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Author: Sam Phelps, Commissioning Editor, International Affairs
Original article: https://theconversation.com/world-affairs-briefing-world-considers-response-to-trumps-tariffs-and-israel-launches-new-gaza-offensive-253647
This article was first published in The Conversation UK’s World Affairs Briefing email newsletter. Sign up to receive weekly analysis of the latest developments in international relations, direct to your inbox.
Donald Trump has announced a massive package of trade tariffs on some of America’s largest trading partners. In a speech on the White House lawn, Trump said that America had been “looted, pillaged and raped” by these countries for decades, adding that “in many cases, the friend is worse than the foe”.
Trump claims that April 2, which he has called “liberation day”, will “forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn”. The tariffs include 20% on imports from the EU, 24% on those from Japan, 27% for India, and 34% for China. The UK got off comparatively lightly, with tariffs of 10%.
Renaud Foucart, a senior lecturer in economics at Lancaster University, explores how the world may react. In his view, there are three possible scenarios.
Read more:
How the UK and Europe could respond to Trump’s ’liberation day’ tariffs
First, countries may seek to forge trade deals with the US that, as Foucart puts it, “give Trump enough rope to climb down”. This is the approach favoured by British prime minister Keir Starmer. But it does send the message that the US can obtain concessions from its international partners by bullying them.
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Second, countries may retaliate. Whether through reciprocal tariffs or tools like the European Commission’s “anti-coercion instrument”, the goal will be to force the US to back down. If this scenario plays out, new modelling by Niven Winchester of Auckland University of Technology suggests it is probably the US that stands to lose the most, while some countries may actually gain.
Read more:
New modelling reveals full impact of Trump’s ’Liberation Day’ tariffs – with the US hit hardest
Third, in what is the most dramatic scenario, we may see a reorganisation of the world order that more or less avoids the US. This would take the world to uncharted economic and political territories.
A renewed offensive
Meanwhile, Israeli officials have announced a major expansion of military operations in Gaza. In a statement released on Wednesday, Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz, said that “troops will move to clear areas of terrorists and infrastructure, and seize extensive territory that will be added to the state of Israel’s security areas”.
The country’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, later confirmed the plans. In a video message, he announced that Israel would be building a new security corridor called the “Morag Route” to “divide up” the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu says carving Gaza will add pressure on Hamas to return the remaining 59 hostages.
We spoke to Scott Lucas, a Middle East expert at University College Dublin and a regular contributor to our coverage of the war in Gaza, about Israel’s renewed offensive and some of the other key issues involved.
In his view, the resumption of the ground offensive in Gaza was largely inevitable once Netanyahu’s government refused to move from phase one of the ceasefire to phase two. The second phase would have involved the establishment of a permanent ceasefire and a complete Israeli military withdrawal. This, as Lucas explains, was never going to be agreed by Netanyahu.
“Beyond his personal opposition to the requisite Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza, powerful hard-right ministers in his government had made clear that their acceptance of phase one was conditioned on no phase two and on a return to military operations,” Lucas writes. Netanyahu’s political survival depends on the continuation of the war.
Read more:
Why is Israel expanding its offensive in Gaza and what does it mean for the Middle East? Expert Q&A
But according to Leonie Fleischmann, a senior lecturer in international politics at City St George’s, University of London, the decision to launch another ground offensive in Gaza remains a high-risk strategy.
Netanyahu is already unpopular among many Israeli citizens, as is the continued assault on Gaza. And his recent attempts to bend Israel’s legal system to his will by pushing through a law that would give the government the power to appoint new members of the supreme court have certainly not endeared him to many.
The move has the potential to undermine the country’s system of checks and balances which, as in many western democracies, rests largely on the separation of powers. But in Fleischmann’s view, it was not unexpected.
Netanyahu has done anything he can to try to gain control of the country’s judiciary over the past few years. He was charged with bribery, fraud and breach of trust in 2019, which he denies, and has consistently sought to delay legal proceedings.
It remains to be seen whether pressure from the Israeli public can check Netanyahu’s power. Widespread unrest over the weekend caused Netanyahu to pause plans for judicial reform, though he has maintained that the overhaul is still needed.
Elsewhere, we have reported on the recent endorsement of Trump’s policies by Aleksandr Dugin, who is sometimes referred to as “Putin’s brain” because of his ideological influence on Russian politics.
“Trumpists and the followers of Trump will understand much better what Russia is, who Putin is and the motivations of our politics,” Dugin said in an interview with CNN on March 30.
His endorsement should be a warning of the disruptive nature of the Trump White House, says Kevin Riehle of Brunel University of London.
Read more:
’Putin’s brain’: Aleksandr Dugin, the Russian ultra-nationalist who has endorsed Donald Trump
And China may be making preparations for an invasion of Taiwan. As naval history expert Matthew Heaslip of the University of Portsmouth reports, a handful of so-called Shuiqiao barges were filmed at a beach in China’s Guangdong province in March.
The barges, the name of which translates to “water bridge”, were working together to form a relocatable bridge to enable the transfer of vehicles, supplies and people between ship and shore.
Heaslip points out that, as there is no obvious commercial role for such large vessels, the most likely purpose is for landing armed forces during amphibious operations. But, as he reassures in this piece, their appearance does not guarantee that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is imminent.
Read more:
What these new landing barges can tell us about China’s plans to invade Taiwan
There are reported to be three completed prototype landing barges ready for deployment and three under construction. This would offer just one or two beach bridges, which would be of minimal value in a major invasion.
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