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The West Coast’s rainy season has arrived in force, as an atmospheric river carrying moisture from the tropics joins a bomb cyclone off the Pacific Northwest coast. Heavy, wet snow began falling in the mountains on Nov. 19, 2024, and bursts of rain have been blasting the Oregon and Northern California coasts. These storms are forecast to last for days, hitting up and down the West Coast. Parts of Washington have seen more than 70 mph winds from the bomb cyclone.

When these two phenomena get together, the weather gets hard to predict, as meteorologist Chad Hecht of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the University of California San Diego explains.

What happens when an atmospheric river meets a bomb cyclone?

An atmospheric river is exactly what it sounds like – it’s a long, narrow river of water vapor in the lower atmosphere. These rivers in the sky transport moisture from the subtropics to the mid-latitudes.

When an atmospheric river runs up against North America’s West Coast, the mountains and complex topography force the air to rise, cool, and the moisture to condense and precipitate. That can mean feet of snow at high elevations and rainfall elsewhere.

That’s not always a bad thing. Weaker atmospheric rivers help replenish reservoirs that are essential for supplying water during the dry season. California relies on atmospheric rivers for up to half of its yearly precipitation and streamflow.

This storm, however, is expected to be stronger and more unpredictable than unusual because of the bomb cyclone.

Atmospheric rivers explained.

Atmospheric rivers tend to form out ahead of cold fronts that are associated with low-pressure systems known as extratropical cyclones. These are air mass boundaries circulating around the area of low pressure. A bomb cyclone is a rapidly intensifying extratropical cyclone.

These two weather phenomena go hand in hand. A strong atmospheric river will feed moisture into the low-pressure system, providing fuel for the cyclone. The stronger the low-pressure system becomes, the stronger the atmospheric river becomes.

What will this combo mean for the West Coast?

This atmospheric river is impressive for its duration – it is forecast to continue hitting the coast with moisture for several days and may spread precipitation as far south as Southern California. Its integrated vapor transport – a measure of how much moisture is moving in the atmosphere – suggests that we’ll see a lot of rain and snowfall, with over a foot of precipitation expected in some areas.

On top of that, the bomb cyclone – one of the strongest we’ve seen along the coast – is bringing powerful winds.

While the atmospheric river is hitting the coast, the bomb cyclone will sit over the ocean off the Pacific Northwest and spin. As it spins, it sends small frontal waves through the atmosphere that push the atmospheric river inland. That creates a lot of uncertainty for forecasts.

If you picture the atmospheric river as a fire hose pointed at the coast, these frontal waves are essentially the fireman taking his hands off the fire hose and letting it go all wavy. It can move northward, and then back southward. The question is how far it will go before pivoting, then how quickly it will pivot back.

A forecast for the storm’s vertically integrated vapor transport shows the direction and magnitude of the water flow, measured in kilograms per meter per second.
Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes

So, how long specific parts of the coast will see rainfall and how intense that rainfall will be are the big questions.

The harder and longer it rains, the more impacts you’re likely to see.

The saving grace with this storm is that it’s early in the season, so the soils are relatively dry. That means they’ll be able to soak up more of the moisture. If a storm like this hit in winter, after the soils were already saturated, more water would run off, causing more widespread flooding than an early-season storm.

Are areas recently burned by wildfires in trouble?

With a storm this intense, the main concern in areas recently burned by wildfires is high-intensity precipitation.

When land burns, the surface can become impervious – almost hydrophobic. So, when that surface gets hit with high-intensity precipitation, the water runs off a lot faster than if vegetation or soil was able to absorb the water. Wildfire burn scars tend to be in hilly places, so that can lead to debris flows.

The forecast for the atmospheric river hitting the West Coast, covering Nov. 20-27, 2024, shows a powerful storm. Much of Northern California is expected to experience a Category 4 strength atmospheric river, on a scale of 1 to 5.
Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes

It’s really a matter of chance whether the burn scars get that intense precipitation. A strong cold front can form narrow cold-frontal rain bands that bring bursts of high-intensity rain. These small but powerful rain bands tend to form in dynamically robust storms. Meteorologists are seeing some signatures suggesting that these features could form.

The best advice if you’re in one of those areas is to pay attention to the National Weather Service’s watches and warnings.

Does this storm suggest a wet winter ahead?

Unfortunately, one really impressive storm doesn’t tell us anything about what’s ahead.

We’ve seen seasons with powerful early-season storms and then not much more. October 2021 is an example: A really strong storm hit that month, with record-breaking, 24-hour precipitation accumulations. But then the tap shut off, and California ended up with below-normal rainfall for the rest of the year.

An animation of satellite data shows how the atmospheric river draws moisture from the subtropics and is pushed toward the coast by the bomb cyclone.
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison

There are tools that offer some indication of whether the season will be above or below normal, but those aren’t 100% accurate.

For example, the La Niña weather pattern that’s close to forming in the Pacific typically indicates drier than normal conditions across California. But looking at the past 10 years, we’ve had some really wet La Niñas – 2017 being the granddaddy of them all, with record-breaking precipitation in the northern Sierra.

Meteorologists typically have a good sense of what’s coming in the short term, about 10 days out. But what the rest of the season will look like is really an educated guess at this point. Läs mer…

The West Coast’s rainy season has arrived in force, with an atmospheric river joining a bomb cyclone off the Pacific Northwest coast. Heavy, wet snow began falling in the mountains on Nov. 19, 2024, and rain has been blasting Oregon and Northern California, causing flooding and landslides in some areas. The atmospheric river was forecast to last for several days, hitting up and down the West Coast. Parts of Washington have seen more than 70 mph winds from the bomb cyclone.

When these two phenomena get together, the weather gets hard to predict, as meteorologist Chad Hecht of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the University of California, San Diego explains.

What happens when an atmospheric river meets a bomb cyclone?

An atmospheric river is exactly what it sounds like – it’s a long, narrow river of water vapor in the lower atmosphere. These rivers in the sky transport moisture from the subtropics to the mid-latitudes.

When an atmospheric river runs up against North America’s West Coast, the mountains and complex topography force the air to rise, cool, and the moisture to condense and precipitate. That can mean feet of snow at high elevations and rainfall elsewhere.

That’s not always a bad thing. Weaker atmospheric rivers help replenish reservoirs that are essential for supplying water during the dry season. California relies on atmospheric rivers for up to half of its yearly precipitation and streamflow.

This storm, however, is expected to be stronger and more unpredictable than unusual because of the bomb cyclone.

Atmospheric rivers explained.

Atmospheric rivers tend to form out ahead of cold fronts that are associated with low-pressure systems known as extratropical cyclones. These are air mass boundaries circulating around the area of low pressure. A bomb cyclone is a rapidly intensifying extratropical cyclone.

These two weather phenomena go hand in hand. A strong atmospheric river will feed moisture into the low-pressure system, providing fuel for the cyclone. The stronger the low-pressure system becomes, the stronger the atmospheric river becomes.

What will this combo mean for the West Coast?

This atmospheric river is impressive for its duration – it is forecast to continue hitting the coast with moisture for several days and spread precipitation into Southern California. Its integrated vapor transport – a measure of how much moisture is moving in the atmosphere – suggests that we’ll see a lot of rain and snowfall, with over a foot of precipitation expected in some areas.

On top of that, the bomb cyclone – one of the strongest we’ve seen along the coast – is bringing powerful winds.

While the atmospheric river is hitting the coast, the bomb cyclone will sit over the ocean off the Pacific Northwest and spin. As it spins, it sends small frontal waves through the atmosphere that push the atmospheric river inland. That creates a lot of uncertainty for forecasts.

If you picture the atmospheric river as a fire hose pointed at the coast, these frontal waves are essentially the fireman taking his hands off the fire hose and letting it go all wavy. It can move northward, and then back southward. The question is how far it will go before pivoting, then how quickly it will pivot back.

A forecast for the storm’s vertically integrated vapor transport shows the direction and magnitude of the water flow, measured in kilograms per meter per second.
Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes

So, how long specific parts of the coast will see rainfall and how intense that rainfall will be are the big questions.

The harder and longer it rains, the more impacts you’re likely to see.

The saving grace with this storm is that it’s early in the season, so the soils are relatively dry. That means they’ll be able to soak up more of the moisture. If a storm like this hit in winter, after the soils were already saturated, more water would run off, causing more widespread flooding than an early-season storm.

Are areas recently burned by wildfires in trouble?

With a storm this intense, the main concern in areas recently burned by wildfires is high-intensity precipitation.

When land burns, the surface can become impervious – almost hydrophobic. So, when that surface gets hit with high-intensity precipitation, the water runs off a lot faster than if vegetation or soil was able to absorb the water. Wildfire burn scars tend to be in hilly places, so that can lead to debris flows.

The forecast for the atmospheric river hitting the West Coast, covering Nov. 20-27, 2024, shows a powerful storm. Much of Northern California is expected to experience a Category 4 strength atmospheric river, on a scale of 1 to 5.
Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes

It’s really a matter of chance whether the burn scars get that intense precipitation. A strong cold front can form narrow cold-frontal rain bands that bring bursts of high-intensity rain. These small but powerful rain bands tend to form in dynamically robust storms. Meteorologists are seeing some signatures suggesting that these features could form.

The best advice if you’re in one of those areas is to pay attention to the National Weather Service’s watches and warnings.

Does this storm suggest a wet winter ahead?

Unfortunately, one really impressive storm doesn’t tell us anything about what’s ahead.

We’ve seen seasons with powerful early-season storms and then not much more. October 2021 is an example: A really strong storm hit that month, with record-breaking, 24-hour precipitation accumulations. But then the tap shut off, and California ended up with below-normal rainfall for the rest of the year.

An animation of satellite data shows how the atmospheric river draws moisture from the subtropics and is pushed toward the coast by the bomb cyclone.
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison

There are tools that offer some indication of whether the season will be above or below normal, but those aren’t 100% accurate.

For example, the La Niña weather pattern that’s close to forming in the Pacific typically indicates drier than normal conditions across California. But looking at the past 10 years, we’ve had some really wet La Niñas – 2017 being the granddaddy of them all, with record-breaking precipitation in the northern Sierra.

Meteorologists typically have a good sense of what’s coming in the short term, about 10 days out. But what the rest of the season will look like is really an educated guess at this point.

This article was updated Nov. 21, 2024, with landslides and flooding from the storm. Läs mer…

Stan’s new Christmas film Nugget is Dead is a colourful production that follows the rules of the seasonal genre film to a tee – with an Aussie twist and a dash of queer multiculturalism thrown in for good measure.

Most screenwriters refer to the Hallmark Channel as the generic yardstick of Christmas films. The US cable network pumps out dozens of tinsel-tinged offerings each year.

But what exactly are the rules of a Christmas movie? And how does Nugget is Dead fit in with the rest?

A cast stuffed with homegrown talent

Christmas movie screenwriting blogger and podcaster Caryn McCann has laid out the steps of the Christmas film formula, which can be applied to the case in point.

Step 1: choose a cute regional location situated a good distance from the big smoke. Christmas in Australia is, of course, in summer, so no snow-covered Midwest town for us. Instead, what better than an unnamed seaside location reminiscent of a less desirable version of Home and Away’s Summer Bay?

Step 2: find a key character who’s down on love. Enter struggling bisexual registrar Steph Stool (played by Vic Zerbst, who also cowrote the film). Steph’s swanky millennial boyfriend (Alec Snow) has it all, including a double-barrelled surname and an overbearing mum (Tara Morice) from Sydney’s North Shore. But their relationship is floundering at this crucial time of year.

Steph’s zany family, on the other hand, are on the more bogan end of the Australian social order. Notable mention goes to Steph’s OTT (over-the-top), recently separated parents, Jodie and John Stool (Gia Carides and Damien Garvey).

Vic Zerbst plays Steph Stool, with Gia Carides as her mother Jodie Stool.
Lisa Tomasetti

Meanwhile, cowriter Jenna Owen hurls herself into the fun role of ditzy eshay cousin Shayla, who probably gets the most laughs as a foil to Zerbst’s uptight Steph.

The film mostly plays out in the Stool brood’s hometown, but crosscuts to Steph’s boyfriend’s affluent family’s celebrations.

Comedy doubling as class commentary

When Steph is called back home to attend to her dying dog, the titular Nugget, she encounters Step 3: the love interest. In this case, the attractive distraction appears in the form of her poor pooch’s new vet, Ella Lander (Priscilla Doueihy), who quickly becomes enmeshed in the Stool way of life.

Steps 4 and 5 of the form involve the careful balancing of cheerful Christmas traditions alongside drama aplenty. True to form, Nugget is Dead has more than enough fruity pavlova, Christmas crackers and sizzling snags on the barbie.

There are no shortage of Christmas tropes in this film.
Lisa Tomasetti

These elements serve as a vital backdrops to several hectic – and silly – family barneys. I tip my festive headwear to emerging director Imogen McCluskey and director of photography Kate Cornish for capably managing dialogue-heavy scenes that include a large ensemble cast.

The humour in these sections comes from mix of comedic voices, as well as by contrasting ocker “realness” (and groan-worthy dad jokes) with urban upper-middle-class vapidity.

Director Imogen McCluskey experlty handles dialogue-heavy scenes featuring a large ensemble cast.
Lisa Tomasetti

Out with the old

The final steps of the Christmas movie formula come down to the hero, heroine or non-binary protagonist embracing the true spirit of the holiday season – and restoring his, her or their reliance on romance and family values. On this front, Nugget is Dead does not deviate.

The film has an endearing core message about being accepting of poeple’s differences, which helps to extend it away from the genre’s norm.

The film’s core message is about accepting poeple’s differences.
Julia Firak

In an Australian context, the film dabbles in the dreaded cultural cringe. I wasn’t sure if this was a deliberate wink to those in the know, or the result of trying to write for a wider audience and becoming a bit reductive in the process.

Nugget is Dead demonstrates the many ways in which our Christmas customs are becoming less white-bread and heteronormative.

Nugget is Dead is streaming on Stan from November 21. Läs mer…

In 1978, Ann Patty, a young, inexperienced editor for Pocket Books, was on the subway with her friend Humphrey Evans, who told her about an “awful and fabulous” 98-page manuscript he’d read that day, in his role as assistant to a literary agent.

Patty, intrigued by Evans’ description, came by his apartment later to pick the manuscript up. She stayed up until 2am reading it, then promptly phoned him, saying that it was “some sort of brilliant” and that she “must have it”. That manuscript would become Flowers in the Attic (1979) by V.C. Andrews, who was 56 when it was published.

Initial reviews were not kind – one described it as “deranged swill”. But the book quickly became a runaway success, selling almost three million copies in its first year of publication.

Sensing they had a hit on their hands, Pocket Books quickly solicited a sequel. Petals on the Wind came out a year later and topped the New York Times mass-market paperback bestseller list. So too did the next two books in what became known as the Dollanganger series: If There Be Thorns (1981) and Seeds of Yesterday (1984).

Flowers in the Attic was adapted as a 1987 telemovie starring Louise Fletcher (One Flew Over the Cuckoos’ Nest’s Nurse Ratched) as the evil grandmother and Kristy Swanson (the original Buffy the Vampire Slayer) as Cathy Dollanganger, the story’s narrator. It was adapted again in 2014.

The original Flowers in the Attic telemovie (1987) starred Louise Fletcher, Victoria Tennant and Kristy Swanson.

It has been 45 years since Flowers in the Attic was published, but it still looms large in the minds of many. As Tammy Oler wrote for Slate, “we are clearly not over Flowers in the Attic. For women of my generation, Cathy Dollanganger’s story continues to possess a weird, singular power.”

Murderous mothers and dubious consent

Flowers in the Attic is the story of, as a once “obsessed” Roxane Gay puts it: “Wealth! Children! An attic turned into a playground! Evil grandmother and eviler mother! Incest!”

The narrator, Cathy, is the second of the four Dollanganger siblings. When their father is killed in a car accident, their mother Corrine is unable to support the family. She was disinherited by her wealthy father Malcolm upon her marriage – and so now, Corrine decides, her only hope is return to her childhood home, Foxworth Hall, and try to get herself reinstated into his will.

There’s a catch, though. Malcolm does not know Corrine has children. When she and the children arrive at Foxworth Hall, she hides them away in the attic, assuring them they will only have to be there for a few days.

In the end, though, the four Dollanganger children – Cathy, her older brother Christopher, and their younger twin siblings Cory and Carrie – are locked in the attic for three years. During this time, Cathy and Chris become surrogate parents to the twins, which eventually culminates in the novel’s most notorious moment: an incestuous sexual encounter, in which Cathy’s consent is dubious at best, although she later assures Chris, “I could have stopped you if I’d really wanted to.”

V.C. Andrews.
Wikipedia

An intensely claustrophobic book, Flowers in the Attic owes a lot to pulp Gothic novels. Typified by authors like Victoria Holt and Phyllis Whitney, these books were usually about young women trapped in mysterious houses with frightening men, a form Joanna Russ famously summed up with the phrase, “Someone’s trying to kill me, and I think it’s my husband.”

In Flowers in the Attic, though, the menace comes not from a husband (despite what happens between Cathy and Chris) but from older female relatives. Their primary jailer is their grandmother, who frequently addresses them as “devil’s spawn”. She is regularly cruel to them, and occasionally starves them. In one memorable scene, she covers Cathy’s blonde hair with tar.

Their mother, though, is ultimately even more menacing. As time passes, she visits the children less and less. After one bout of starvation, they start to receive sugar-covered doughnuts in their food. Soon afterwards, all four children start to become ill, which culminates in one of them dying.

Cathy and Chris realise the doughnuts have been laced with arsenic – and while they initially blame their grandmother, they later realise that their mother was actually responsible. (“I still cannot eat powdered donuts and am very suspicious of all white powdery substances,” wrote Gay in 2013.)

‘I still cannot eat powdered donuts,’ says Roxane Gay, referring to a horrific element of the novel.
Unaizat/AAP

This shift, where the menacing husband of the pulp Gothic became the Dollangangers’ mother and grandmother, was arguably key to the appeal of the book to younger audiences. What is a more teenage experience, after all, than feeling unfairly oppressed and imprisoned by your family?

Indeed, that feeling may have come from Virginia (“V.C.”) Andrews’ own life: “When I wrote Flowers in the Attic, all of Cathy’s feelings about being in prison were my feelings,” Andrews told an interviewer in 1985.

Progressive arthritis had left her limited in terms of movement. A wheelchair user, she was largely dependent on her mother, who her biographer Andrew Neiderman describes as controlling. Her editor Patty, though, was more circumspect. “You could say that Virginia is locked in the attic and her mother is the grandmother,” Patty said. “But she seemed normal.”

According to her sister-in-law, Joan Andrews, the money Virginia made from her books enabled her to become more independent, buying her own home, a computer to write on, and a van that accomodated her wheelchair. “She became very mobile and loved getting out and about,” Joan told Buzzfeed.

The thrill of the forbidden

Flowers in the Attic was not originally marketed to teens. Like most pulp Gothics, it was published as a mass-market paperback, a form Patty described as “cheap editions not meant to endure, not intended for review, often selling in the hundreds of thousands but utterly unknown to the sophisticated, literary reader”.

Given this, it would have been easy for the book to completely disappear into the wilds of literary history, never to be thought of again. But a few things worked in its favour.

goodreads

Firstly, it was published in the heyday of mass-market paperbacks. In the same year Flowers in the Attic was published, paperback rights for Judith Krantz’s novel Princess Daisy – which, coincidentally, also centres on a heroine raped by her brother at age 15 – were sold for a record $3.2 million: an indication of the paperback market boom of the time.

Secondly, Flowers in the Attic almost accidentally became a lead title for Pocket Books, due to a lack of any reprints of major hardcover bestsellers coming out in the month of its publication. This meant it received a much more substantial marketing push than it would have otherwise.

Thirdly, it benefited substantially from its iconic cover, which, due to said marketing push, featured in a lot of bookshop displays. The cover shows a heavily foiled image of a house with a keyhole cut-out over the attic window. Through the window, Cathy’s face is visible, but when the cover is opened, all four Dollanganger children are revealed.

The wholehearted embrace of the book by younger readers, however, was fundamental to its success. It combined a particularly teen-resonant form of the pulp Gothic with the scandal and taboo of more explicit books like Princess Daisy.

All of this contributed to a feeling that it was a book young people should not be reading, that even knowing about it was illicit and forbidden.

Of course, this just made them want to read it even more.

A style icon

Whether or not V.C. Andrews was a “good” writer is up for debate. Plenty of critics have derided her books – but those books have also clearly struck a chord with many, who still remember them very well, many decades later.

What she certainly was, though, was a distinctive writer. “It may be awful, but it is a style,” Patty said when defending the book to Pocket’s sales manager.

Neiderman, Andrews’ biographer, became her ghostwriter after she died of breast cancer in 1986. He studied that style intently and is still publishing books under her name.

She was also clearly an impactful writer. Andrews has influenced many other authors: (including, but not limited to, Gillian Flynn).

Decades after its publication, Flowers in the Attic in particular has proved to be iconic. It holds an enormous place in the collective cultural memory of people who read it growing up: even if all they remember is that “the brother and sister do it”. Läs mer…

An enduring challenge facing science around the world is how to best include and engage Indigenous communities.

In Australia, for example, 0.5% of Indigenous peoples held a university STEM (science, technology, engineering and maths) qualification in 2021, compared to 4.9% of the Australian population. Studies have also shown that while researchers are increasingly engaging Indigenous communities, they often do so disrespectfully and with a lack of goodwill.

Addressing this challenge was the focus of a research summit I attended earlier this month.

The Tri-Academy Partnership on Indigenous Engagement: A Research Summit on Cultural Heritage in an Era of Reconciliation was the first of three annual events bringing together academics from Canada, Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand. It showed how the scientific community can be more inclusive – and how increased Indigenous engagement and participation will benefit everybody.

Leading minds from across the world

Leading Indigenous academics from all three nations attended the summit. They gave talks on topics such as the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, Indigenous leadership in academic institutions and the role of Indigenous engagement in expanding and improving research and education.

Many of the issues Indigenous academics raised at the summit were common to all three nations.

We heard of structural issues such as lack of recognition and protection of Indigenous Cultural Intellectual Protocols. We also heard about the problem of research being about us but without us and the barriers to increasing the number of Indigenous academics.

One of these barriers is the historical erasure and suppression of Indigenous cultures and their associated knowledges. Another is the education pipeline: only 68% of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders aged 20–24 have completed Year 12 or equivalent. A third barrier is the cultural safety for both university students and staff.

These barriers were highlighted by deeply personal stories shared throughout the summit, including from residential school survivors and academics who had experienced racism in their workplace.

Fundamentally these issues are all rooted in the same thing: the significant power imbalance between Indigenous communities and the academic community seeking to engage them.

This has resulted in previous engagement being a purely extractive process. Researchers have taken knowledge from Indigenous communities, without giving anything back. This has eroded trust.

There is movement to improve engagement by moving from projects done “on us” to projects done “with us” and “by us”. But achieving this goal will require long-term, strategic engagement of Indigenous communities to move from merely nice-to-have representation to genuine partnership.

It will take time to rebuild that trust. And it may require non-Indigenous researchers to spend years simply sitting with and listening to Indigenous communities.

Mutual benefits

But even though it may take time, this is worthwhile work.

For communities with genuine partnership and benefit sharing, engagement with academia and the learned academies could meaningfully uplift communities.

For example, Indigenous-led organisation Trioda Wilingi employs Indigenous people at all levels and is working with scientists from the University of Queensland to produce medical gels from spinifex grass. These gels can treat painful conditions such as arthritis.

For academia, Indigenous communities hold a great depth and breadth of knowledge which is recognised in Australia’s Science and Research Priorities. It can improve our lives and better connect us with the places we live.

A mountain to climb

As the summit began, we heard of the passing of the First Nations Canadian politician and lawyer the Honourable Murray Sinclair. His presence looms large in matters of Indigenous engagement – he chaired the Indian Residential Schools Truth and Reconciliation Commission in Canada.

Thanks to his extensive work in this area, his presence and words echoed through every talk and panel. The most notable are two quotes from his time chairing the commission. One describes the commission’s work:

We have described for you a mountain. We have shown you the way to the top. We call upon you to do the climbing.

The second quote reflects on the role of education in reconciliation:

Education got us into this mess, and education will get us out of it.

These are statements that reverberate across the three nations that took part in the summit. They highlight the ongoing issues in the engagement of the learned academies and academia more broadly with Indigenous peoples.

Transformational education

There is still a mountain to climb – and education remains key.

But to overcome history, education must be developed in the communities’ interests with their voices at the table to create genuinely transformational education.

For the academic sector – and society more broadly – education is key to understanding why climbing the mountain is important.

Hampering the climb is easy, but it doesn’t make the mountain disappear.

The summit in Vancouver was supported by the Royal Society of Canada, the Australian Academy of Science, and the Royal Society Te Apārangi (Aotearoa New Zealand). There will be another summit next year in Aotearoa New Zealand. The final one will be in 2026 in Australia. Läs mer…

Cricket originated in England, but has been spread worldwide by British soldiers and settlers in the past few hundred years.

It is now the second most popular sport in the world in terms of number of fans, after soccer.

This spread has been most successful in the Indian sub-continent, which is now considered the epicentre of world cricket.

This region includes countries such as Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

According to the International Cricket Council (ICC), 90% of the world’s cricket fans are from the sub-continent.

History of cricket in the Indian sub-continent

Cricket was introduced to the Indian sub-continent by sailors and traders from the East India Company in the early 18th century.

The first recorded cricket match in this region was played between British sailors in western India in 1721.

Introducing English sports and traditions was intended to assert British dominance and cultural superiority. However, Indian elites embraced cricket as a way to gain favour with their rulers.

Over time, cricket became popular with the entire population.

Modern popularity

Cricket is now the most popular sport in countries such as India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and Afghanistan.

Cricket matches between India and Pakistan are considered one of the biggest sporting events in the world, and are regularly watched by nearly half a billion fans.

While cricket is also very popular in other successful cricketing nations such as Australia, South Africa and the United Kingdom, it does not enjoy the same unrivalled status as it does in the Indian sub-continent.

Cricket as religion

Cricket is now a hugely important part of the region’s culture and identity.

It has the ability to cut across regional, ethnic, social class and religious divides, and unite countries in a way no other sport or cultural institution can.

Indeed, cricket has been described as a religion, particularly in India where it brings people of all faiths and backgrounds together.

While politicians and religious leaders in the region have used the popularity of cricket to their advantage, “cricket diplomacy” has also been used to cool tensions and diplomatic issues, particularly between India and Pakistan.

It even has the power to temporarily stop civil wars. In 2007, the Tamil Tigers militant group declared a ceasefire with the government of Sri Lanka for the duration of the Cricket World Cup.

Why is cricket so popular?

Cricket can be played anywhere. In large South Asian cities, it is often played in cramped spaces such as rooftops, markets and busy streets.

Variations such as “tape ball cricket” and “street cricket” mean players can simply use a rubbish bin, milk crate, or marks on a wall as the wickets.

The bat can be a stick, and a rubber or tennis ball can be taped to ensure it deviates in the air to make things more challenging for a batter.

Games of cricket can be seen just about anywhere on the Indian sub-continent.

This softer ball means equipment such as pads and helmets are not needed.

Many of South East Asia’s cricket legends such as Wasim Akram and Sachin Tendulkar first honed their skills in chaotic street games that required quick reflexes and improvisation.

Winning the Cricket World Cup in 1983 (India), 1992 (Pakistan), 1996 (Sri Lanka) and 2011 (India) made cricketers heroes and role models for new generations.

A lack of success in other sports – except India and Pakistan in hockey, particularly during the 20th century – means cricket has little competition for the hearts of sports fans in the region.

Media momentum

Huge media coverage and sponsorship across the sub-continent has ensured significant money and resources have been invested back into cricket.

For instance, the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) has previously earned billions of dollars over a five year period from lucrative television rights.

Much of this money is from the Indian Premier League – a Twenty20 competition that has quickly become the biggest cricket league in the world.

Similar successful (but not as profitable) T20 competitions have been set up in countries such as Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

The majority of the ICC’s revenue now comes from India. Consequently, the BCCI has increasing control over the ICC and its decisions.

Additionally, India will be given 38.5% of the ICC’s profits in the 2024-2027 cycle – 105 nations will share the other 61.5%.

The BCCI have invested their profits in cricket stadium upgrades, centres of excellence and world class training staff .

While these investments help build future cricket pathways and facilities for the next generation of aspiring Indian cricketers, the ICC profit split has been criticised for making the richest countries richer and missing the chance to grow the game in other countries.

What about women’s cricket?

Cricket has the potential to be even more popular in the region if it embraces gender equality. One example of this would be Afghanistan, if the Taliban lifts its current ban on women playing cricket.

Countries such as Australia have refused to play men’s cricket matches against Afghanistan until conditions for women and girls improve.

Female cricketers in the Indian sub-continent often have to deal with barriers such as reduced funding and salaries, death threats, sexism and conservative gendered expectations.

However, the success of women’s teams has resulted in increased acceptance of women’s cricket in the Indian sub-continent in recent years.

Notable recent initiatives include the BCCI launching a successful women’s T20 competition in 2023. The recent ICC T20 World Cup was the first time women received the same prize money as their male counterparts.

These decisions align with the ICC prioritising the growth of the women’s game.

Continued popularity and growth

The deep passion for the game and continued success of teams from the Indian sub-continent is likely to ensure cricket’s continued popularity.

Cricket is also growing in popularity in countries like the United States, thanks to large Indian communities – in fact, the US co-hosted the 2024 T20 World Cup.

The addition of cricket to the Los Angeles Olympic program in 2028, should ensure that sub-continent cricket fans support the popularity of cricket in the years ahead. Läs mer…

When spring arrives, so do warnings about thunderstorm asthma. But a decade ago, most of us hadn’t heard of it.

So where did thunderstorm asthma come from? Is it a new phenomenon?

In 2016, the world’s most catastrophic thunderstorm asthma event took Melbourne by surprise. An increase in warnings and monitoring is partly a response to this.

But there are also signs climate change may be exacerbating the likelihood of thunderstorm asthma, with more extreme weather, extended pollen seasons and a rise in Australians reporting hay fever.

A landmark catastrophe

The first time many Australians heard of thunderstorm asthma was in November 2016, when a major event rocked Melbourne.

During a late night storm, an estimated 10,000 people were rushed to hospitals with severe asthma attacks. With thousands of calls on emergency lines, ambulances and emergency departments were unprepared to handle the rapid increase in people needing urgent medical care. Tragically, ten of those people died.

This was the most catastrophic thunderstorm asthma event in recorded history and the first time deaths have ever occurred anywhere in the world.

In response, the Victorian Department of Health implemented initiatives, including public awareness campaigns and improvements to health and emergency services, to be ready for future thunderstorm asthma events.

A network of pollen monitoring stations was also set up across the state to gather data that helps to predict future events.

A problem for decades

While this event was unexpected, it wasn’t the first time we’d had thunderstorm asthma in Australia – we’ve actually known about it for decades.

Melbourne reported its first instance of thunderstorm asthma back in 1984, only a year after this phenomenon was first discovered in Birmingham in the United Kingdom.

Thunderstorm asthma has since been reported in other parts of Australia, including Canberra and New South Wales. But it is still most common in Melbourne. Compared to any other city (or country) the gap is significant: over a quarter of all known events worldwide have occurred in Melbourne.

Why Melbourne?

Melbourne’s location makes it a hotspot for these kinds of events. Winds coming from the north of Melbourne tend to be dry and hot as they come from deserts in the centre of Australia, while winds from the south are cooler as they come from the ocean.

When hot and cool air mix above Melbourne, it creates the perfect conditions for thunderstorms to form.

Northern winds also blow a lot of pollen from farmlands into the city, in particular grass pollen. This is not only the most common cause of seasonal hay fever in Melbourne but also a major trigger of thunderstorm asthma.

Why grass pollen?

There’s a particular reason grass pollen is the main culprit behind thunderstorm asthma in Australia. During storms there is a lot of moisture in the air. Grass pollen will absorb this moisture, making it swell up like a water balloon.

If pollen absorbs too much water whilst airborne, it can burst or “rupture,” releasing hundreds of microscopic particles into the air that can be swept by powerful winds.

Normally, when you breathe in pollen it gets stuck in your upper airway – for example, your nose and throat. This is what causes typical hay fever symptoms such as sneezing or runny nose.

But the microscopic particles released from ruptured grass pollen are much smaller and don’t get stuck as easily in the upper airway. Instead, they can travel deep into your airways until they reach your lungs. This may trigger more severe symptoms, such as wheezing or difficulty breathing, even in people with no prior history of asthma.

A grass pollen rupturing.
Kira Hughes/Supplied, CC BY

So who is at risk?

You might think asthma is the biggest risk factor for thunderstorm asthma. In fact, the biggest risk factor is hay fever.

Up to 99% of patients who went to the emergency department during the Melbourne 2016 event had hay fever, while a majority (60%) had no prior diagnosis of asthma.

Every single person hospitalised was allergic to at least one type of grass pollen. All had a sensitivity to ryegrass.

Is thunderstorm asthma becoming more common?

Thunderstorm asthma events are rare, with just 26 events officially recorded worldwide.

However there is evidence these events could become more frequent and severe in coming years, due to climate change. Higher temperatures and pollution could be making plants produce more pollen and pollen seasons last much longer.

Extreme weather events, including thunderstorms, are also expected to become more common and severe.

In addition, there are signs rates that hay fever may be increasing. The number of Australians reporting allergy symptoms have risen from 15% in 2008 to 24% in 2022. Similar trends in other countries has been linked to climate change.

Read more:
Why do I have hay fever? I didn’t have it as a child

How can I prepare?

Here are three ways you can reduce your risk of thunderstorm asthma:

stock up on allergy medication and set up an asthma action plan with your GP
check daily pollen forecasts for the estimated pollen level and risk of a thunderstorm asthma event in your local area
on days with high pollen or a high risk of thunderstorm asthma, spend less time outside or wear a surgical face mask to reduce your symptoms. Läs mer…

What happens to your clothes after you don’t want them any more? Chances are, you will donate them to op shops run by a charity organisation.

There are more and more clothes in circulation, and they are getting cheaper and lower quality. That means the clothes you give away are worth less and less. For charities, this means donated clothes are less gift, more rubbish.

Our new research explores what happens to clothes and other textiles after we don’t want them across nine cities in Europe, North America and Australia. The pattern was the same in most cities. The sheer volume is overwhelming many shops. In Geneva, donations to charity shops have surged 1,200% in three decades, from 250  tonnes in 1990 to 3,000  tonnes in 2021. Worldwide, we now dump 92 million tonnes of clothes and textiles a year, double the figure of 20 years earlier.

There’s less and less value in managing these clothes locally. As a result, charities are forced to send more clothes to landfill – or sell bale after bale of clothing to resellers, who ship them to nations in the Global South.

Local governments usually handle other waste streams. But on clothes and textiles, they often leave it to charitable organisations and commercial resellers. This system is inherited from a time when used clothing was a more valuable resource, but the rising quantity of clothing has pushed this system towards collapse.

From January, all EU states have to begin rolling out collection services for used textiles. But in Australia and the United States there are no moves to do the same – even though these two countries consume the most textiles per capita in the world. As we work towards creating circular economies, where products are continually reused, this will have to change.

Textile waste next to charity bins in Lisbon, Portugal.
Author provided, Author provided (no reuse)

Textile waste is a new problem

Historically, textiles were hard to make and hence valuable. They were used for as long as possible and reused as rags or other purposes before becoming waste. These natural fibres would biodegrade or be burned for energy.

But synthetic fibres and chemical finishings have made more and more clothes unable to biodegrade. Fast fashion – in which high fashion trends are copied and sold at low cost – is only possible because of synthetic fibers such as polyester.

These clothes are often worn for a brief period and then given or thrown away.

What happens to this waste? To find out, we looked at textile waste in Amsterdam, Austin, Berlin, Geneva, Luxembourg, Manchester, Melbourne, Oslo and Toronto. In eight of these cities, charities and commercial resellers dealt with the lion’s share of clothing waste. But in Amsterdam, local governments manage the problem.

Across the nine cities, most donated clothes go not to charity shops shelves but to export. In Oslo, 97% of clothes are exported.

The flood of clothes is producing strange outcomes in some places. In Melbourne, charities are now exporting higher quality secondhand clothes to Europe. But we found this forces independent secondhand clothing outlets to import similar clothes back from Europe or the US.

Textile waste piles up in Oslo, Norway.
Author provided, Author provided (no reuse)

Charity organisations usually export the clothes across the Global South. But shipping container loads of secondhand clothes and textiles can do real damage environmentally. Clothing that can’t be sold becomes waste. In Ghana, there are now 20-metre-high hills made of clothing waste. Synthetic clothes clog up rivers, trap animals and spread plastics as they break apart. This practice has been dubbed “waste colonialism”.

Uganda has recently banned imports. The secondhand clothing export industry provides work, but its social and environmental impacts have been devastating.

What should we do?

At present, charities and resellers are struggling with managing the rising volume of donations, but they have little room to change. Exporting excess clothing is getting less profitable, but moving to local sorting and resale would be even less so due to higher costs and too many clothes collected relative to demand for secondhand items.

These clothes are disposed of by consumers who live in cities in wealthier countries. The actions city leaders take can reduce the problem globally, such as encouraging residents to buy fewer new clothes and boosting local reuse, repair and recycling efforts.

Charity shops are inundated with fast fashion donations.
triocean/Shutterstock

We are already seeing seeing grassroots initiatives emerging in all nine studied cities promoting local reuse and repair, with some receiving government support and others operating independently.

To make real change, municipal governments will have to take on a larger role. At present, municipal governments in most of the cities we studied have limited roles, ranging from sending clothing waste to landfill to sharing data on clothing recycling bins, letting charities and resellers set up collection points and supporting repair and swapping.

Here are three ways local governments could take the lead:

1. Curb overconsumption

Dealing with waste is a major role for municipal governments, and comes with major costs. To reduce clothing waste, cities could launch campaigns against overconsumption by focusing on the environmental damage done by fast fashion – or even banning ads for clothing retailers in city centres.

2. Boost reuse

Local governments could stop charging charities for the right to collect clothing and instead offer compensation for every kilo of collected textiles to help replace the money they get from sending clothing bales to resellers for export. Cities can also train and support circular economy practitioners, such as those involved in repair and upcycling.

3. Reduce exports of clothing waste

City leaders could reduce textile exports by recognising them as a waste stream and including textiles in their waste management planning.

One thing is certain – if we keep going as we are, flows of clothing waste will only grow, leading to more waste locally – and greatly increase the waste problem overseas. Läs mer…

As America takes stock after Donald Trump’s re-election to the presidency, it’s worth highlighting the AI-generated fake photos, videos and audio shared during the campaign.

A slew of fake videos and images shared by Trump and his supporters purported to show his opponent, Kamala Harris, saying or doing things that did not happen in real life.

Of particular concern are deepfake videos, which are edited or generated using artificial intelligence (AI) and depict events that didn’t happen. They may appear to depict real people, but the scenarios are entirely fictitious.

Microsoft warned in late October that:

Russian actors continue to create AI-enhanced deepfake videos about Vice President Harris. In one video, Harris is depicted as allegedly making derogatory comments about former President Donald Trump. In another […] Harris is accused of illegal poaching in Zambia. Finally, another video spreads disinformation about Democratic vice president nominee Tim Walz, gaining more than 5 million views on X in the first 24 hours.

AI has enabled the mass creation of deepfake videos, which poses a threat to democratic processes everywhere.

If left unchallenged, political deep fake videos could have profound impacts on Australian elections.

It’s getting harder to spot a deepfake

Images have stronger persuasive power than text. Unfortunately, Australians are not great at spotting fake videos and images.

The prevalence of deepfakes on social media is particularly concerning, given it is getting harder to identify which videos are real and which are not.

Studies suggest people can accurately identify deepfake facial images only 50% of the time (akin to guessing) and deepfake faces in videos just 24.5% of the time.

AI-based methods for detection are marginally better than humans. However, these methods become less effective when videos are compressed (which is necessary for social media).

As Australia faces its own election, this technology could profoundly impact perceptions of leaders, policies, and electoral processes.

Without action, Australia could become vulnerable to the same AI-driven political disinformation seen in the US.

Deepfakes and disinformation in Australia

When she was home affairs minister, Clare O’Neil warned technology is undermining the foundations of Australia’s democratic system.

Senator David Pocock demonstrated the risks by creating deepfake videos of both Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

The technology’s reach extends beyond federal politics. For example, scammers successfully impersonated Sunshine Coast Mayor Rosanna Natoli in a fake video call.

We’ve already seen deepfakes already in Australian political videos, albeit in a humorous context. Think, for example, of the deepfake purporting to show Queensland premier Steven Miles, which was released by his political opponents.

While such videos may seem harmless and are clearly fabricated, experts have raised concerns about the potential misuse of deepfake technology in future.

As deepfake technology advances, there is growing concern about its ability to distort the truth and manipulate public opinion. Research shows political deepfakes create uncertainty and reduce trust in the news.

The risk is amplified by microtargeting – where political actors tailor disinformation to people’s vulnerabilities and political views. This can end up amplifying extreme viewpoints and distort people’s political attitudes.

Not everyone can spot a fake

Deepfake content encourages us to make quick judgments, based on superficial cues.

Studies suggest some are less susceptible to deepfakes, but older Australians are especially at risk. Research shows a 0.6% decrease in deepfake detection accuracy with each year of age.

Younger Australians who spend more time on social media may be better equipped to spot fake imagery or videos.

But social media algorithms, which reinforce users’ existing beliefs, can create “echo chambers”.

Research shows people are more likely to share (and less likely to check) political deepfake misinformation when it shows their political enemies in a poor light.

With AI tools struggling to keep pace with video-based disinformation, public awareness may be the most reliable defence.

Deepfakes are more than just a technical issue — they represent a fundamental threat to the principles of free and fair elections. Läs mer…

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese didn’t see this coming. At the global COP29 climate talks in Baku, the Australian government was indirectly criticised by two allies, the United States and the United Kingdom, over its refusal to sign onto the goal of tripling nuclear power globally by 2050.

The UK’s original press release said Australia was “expected” to sign on to the nuclear push, under the umbrella of a long-running nuclear research pact known as the Gen IV Forum. Australia signed up to this pact in 2016, under a previous government, and in 2021 signed onto the AUKUS security pact to procure nuclear submarines from the US. This is perhaps why UK leaders assumed Australia would back the broader push to promote nuclear power around the world.

Not so. While Australia has signed up for nuclear submarines, it has not made any effort to adopt nuclear power. But nuclear power is shaping up as a major election issue, with the Coalition pushing for Australia to go nuclear and Labor pointing out the improbable economics of nuclear in a sun and wind rich country.

“As Australia does not have a nuclear energy industry, and nuclear power [is] illegal domestically, we will not be signing up to this agreement,” a government spokesperson said.

Nuclear or solar? Australia’s calculations are different to other nations.
Yuri Hoyda/Shutterstock

What exactly is this nuclear initiative?

The US and UK initiative announced at Baku is intended to supersede the Generation IV Forum set up in 2001 to produce designs for fourth-generation nuclear reactors and eventually replace the Gen III designs currently running in many countries. More than 20 years later, there is only one prototype Gen IV reactor, which began operating in China this year. Plans for a larger successor appear to have been shelved for the moment.

The US and UK have had nuclear power since the late 1950s. But the goal of tripling nuclear capacity in 25 years is wildly unrealistic, certainly as far as the US and UK are concerned.

In 2023, about 9% of the world’s electricity came from the roughly 400 nuclear reactors producing power. In recent years, nuclear growth has been concentrated in Asia – especially China, which has 30 reactors under construction – followed by Russia and Eastern Europe. Tripling the world’s nuclear power output would be a herculean feat.

Since the US completed the Vogtle plant in 2023, years behind schedule and billions over budget, there have been no commercial nuclear plants under construction in the country. A handful of proposals approved during the much-touted “nuclear renaissance” of the early 2000s could in theory be commenced, but there is no sign of that happening. The idea of building any substantial number of plants by the mid 2030s, as is proposed in the US strategy, is a fantasy.

The UK has two nuclear reactors under construction at Hinkley Point, both massively overdue and over-budget. A number of other projects announced in the early 2000s have been abandoned, leaving only the Sizewell C plant, a 3.2-gigawatt power station proposed in England.

Sizewell C was officially approved in November 2022 but financing has proved problematic. The UK government has repeatedly deferred a final decision, currently planned for early next year. Assuming a positive outcome, Sizewell C might be in operation by 2035. After that, there are no large-scale plants in the pipeline.

With no large-scale nuclear on the horizon, attention has switched to the idea of “small modular reactors”, ranging from 70 to 300MW in size. This category includes truly modular designs, built in a factory and shipped to the construction site, as well as cut-down versions of existing large reactors. A notable example is the Westinghouse AP300, which is based on the AP1000 used at Vogtle.

Although no SMRs have yet been constructed (or perhaps precisely because there have been no real-world tests of ambitious claims), advocates suggest they can be constructed in five to seven years at a lower cost per megawatt than existing large models. But in Australia, CSIRO modelling suggests power from SMRs will actually be more expensive than large nuclear – which is much more expensive than renewables firmed with storage and transmission.

There has been a recent burst of enthusiasm for the idea of using SMRs to power data centres for cloud and AI systems.

But a closer look suggests caution. Big tech giants such as Amazon, Google and Microsoft have announced plans for delivery in the early 2030s, but in each case, the proposed capacity is 1GW or less.

As a result, it’s highly unlikely they will amount to more than 5GW of new capacity over five years.

By contrast, renewables are only gaining strength. In the second half of 2024 alone, the US is expected to install more than 40 GW of utility-scale capacity, including 10GW of battery storage. China is installing renewables at truly prodigious rates, with around 330 GW installed or under way.

Doesn’t the AUKUS deal pave the way to nuclear power?

Many commentators have this week drawn a line between this nuclear announcement and AUKUS. But this contradicts previous assurances that the submarine deal was not linked to the legalisation of nuclear energy

When the nuclear submarine pact was first announced, even strong nuclear advocates moved to distinguish between nuclear subs and nuclear plants. As Liberal-National MP Ted O’Brien said in 2021, the AUKUS deal was not related to nuclear power:

They are two entirely different offerings. The nuclear-propelled submarines do not require a change in Australian law. So legally they are completely different issues for the parliament to deal with. There is no moratorium that needs to be lifted

The US and UK proposal to triple nuclear power involves a large amount of wishful thinking and very little reality.

The AUKUS pact between Australia, the US and the UK would see Australia own nuclear submarines.
Leon Neal/AP

But that doesn’t help the Albanese government much. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, whose party now has a platform of creating a domestic nuclear power industry in Australia, can fairly claim that his ideas are consistent with the announced positions of our AUKUS allies.

The government is also open to attack from the Greens and other critics of AUKUS. With a recently announced decision to store AUKUS-related nuclear waste at submarine shipyards, it’s becoming increasingly arguable that, contrary to earlier assurances, participation in AUKUS will lock Australia into the full nuclear fuel cycle, potentially including reprocessing and nuclear energy generation.

Then there’s the Trump factor. Donald Trump’s return as US President could render all these calculations irrelevant. Although Trump is strongly pro-nuclear in his rhetoric, he is likely to abandon the green industrial policy of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act which provides US government support for nuclear power. And, if the AUKUS deal begins to look troublesome, he will have no hesitation in repudiating it or demanding a renegotiation on unfavourable terms. Läs mer…