Författare: Natasha Lindstaedt Professor in the Department of Government

For Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump’s win couldn’t come soon enough. Putin may reportedly accept a deal where Moscow gains significant territory in Ukraine (about the size of the US state of Virginia) and Ukraine remains neutral and forgets about any plans to join Nato or the EU.

Though Ukraine is experiencing war fatigue, so is Russia. Russia is making steady advances in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, but the Kremlin is still struggling to recruit soldiers for the conflict. The recent revelation that North Korean soldiers were fighting in Ukraine attests to this.

Even as Russia ramps up the war, with reports from Ukraine suggesting Moscow had fired its first intercontinental ballistic missile of the war, it’s become clear that a peace deal would be in the interests of Moscow, as much as Kyiv.

According to western assessments, around 115,000 to 160,000 Russian troops have died, 90% of the personnel it had at the beginning of the war. While another 500,000 have been injured. To offset these losses, Russia has been recruiting 20,000 new soldiers a month.

Recruiting soldiers into the army has never been that easy in Russia even during peacetime. Recruits are often subject to hazing and bullying by more experienced soldiers, and as such joining the army is viewed as something to be avoided by many young Russian men. Known as dedovshchina, Russian bullying, hazing and beating of conscripts has been a notable pastime in the Russian military since the end of the 17th century.

After the Soviet Union dissolved, the Russian media exposed the appalling conditions in the military, noting that troops suffered from poor medical care and severe malnutrition. Many Russians may also remember how poorly prepared conscripts were treated who were sent off to fight the war in Chechnya in the mid-1990s.

The Russian government does not appear to be concerned about the average Russian soldier’s safety and wellbeing. Already unpopular during times of peace, this desperation to avoid being drafted into an active war becomes even more acute.

Putin appears to be threatening to use nuclear weapons over the war in Ukraine but analysis suggests he is running out of replacement troops.

The military is also seen as a major trap to catch the poor and underprivileged. Conscripts in the Russian army are viewed as meat for the grinder; their graves are ignored and the bodies are sometimes not identified.

Most of the recruits have come from far east republics with large indigenous populations such as Bashkortostan, Chechnya, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutzia) and Dagestan — or as far from Moscow as possible.

But even young men in Moscow are now facing an increasingly aggressive Russian state. Hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled the country, forcing the government to introduce a tougher draft law to round up troops.

With the new law, implemented on November 1 this year, instead of receiving a draft notice through the post, draft notices are now delivered online. Once the notice enters a Russian man’s digital mailbox, those called up are immediately barred from leaving the country and can face stiff penalties if they do attempt to leave.

This means that any time a Russian man is in contact with the government – to pay taxes, renew a passport or driver’s license, or receive any type of government service – the Russian government can contact them and automatically give them their draft card. Having an online presence in Russia — such as having a bank account or a mortgage or car loan – also makes it harder to evade the draft.

Since the start of the war, Russian men have resorted to all kinds of tactics to avoid being drafted – faking that they had a drug dependency, falsifying medical documents and even in some cases breaking their own bones.

Moving locations within Russia or purchasing property in someone else’s name was also a common tactic, but now these strategies have become more difficult. Someone I interviewed for this article was drafted even though they had not lived in Moscow since 2006. Struggling to find recruits, the Russian government has resorted to going after Russian citizens who live abroad.

Russia has also notably drafted prisoners, which include murderers and paedophiles. This has caused Russia’s prison population to plummet.

But Putin is running out of men. To attract more recruits, the ministry of defence has increased pay, making it more lucrative than civilian jobs, doubling the bonus for people enlisting in November of last year.

Relying on the North Korean military offers another solution, but North Korean troops have no combat experience, use different military tactics and most don’t speak Russian, which makes it more difficult to coordinate for specific combat operations.

Russian soldiers have complained that they do not know what to do with them. Though this would be widely unpopular in Belarus, Putin may try to force Belarus to offer support, as Belarusian soldiers are familiar with Russian tactics and operations.

In another sign of weakness, Putin is demonstrating that conventional war tactics are no longer enough. On November 19, Putin issued a threat that nuclear weapons could be used, in response to a Ukrainian attack using US made Atacms missiles in the western Bryansk region in Russia.

Usually when conventional war strategies are working, there is no need to lower the threshold for nuclear use.

Clearly, the war is not going particularly well for Ukraine either. They are struggling with their own recruitment issues and territorial losses. But it is a mistake to think that Putin is coming to the eventual negotiation table from a position of strength. Luckily for Putin, though he may be running out of men, a favourable deal may be on the horizon that fails to take this into account. Läs mer…

Almost all of Donald Trump’s nominees for critical positions within his presidential administration have been non-traditional. Fox News presenter Pete Hegseth was just named as Trump’s possible defence secretary. Alongside Elon Musk, pharmaceutical company entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has been tapped to lead a newly named Department of Government Efficiency.

With little background in border protection, South Dakota governor Kristi Noem has been nominated as the director of the Department of Homeland Security. Linda McMahon, World Wrestling Entertainment co-founder has been named Trump’s pick for secretary of commerce.

All of these people have been incredibly loyal to Trump. Few have experience of being elected and representing the public.

That makes the nomination of Florida senator Marco Rubio a little surprising. Rubio wasn’t an election denier, something that the other picks have been vocal about, and he has years of experience as a senator. Rubio also famously made fun of Trump’s hands when he was vying against him for the Republican nomination in 2016.

In Trump’s usual fashion, he responded by referring to Rubio as “Little Marco”. But these two have clearly buried the hatchet, which is unusual for Trump. Rubio ended up campaigning on behalf of Trump and became one of his biggest fans.

Read more:
How the Trump presidency might change the global economy

So what makes Rubio a surprising pick for Trump’s foreign policy leader? Rubio is seen as more of a traditional interventionist and isn’t a fan of Russia. He called Vladimir Putin a “killer”, although within the last two years, Rubio has moderated his position.

This month, Rubio said that though he supports Ukraine, the war has to end. Rubio reasoned the US was funding a stalemate and this was no longer in Ukraine or US interests. Although he added: “That doesn’t mean that we celebrate what Vladimir Putin did or are excited about it.”

However, Rubio was also one of the Republicans who voted against the Ukraine aid bill in April 2024. It is likely that Rubio will support Trump’s desire to make a deal with Russia, that would involve Ukraine capitulating and giving up significant territory.

Rubio on Nato

While Rubio has clearly changed his tune on Ukraine to align with Trump, he is not in lockstep with Trump on Nato. In fact, Rubio co-sponsored legislation alongside Democratic senator Tim Kaine, that would make it more difficult for Trump to withdraw from Nato by requiring two-thirds of the Senate to ratify withdrawal.

As Trump has notoriously been critical of Nato, this is likely to be an area of disagreement between the two, but might be seen as a hopeful sign by other Nato member nations.

Trump, however, seems to be willing to look past this because he agrees with Rubio’s hawkish approach to China and Iran. Rubio has proposed banning companies controlled by the Chinese Communist Party or the Chinese military from accessing US capital markets.

Donald Trump plans to appoint Marco Rubio as his secretary of state.

Rubio also advocated that electric cars that use Chinese technology not receive subsidies, and sponsored a law to prevent the import of Chinese products that were manufactured with forced labour.

Rubio on Iran

When it comes to Iran, Rubio sees no difference between the leadership of hardliner Iranian former president Ebrahim Raisi
and the more moderate current president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Rubio has advocated for tougher sanctions on Iran, and more pressure applied to curb the regime’s nuclear ambitions. A staunch supporter of Israel, Rubio has argued that Iran’s main goal is to make Israel unliveable.

If confirmed, Rubio would make history as the first Hispanic American secretary of state, and is fluent in Spanish. In Latin American politics, Trump has demonstrated blind faith in Rubio’s knowledge of the region.

During Trump’s first term, Rubio was certainly involved in US foreign policy towards Latin America, acting almost as a de facto secretary of state. Rubio worked to reverse the Obama administration’s softer stance on Cuba, and levy tougher sanctions against the Cuban military.

Rubio also was instrumental in cracking down on Venezuela. Rubio has made clear his position that Venezuela has become a “narco”state that cannot be negotiated with.

Rubio has clarified that all options should be on the table when dealing with Venezuela, and thus has not ruled out a military response to remove Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro from power. Though it’s unlikely that the US would invade Venezuela, Rubio will likely advocate for much harsher sanctions against the country.

So what best characterises Rubio’s foreign policy? He definitely wants to take a tough approach towards America’s adversaries, but wouldn’t advocate military invasions.

More importantly, Rubio is very transactional. He has made his peace with changing his mind on key foreign policy issues in order to be invited into Trump’s inner circle. Rubio was willing to turn his back on Ukraine in order to more closely mirror the Maga agenda, and in return will be given free rein to direct US foreign policy in Latin America and a plum secretary of state role.

While Trump’s main foreign policy agenda is to try to enforce an ”America first” agenda, where US national interests are always predominant, and be unpredictable, Rubio could bring some predictability to the role.

He might be closer in attitude to Rex Tillerson, Trump’s former secretary of state who was ousted in 2018. Tillerson claimed that Trump had almost no understanding of global events (behind closed doors Tillerson allegedly called Trump a moron). Or he might be more like former secretary of state Mike Pompeo who regularly sung Trump’s praises.

While Tillerson had no political aspirations beyond his tenure in the cabinet, Pompeo clearly did and Rubio certainly does. He might even challenge J.D. Vance for rising star status.

Though there are likely to be some tensions that will erupt between Trump and Rubio, given the dominance that Trump currently has over the Republican party, we might expect Rubio to hitch his wagon to Trump world. Once in place and in charge of international negotiations, his differences in position might become a little clearer. Läs mer…

There is nothing more dangerous than an autocrat who has managed to dupe the public into thinking that they are good at managing the economy, or are the key to maintaining security. That the Trump years saw reasonable levels of economic and job growth while inflation stayed under control, helped the public look the other way from the constant stream of warnings that Trump was the biggest threat to democracy since the civil war.

But will the US actually fall to autocracy? Full blown authoritarianism is unlikely, but the signs are clear that the US will at the very least become a hybrid regime under Trump, or a semi-autocratic regime, similar to Viktor Orbán’s Hungary.

It’s not just that the country will be led by Trump and his allies, who want to personalise power into his own hands and exercise unlimited power. It’s that he is the perfect vessel for even more nefarious actors to implement an extreme agenda, such as the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 and the American First Policy Institute (AFPI).

While Project 2025 has received more media attention, it is AFPI that is closest to the Trump team. There are more than 300 executive orders that have been drafted and are ready to be signed into action by Trump .

Expanding US power?

One of the synergies between Trump and these organisations, is that they want to greatly expand executive power. Part of this involves ensuring that every federal agency demonstrates devout loyalty to Trump. This cuts at the heart of an impartial and experienced administration.

The state will be hollowed out and increasingly more ineffective, unable or unwilling to deliver key services, like disaster aid. While this may seem harmless to some, Trump will undercut the expertise of executive agencies either by under-funding them or filling them with loyalists.

Plans are in the works to fire 50,000 career civil servants. Hundreds of important regulations that ensure that there is clean air and water, which protect citizens from corporate greed, are likely to be rolled back.

Trump has openly bragged about implementing the biggest deportation effort in US history. In order to round up over 11 million undocumented immigrants, part of Trump’s campaign promise, checkpoints will likely have to be erected to search and seize migrants.

Trump may have to rely on mobilising local police forces. More troubling is that this could spawn vigilante justice movements that take matters into their own hands, and try to round up immigrants in the name of Trump’s directive.

Trump has also claimed that the biggest threats to the US emanate not from North Korea or Russia, but from within, warning that he will use the national guard on its own people. Will the US security institutions be willing to exert force on its own citizens?

All of this has been facilitated by a pliant judiciary and legislature. The Supreme Court, one-third of which was handpicked by Trump, has already shown its true colours. It overturned Roe v Wade in 2022, threatening reproductive rights in many states and creating a health crisis for many American women. Some doctors believe it has led to a rise in maternal death rates.

Attacks on the Capitol have undermined public belief in democracy.

Then in 2024 the Supreme Court ruled that Trump is essentially immune from prosecution, so he can seemingly abuse power if he sees fit, just like a dictator.

Trump has also made clear that he will weaponise the justice system against his political opponents. He has already warned about what he will do to politicians like Democratic former house speaker, Nancy Pelosi. In total Trump has made over 100 threats to investigate and imprison his political opponents.

Dangers of opposition

The dangers of speaking out are already evident. Jeff Bezos, who founded Amazon and owns the Washington Post, refused to allow the news organisation to make presidential endorsements.

On the day of this announcement, executives from Jeff Bezos’ aerospace company, Blue Origin, met with Trump. Blue Origin and Amazon are among the companies that will now have to compete for lucrative federal government contracts.

The media is supposed to constitute the fourth estate that keeps leaders in check and serves as a watchdog. But media organisations will likely be increasingly less willing to risk their financial future by criticising Trump directly.

The US vote shows a move to the right, says the author.

Project 2025 aims to place major limits on the US media. Publicly funded news organisations such as Voice of America, NPR and PBS will likely have their funds cut, while making it easier for investigators to seize journalists emails and phone records.

Who are Trump’s key lieutenants?

This time Trump will not be surrounded by those with expertise that are willing to push back against his own worse impulses. Very few members of his former cabinet are willing to work with him again. A new Trump administration will be one where the president is increasingly isolated from those with government experience.

And although there is absolutely no evidence of fraud, Trump has sowed doubt about the legitimacy of American elections. One third of Americans did not believe that President Joe Biden was legitimately elected .

Trump then stoked anger over this so-called stolen election which led to an unprecedented siege on the Capitol, where seven people died and over 140 police officers were injured .

Attempts to generate doubt in US electoral processes has affected American political culture. While 75% of Americans believe that democracy is currently under threat, still nearly one third of Americans would actually like to live under a strongman.

Trump has certainly shattered democratic norms. Polarisation existed before Trump came on the scene, but his divisive and inflammatory rhetoric certainly did not help matters. Today fewer Americans think that the other party shares their values and goals than in the past.

Trump gave legitimacy to white supremacists repeatedly, bringing out extremists from the fringes to the mainstream. This culminated in the shameful reaction to the violent march in Charlottesville, Virginia in 2017, when he refused to condemn the neo-Nazis shouting “Jews will not replace us,” and claimed that that there were very fine people on both sides.

While many Americans were outraged, few Republicans spoke out against this. The Republican party has become remarkably pliant to Trump’s whims. That’s the concern about a Trump presidency. Who will stop him? No one in Hungary’s Fidesz party checked the power of prime minister Viktor Orbán when he began to erode media and other freedoms.

While the US will not likely become a full blown authoritarian regime, it is certainly no longer a fully functioning democracy. And America voted for it. Läs mer…