Will the UK send troops to Ukraine? The challenges facing Starmer’s plan
Plans for the UK and other European countries to send troops to Ukraine are in their very early stages. But the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, will already be thinking about how such a move could play out at home. Sending UK troops abroad, even on a “peacekeeping” mission, always has the potential to spark huge public debate.
This is the first time the government has considered deploying military forces in 11 years, when the Cameron government debated intervening in Syria alongside the US Obama administration in 2014. Since then, the UK has not seriously considered deploying troops overseas.
In the intervening years, the Chilcot inquiry found that the UK’s decision to join the invasion of Iraq was made prematurely, before all peaceful options were exhausted.
This, along with the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, may well have decreased UK public support for military interventions.
When polled in 2021, the British public were unconvinced about involvement in Afghanistan, with 53% thinking that two decades of war in Afghanistan didn’t achieve anything. Worse, 62% think that the conflict either didn’t improve the lives of ordinary Afghans, or made their lives worse.
The picture, for now, is a bit different on deploying troops to Ukraine as peacekeepers. Of those polled in mid-January, 58% either strongly or somewhat support deploying UK troops as peacekeepers. Among Labour voters, support is higher at 66%, with Tory voters (67%) and Lib Dem voters (70%) showing similar levels of support.
Reform voters show far less support (44%), potentially building more of a split between Reform and the other mainstream parties. This division may increase polarisation, and could make it even harder for Starmer to slow the rise of Reform’s challenge to Labour’s voter base.
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Starmer will draw comfort from the limited opposition to deploying peacekeepers. Only 15% of Labour voters somewhat or strongly oppose deploying UK troops as peacekeepers, below the national average of 21%.
But looking at history, we can see how changeable public support can be when it comes to war. In 2003, 54% of those polled supported the US and UK invasion of Iraq.
Despite this, there were voluble public protests against the invasion. In February 2003, an estimated 1 million people marched through London.
The 12-week initial campaign went well, so this continued level of support is not surprising. However, when people looked back at the war in 2015, only 37% thought it had been a good idea.
Only eight years later, in 2023, this had fallen further to 23%. Meanwhile one in five thought Tony Blair should be tried as a war criminal for his decision.
Starmer will need to ensure that the public understand what his government sees as the need for UK troops to serve as peacekeepers in Ukraine – and he will need to do so honestly. Much of the criticism Blair received over Iraq stemmed from accusations he wasn’t “straight” and that he “overstated” the case for UK involvement in Iraq.
Read more:
Iraq war 20 years on: the British government has never fully learned from Tony Blair’s mistakes
The Iraq inquiry report also found the military was ill-equipped at the time of the invasion. There are similar concerns now about the readiness of the British army.
Party politics and spending
Starmer will be aware of the importance of parliamentary support for military action. When Cameron sought support for military intervention in Syria, Ed Miliband as leader of the Labour Party was crucial in the vote against this deployment.
In contrast, when Blair won parliamentary support for invading Iraq, opposition from within the Labour party was so strong that Blair only won because of support from Tory MPs. Starmer will watch the responses in parliament from Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, the Lib Dems and SNP.
At the time of writing, Badenoch hasn’t commented on the idea of sending troops to Ukraine. She has, however, rejected Donald Trump’s attacks that Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky is a dictator.
Comments from former prime minister Boris Johnson that Trump accusing Ukraine of starting the war was the same as claiming that “America attacked Japan at Pearl Harbor” may help build cross-party support.
The most important challenge to Starmer’s plans could come from the Treasury rather than the Tories. Proposals reportedly involve 30,000 British and European troops.
The number of troops that the UK would contribute to this joint force is unclear. However, the cost will be the prime focus for the chancellor of the exchequer, Rachel Reeves.
Reeves has committed to increasing defence spending to 2.5% of GDP (up from 2.3%), but the timeline for this has not been set out. Starmer is under pressure to increase it even further, but any increase will be financially difficult given the state of Britain’s finances.
The UK saw significant protests against the war in Iraq in 2003.
Janine Wiedel/Shutterstock
This might help Starmer on his trip to Washington next week. Trump will be less likely to criticise Starmer if the PM can show that he is listening to Trump’s demands for Nato countries to increase their military spending.
But crucially, while increased spending to enable this deployment may improve UK-US relations, it could also make things difficult with voters, who could have to endure tax rises or further cuts to public spending.
Badenoch has said that failing to increase defence spending “is not peacemaking, it is weakness”. This suggests that the cost of intervention will be a key point of contention for the Tory leader.
Deploying UK troops to Ukraine may be a defining part of Starmer’s foreign policy. Increasing military spending and showing that the UK will help bear the cost of peacekeeping in Ukraine may also help set the tone of Starmer’s relationship with Trump.
However, politically, the consequences of deploying UK troops to Ukraine could spark numerous domestic challenges. While Labour voters appear to support the proposal now, there is likely to be opposition from at least some Reform voters – something Starmer doesn’t need more of right now. The financial costs will also put even more pressure on Labour’s spending plans, and could build division between PM and chancellor. Läs mer…