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Original article: https://theconversation.com/colombias-fragile-peace-process-in-danger-as-guerrilla-violence-rises-252582
Colombia has experienced an upsurge in political and criminal violence over the past few months. In late February, the National Liberation Army (ELN) leftist guerrilla insurgent group carried out four bombings in Cúcuta, a city on the border with Venezuela. Several people were left injured by the attacks, and 1,200 soldiers were subsequently deployed across the city.
Then, in early March, dissidents from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Farc) Marxist-Leninist rebel group captured 29 members of the security forces in the Cauca region, including a police lieutenant colonel and an army major. The renegade faction expressed anger at government efforts to eradicate 8,000 hectares of coca in the area.
Colombia’s fragile peace process, in which the government has sought to bring the country’s multiple armed groups to the negotiating table, looks to be in danger. Some leftist insurgent groups remain active, while drug cartels and offshoots of Colombia’s former right-wing paramilitaries, such as the Clan del Golfo, continue to expand their influence.
Colombia suffered Latin America’s longest-running insurgency. In the 1960s, Farc emerged with the goal of overthrowing the Colombian state and establishing a communist government.
It wasn’t until the late 1990s, when the drug trade emerged as a funding source, that the Farc insurgency became a serious threat to Colombia’s government. Farc took over large parts of rural Colombia, forcing state control to retreat to the urban centres of regional towns and cities. By 2001, Farc was operating in the periphery of Colombia’s capital, Bogotá.
At the same time, the Colombian security forces also battled other left-wing insurgent forces. These included the 19th of April Movement (M-19), the Popular Liberation Army (EPL) and the ELN, which is now Colombia’s largest active guerrilla insurgent group.
In response to the revolutionary Marxist threat, anti-insurgent paramilitaries coalesced under the banner of the United Self-Defense Forces. These paramilitary groups both collaborated and conflicted with the state, before the vast majority disbanded through a government demobilisation programme between 2002 and 2006.
It is estimated that the decades-long armed conflict in Colombia resulted in the deaths of over a quarter of a million people, with many more injured and displaced from their homes. Tens of thousands are still missing.
The insurgency was officially brought to an end in 2016, when the Colombian government signed a peace agreement with Farc. The group was to be demobilised, victims of the conflict would receive justice, and the government promised significant investment in rural areas previously under Farc control.
It also guaranteed seats for former Farc rebels in the Colombian Senate and House of Representatives for two terms, starting in 2018. In its new incarnation as a political party, Farc would then have to secure seats through engaging in elections.
Despite the peace agreement and demobilisation programmes, there are a variety of armed groups across Colombia still intent on collapsing the peace process. The ELN, for example, has rejected every peace deal since its inception in 1964.
It continues to carry out attacks and seeks to control territory throughout Colombia, particularly in regions where the drug trade proliferates. In 2019, the ELN carried out a suicide car bombing at the General Santander National Police Academy in Bogotá, killing 21 people as police cadets readied for their graduation ceremony.
Several Farc fronts also rejected the 2016 peace agreement and formed their own dissident factions, including the so-called Central General Staff and the Segunda Marquetalia. Farc dissidents and the ELN have clashed over the years, but have both used neighbouring Venezuela as a launch pad to conduct attacks into Colombia.
Demobilised Farc combatants face assassinations and threats from dissident rebel factions who view former militants that are now pro-peace as traitors. These threats may encourage some demobilised groups to rearm in the future.
Alongside the growing insurgent threat, Colombia’s security forces are also dealing with neo-paramilitary factions which are, like the remaining dissident guerrillas, heavily involved in drug trafficking.
Groups such as the Clan del Golfo seek to generate wealth and power through criminality while also attacking rebel groups such as the ELN and Farc dissidents. These neo-paramilitary groups have an estimated membership of 6,000 volunteers spread throughout Colombia.
Establishing ‘total peace’
Following the 2022 election of Colombia’s president, Gustavo Petro, a new peace strategy was announced that was designed to disarm and demobilise the remaining leftist insurgents, neo-paramilitary factions and organised crime cartels. Petro, himself a former M-19 guerrilla and the country’s first leftist president, sought to use his plan for “total peace” to end Colombia’s remaining violent campaigns.
It was hoped that peace talks between Petro’s government and rebel factions may have produced better outcomes than previous attempts due to Petro’s left-wing politics and his history as a rebel combatant in the 1980s. However, attempts at establishing peace have repeatedly collapsed.
The decision by the US president, Donald Trump, to cut foreign aid to Colombia has also heightened fears that groups such as the ELN will benefit as a result. The funding that has been slashed primarily focused on helping communities living in poverty and isolation as well as supporting anti-gang and pro-peace programmes.
Government initiatives to secure peace continue to stall. But community organisations at a regional and local level have achieved success in transitioning demobilised combatants back into civilian life.
Groups such as the Medellín-based Peace Classrooms Foundation have used the experiences of former paramilitary members and rebels to warn of the dangers of violence. These groups may hold the key to addressing some of the social injustices that encourage dissent and violence in Colombia.
The continued violence in Colombia should remind anyone with an interest in wanting peace to succeed that the internal armed conflict is far from settled.
Dale Pankhurst does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
