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Prime Minister Anthony Albanese didn’t see this coming. At the global COP29 climate talks in Baku, the Australian government was indirectly criticised by two allies, the United States and the United Kingdom, over its refusal to sign onto the goal of tripling nuclear power globally by 2050.

The UK’s original press release said Australia was “expected” to sign on to the nuclear push, under the umbrella of a long-running nuclear research pact known as the Gen IV Forum. Australia signed up to this pact in 2016, under a previous government, and in 2021 signed onto the AUKUS security pact to procure nuclear submarines from the US. This is perhaps why UK leaders assumed Australia would back the broader push to promote nuclear power around the world.

Not so. While Australia has signed up for nuclear submarines, it has not made any effort to adopt nuclear power. But nuclear power is shaping up as a major election issue, with the Coalition pushing for Australia to go nuclear and Labor pointing out the improbable economics of nuclear in a sun and wind rich country.

“As Australia does not have a nuclear energy industry, and nuclear power [is] illegal domestically, we will not be signing up to this agreement,” a government spokesperson said.

Nuclear or solar? Australia’s calculations are different to other nations.
Yuri Hoyda/Shutterstock

What exactly is this nuclear initiative?

The US and UK initiative announced at Baku is intended to supersede the Generation IV Forum set up in 2001 to produce designs for fourth-generation nuclear reactors and eventually replace the Gen III designs currently running in many countries. More than 20 years later, there is only one prototype Gen IV reactor, which began operating in China this year. Plans for a larger successor appear to have been shelved for the moment.

The US and UK have had nuclear power since the late 1950s. But the goal of tripling nuclear capacity in 25 years is wildly unrealistic, certainly as far as the US and UK are concerned.

In 2023, about 9% of the world’s electricity came from the roughly 400 nuclear reactors producing power. In recent years, nuclear growth has been concentrated in Asia – especially China, which has 30 reactors under construction – followed by Russia and Eastern Europe. Tripling the world’s nuclear power output would be a herculean feat.

Since the US completed the Vogtle plant in 2023, years behind schedule and billions over budget, there have been no commercial nuclear plants under construction in the country. A handful of proposals approved during the much-touted “nuclear renaissance” of the early 2000s could in theory be commenced, but there is no sign of that happening. The idea of building any substantial number of plants by the mid 2030s, as is proposed in the US strategy, is a fantasy.

The UK has two nuclear reactors under construction at Hinkley Point, both massively overdue and over-budget. A number of other projects announced in the early 2000s have been abandoned, leaving only the Sizewell C plant, a 3.2-gigawatt power station proposed in England.

Sizewell C was officially approved in November 2022 but financing has proved problematic. The UK government has repeatedly deferred a final decision, currently planned for early next year. Assuming a positive outcome, Sizewell C might be in operation by 2035. After that, there are no large-scale plants in the pipeline.

With no large-scale nuclear on the horizon, attention has switched to the idea of “small modular reactors”, ranging from 70 to 300MW in size. This category includes truly modular designs, built in a factory and shipped to the construction site, as well as cut-down versions of existing large reactors. A notable example is the Westinghouse AP300, which is based on the AP1000 used at Vogtle.

Although no SMRs have yet been constructed (or perhaps precisely because there have been no real-world tests of ambitious claims), advocates suggest they can be constructed in five to seven years at a lower cost per megawatt than existing large models. But in Australia, CSIRO modelling suggests power from SMRs will actually be more expensive than large nuclear – which is much more expensive than renewables firmed with storage and transmission.

There has been a recent burst of enthusiasm for the idea of using SMRs to power data centres for cloud and AI systems.

But a closer look suggests caution. Big tech giants such as Amazon, Google and Microsoft have announced plans for delivery in the early 2030s, but in each case, the proposed capacity is 1GW or less.

As a result, it’s highly unlikely they will amount to more than 5GW of new capacity over five years.

By contrast, renewables are only gaining strength. In the second half of 2024 alone, the US is expected to install more than 40 GW of utility-scale capacity, including 10GW of battery storage. China is installing renewables at truly prodigious rates, with around 330 GW installed or under way.

Doesn’t the AUKUS deal pave the way to nuclear power?

Many commentators have this week drawn a line between this nuclear announcement and AUKUS. But this contradicts previous assurances that the submarine deal was not linked to the legalisation of nuclear energy

When the nuclear submarine pact was first announced, even strong nuclear advocates moved to distinguish between nuclear subs and nuclear plants. As Liberal-National MP Ted O’Brien said in 2021, the AUKUS deal was not related to nuclear power:

They are two entirely different offerings. The nuclear-propelled submarines do not require a change in Australian law. So legally they are completely different issues for the parliament to deal with. There is no moratorium that needs to be lifted

The US and UK proposal to triple nuclear power involves a large amount of wishful thinking and very little reality.

The AUKUS pact between Australia, the US and the UK would see Australia own nuclear submarines.
Leon Neal/AP

But that doesn’t help the Albanese government much. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, whose party now has a platform of creating a domestic nuclear power industry in Australia, can fairly claim that his ideas are consistent with the announced positions of our AUKUS allies.

The government is also open to attack from the Greens and other critics of AUKUS. With a recently announced decision to store AUKUS-related nuclear waste at submarine shipyards, it’s becoming increasingly arguable that, contrary to earlier assurances, participation in AUKUS will lock Australia into the full nuclear fuel cycle, potentially including reprocessing and nuclear energy generation.

Then there’s the Trump factor. Donald Trump’s return as US President could render all these calculations irrelevant. Although Trump is strongly pro-nuclear in his rhetoric, he is likely to abandon the green industrial policy of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act which provides US government support for nuclear power. And, if the AUKUS deal begins to look troublesome, he will have no hesitation in repudiating it or demanding a renegotiation on unfavourable terms. Läs mer…

United States presidential elections consistently draw global attention due to their far-reaching impacts on both the American and global economies. The 2024 election was no exception, standing out as a particularly significant event that drew unprecedented scrutiny.

President-elect Donald Trump’s victory has been seen as an inflection point signalling a dramatic shift in the political and economic landscape both of the U.S. and beyond. Trump’s return to office is expected to bring a mix of policy changes that could reshape market dynamics, regulatory frameworks and international trade.

Reactions from the financial community have been a mix of hope and concern. On one hand, some investors and market participants have expressed optimism about potential economic policies including stimulus measures, tax reductions and deregulation.

On the other hand, Trump’s return to office raises concerns about trade policies, geopolitical risks and policy unpredictability. Trump’s previous administration was marked by trade wars and an “America First” approach that strained relationships with trading partners.

Against this backdrop, our recent study, which hasn’t been peer-reviewed yet, analyzed the U.S. stock market’s reaction to the election outcome. By examining how different types of firms responded to this political shock, our findings offer useful guidance for investors, analysts and regulators alike.

Trump’s previous administration was marked by trade wars, notably with China. Trump, then the president, shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, in June 2019.
(AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

Elections and the stock market

Political events, especially presidential elections, have long been associated with fluctuations in stock market behaviour. Historically, U.S. markets have shown a tendency for positive performance during election years.

From 1928 to 2016, the S&P 500 Index saw more positive performance than negative, with 83 per cent of elections providing positive performance.

Despite this positive historical trend, the relationship between these events and market volatility is not always straightforward. A study examining the effects of presidential election announcements on Egyptian and U.S. markets found no statistically significant impact on stock market volatility in either market.

Instead, both markets demonstrated an increase in abnormal returns coupled with a decrease in volatility post-election, suggesting both election outcomes were efficiently absorbed and reflected in stock prices.

For investors, this study highlights the importance of focusing on long-term fundamentals rather than overreacting to election-related noise.

Abnormal equity returns

We analyzed the impact of the 2024 U.S. presidential election on equity markets using an event study methodology spanning from three days prior to three days after election day. It focused on the variations in response across firms of different sizes and various industry sectors.

The results indicate significant abnormal returns in U.S. equities during the immediate post-election trading session after Donald Trump’s victory was confirmed.

However, this initial surge was followed by a reversal, indicating that investor sentiment fluctuated over time. A closer look at firm-level data shows that small-cap equities with higher domestic exposure experienced the most positive abnormal returns.

Sector-specific analysis reveals varied responses: the energy sector saw substantial gains, likely due to anticipated regulatory shifts, while the chemical sector had more moderate post-event reactions. These findings underscore the complex and varied responses the market can have to significant political developments.

Signs marking the intersection of Broad and Wall Streets appear near the New York Stock Exchange in October 2024 in New York.
(AP Photo/Peter Morgan)

What does this mean for Canadians?

What do our findings mean for Canadians? The real answer is that it depends. From a cautionary perspective, the initial signs aren’t promising.

The Canadian dollar recently fell to a four-year-low against the U.S. dollar, which could lead to higher inflation since many products are imported using U.S. currency. This could compel the Bank of Canada to delay interest rate cuts or even pause them altogether, potentially cooling the Canadian economy.

Trump’s proposed 10 per cent across-the-board tariff — and possible retaliatory tariffs from Canada — would be devastating for the Canadian economy, according to TD economist Marc Ercolao.

Then there’s the chance that Trump’s plan for mass deportations could lead to increased asylum claims from people crossing into Canada. That could have a negative impact on the Canadian economy by straining the country’s resources.

However, there’s still room for optimism. Many Canadians invest in the U.S. stock market; Canadian investors acquired $44.5 billion of U.S. equity securities in 2024, according to Statistics Canada.

Based on our findings, U.S. stock markets took this victory positively, which, in turn, could help many Canadians, especially those with Registered Retirement Savings Plans. There’s also hope that Trump’s aggressive trade threats were merely election rhetoric and Canada could still avoid being drawn into a broader tariff war.

Still, there’s no such thing as a “free lunch.” The stock market’s post-election hot streak may have longer repercussions for both the environment (for example, increased fracking and discontinuing the electric vehicle tax credit) and the global economy. Läs mer…

Gradually, then suddenly is how Ernest Hemingway described going bankrupt. The climate crisis could be on a similar trajectory.

“It took a century for the globe to warm the first 0.3°C, but the world has warmed by 1°C in just the last 60 years,” says Ed Hawkins, a professor of climate science at the University of Reading.

Read more:
Cop29: How fast is Earth warming?

Record-high emissions of greenhouse gas from fossil-fired power plants, cars and boilers mean that our planet is heating faster than at any time in at least the last half a billion years. This blistering temperature rise appeared to accelerate further in 2023 and 2024, threatening sudden shifts in the Earth system – like the collapse of the Amazon rainforest – that could transform our world.

It was a fear of triggering such tipping points that motivated signatories of the 2015 Paris agreement, particularly delegates from small island states, to strive to limit long-term warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Some experts believe that humanity has left cutting emissions too late to stop global heating at this threshold.

Read more:
We passed 1.5°C of human-caused warming this year (just not as the Paris agreement measures it)

So, what hopes rest on Cop29, the latest UN climate summit in Azerbaijan?

This roundup of The Conversation’s climate coverage comes from our award-winning weekly climate action newsletter. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed.

During each of these conferences, academics publish a major assessment of humanity’s carbon emissions over the past year. Here’s what they found.

Fossil fuel emissions are still rising

Countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels, the overwhelming cause of climate change, at Cop28 in Dubai, which was the last time the world met to discuss global heating. A year on, the dominance of coal, oil and gas has not shifted.

“CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels continue to increase, year on year,” says Pep Canadell, chief research scientist of CSIRO Environment, and his team who led the assessment.

Read more:
Global carbon emissions inch upwards in 2024 despite progress on EVs, renewables and deforestation

They predict that humanity will emit 37.4 billion tonnes of CO₂ in 2024. Coal emissions are close to stagnant (up 0.2%), though India saw strong growth.

Gas (up 2.4%) and oil emissions (0.9%) drove this year’s peak, as international aviation, a big oil consumer, nearly recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Drought in the Amazon and unprecedented fires in Canada (strengthened by El Niño, a warm phase in a natural cycle centred on the Pacific Ocean which affects the global climate) account for land use emissions that were slightly higher than the last decade’s average – 4.2 billion tonnes, or 10% of all emissions from human activity in 2024.

There are glimmers of good news amid these findings.

The growth of fossil CO₂ emissions is slowing: they grew 1.1% in 2023 and 0.8% this year. Norway, New Zealand and South Korea joined the US and 17 other countries (mostly in the EU) whose emissions are falling. Their secret? More renewable electricity powering more electric vehicles and heat pumps.

China, the world’s largest emitter, installed more solar panels last year than the US has in its entire history. China’s emissions could even plateau in 2024.

China installed more solar panels last year than the US ever has.
Jenson/Shutterstock

Meanwhile, emissions from land use (think farming and forestry) have plateaued, after a decade of steady growth.

“This shows humanity is tackling deforestation and the growth of fossil CO₂ emissions is slowing,” the team say.

“However, this is not enough to put global emissions on a downward trajectory.”

No more distractions

The Earth system is working hard to absorb these emissions and balance out their effects. The strain is evident in a vast network of ocean currents called the great ocean conveyor belt, which redistributes the excess heat humans have introduced.

Melting ice in the Arctic is dumping freshwater into the north Atlantic portion of this conveyor, diluting the regional contrast in water salinity that is its engine. The current is slowing down, and may be more sluggish now than at any time during the last millennium.

Read more:
Meltwater from Greenland and the Arctic is weakening ocean circulation, speeding up warming down south

“It could be 30% weaker by 2040. That’s 20 years earlier than initially projected,” say Laurie Menviel and Gabriel Pontes at UNSW Sydney’s Climate Change Research Centre. “This means we have even less time to stabilise the climate.”

Scientists are reporting the consequences of inaction with a mounting sense of urgency. If the UN process for brokering a limit to global heating is failing, what needs to change?

Arctic ice is rapidly melting.
Michal Balada/Shutterstock

One proposal is to ban authoritarian states that sell fossil fuels, like Azerbaijan, from hosting future summits.

Read more:
Authoritarian fossil fuel states keep hosting climate conferences – how do these regimes operate and what do they want?

Even in supposedly healthy democracies, however, corporate lobbyists are allowed to treat these conferences as networking events. And the influence of big business on climate policy doesn’t end at the convention centre door.

Read more:
Thousands of corporate lobbyists are at the UN climate summit in Baku. But what exactly is ’lobbying’ and how does it work?

“In the UK, briefing by a thinktank linked to fossil fuel money helped the government draft recent anti-protest laws aimed at climate activists,” says Christina Toenshoff, an assistant professor of European politics and political economy at Leiden University.

Donald Trump’s return as US president dims the prospects of international collaboration. His brash climate scepticism also provides cover for people who profit from the climate crisis by making them appear reasonable. Annie Snelson-Powell, an expert in corporate sustainability at the University of Bath, suggests that ExxonMobil chief executive Darren Woods may have had ulterior motives when he recently urged president-elect Trump to honour the Paris agreement.

Read more:
US politics has long shaped global climate action and science – how much will Trump’s opposition matter?

Read more:
Why big oil and gas firms might want the Paris agreement to survive

It’s important not to get distracted. The problem has remained the same since this process began, says Lisa Vanhala, a professor of political science at UCL. The countries that got rich carbonising the atmosphere must compensate the countries that were impoverished, and help them decarbonise and adapt to a deteriorating climate.

Read more:
Is Cop29 a waste of time? Not if rich countries commit to paying for climate damage in developing world

While it may seem expedient to deny it in the short term, there is nothing gained by downplaying political reality – as the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, recently did when he said his country could cut its emissions without an upheaval.

“Tackling climate change effectively requires a shift to a more equal society, where happiness is prioritised over consumption,” say Sam Hampton (University of Oxford) and Lorraine Whitmarsh (University of Bath) who study low-carbon lifestyle change.

Read more:
Keir Starmer says the UK can decarbonise without disruption – that’s neither true nor helpful

“It necessitates radical behavioural changes, particularly from the wealthiest, and policies that enable these changes.” Läs mer…

Asbestos, a notorious carcinogen, was in widespread use throughout the 20th century – from building materials to brake pads and even fake snow on film sets including The Wizard of Oz and White Christmas.

In the 1960s, a link was established between asbestos exposure and mesothelioma, an incurable cancer that primarily affects the lungs but can also affect the abdomen and heart. As a result, asbestos as a product was banned in the UK – but not until 1999.

Exposure to asbestos is accountable for 80% of all mesothelioma cases. The development of asbestos-related mesothelioma after exposure is a complicated and decades long process lasting for around 30-50 years.

In the 21st century, some women are suing cosmetics companies for asbestos related mesothelioma as a result of asbestos exposure.

Asbestos related mesothelioma

In geological terms, asbestos is a whole group of minerals, but there are six fibrous asbestos minerals that are known to cause mesothelioma; chrysotile (white), amosite (brown), crocidolite (blue), anthophyllite, fibrous tremolite and fibrous actinolite.

When observed using a microscope, these asbestos minerals are bundles of fibres, known as a fibrous asbestiform. The fibrous bundles are similar to rope; and, much like rope, an asbestiform bundle can fray and break up into smaller fibres.

If a bundle of asbestiform fibres breaks up into smaller, microscopic, fibres, such as during deconstruction work, they can become dust particles that are easily inhaled. Once in the lungs, they can find their way to the mesothelium – a tissue membrane that lines the lungs, abdomen and heart.

Once an asbestos fibre is in the lung mesothelium it can remain there for decades, where it will cause microscopic scratches. The body recognises asbestos fibres as a foreign body. To heal the damage, immune cells are sent to the area to break down the asbestos fibres.

However, asbestos fibres are resistant to the immune attack. And the chemicals produced by the immune cells to break down the asbestos fibres attack the mesothelium, producing mesothelioma.

There are no records of asbestos being intentionally used in cosmetics – but there is a risk of low level asbestos contamination in talcum minerals.

From eye shadow to blusher and face powder, talc is a common ingredient in make up. Talc is incorporated into cosmetic formulas because it’s a moisture absorbent anti-caking agent, which makes products easier to apply.

As part of a BBC investigation in 2024, eight commercially available cosmetic samples containing talc were tested using transmission electron microscopy – an imaging technique used to view the smallest structures in matter. From this analysis, trace levels of asbestos were found in two of the samples.

Talcum rock is a solid mineral that’s mined from the earth and powdered to produce talc. The microscopic appearance of talc and asbestos fibres are dissimilar but they share other characteristics. They’re both formed in similar geological conditions and classified as silicate minerals, comprised of the same chemical elements: silicon, magnesium, iron, oxygen and hydrogen.

The different microscopic structure between talcum and asbestos is the product of the arrangement of the chemical elements during the mineral formation. Like the difference between scrambled eggs and poached eggs – both are made from eggs, but the way the egg has been cooked results in a different appearance.

Due to the similarities between asbestos and talc, it is common for asbestos minerals to form within talcum minerals deposits. These deposits can range from microscopic deposits to large discrete zones of asbestos.

Consistent testing since the 1970s has found asbestiform fibres in some commercial talc products.

Consumer risk

As of 2022, 7.3 million tonnes of talcum are mined per year. However, the talc industry has been resistant to regulation, voluntarily introducing a technique called X-ray diffraction to determine any asbestos content, which has limited detection ability.

This means there’s a possibility that some asbestos fibre contamination may have gone undetected in cosmetic talc products tested using this technique. Using talc based cosmetic products, then, may be risky – and, currently, little information is provided to consumers.

If the use of talc based cosmetics is to become a matter of consumer risk, similar to smoking, consumers must be made aware of the potential dangers.

Talc is powder, which increases the risk of airborne particulates – microscopic particles of solid or liquid matter suspended in the air. Powder cosmetics are usually applied to the face, which then increases the risk of inhaling any airborne particulates. If those particulates are asbestiform fibres, the end result is very likely to be asbestos related mesothelioma. Läs mer…

In September 1933, American meteorologist Joseph Kincer asked a simple question: is the climate changing? So began the effort to understand the scope of humanity’s interference with the climate.

By examining trends in measured temperatures at many different locations around the world, Kincer concluded that the world was getting warmer, but did not suggest a reason. A few years later in 1938, British engineer Guy Callendar showed that Earth’s land temperatures had warmed by about 0.3°C in the previous 50 years.

Callendar also argued that this warming was largely due to increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from the burning of coal, which built on earlier theories of the greenhouse effect.

Today, measurements from thousands of weather stations on land and from satellites and ships are combined with weather forecast models to produce a consistent picture of how the climate is changing day by day and decade to decade.

Each stripe represents a year which was either cooler (blue) or warmer (red) than Earth’s long-term average temperature from 1850 to 2023.
Ed Hawkins/University of Reading

Negotiators are gathered in Azerbaijan for Cop29 (the latest round of UN climate change negotiations) at a time of great peril. The last two years, 2023 and 2024, were the warmest in records stretching back to the mid-19th century and will be close to 1.5°C above the temperature of the early industrial era. It took a century for the globe to warm the first 0.3°C, but the world has warmed by 1°C in just the last 60 years.

Earth is getting hotter, and at a faster rate.

Earth is probably warming at the fastest pace on record.
Ed Hawkins/National Centre for Atmospheric Science

Rate of warming

What determines the rate of global warming now is primarily humanity’s emissions of greenhouse gases. If the amount of greenhouse gas we are emitting increases, then the rate at which the world is getting hotter speeds up. Reduce emissions and warming continues, but at a slower pace. Only once emissions are net zero are global temperatures expected to roughly stabilise.

There are other factors and, as a result, the globe has not warmed at the same rate through time. The rate of global warming has been fairly even at 0.2°C per decade from 1970 until now, much faster than any period before. The last two years could suggest the rate is accelerating, though this is not yet clear.

Before 1970 there was a period of slight global cooling due to a rapid increase in reflective aerosol particles being added to the atmosphere, also due to burning fossil fuels. The onset of clean air policies introduced in the 1960s in many western countries reduced this cooling influence. Before the second world war, natural variations in the climate dominated, with a very slow warming influence from early industrialisation.

Nor has the world warmed equally everywhere. Land has typically warmed faster than the global average, with ocean regions warming more slowly. The Arctic is warming fastest of all at up to four times the global average.

What is the outlook for 2025? Persistent warmth during the last two years has slightly surprised climate scientists. But it is more likely than not that 2025 will be cooler than 2024, given the transition to La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This is the cool phase of a natural cycle known as El Niño Southern Oscillation, or Enso.

And beyond? We will exceed 1.5°C of warming as a long-term average sometime in the next decade or so. Our choices in the next few years will determine whether we can limit global warming to 1.6°C or 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels, or whether the world will continue to warm, with more serious consequences the higher temperatures get.

Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?
Get our award-winning weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far. Läs mer…

The amount of aid reaching Gaza has fallen to an 11-month low according to Israeli figures. And the hijacking, by an armed Palestinian gang, of a convoy of 109 trucks on November 16 has exacerbated the situation. Food prices are soaring and parts of the enclave, where Israeli troops are battling Hamas fighters, are believed to be already experiencing famine.

The administration of outgoing US president, Joe Biden, has been consistent in its political and military support for Israel and its war against Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and of course Israel’s retaliatory strikes against Iran. But all the while Biden has urged moderation.

Speaking at the G20 this week, Biden repeated his message that “Israel has the right to defend itself after the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust” – but he stressed that “how it defends itself – even as Hamas cruelly hides among civilians – matters a great deal”.

Judging by the first appointments made by the US president-elect Donald Trump to his foreign policy team, the tone of US support for Israel is likely to change.

Trump’s pick for ambassador to Israel, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, has long been associated with the Christian evangelical right, which wholeheartedly supports Jewish sovereignty over the West Bank.

Huckabee made his position clear in a 2017 interview with CNN, saying: “There is no such thing as a West Bank. It’s Judea and Samaria [the territory’s biblical name]. There’s no such thing as a settlement. They’re communities, they’re neighbourhoods, they’re cities. There’s no such thing as an occupation.”

The proposed secretary of state, Republican senator Marco Rubio, is on the record as being against a ceasefire in Gaza. He told journalists recently that “I want them [Israel] to destroy every element of Hamas they can get their hands on. These people are vicious animals who did horrifying crimes.”

A month out from the election, on October 5, Biden appeared at a White House press briefing and commented on speculation that Netanyahu’s apparent unwillingness to agree a ceasefire was motivated by US politics: “Whether he’s trying to influence the election, I don’t know – but I’m not counting on that,” he said, adding that: “No administration has helped Israel more than I have. None, none, none,” he said. “And I think [Netanyahu] should remember that.”

Netanyahu must view the election result and Trump’s selection of strong supporters of his government as vindication of an approach that now sees Israel, militarily at least, in the ascendant. Israel’s offensive in northern Gaza shows no sign of slowing. And, as more and more people are forced southwards, a new motive for the continuing military operation appears to be coming into sight.

Pressure from the right

Many on the political right – including members of Netanyahu’s government – are now advocating for reoccupation of the north of the Gaza strip by Jewish settlers. These settlers regard the 2005 decision to evacuate the Gaza strip not just as a strategic mistake, but as “hillul hashem”, a blasphemy against God.

And, just as IDF outposts in the West Bank have often been the used as the sites for the construction of settlements, many now suspect a similar pattern will be repeated in at least the northern half of the Gaza strip as its 2 million Palestinian inhabitants are compressed ever more in an ever decreasing space.

For the two most notable Religious Zionists in Netanyahu’s government, interior minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, the election of Trump is the gift that will keep on giving. For them and their power base, full annexation of what they refer to as “Judea and Samaria” remains a mitzvah – a commandment that must be fulfilled if the long-awaited messianic era is to be hastened and their vision of Zionism realised.

In Trump, Smotrich and Ben Gvir believe they have the international backing to achieve this – regardless of the wider consequences for Israel’s claim to be both Jewish and democratic. For most observers, full annexation would effectively mark Israel as an apartheid state – unless full citizenship with equal political rights were to be conferred on all Palestinians. This is unlikely.

Netanyahu’s calculations

Netanyahu knows this. But the changing dynamics of Israel’s domestic politics means he is no longer so reliant on Smotrich and Ben-Gvir. The addition to his coalition of a small bloc under Gideon Sa’ar has given him a greater margin of support.

Recent polls also show his approval rating has rallied considerably since Israel’s incursion into Lebanon to take on Hezbollah. Along with a recent fillip in his poll ratings and an opposition that remains divided, Netanyahu appears to be in an unassailable position.

Mutual understanding: Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump at the White House for the signing of the Abraham Accords in September 202.
EPA-EFE/Gripas Yuri/pool

Still, he also knows that Trump is a transactional president elected on a platform to end US involvement in foreign conflicts. Netanyahu also knows that the Gaza conflict has – for now at least – put paid to any prospect of the normalisation of relations with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries, something that Trump counts as one of the foreign policy achievements of his first administration.

Calling Israel’s military actions in Gaza genocidal, Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman has made any moves towards a formal peace deal with Israel conditional on meaningful steps being taken by the Jewish state and its ally the US towards Palestinian statehood.

Netanyahu will know that any move in that direction would fracture his coalition. But he will also suspect that the Saudis and other Gulf monarchies will try to leverage the influence they also have in Washington to put diplomatic pressure on Trump.

Reading Trump’s intentions is not for the fainthearted. But even so, Netanyahu will think the incoming US president is likely to afford him a period of political grace to conclude his wars. Much, of course, remains uncertain. But as ever it will be the Palestinian people who bear the heaviest burden.

As well as lacking effective leadership in Gaza or on the West Bank, they can look forward to scant support from the Arab world. Now they face an Israeli premier in victory mode and the prospect of a US president prepared to go all the way to support him. Läs mer…

The bottled water market has seen explosive growth – up 73% over the last decade – making it one of the fastest-growing industries globally. However, this growth comes at a significant environmental cost. Plastic waste, greenhouse gas emissions from production and distribution, and the overexploitation of water resources all contribute to an escalating ecological crisis. Reducing reliance on bottled water is, therefore, an urgent challenge.

Public awareness of this issue has grown. A 2020 study by Futerra and OnePulse found that 80% of respondents were willing to change their habits to combat climate change, and 50% specifically considered cutting back on plastic use. Despite this, little attention has been given to communication strategies designed to reduce bottled water consumption.

The power of self-prophecies

Our research suggests that asking people questions about their future behaviour – a psychological effect known as a self-prophecy – may inspire meaningful change. In a study involving 269 participants in the United States, researchers investigated whether this tactic could reduce bottled water purchases.

Self-prophecies work by prompting individuals to predict their future actions (e.g., “Will you recycle your packaging?”). This triggers cognitive dissonance: the discomfort of recognising a gap between one’s values and behaviours. People often resolve this tension by adjusting their actions to align with their beliefs.

Guilt as a motivator

Our study uncovers the emotional mechanism that links self-prophecy prompts to pro-environmental actions, with anticipated guilt serving as the key driver. American social psychologist Leon Festinger, in his seminal work A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance, describes dissonance as a state of psychological discomfort that spurs behavioural change. While Festinger does not explicitly identify the nature of this discomfort, later theorists highlighted guilt as one of the emotions that dissonance can trigger under specific circumstances.

Building on this idea, we hypothesised that people anticipate guilt when they foresee themselves failing to engage in environmentally responsible actions, particularly when such behaviours align with their normative beliefs – social or cultural expectations of what constitutes appropriate behaviour. This anticipated guilt, we argue, motivates individuals to adopt eco-friendly practices to avoid experiencing the negative emotion.

To test this theory, we conducted an experiment measuring guilt in participants exposed to an advertisement featuring a prediction question designed to discourage bottled water purchases. Those who viewed the ad experienced higher levels of anticipated guilt compared to participants in a control group who saw an ad without the prediction element. Crucially, this guilt significantly reduced their intention to buy bottled water, demonstrating how emotional anticipation can influence behaviour.

Varying effects across individuals

We investigated two key factors that influence the effectiveness of self-prophecy techniques: normative beliefs and the motivations that drive people to act.

Research has long established the power of normative beliefs in shaping behaviour. People who strongly adhere to their beliefs are not only more likely to predict that they will act in accordance with them but also more likely to follow through. Our study delved into how different types of norms – descriptive (what most people do), injunctive (what is socially expected), and personal (internal moral standards) – affect intentions.

Our findings reveal that these three types of norms significantly influence feelings of anticipated guilt. Participants generally believed that reducing plastic bottle consumption was common, socially expected and aligned with their personal convictions. The stronger these norms, the more intense the anticipated guilt when participants considered non-compliance. However, the act of posing a prediction question did not amplify the salience of these norms during decision-making. This suggests that such questions do not inherently guide participants toward behaviour aligned with their normative beliefs.

We also examined approach motivation, the drive to seek positive experiences or rewards, measured through behavioral approach system (BAS) scores. Individuals with high scores are typically goal-oriented, pursuing both tangible rewards (e.g., acquiring objects) and abstract achievements (e.g., altruism). This heightened drive helps them actively close the gap between their personal objectives and actions.

When guilt and action don’t align

Surprisingly, our study found that individuals with lower sensitivity to rewards and less drive to seek positive experiences felt greater guilt than their more motivated counterparts. Why? These individuals, while less motivated to act, became acutely aware of the gap between their behaviours and personal norms when prompted by the prediction question. This awareness, despite their inertia, triggered a stronger sense of guilt, which in turn increased their intention to reduce plastic bottle use.

On the other hand, those with higher BAS scores seemed naturally adept at aligning their actions with their norms, minimising cognitive dissonance. Their proactive approach to achieving personal goals reduced the likelihood of experiencing guilt, as they had already taken steps to bridge the gap between their intentions and behaviours.

Using self-prophecies in environmental campaigns

Our study offers promising insights for environmental awareness efforts, suggesting that prediction-based questions can effectively encourage eco-friendly behaviours. This approach, easily adaptable by government agencies and NGOs, has the potential to make sustainability messaging more impactful.

Interestingly, the study did not find a connection between normative beliefs – what people perceive as socially accepted behaviours – and the success of self-prophecy techniques. Had such a link been observed, individuals with stronger normative beliefs might have adjusted their behaviours more significantly in line with societal norms. However, existing research consistently highlights the pivotal role of personal norms – deeply held beliefs about right and wrong – in shaping intentions and ecological actions.

We therefore recommend designing campaigns that emphasise personal responsibility and the consequences of inaction. For example, messages that underscore the urgency of environmental issues and the importance of individual contributions can amplify the effectiveness of self-prophecy interventions.

While the study primarily examined behavioural intentions rather than actual behaviours, previous research supports the long-term impact of self-prediction techniques on real-world actions. For instance, interventions have been shown to improve recycling rates over four weeks and boost gym attendance for up to six months. These findings underscore the power of a simple question to engage emotional drivers and inspire lasting sustainable practices. Läs mer…

Until now, COVID vaccines have been available to pregnant women as part of the twice-yearly booster programme, but this offer is being withdrawn.

The UK’s vaccine body, the Joint Committee for Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), has recommended that from spring 2025, pregnant women will no longer be eligible for free COVID vaccines. This is a concern for several reasons.

First, there is the direct vaccine benefit of reducing the chance of COVID infection and the consequences of infection in pregnancy. Pregnant women are at higher risk of severe COVID infection than women who are not pregnant, which can be significantly reduced by vaccination.

Severe COVID infection in pregnancy also carries risks for the unborn baby, including miscarriage and stillbirth. Although the risk with the currently circulating virus variants is lower, the risk remains to both mother and baby from COVID. The good news is that vaccination not only protects the mother should she be infected, but also reduces the risk of both very preterm birth and stillbirth for her baby.

Second, there is the indirect benefit of vaccination in pregnancy in protecting newborns in those vital early months. Infants do not have fully developed immune systems, and a COVID infection is their first time meeting the virus. As such, they are very vulnerable to COVID infections, as they are to other respiratory infections. (Thankfully, there are safe and effective vaccines for flu, whooping cough and respiratory syncytial virus RSV.)

COVID vaccines for children under the age of four (from the age of six months), while approved for use in the UK, are not, nor have been, made available – in contrast to countries such as the US.

A recent study, co-authored by one of us (Christina Pagel), looked at all hospitalisations in England of children with a COVID diagnosis or positive test between August 2020 and 2023. Admissions where COVID did not contribute to the reason for being in hospital (such as swallowing a toy or breaking a limb) were excluded.

Overall, infants accounted for 43% of all admissions in children under 18 (19,700 out of 45,900), rising to 64% of admissions in the most recent era as older children saw some benefit of “acquired immunity” (protection from having had a previous infection).

Of these admitted infants, only 10% had any underlying conditions that would normally be considered risk factors for severe COVID infection. While most infants were in hospital for only a short time – about two days – a significant minority required intensive care. For instance, between August 2022-23, about 5% needed intensive care and eight babies died.

A new study, which has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal, further categorised risks to different age groups for COVID hospital admissions in England. It showed that the risk for A&E attendance, hospital admission and severe hospital admission (requiring oxygen ventilation and hospitalisation for more than two days) was highest in babies under six months old – higher even than for people over 90 years old.

While much lower than for the youngest babies, the risk for babies aged six months to one year was also higher than most other age groups – comparable with adults in their 70s or 80s.

The good news is that babies can be protected from COVID in the first six months of life, if the mother has been recently vaccinated. This is because if the mother is vaccinated, she can pass on protective antibodies to the developing baby during pregnancy. These antibodies will wane over time, but if the mother is then able to breastfeed she can pass on antibodies that are found in breast milk.

These antibodies can make a massive difference. Data from the US showed that the overwhelming majority of infants hospitalised with COVID (95%) and all those who died from COVID were from unvaccinated mothers. It is for these reasons that vaccination against COVID during pregnancy has been recommended around the world, including in Ireland, the US and, until now, the UK.

Mothers can pass on antibodies to their babies in breast milk.
fStop Images/Alamy Stock Photo

JCVI’s workings not clear

It’s not clear how JCVI assessed the cost-effectiveness that has led to the change in recommendation to withdraw the COVID vaccine in pregnancy.

The cost-effectiveness model JCVI has been using for COVID vaccine decisions has only just been published, and is still in preprint form. JCVI’s criteria focus on preventing deaths, and the preprint only considered deaths in people 15 years and older, while the hospitalisation data used grouped children aged nought to four years. This age grouping masks the much higher vulnerability of very young babies that other papers have shown.

A further concern about the JCVI analysis is that it seems to prioritise preventing deaths above all other considerations. For its decision on pregnancy eligibility, the committee used unpublished data from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre, which shows that there were no deaths in pregnancy in the last 18 months. Although this is excellent news, this data does not appear to include consideration of miscarriage, stillbirth and health risks to the baby.

While, of course, death matters a lot, and pregnant mothers and babies very rarely die from COVID, hospitalisation and severe hospitalisation are nonetheless also important outcomes to avoid.

COVID remains at significant levels throughout the year. We would urge the JCVI to look at the wider data sets published on infant health as well as mortality and either revise its criteria on vaccination in pregnancy, or provide a much more detailed and transparent explanation for why it has been discontinued. Läs mer…

In recent years, armed conflicts have frequently made global headlines, but media coverage has largely focused on just a few highly publicised wars. These conflicts represent only the tip of the iceberg: more than 50 countries are currently suffering from shocking levels of armed violence, many of which receive little to no public attention. These include the ongoing violence in Sudan, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Myanmar, the Central African Republic and Yemen.

Many of these “forgotten wars” occur in countries with high poverty, significant interethnic inequalities and fragile states. Often, they are not sites of great power rivalry – one of the reasons they are largely “forgotten” by both the media and policymakers worldwide. Academia has not overlooked them, however: hundreds of recent studies examine policies that can make a real difference in such conflicts. As discussed in my new book, The Peace Formula: Voice, Work and Warranties, three factors have been found to matter most for sustainable peace.

Political representation, economic opportunity and security guarantees

First, a society must guarantee civil liberties and political representation for all regardless of ethnicity, gender, religion or sexual orientation. Excluded or discriminated-against groups are far more likely to form insurgent movements to challenge the state, whereas inclusive, power-sharing institutions are strongly associated with long-term peace and stability.

Second, the presence of a productive economy and a well-educated, healthy population with the means to earn a decent living are key. When opportunities are scarce and large segments of society are impoverished and desperate, they become easier prey for warlords or authoritarian leaders seeking to recruit fighters. Consequently, policies that strengthen education, healthcare and labour market access have a significant impact in promoting peace.

Third, security guarantees and robust state capacity are essential for implementing effective public policies and reducing the risk of coups or organised crime taking advantage of power vacuums. When citizens feel secure, state legitimacy is strengthened, making political and economic progress possible.

The war in Sudan

But even if one recognises these factors, the question remains: how can the international community enact positive change? Imposing regime change from outside typically backfires. However, when a reform window opens within a country and a well-intentioned government works toward positive change, it creates an opportunity for the international community to help. Substantial financial investment following the Marshall Plan model, along with support for emerging state capacities, can have a significant impact. UN peacekeeping forces have been shown to greatly enhance security, particularly for civilians.

These elements can make a crucial difference on the ground. Take the ongoing war in Sudan: after Omar al-Bashir’s autocratic regime ended in 2019, a window of opportunity for positive change briefly opened, leading to the initiation of a series of reforms under new prime minister Abdallah Hamdok. These included the obtainment of IMF financing, macroeconomic reforms and the removal of fuel subsidies. While the reforms aimed for fiscal stabilisation, they did not bring immediate relief to the economic hardship suffered by wide parts of the population, making it challenging to maintain lasting large-scale support for the government and its reforms. Also, the government never achieved full control over security and remained at the mercy of the military.

This period of transition to civilian rule was cut short in the fall of 2021, when a series of coups ushered in a new era of tension and violence. The situation deteriorated further in April 2023, when full-scale war broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, the army’s former paramilitary allies. This power struggle has reportedly killed tens of thousands of people, and there are now more than 14 million displaced people in Sudan or across its borders. The war continues with devastating intensity, and in recent days, reports have emerged of mass killings and sexual violence in villages in Al Jazirah state in eastern Sudan.

Protecting members of all ethnic groups

Stopping the fighting and finding a political solution is the top priority. Once an armistice is reached, a long-term roadmap for sustainable peace will be essential to ensure that the current humanitarian catastrophe never happens again. Ensuring a democratic voice for everyone is vital in any country, but it is especially critical in the context of Sudan, which has severe ethnic divisions and a history of ethnically motivated violence, with, among others, the Masalit people and other non-Arab communities in the Darfur region repeatedly targeted. The state has a duty to protect the lives and rights of all its inhabitants, and it is crucial to put everything possible in place to prevent ethnic cleansing.

An economy that generates sufficient jobs is important everywhere, but particularly in Sudan, where poverty remains high and not everyone benefits equally from natural resource windfalls. While the extraction of fossil fuels poses a significant risk of conflict and rent-seeking – both generally and in oil-rich Sudan – a robust economy that extends beyond the sector is crucial, as it offers important employment opportunities without the same negative side effects as fossil fuel extraction.

Once a future civilian government is established, the international community can provide large-scale financial help. An International Growth Centre report highlights great opportunities for domestically producing a wide range of imported goods, including food and textiles, as well as boosting exports.

In terms of exports, Sudan’s geographical position close to Egypt, Ethiopia and the Gulf States is a major asset. The diversification of exports, such as a range of agricultural commodities and livestock, holds significant potential, and value-added activities could be stepped up. Sudan is the world’s largest producer of gum arabic but only gets a dismal share of the value chain. With more processing activities, a bigger share of this market could be secured.

There must also be strong security guarantees that enable a civilian government to implement reforms and build state capacity without the threat of military coups. Not only could UN peacekeepers protect a civilian government from military takeovers, but they would also help safeguard all civilians, regardless of their ethnicity. Of course, a key challenge for the UN is to obtain large enough contingents of peacekeeping troops from member states. This highlights the paramount importance of international solidarity.

Foundations for peace

If there is a roadmap to pacifying forgotten wars, why hasn’t it been followed more often? One issue is that many politicians prioritise short-term objectives. Striking an unsustainable deal with a despot or winning the favour of a significant yet unsavoury regime may seem appealing to leaders, especially before an election campaign. It has been argued that al-Bashir, who ruled Sudan for decades, had only been able to cling to power due to foreign support.

In contrast, investing substantial resources to lay the groundwork for long-term peace in a country far from the spotlight may be seen as less politically advantageous. The full benefits of, for example, building schools or improving the health system accrue only after some time. While some leaders may genuinely care about doing good, many are more focused on doing well. To change this dynamic, scrutiny from local and global civil society, as well as public opinion, is essential to realign incentives for our leaders, shifting their focus from short-term gains to sustainable foundations for peace. Independent, high-quality media and engaged citizens can serve as catalysts for such positive change. Läs mer…

Oceans cover 71% of the Earth’s surface, but despite their immense size and impact on the planet, we know very little about them. While many of us might associate the sea with relaxing holidays on tropical beaches, the ocean is nothing but cold, dark and monotonous for most of the creatures that inhabit it.

The average depth of the ocean is 3.5km (the equivalent of crossing San Francisco’s Golden Gate bridge twice). Sunlight only penetrates up to 200 metres in crystal clear waters, and much less in murkier conditions. Beyond this depth, the world as terrestrial creatures know it ceases to exist, and life develops in total darkness. Welcome to the deep sea, the world’s largest ecosystem.

Deep, dark, and practically unknown

As well as being dark and massive, the deep sea is extremely difficult for humans to access, meaning it has remained almost completely unexplored. We don’t know about the majority of its life forms, nor the processes that take place there. In many cases, we don’t even know its depth with any certainty.

Faunal records collected at depths of more than 2000 m from 1900 to 2024.
OBIS

Despite this lack of information, the deep sea has caught the attention of global powers in recent years, mainly due to its abundance of natural resources that may one day become scarce on dry land, such as nickel and manganese.

The International Seabed Authority (ISA) was established in 1994 to regulate extraction of these resources, and to protect this environment in international waters – over 12 nautical miles from any country’s coast, the sea belongs to no one, and to everyone.

Logos of the ISA and Sustainable Seabed Knowledge Initiative (SSKI).

54% of the sea belongs to everyone

Based in Jamaica, the ISA is the organisation through which the states that signed the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) organise and control mineral-related activities in international waters for the benefit of all mankind.

This is not a straightforward task. The ISA has 170 members – 169 Member States and the European Union – and is responsible for no less than 54% of the area of the world’s oceans.

Moreover, international waters and their resources are counted as part of the common heritage of humanity, the same as the moon and any resources found there.

Information on the Area, the state of biodiversity and the role of the ISA.
https://www.isa.org.jm/sski/sski-did-you-know/

Searching for new species

One well-known 2012 study estimated that we have discovered approximately 200,000 marine species – around 24-34% of the total.

However, knowledge is not the uniform across all of the sea. Coastal and shallow waters have been much more thoroughly studied than the deep sea, and waters in the Northern Hemisphere are much better known than those in the Southern Hemisphere. For some areas, and for many types of fauna and flora, there are not even reliable estimates.

This lack of knowledge surrounding marine biodiversity in the deep sea – and its possible exploitation by mining interests – led the ISA to launch the Sustainable Seabed Knowledge Initiative (SSKI) in 2022.

This programme includes an unprecedented initiative within marine biology: the clear and ambitious goal of describing 1,000 new marine species in international waters by 2030.

SSKI projects and mud dragons

Describing these species will broaden knowledge of life on the seabed, and will help to understand and manage the possible impacts of human activity in deep sea ecosystems.

Scope of SSKI projects, and their expected results.

Following its first call in 2023, the response from the scientific community was overwhelmingly positive – 67 proposals were submitted from all over the world. Of these projects, nine were funded, dealing with the description of animal groups as varied as sharks, starfish and meiofauna. The last of these are very small animals studied by our research team at the Complutense University of Madrid.

Kinorhyncha, also known as a mud dragon (filo Kinorhyncha).
Photo: Diego Cepeda & Nicolas Gayet

The Spanish project focuses on the description of two phylum species (the most basic and broadest classification in the animal kingdom): kinorhyncha, or mud dragons, and the loricifera. These are two little-known categories with a very small number of experts dedicated to their study worldwide, so the potential for discovering new species is enormous.

This project hopes to describe up to eight new species from various areas of the deep ocean, from the Pacific Ocean to the Antarctic.

Why taxonomy matters for conservation

Taxonomy orders and classifies biological diversity, and it is one of the oldest and most basic scientific disciplines in existence. Despite this – or perhaps because of it – it has fewer and fewer people involved, and less and less support.

However, the description and classification of species is a funamental pillar for other disciplines with much broader social and economic implications, such as ecology and conservation. You cannot conserve without knowing what you are going to conserve, nor can you measure something’s impact without knowing what is affected by it.

This research has been supported by the International Seabed Authority’s Sustainable Seabed Knowledge Initiative: One Thousand Reasons Campaign (co-financed by the European Maritime, Fisheries and Aquaculture Fund, Project 101071214 – SSKI-I – EMFAF-2021-ISA-SSKI-IBA).

It is our hope that these 1,000 new marine species will be a step forward, both for deep ocean conservation and for public and scientific interest in taxonomy. Läs mer…