contrast, investing substantial resources to lay the groundwork for long-term peace in a country far from the spotlight may be seen as less politically advantageous. The full benefits of, for example, building schools or improving the health system accrue only after some time. While some leaders may genuinely care about doing good, many are more focused on doing well. To change this dynamic, scrutiny from local and global civil society, as well as public opinion, is essential to realign incentives for our leaders, shifting their focus from short-term gains to sustainable foundations for peace. Independent, high-quality media and engaged citizens can serve as catalysts for such positive change. Läs mer…

Life in the world’s deepest seas: The challenge of finding 1,000 new marine species by 2030

Oceans cover 71% of the Earth’s surface, but despite their immense size and impact on the planet, we know very little about them. While many of us might associate the sea with relaxing holidays on tropical beaches, the ocean is nothing but cold, dark and monotonous for most of the creatures that inhabit it.

The average depth of the ocean is 3.5km (the equivalent of crossing San Francisco’s Golden Gate bridge twice). Sunlight only penetrates up to 200 metres in crystal clear waters, and much less in murkier conditions. Beyond this depth, the world as terrestrial creatures know it ceases to exist, and life develops in total darkness. Welcome to the deep sea, the world’s largest ecosystem.

Deep, dark, and practically unknown

As well as being dark and massive, the deep sea is extremely difficult for humans to access, meaning it has remained almost completely unexplored. We don’t know about the majority of its life forms, nor the processes that take place there. In many cases, we don’t even know its depth with any certainty.

Faunal records collected at depths of more than 2000 m from 1900 to 2024.
OBIS

Despite this lack of information, the deep sea has caught the attention of global powers in recent years, mainly due to its abundance of natural resources that may one day become scarce on dry land, such as nickel and manganese.

The International Seabed Authority (ISA) was established in 1994 to regulate extraction of these resources, and to protect this environment in international waters – over 12 nautical miles from any country’s coast, the sea belongs to no one, and to everyone.

Logos of the ISA and Sustainable Seabed Knowledge Initiative (SSKI).

54% of the sea belongs to everyone

Based in Jamaica, the ISA is the organisation through which the states that signed the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) organise and control mineral-related activities in international waters for the benefit of all mankind.

This is not a straightforward task. The ISA has 170 members – 169 Member States and the European Union – and is responsible for no less than 54% of the area of the world’s oceans.

Moreover, international waters and their resources are counted as part of the common heritage of humanity, the same as the moon and any resources found there.

Information on the Area, the state of biodiversity and the role of the ISA.
https://www.isa.org.jm/sski/sski-did-you-know/

Searching for new species

One well-known 2012 study estimated that we have discovered approximately 200,000 marine species – around 24-34% of the total.

However, knowledge is not the uniform across all of the sea. Coastal and shallow waters have been much more thoroughly studied than the deep sea, and waters in the Northern Hemisphere are much better known than those in the Southern Hemisphere. For some areas, and for many types of fauna and flora, there are not even reliable estimates.

This lack of knowledge surrounding marine biodiversity in the deep sea – and its possible exploitation by mining interests – led the ISA to launch the Sustainable Seabed Knowledge Initiative (SSKI) in 2022.

This programme includes an unprecedented initiative within marine biology: the clear and ambitious goal of describing 1,000 new marine species in international waters by 2030.

SSKI projects and mud dragons

Describing these species will broaden knowledge of life on the seabed, and will help to understand and manage the possible impacts of human activity in deep sea ecosystems.

Scope of SSKI projects, and their expected results.

Following its first call in 2023, the response from the scientific community was overwhelmingly positive – 67 proposals were submitted from all over the world. Of these projects, nine were funded, dealing with the description of animal groups as varied as sharks, starfish and meiofauna. The last of these are very small animals studied by our research team at the Complutense University of Madrid.

Kinorhyncha, also known as a mud dragon (filo Kinorhyncha).
Photo: Diego Cepeda & Nicolas Gayet

The Spanish project focuses on the description of two phylum species (the most basic and broadest classification in the animal kingdom): kinorhyncha, or mud dragons, and the loricifera. These are two little-known categories with a very small number of experts dedicated to their study worldwide, so the potential for discovering new species is enormous.

This project hopes to describe up to eight new species from various areas of the deep ocean, from the Pacific Ocean to the Antarctic.

Why taxonomy matters for conservation

Taxonomy orders and classifies biological diversity, and it is one of the oldest and most basic scientific disciplines in existence. Despite this – or perhaps because of it – it has fewer and fewer people involved, and less and less support.

However, the description and classification of species is a funamental pillar for other disciplines with much broader social and economic implications, such as ecology and conservation. You cannot conserve without knowing what you are going to conserve, nor can you measure something’s impact without knowing what is affected by it.

This research has been supported by the International Seabed Authority’s Sustainable Seabed Knowledge Initiative: One Thousand Reasons Campaign (co-financed by the European Maritime, Fisheries and Aquaculture Fund, Project 101071214 – SSKI-I – EMFAF-2021-ISA-SSKI-IBA).

It is our hope that these 1,000 new marine species will be a step forward, both for deep ocean conservation and for public and scientific interest in taxonomy. Läs mer…

How women’s basic rights and freedoms are being eroded all over the world

From Iraq to Afghanistan to the US, basic freedoms for women are being eroded as governments start rolling back existing laws.

Just a few months ago a ban on Afghan women speaking in public was the latest measure introduced by the Taliban, who took back control of the country in 2021. From August the ban included singing, reading aloud, reciting poetry and even laughing outside their homes.

The Taliban’s ministry for the propagation of virtue and the prevention of vice, which implements one of the most radical interpretations of Islamic law, enforces these rules. They are part of a broader set of “vice and virtue” laws that severely restrict women’s rights and freedoms. Women are even banned from reading the Quran out loud to other women in public.

In the past three years in Afghanistan, the Taliban has taken away many basic rights from women who live there, so that there’s very little that they are allowed to do.

From 2021, the Taliban started introducing restrictions on girls receiving education, starting with a ban on coeducation and then a ban on girls attending secondary schools. This was followed by closing blind girls’ schools in 2023, and making it mandatory for girls in grades four to six (ages nine to 12) to cover their faces on the way to school.

Women can no longer attend universities or receive a degree certificate nationally, or follow midwifery or nursing training in the Kandahar region. Women are no longer allowed to be flight attendants, or to take a job outside the home. Women-run bakeries in the capital Kabul have now been banned. Women are mostly now unable to earn any money, or leave their homes. In April 2024, the Taliban in Helmand province told media outlets to even refrain from airing women’s voices.

Afghanistan is ranked last on the Women, Peace and Security Index and officials at the UN and elsewhere have called it “gender apartheid”. Afghan women are putting their lives on the line — facing surveillance, harassment, assault, arbitrary detention, torture and exile — to protest against the Taliban.

Many diplomats discuss how important it is to “engage” with the Taliban, yet this has not stopped the assault on women’s rights. When diplomats “engage”, they tend to focus on counter-terrorism, counternarcotics, business deals, or hostage returns. Despite everything that has happened to Afghan women over a short period, critics suggest this rarely makes it onto diplomats’ priority list.

Afghan women protest via song against the Taliban.

Iraq’s age of consent

Meanwhile, in Iraq, on August 4 2024, an amendment to Iraq’s 1959 personal status law which would possibly lower the age of consent for marriage to nine years old from 18 (or 15 with permission from a judge and parents) was proposed by member of parliament Ra’ad al-Maliki and supported by conservative Shia factions in the government.

The law would have the potential of having matters of family law – such as marriage – adjudicated by religious authorities. This change could not only legalise child marriage but also strip women of rights related to divorce, child custody and inheritance.

Iraq already has a high rate of underage marriage, with 7% of girls married by 15 years old, and 28% married before the legal age of 18.

Unregistered marriages, not legally recorded in court but conducted through religious or tribal authorities, prevent girls from accessing civil rights, and leave women and girls vulnerable to exploitation, abuse and neglect, with limited options for seeking justice.

Many women’s groups have already mobilised against the law. But the amendment has passed its second reading in parliament. If introduced, it could pave the way for further modifications that deepen sectarian divides and move the country further away from a unified legal system. It would also be an especially troubling step backward in protecting children’s rights and gender equality.

Abortion rights in the US

Meanwhile, in the US, women’s access to abortion has been eroded significantly in the past few years. In late 2021, the US was officially labelled a backsliding democracy by an international thinktank.

Six months later, the landmark US Supreme Court ruling of Roe v Wade, which had safeguarded the constitutional right to abortion for nearly 50 years, was overturned. This led to a cascade of restrictive laws, with more than a quarter of US states enacting outright bans or severe restrictions on abortion.

Republican US congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene suggested, in May 2022, that women should stay celibate if they did not want to get pregnant. If only all women had that choice. In fact, in the US a sexual assault occurs every 68 seconds. One in every five American women has been the victim of an attempted or completed rape. From 2009-13, US Child Protective Services agencies found strong evidence indicating that 63,000 children per year were victims of sexual abuse.

These developments reflect a troubling pattern. There is evidence from Donald Trump’s first term that there could be further erosion of women’s rights in his second presidency. During his previous term there were significant attempts to weaken healthcare access, with his foreign policy reinstating the “global gag rule” restricting access to women’s reproductive healthcare worldwide via funding conditions.

Read more:
How a second Trump presidency is likely to threaten abortion rights and women’s healthcare globally

Fragility of women’s rights

If the world can tolerate the Taliban’s abuses, Iraq’s restrictive laws and the US restrictions on abortion access, it reveals the fragility of women’s and girls’ rights globally, and how easy it is to take them away.

The UN agency, UN Women, says it could take another 286 years to close the global gender gaps in legal protections. No country has yet achieved gender equality, based on the gender pay gap, legal equality and social inequality levels. Women and girls continue to face discrimination in all corners of the world, and it seems to be getting worse. But despite everything women continue to resist. Läs mer…

Glasgow School of Art: wrangles, delays and challenges of a faithful reconstruction ten years on

On December 8, Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris will open its doors to the public for the first time since fire raged through the 14th-century building in April 2019. It has taken just over five years to restore the cathedral – an extraordinary achievement. Scotland’s much-loved Glasgow School of Art, also devastated by fire, has not fared so well. Two blazes in a decade and a restoration project mired in controversy have left the iconic art nouveau landmark shrouded in scaffolding.

In 2014, the first fire partially destroyed the building. A scarcely believable second fire in 2018 left only a shell standing. Painstaking, expensive work to recreate the library and other parts of the school which had just been completed, turned to ashes.

The people of Glasgow were incredulous. Twice they had lost this prized heritage building that had stood as a beacon of creative arts and culture for 125 years, exemplifying the “Glasgow style” of Scottish architect Charles Rennie Mackintosh.

The young Glaswegian whose work influenced art movements across Europe, such as art nouveau and secessionism, was seen as a pioneer of modernism. His work stood out as a new interpretation of modern architecture where asymmetry of form and attention to detail, decoration and furnishings defined the aesthetic.

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The destruction of the art school stands as a threefold loss: that of a famous educational establishment, a landmark building for the city of Glasgow and an important tourist attraction for Scotland. Despite the devastation, the international fame and reputation of the building still carries heft.

This has left the professional conservation community in a dilemma between conserving the art school’s intangible values as a modern piece of art and place of education, and its faithful reconstruction as a major historic Scottish building. This dilemma comes with enormous financial, ethical and practical challenges.

Charles Rennie Mackintosh’s art nouveau masterpiece, Glasgow School of Art.
John Peter Photography / Alamy

There has been an energetic move forward in removing debris, consolidating the building and dismantling key parts of the site in preparation for the reconstruction work. But recent wrangles with insurers have cast doubt over the completion of the conservation work – and consequently the future of the building.

The increase in costs and the timescale of the proposed work began to affect the feasibility of completing the conservation project. Since plans for the rebuild were shelved following a legal dispute with insurers in May 2024, a revised proposal is now being considered. It now looks like the work will not be completed for at least another decade or more.

The cost of delay

This is an astonishing state of affairs for such a important building that attracts international attention. But issues over funding and donations have failed to reflect this fact, delaying the final plan to restore the art school. This is all the more galling when Notre Dame raised than €846 million (£707m) after the fire of April 2019, and President Macron fulfilled his promise to complete the rebuilding within five years.

Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris approaching the completion of its rebuild in September 2024.
Saskia Brouns / Alamy

The authorities need to listen to what matters to the people of Glasgow and the city’s artists when it comes to the conservation and revitalisation of the art school.

This is critical to efforts to create a well-supported and managed plan for the regeneration of the building. Any delay further affects the costs, eroding the almost-enough funding that has been raised in the last few years. It also causes further damage to the fabric of the building and its value in terms of heritage, tourism and amenity for artists.

The proposal to faithfully reconstruct the art school is paramount for a building of such historical and architectural significance. But key to its success are in-depth evaluation processes as well as enough time, budget and skills that enable the completion of the work without running into ethical and authenticity debates.

This article is part of our State of the Arts series. These articles tackle the challenges of the arts and heritage industry – and celebrate the wins, too.

Authenticity is an important concept in heritage conservation. If there are no extensive archival materials, the authenticity of the reconstructed parts can be subject to assumptions and falsifications.

It is also important to ensure clear differentiation between old and new for future generations. Faithful restoration using the same materials requires a quite different process from reconstruction of missing elements, where original materials have been destroyed.

Owing to the severe impact of the fire, this also depends on how detailed the building has been documented to provide accurate information for the reconstruction work, and how specialists will replace the destroyed substance of the building.

Although there have been serious attempts to document the aftermath of the two fires, two critical dimensions should be considered when thinking about the impact of the delay to faithful reconstruction. The first is the approach to restore the lost physical components that were not fully recorded. The second is the material and structural degradation of the building without proper treatment and restoration.

Another huge challenge is the lack of traditional and heritage skills in the UK, which puts considerable pressure on the project in terms of time and money. This is an important part of the long-term management of the project as it raises further uncertainty about a faithful reconstruction.

The restoration of Notre Dame saw local and traditional craftsmanship playing a key role in the project. This aspect is moving in a positive direction with the UK signing up to Unesco’s intangible cultural heritage convention, which should drive new training programmes in traditional arts and crafts, building skills and technologies.

Despite the value of the faithful reconstruction of this architectural masterpiece, it is crucial to make sure that a balanced and realistic approach is adopted to protect and preserve the building. The Mackintosh art school will require alternative strategies in the meantime to avoid the effect of skills shortage on its preservation work. Läs mer…

Why Donald Trump’s election win fuelled a stock market surge

Following Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, Bitcoin was one of the assets that surged in value. This was widely felt to be a response to Trump’s promise to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve – essentially holding a large stock of the cryptocurrency as a security. On November 13, the week after Trump’s win, Bitcoin broke through the US$90,000 (£71,340) price threshold for the first time, and the value of the global crypto market topped US$3 trillion for the first time in three years.

US stock markets the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq also hit record levels, with investors expecting to price in Trump’s promises of tax cuts and tariffs, fuelling the dollar and sparking a sell-off in US government bonds. Promises of corporate tax cuts and deregulation tend to encourage financial innovation, making markets more active.

These and others can be defined as “Trump trades” – financial market trends influenced by the president-elect’s win. These trends emerge as investors adjust their strategies based on the economic policies, regulatory changes and geopolitical impact associated with a Trump presidency.

When Trump last became president in 2017, prices for consumer goods had risen almost 5% over the previous four years. By contrast, since January 2021 those same prices are up by around 20%. This is a dramatically different economic backdrop in which inflation has been a global phenomenon since the onset of the COVID pandemic in 2020.

Supply chain issues, shifting consumer spending patterns, the cost of living and other quirks related to COVID lockdowns collided with the 2021 American Rescue Plan Act (a US$1.9 trillion government package to support workers in the pandemic) to send costs shooting higher.

This combination of higher inflation and interest rates could make many of the ideas Trump talks about either riskier or more costly than before, especially as unemployment is very low. When more people are employed, increased consumer demand can lead to higher prices amid competition for goods and services.

But markets are in euphoria territory right now. The word speculator comes from the Latin “speculum”, meaning mirror. Hence, investors and speculators in the US capital market today are simply mirroring Trump’s promises of economic growth and protectionism.

Trump is definitively market and economy-friendly – and this creates short-term surges in stock values. But stocks will stay high only if Trump follows through with a light-touch approach to regulation to scale back some of the reforms undertaken by President Biden’s administration.

Since 2021, the regulatory burden faced by the finance industry has increased. Agencies like Securities and Exchange Commission and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau have introduced enforcement campaigns against financial firms in order to protect consumers from bad practice. This challenged things like private equity deals and cryptocurrency trades.

Read more:
Spacs: why investors fell in love with these stock market vehicles – and how the bubble burst

Trump’s unpredictability and controversial character might seem like red flags for investors. Yet markets often take a pragmatic approach, focusing more on outcomes than personal traits. For example, Trump’s potential trade war with China might spark market volatility. But investors will adapt as they see tariffs as part of a broader strategy to secure better terms for US businesses.

By contrast, even if markets become volatile or fall (as happened with the US bond market in the aftermath of Trump’s win), investors might still see it as an opportunity for profit. Active traders often thrive on sharp market moves, and many investors are selling their long-term treasury bonds ahead of any further rises in long-term rates (bond prices fall as interest rates rise).

Impact on the EU and UK

The re-election of Trump could have significant implications for both the UK and the EU, touching on things like trade, geopolitics and global economic stability.

Trump’s “America first” policies may pose challenges for the UK and the EU in trade relations. The EU could face tariffs, particularly on sectors like automotive manufacturing. This protectionist approach could disrupt European exports and global trade flows.

And the UK, hoping for a US trade deal post-Brexit, may find itself in a weaker negotiating position under a Trump administration that emphasises US dominance.

Under Biden, the US collaborated with the EU on green energy and technology policies. A Trump presidency, with its rollback of environmental regulations and scepticism of international agreements, could undermine these efforts.

With Trump in charge, the EU and UK could lose a vital ally in decarbonising.
Alex Brandon/Associated Press/Alamy Stock Photo

For Europe, this might mean losing a key ally in global climate initiatives, forcing the bloc to recalibrate its strategies for addressing climate change and advancing technology. It may also escalate tensions around tech regulations, especially if Trump’s policies align with figures like Tesla boss and Trump’s incoming efficiency lead Elon Musk, who often clashes with EU regulatory frameworks. In this sense, Musk can be seen as a financial risk factor.

Under a Trump administration, the combination of tariffs, climate policy rollbacks, and geopolitical dynamics could have significant implications for investors. Tariffs and sanctions often trigger sell-offs in affected sectors, but can create opportunities for speculators, who often anticipate these moves.

For example, hedge funds in the US ahead of Trump’s victory began short selling energy and renewable stocks. They gained US$1.2 billion once the value of their shares fell sharply over concerns that tax credits for green energy will end.

Despite Trump’s rhetoric, markets are underpinned by uncertainty rather than undermined by it. Uncertainty is after all the main source for profit in our western model of capitalism.

It is also true that markets care about tangible actions, and Trump seems determined to deliver on his promises. But only time will tell whether his economic agenda is merely wishful thinking.

Trump has only four years as president and he is in a hurry to move forward with his economic agenda. The chances are that at least some of his economic policies will have a sugar-rush effect and cause markets to surge before their impact fades away once higher interest rates slow the economy. Läs mer…

Many physicists argue the universe is fine-tuned for life – our findings question this idea

Physicists have long grappled with the question of why the universe was able to support the evolution of intelligent life. The values of the many forces and particles, represented by some 30 so-called fundamental constants, all seem to line up perfectly to enable it.

Take gravity. If it were much weaker, matter would struggle to clump together to form stars, planets and living beings. And if it were stronger, that would also create problems. Why are we so lucky?

Research that I recently published with my colleagues John Peacock and Lucas Lombriser now suggests that our universe may not be optimally tailored for life. In fact, we may not be inhabiting the most likely of possible universes.

We particularly studied how the emergence of intelligent life is affected by the density of “dark energy” in the universe. This manifests as a mysterious force that speeds up the expansion of the universe, but we do not know what it is.

The good news is that we can still measure it. The bad news is that the observed value is way smaller than what we would expect from theory. This puzzle is one of the biggest open questions in cosmology, and was a primary motivation for our research.

Anthropic reasoning

We tested whether “anthropic reasoning” may offer a suitable answer. Anthropic reasoning is the idea that we can infer properties of our universe from the fact that we, humans, exist. In the late 80s, physics Nobel laureate Steven Weinberg discussed a possible anthropic solution for the observed value of the dark energy density.

Weinberg reasoned that a larger dark energy density would speed up the universe’s expansion. This would counteract gravity’s effort to clump matter together and form galaxies. Fewer galaxies means fewer stars in the universe. Stars are essential for the emergence of life as we know it, so too much dark energy would suppress the odds of intelligent life such as humans appearing.

Weinberg then considered a “multiverse” of different possible universes, each with a different dark energy content. Such a scenario follows from some theories of cosmic inflation, a period of accelerated expansion occurring early in the universe’s history.

Weinberg proposed that only a tiny fraction of the universes within the multiverse, whether real or hypothetical, would have a sufficiently small dark energy density to enable galaxies, stars and, ultimately, intelligent life, to appear. This would explain why we observe a small dark energy density – despite our theories suggesting it should be much larger – we simply could not exist otherwise.

Number of stars (white) produced in universes with different dark energy densities. Clockwise from the upper-left panel: no dark energy, same dark energy density as in our universe, 30 and 10 times the dark energy density in our universe.
Credit: Courtesy of Oscar Veenema, former undergraduate student at Durham University, now PhD student at Oxford University, CC BY-SA

A potential pitfall in Weinberg’s reasoning is the assumption that the fraction of matter in the universe that ends up in galaxies is proportional to the number of stars formed. Some 35 years later, we know that it is not that simple. Our research then aimed at testing Weinberg’s anthropic argument with a more realistic star formation model.

Counting stars

Our goal was to determine the number of stars formed over the entire history of a universe with a given dark energy density. This boils down to a counting exercise.

First, we picked a dark energy density between zero and 100,000 times the observed value. Depending on the amount, gravity can hold matter together more or less easily, determining how galaxies can form.

Next, we estimated the yearly amount of stars formed within galaxies over time. This followed from the balance between the amount of cool gas that can fuel star formation, and the opposing action of galactic outflows that heat up and push gas outside galaxies.

We then determined the fraction of ordinary matter that was converted into stars over the entire lifetime (past and future) of a certain universe model. This number expressed the efficiency of that universe at producing stars.

Credit: Image readapted from D. Sorini, J. A. Peacock, L. Lombriser, in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Volume 535, Issue 2, Pages 1449–1474. Source: https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stae2236, CC BY-SA

We then assumed that the likelihood of generating intelligent life in a universe is proportional to its star formation efficiency. As the figure above shows, this suggests that the most hospitable universe contains about one-tenth of the dark energy density observed in our universe.

Our universe is thus not too far from the most favourable possible for life. But it also isn’t the most ideal.

But to validate Weinberg’s anthropic reasoning, we should imagine picking a random intelligent life form in the multiverse, and ask them what dark energy density they observe.

We found that 99.5% of them would experience a larger dark energy density than observed in our universe. In other words, it looks like we inhabit a rare and unusual universe within the multiverse.

This does not contradict the fact that universes with more dark energy would suppress star formation, hence reducing the chances of forming intelligent life.

Marbles in boxes.
CC BY-SA

By analogy, suppose we want to sort 300 marbles into 100 boxes. Each box represents a universe, and each marble an intelligent observer. Let us put 100 marbles in box number one, four in box number two and then two marbles in all other boxes. Clearly, the first box contains the single largest number of marbles. But if we pick one marble at random from all boxes, it is more likely to come from a box other than number one.

Likewise, universes with little dark energy are individually more hospitable for life. But life, although more unlikely, can still spawn in the many possible universes with abundant dark energy too – there will still be a few stars in them. Our calculation finds that most observers among all universes will experience a higher dark energy density than is measured in our universe.

Also, we found that the most typical observer would measure a value about 500 times larger than in our universe.

Where does that leave us?

In conclusion, our results challenge the anthropic argument that our existence explains why we have such a low value of dark energy. We could have more easily found ourselves in a universe with a larger dark energy density.

Anthropic reasoning may still be salvaged if we adopt more complex multiverse models. For example, we could allow for the amount of both dark energy and ordinary matter to vary across different universes. Perhaps, the reduced spawning of intelligent life due to a higher dark energy density might be compensated by a higher density of ordinary matter.

In any case, our findings warn us against a simplistic application of anthropic arguments. This makes the dark energy problem even harder to grapple with.

What should we cosmologists do now? Roll up our sleeves and think harder. Only time will tell how we solve the puzzle. However we will do it, I am sure it will be incredibly exciting. Läs mer…

Is Cop29 a waste of time? Not if rich countries commit to paying for climate damage in developing world

“An ambitious new climate finance goal” should be the priority of every nation at the latest round of international climate negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan. That’s according to Simon Stiell, who heads the United Nations process for negotiating an agreement to limit global heating.

Discussions are deadlocked at the start of the second week. The objective is to raise money to drive a global shift towards clean energy and ensure that those who bear the brunt of escalating climate disasters are resilient enough to respond.

Finding this funding is more difficult in the wake of the US election. President-elect Donald Trump has promised to pull his country, the world’s richest and biggest historical emitter of greenhouse gas, out of the Paris agreement (again) and possibly out of international climate negotiations entirely.

Political bedfellow Javier Milei, the far-right president of Argentina, has withdrawn his country’s delegates from the talks.

Trump has also suggested he will repeal the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which extended tax credits for renewable energy and green technology investments in the US and mobilised private finance for climate action to the tune of billions of dollars.

Neglecting these efforts will fuel mounting climate disasters such as the recent floods in Valencia, Spain. How the global community acts to compensate the countries least able to bear these impacts is more important than ever.

Why does it matter?

The stakes are huge for low- and middle-income countries. Extreme weather, along with slower impacts like sea-level rise or soil degradation, can hurl developing countries into spiralling debt, forcing them pay to rebuild over and over again.

This diverts money from measures to reduce carbon emissions, but also from healthcare, education and other public services. Many of the economic gains of poor countries in recent decades are being undone by climate change.

Climate change is heaping punishment on poor, developing states.
EPA-EFE/Ernesto Mastrascusa

The loss and damage caused by a warming climate has loomed over negotiations between rich and poor countries for more than a decade. Last year’s summit, Cop28 in Dubai, opened with an announcement that a new fund would be established. Direct compensation for the disproportionate loss and damage sustained by the poorest nations is not on the table, but what the fund will finance is still to be decided.

After seven years of observing the politics of climate loss and damage at the UN negotiations, it has become apparent to me that the trickiest issues are kicked down the road. Important decisions are devolved to poorly resourced bodies while committees are stubbornly split between developing and developed countries.

With the loss and damage fund, there remains no answer to the question of where funding will come from, whether it will be anywhere near enough to address the mounting costs and who will be able to access it.

This is not to say that there hasn’t been progress. Rich countries pledged about US$700 million to the fund at Cop28. The fund’s board has chosen the Philippines, a large country on the frontline of climate change, as its host. This grants the board legal personality to form partnerships, including with the World Bank, which will host the secretariat responsible for implementing the decisions of the board.

How much? And how will it be paid?

Even conservative estimates suggest that the total cost of loss and damage could reach between US$150 and US$300 billion (£119-238 billion) a year by 2030.

The question is somewhat dependent on how loss and damage needs are defined. Developed countries want to focus on projects that, for example, address losses from slow-onset hazards and avoid the topic of compensation. Developing countries on the fund’s board have said that at least US$100 billion a year of support should be provided by 2030, and while they avoid the word “compensation”, they emphasise the importance of public finance – that is, money raised by governments, rather than private sector funding.

Meanwhile, developed countries prefer investment from individuals and companies to fill the gap. But the business case for funding programmes to address climate losses – museums to commemorate cultural heritage that has disappeared under rising seas, or counselling for children dealing with the anguish of hurricanes – looks very different to, for example, investing in renewable energy.

A degree of imagination is required. Civil society groups have pushed for innovative forms of climate finance, like a tax on flights or a levy on shipping.

Most models of public climate finance provide grants for particular projects. This is not so helpful for addressing loss and damage, which demands money urgently for repairs and recovery efforts.

A march in favour of climate finance for developing countries in Karachi, Pakistan.
EPA-EFE/Rehan Khan

Senegalese and American banker Ibrahima Cheikh Diong was recently appointed the executive director of the fund. He led an international agency that pooled insurance for African countries following extreme weather.

Developed countries have long preferred insurance, as opposed to publicly funded grants, to finance loss and damage. Some observers worry Diong’s background will prime the fund accordingly. But as climate impacts escalate, some assets, like homes and businesses in vulnerable coastal towns or farming villages, may no longer be insurable.

Slow but relatively certain changes such as sea-level rise are also not suitable for insurance-based financing. And then there are losses related to cultural heritage, physical and mental health and vanishing livelihoods that cannot be compensated through insurance.

Since the money pledged in Dubai for the fund has not been delivered yet, and the sources, types and ways of accessing the fund have yet to be determined, the fund’s fate remains ambiguous.

Next year’s conference will mark 30 years of climate change negotiations. No wonder people are asking whether this process is working. The loss and damage fund is a microcosm of the wider negotiations. Its success or failure would indicate whether these summits are, or ever were, fit for purpose.

Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?
Get our award-winning weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far. Läs mer…

Canada’s first moon rover will soon have a name as it prepares to explore a hostile lunar region

The Canadian Space Agency announced a competition today to name Canada’s first-ever rover mission to the moon. This unmanned mission will explore the south polar region of the moon to search for water ice and explore its unique geology.

I am a professor and planetary geologist. I am also the principal investigator for Canada’s first rover mission to the moon and a member of the science team for the upcoming Artemis III mission, the first human trip to the moon since 1972.

A piece on Canada’s moon rover mission. (Global News)

A Canadian first

It is almost two years to the day that Canadensys Aerospace Corporation and its team was selected to build the Canadian lunar rover.

This mission is hugely significant because it’s not only the first rover that Canada will send to the moon, but it will be the first-ever Canadian-led mission to another planetary body.

While Canadian technology has made it to the surface of the moon and Mars before, it’s always been on missions led by other nations.

Not that this is a bad thing: science is only possible through collaboration. But it’s a testament to the calibre of Canada’s space community that, for the first time in history, we are in the driver’s seat.

Canada’s first rover mission is truly a team effort. Supporting Canadensys are seven Canadian companies that will build various parts of the rover and its science instruments.

I am proud to lead the science team, which includes faculty and students from six Canadian universities in Québec, Ontario, Manitoba, Alberta and British Columbia. In keeping with the spirit of collaboration in space, we also have several scientists from the United States and the United Kingdom on our team.

One of the science instruments is also being provided by the John Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, supported by NASA. In return, Canada gets a launch from NASA.

Infographic on Canada’s lunar rover mission.
(Canadian Space Agency), CC BY

What’s in a name?

Every mission needs a name, but not everything is equal when it comes to naming spacecraft. Satellites, for example, are often named in a very functional way — like Radarsat, Canada’s flagship satellite program.

When it comes to rover missions, however, NASA has been choosing inspirational names since the early 1990s with its first Mars rover, Sojourner. Then came along Spirit and Opportunity in 2004 followed by Curiosity eight years later.

The most recent arrival on Mars was Perseverance in 2021, which is currently emerging from a deep meteorite impact crater called Jezero.

NASA’s goal in naming its rovers is to inspire interest in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM); this has undoubtedly been a huge success.

The connection to rovers has also become deeply personal, evident in the outpouring of grief when Oppy — the nickname given to NASA’s Opportunity rover — was declared “dead” in 2019.

The European Space Agency followed suit with its hugely popular animated stories for the Rosetta mission — the first mission designed to orbit and land on a comet — that depicted its Philae lander with a backpack and yellow helmet.

The Philae lander depicted with a backpack and yellow helmet.
(European Space Agency), CC BY

Four potential names

The names of NASA’s series of Mars rovers are inspirational and capture the quest of exploration. In contrast, the Apollo and Artemis programs and many other space missions were named after figures in Greek mythology. Other mission names have historical connotations; some also allude to the culture and values of the country leading the mission.

For Canada’s first moon rover, the Canadian Space Agency has come up with a shortlist of four potential names that conjure up various characteristics of Canada as well as capturing the spirit and goals of the mission:

Athabasca — A famous river that flows from the Rockies through Alberta to Lake Athabasca. Canada’s rivers have been used for millennia and continue to be pathways of discovery, transport and exchange.

Courage — A name that would be representative of the work that has led to the Canadian lunar rover mission.

Glacier — Not only are glaciers associated with the polar regions of Canada, but one of the goals of the rover mission is to find water ice on the moon.

Pol-R — A word play on polar. Canada is a polar country and the rover mission will be landing in the south polar region of the Moon.

The online voting form to name Canada’s first rover mission to the moon is open until Dec. 20, 2024.

The Canadian lunar rover pictured on the surface of the moon in a virtual reality environment. Will it be named Athabasca, Courage, Glacier or Pol-R?
(Canadian Space Agency)

The work continues

As our team waits for Canadians to choose the name of our mission, we are hard at work on all aspects of its design and implementation.

In June, we got the green light for our preliminary design review aimed at assessing whether the original design met all the requirements set forth by the government of Canada, and that the risks, cost and schedule, were all acceptable.

We haven’t chosen an easy mission for Canada’s first trip to the moon. We are going to one of the most hostile regions of the lunar surface: the South Pole. Because of this, our rover must survive very long and cold lunar nights, where the temperature can drop below minus 200C for up to 14 Earth days.

We also have to pack all the hardware, plus our six science instruments, into the rover, which is the size of a small coffee table and weighs only 35 kilograms.

The author, Gordon Osinski, poses next to an early prototype of the Canadian lunar rover.
(Gordon Osinski), Author provided (no reuse)

I recently provided an update on the science of our soon-to-be-named mission at the International Astronautical Congress in Milan, Italy. In addition to talking about our science instruments, I also delved into the three main objectives of the mission:

To investigate the geology of this unique region of the moon where, so far, no human or robot has ever been.
To search for water ice, a major discovery in the decades since the Apollo missions. The moon was thought to be devoid of water, but satellite observations suggest deposits of water ice may be present in this polar region. But we need boots on the ground — or wheels, in our case — to confirm these satellite observations.
To study the radiation environment of this region in preparation for the return of humans to the moon.

Canada’s long involvement in space rovers

Over the past two decades, the Canadian Space Agency has funded the construction of a series of prototype planetary rovers ranging from small so-called nano-rovers to massive machines capable of carrying two astronauts. Our new lunar rover has a lot of heritage behind it.

The Canadian Space Agency’s fleet of prototype rovers.
(Canadian Space Agency), CC BY

If not for the delay to the launch of the European Space Agency’s ExoMars rover mission, originally scheduled for 2022, Canada would have already had wheels on Mars. The wheels, chassis and drive train for the Rosalind Franklin ExoMars rover was built by Canada’s MDA Space. Launch is now set for 2028.

Canada has also set its sights on a much bigger moon rover. Announced in the 2023 federal budget, Canada aims to build a lunar utility vehicle that will help to transport cargo, perform science investigations and support astronauts on the moon.

This rover will be a major contribution to the NASA-led Artemis program. Following the flight of Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen on the upcoming Artemis II lunar flyby mission, the Lunar Utility Vehicle, Canadarm3 and other Canadian contributions to the Artemis program will ensure a Canadian will one day walk on the moon. Läs mer…