Författare: Lester Munson Non-resident fellow United States Studies Cent

Within minutes of the conclusion of this week’s presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, it became clear to many that the 81-year-old Biden may not be capable of winning the general election in November.

His inability to clearly communicate during the 90-minute debate earned harsh criticism from across the US political spectrum, most notably among Democrats.

Van Jones, a former official in the Obama administration and CNN analyst, said about Biden:

He had a test to meet tonight to restore confidence in the country and of the base, and he failed to do that.

We’re still far from our convention. And there is time for this party to figure out a different way forward.

Biden did land a few blows on his predecessor over Trump’s various personal indiscretions and the January 6 2021 insurrection on the US Capitol, saying at one point, “you’ve got the morals of an alley cat”.

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But it was not enough to persuade many sceptics that Biden is capable of fighting off the Trump campaign, not to mention performing the duties of US commander-in-chief and the hardest job in the world for another four years.

If polls over the weekend show Biden is losing support after his dreadful debate performance, which seems highly likely, the move to replace him as the Democrats’ candidate will become even more intense and, ultimately, irresistible.

How would this play out in the next few weeks?

Persuading Biden to step aside

Even with the withering criticism from his party, Biden remains in control of his fate. He won 99% of the pledged delegates in the Democratic primary process earlier this year, meaning he is entitled to the nomination. As a result, any decision to move to a different candidate starts with Biden himself.

Absent dramatic health news or his removal under the 25th amendment to the Constitution, which allows for such action by the vice president and a majority of his cabinet if the president is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office”, Biden would have to agree to step down as the party’s nominee.

We should be realistic here: Biden is a very stubborn man. You don’t get to be the president of the United States without being enormously self-confident. Biden may not be the smartest or most talented politician, but he is dogged and relentless in his ambitions.

He ran for president twice before his success in 2020. He didn’t let a brain aneurysm, plagiarism charges, familial dramas or personal tragedy stop him seeking the highest office in the land. The day after the debate with Trump, he shook his fist at a campaign event in North Carolina and asserted, “When you get knocked down, you get back up”.

Persuading Biden to step down would require collaboration with his wife, First Lady Jill Biden. “Dr Jill”, as she is known, has taken a hands-on role in managing the president’s daily life and public appearances.

There are very few Democratic Party elders who can be influential with the Bidens. The list probably starts and stops with former President Barack Obama and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. If those two go to the first lady and forcefully urge Biden’s withdrawal, it could be very difficult to resist.

Joe Biden prepares to speak as first lady Jill Biden looks on at a campaign rally after the debate.
Evan Vucci/AP

How could Biden save face?

If Biden withdraws from the race before the Democratic convention in mid-August, his delegates could then vote for a new nominee at the event. Potential nominees include Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.

Notably, except for Harris, none of these candidates has been vetted publicly during the Democratic primary process for the world’s most scrutinised job.

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If Biden were to withdraw from the race after the convention, a special meeting of the members of the Democratic National Committee would decide on the new nominee. This committee includes around 500 leading party members from all US states and territories. (Whitmer is one of three vice chairs.)

A question senior Biden confidants might be asking themselves is, which scenario offers Biden a more graceful and successful exit?

He may want to anoint a successor and he would want to choose the method that offers him the most control. That may be the convention route, where he at least can claim the allegiance of his primary delegates.

This would require an announcement in the next few weeks. The sooner the better, so as to build as much public support as possible for a new nominee. Biden could salvage a significant amount of his reputation if his handpicked successor then defeated Trump in November.

Things look grim for Democrats right now, but in the long run, they may be in a strong position. Trump is very unpopular with most Americans. The 2021 insurrection remains a massive stain on his legacy. His vote ceiling among probable voters in November is still likely below 50%.

Veteran Obama strategist David Axelrod warned Republicans after the debate:

If, for whatever reason, there’s a change at the top of the ticket, you guys are in trouble with Donald Trump. Because the guy who was up there tonight is not a guy who’s going to inspire people.

A tough and nimble Democratic candidate who can communicate clearly could be very successful in November. Läs mer…

As incumbent President Joe Biden and his Republican challenger, Donald Trump, prepare for their first debate later this week, one big question hangs over the US presidential race: who will Trump pick as his vice-presidential running mate?

There has been no shortage of speculation on this question. Will Trump choose another loyalist, nationalist type who is unlikely to expand his voter base? Or will he choose someone from the non-populist wing of the GOP in an effort to expand his extremely narrow lead over Biden?

There’s one logical choice for Trump if he wants to go this route. Whether he likes it or not, his best shot at winning could be his chief rival and critic until recently: former Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley.

Nikki Haley on the campaign trail in February during the Republican presidential primaries.
Craig Lassig/EPA

From critic to supporter

For months during the Republican primary contest, Haley had been unsparingly critical of Trump. She said, among other things, that Trump had “gotten more unstable and unhinged” since leaving office in 2021 and was “not qualified” to be president.

She also said:

He’s taking out his anger on others. He’s getting meaner and more offensive by the day. He’s trying to bully me and anyone who supports me.

Haley had been Trump’s strongest opponent in the primaries, winning contests in Vermont and Washington, DC. Notably, even after her withdrawal from the race in March, she continued to receive significant amounts of votes in states where Trump’s win was assured. These votes were seen as a protest against Trump – and a possible problem for him in the November election.

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But last month Haley changed her tune. In a speech as the new chair of the Hudson Institute, Haley announced she would vote for Trump.

She said she wanted a president who’s going to have the “backs of our allies and hold our enemies to account”, and someone who would also secure the US-Mexico border. She noted Biden had been a “catastrophe” on these issues.

Her announcement divided Republicans. Former national security adviser John Bolton, an anti-trump Republican, questioned Haley’s political calculations and whether she was angling to be his vice president. Republican strategist Sarah Longwell called her a “pathetic coward”.

Other Republicans praised the move, including David Wilkins, who served as US ambassador to Canada in the most recent Bush administration. He said: “Republicans need to be united as best we can.”

A history of sceptical Republican candidates

Haley’s pointed calls for robust American leadership role in the world – including support for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, and more open trade with like-minded, classically liberal nations – has made her the de facto leader of the internationalist (Trump supporters would say “globalist”) wing of the GOP.

This is a precarious position for someone who clearly wanted to be president. The Republican Party, when successful, has generally nominated presidential candidates who were sceptical of international entanglements.

In 1980, for instance, then-candidate Ronald Reagan ran on an agenda that included abrogating the Panama Canal treaty and questioning the newly normalised relations with China.

In 2000, George W. Bush ran against “nation building” and called for a more modest US role in world affairs.

In 2016, Trump expressed pointed opposition to the Iraq war and scepticism of the NATO alliance.

Once in office, of course, Reagan and Bush both shifted to a more internationalist approach.

Trump had more of a mixed record. He withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Iran nuclear deal and remained critical of American alliances. However, he didn’t pull the US out of NATO, as some feared, and actually improved American diplomacy in the Middle East by promoting the Abraham Accords between Israel and Arab nations.

Haley, then ambassador to the UN, sitting with Trump in the Oval Office in October 2018.
Michael Reynolds/EPA

How Haley could help

Trump can boost his campaign now by adding Haley’s internationalist credentials and voting base to his presidential ticket.

The Republicans successfully used this model in 1980 with an “America first” candidate at the top of the ticket (Reagan) and an experienced diplomatic hand (George H.W. Bush) as the vice-presidential candidate. (Both Bush and Haley are former US ambassadors to the United Nations.)

This option would, of course, depend on Trump’s willingness to invite Haley onto the ticket. Last month, Trump was more conciliatory towards his once-bitter rival, saying:

Well, I think she’s going to be on our team because we have a lot of the same ideas, the same thoughts.

While most anti-Trump Republicans will come back to the party in November when votes really count, Haley’s place on the ticket would ensure this. Her position as a possible vice president would also appeal to independent voters and perhaps even some Democrats who are upset with Biden’s performance in office.

The 2024 election is also likely to be Trump’s last campaign at the national level. If he wins, he will be a lame duck, unable to run again. (US presidents can only serve for two terms.) If he loses, he’ll be a spent political force and (likely) too old in 2028 to be a viable candidate.

So, after the 2024 election is settled, the Republican Party will begin looking to the future. Haley’s best – and probably only – chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination in 2028 is with Trump’s implicit endorsement as his running mate this year. Läs mer…