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Author: Daniel Hoyer, Senior Researcher, Historian and Complexity Scientist, University of Toronto
Original article: https://theconversation.com/is-canada-heading-down-a-path-that-has-caused-the-collapse-of-mighty-civilizations-in-the-past-254378
Canada is, by nearly any measure, a large, advanced, prosperous nation. A founding member of the G7, Canada is one of the world’s most “advanced economies,” ranking fourth in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Better Life Index, which measures things like national health outcomes, security, safety and life satisfaction.
However, all of this prosperity and ostensible stability can mask social tensions, which can simmer for years, even decades, before boiling over into widespread unrest, civil violence and even societal collapse.
Along with more than a dozen collaborators as part of the Seshat: Global History Databank project, I have spent over a decade studying the rise and fall of societies from around the globe and throughout history. This provides a unique insight to understand the challenges facing modern nations.
Our new organization, Societal Dynamics (SoDy), works to translate what we learn from observing historical patterns into lessons for today.
Even the most powerful empires can collapse
Devoting my time to studying historic crises has shown me just how fragile societies are. Even big, powerful, famous civilizations can succumb to crises.
For instance, colleagues recently published a study comparing three large, wealthy imperial powers of the past: the Roman, Han and Aztec Empires.
Historians consider these to be some of the most successful, wealthy, stable societies of the pre-modern world.
They lasted centuries, controlled vast stretches of territory, oversaw innovations in technology, politics and philosophy and produced some of the most famous works of art and architecture from history that we still talk about today — the incredible Roman Colosseum, the stunning jade carvings and other artwork of the Han period and the amazing Aztec pyramids and intricate artwork.
But not long after they reached their apex, all three of these mighty civilizations experienced devastating crises:
Rome was torn apart by civil warfare starting in the early third century CE. Ambitious military generals from the provinces marched on each other, looking to gain even more power. They were supported by legions of loyal soldiers dissatisfied with their lot in life.
Western Han imperial rule came to a crashing end in the ninth century CE when a wealthy and prominent courtier named Wang Mang led a successful coup. As in Rome, Wang rallied military leaders and officials frustrated in their ambitions. He amassed a large following of commoners weary of impoverishment by decrying the luxurious excesses of the Han court.
Aztec authority was already weakened by civil strife by the time the invading Spanish armies arrived in 1519 CE. The Aztecs ultimately proved unable to withstand the vicious warfare and disease outbreaks that accompanied the Spanish arrival.
Hidden vulnerabilities
What happened to these once-mighty empires? The aforementioned study gives some answers. The authors explored the distribution of wealth and income in these empires, comparing it to the modern United States.
They found that each of these empires permitted fairly high disparities to accumulate.
In each case, the richest five per cent and one per cent of citizens controlled an outsized share of their society’s wealth. This leads to fairly high “gini index” values as well. The gini is a commonly used measure of inequality in nations — the higher the number up to one, the more inequitable a society is. For comparison, the current average gini among OECD countries is 0.32, notably lower than each of the four societies shown above.
The researchers suggest this high level of inequality contributed to the eventual collapse of these empires.
This is consistent with our own findings on the dynamics of crisis. Inequality tends to breed frustration as impoverishment spreads.
It creates conflict as the upper classes become bloated with too many wealthy and powerful families vying for control of the vast spoils that accumulate at the top. It also erodes society’s ability to respond to acute shocks like ecological disasters or economic downturns as the government loses capacity and authority.
If allowed to persist, it becomes more and more likely for the society to end in collapse.
How does Canada compare?
Canada today bears several similarities with these and other famous civilizations of the past — and that should make Canadians nervous.
Canada, like the Romans, Han, Aztecs and many other once great societies, has maintained a relatively peaceful and secure rule over a large territory for a time. It’s generated a great deal of wealth, has facilitated the exchange of technology, ideas and movement of people over vast distances and has produced amazing works of art. But Canada has also allowed inequality to grow and linger for generations.
My group has been exploring the historic patterns of wealth creation and distribution in different countries, including Canada. We focus on what’s known as the “Palma ratio,” generally considered a more reliable measure of inequality than the gini.
The measurement quantifies the ratio of wealth or income between the richest 10 per cent and the poorest 40 per cent of citizens. Higher numbers indicate that the richest are capturing the lion’s share of a country’s overall wealth.
Canada’s economy has been growing steadily as measured by GDP per capita — with a few notable exceptions — since the Second World War.
Initially, inequality held steady, but starting in about 1980, the Palma ratio jumps up sharply. This suggests the bulk of this growth was making its way into the hands of the wealthy. After a downturn in the late 2000s, inequality has begun to grow again in recent years.
By comparison, the U.S. has experienced similar trends, though without the momentary downturn in the 2000s. Note also that these two graphs show different levels — the Palma ratio in the U.S. in 2022 (the latest available data) is about 4.5, while it’s just over two in Canada.
Heading down a dangerous path
Most citizens living in the heyday of these once mighty empires probably thought that collapse was unfathomable, just as few living in the U.S. or Canada today feel that we’re headed that way.
But there have been familiar signs growing in the U.S. in recent years. Americans appear to be further ahead on the road to a potential collapse than Canadians are, but not by that much.
Canada is starting to exhibit many of these same indicators as well, including significant spikes in social unrest evident during the COVID-19 pandemic and the increasingly hostile rhetoric we have seen among Canadian politicians. Persistent, heightened material inequality stands out as core driver in all of these cases.
Read more:
The ’freedom convoy’ protesters are a textbook case of ’aggrieved entitlement’
Canada remains, in many ways, a stable, thriving, modern democratic-socialist country. But it’s on a dangerous path.
If Canada allows inequality continue to rise unchecked as it has over the last few generations, it risks ending up where Rome, Han, the Aztecs and hundreds of other societies have been before: widespread unrest, devastating violence and even complete societal collapse.
As Canadians head to the polls, the country is at another crossroads. Will it continue down this all-too-familiar path, or will it take the opportunity to forge a different route and avoid the fate of the fallen societies of the past?
Daniel Hoyer is director of SoDy and affiliated with ASRA Network, Complexity Science Hub, Vienna, and the SocialAI lab at the University of Toronto. He has received funding from: the Tricoastal Foundation; the Institute for Economics and Peace; and the V. Kann Rasmussen Foundation.