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Author: Lukas Slothuus, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, School of Global Studies, University of Sussex
Original article: https://theconversation.com/greenlands-fossil-fuel-ban-is-up-in-the-air-after-recent-election-252071
US president Donald Trump thrust Greenland to the centre of global politics when he proposed to buy the vast, icebound island at the start of the year. With the world watching, Greenlandic voters went to the polls on March 11 2025 and delivered a landslide victory for a party that told Trump, “We are not for sale.”
Greenland is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark and its struggle for independence is a major political battleground. Both the right-wing Demokraatit (Democrats), now the largest party, and the socialist Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA) that they recently decimated are pro-independence. However, they also want a slower independence process than the populist-nationalist Naleraq, which also did well in the election.
While foreign observers may have had their attention drawn to Greenland by Trump, they shouldn’t look away now. The outcome of this election has made a fossil-fuelled future for Greenland more likely, just when the escalating climate crisis demands an urgent global transition to renewable energy.
Crucial to Greenland’s future is its base of economic production. Greenland is estimated to have some of the world’s largest untapped oil and gas resources.
According to the US Geological Survey, the basin off Greenland’s east coast alone contains 31 billion barrels of oil equivalent and west Greenland about half of that. If this was all recoverable, Greenland could become one of the world’s largest fossil fuel producers.
But these fossil fuels are extremely difficult to extract. The unwelcoming terrain – a vast ice sheet on land, icebergs at sea – led successive fossil fuel companies to give up their hunt for oil and gas. At the moment, Greenland’s fossil fuels simply are not technically and commercially viable to get out of the ground.
Against this backdrop, IA passed a ban on all fossil fuel exploration and extraction when it came to power after the 2021 election. It was justified by the negative impacts a fossil fuel industry would have on the country’s fragile environment and the global climate, as well as domestic fisheries, which total 98% of Greenland’s export value.
The ban fits within a global movement to cut not just the use of fossil fuels, but also their supply. The rationale is that extraction of fossil fuels must end to stop them from further increasing climate change. After the ban, Greenland joined a group of like-minded countries known as the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, which have all implemented similar legislation.
Other members include Costa Rica, France and Sweden. Most impressive is Denmark – the first significant oil and gas producer to commit to a phaseout of fossil fuel production, albeit by the late year of 2050. Nevertheless, global efforts to end fossil fuel supply continue to gain pace, even if major producers like the US are going in the opposite direction.
No oil until after independence
Oil was not a major theme in the 2025 election campaign. Indeed, a new party proposing an independent Greenland energised by fossil fuel extraction called Qulleq (literally “oil”, a reference to Inuit oil lamps) failed to win a single seat in the 31-seat parliament, the Inatsisartut.
EPA-EFE/Mads Claus Rasmussen
Despite Qulleq’s failure, the dramatically remade political landscape will allow significant changes to the future of fossil fuel production. Five of six parties support reconsidering the fossil fuel ban, with only IA maintaining strong opposition. More than ever before, oil must be understood in relation to the prevailing independence sentiment.
Greenland’s resources are not owned by Denmark. This ended with legislation in 2009 and 2020 which granted the Greenlandic state full control of the territory’s subsurface. However, as Denmark continues to pay an annual block grant to support the Greenlandic economy, currently around €600 million (£503 million), Denmark is entitled to half of any profits from natural resources up to the block grant value.
Based on pre-election statements by the parties, there will be no parliamentary majority to begin oil exploration, let alone extraction, for now. Naleraq and the centre-left Siumut are both open to pumping oil, but only once Greenland is able to retain 100% of the revenues, which means once the Danish block grant is abolished following independence.
Faced with the difficult prospect of building a post-colonial nation, fossil fuels are a tempting but dangerous way to secure the economic foundation of an independent Greenland. Yet, in the long shadow of Denmark’s colonial role, only the people of Greenland can determine the future of the world’s largest island.
What happens to Greenland’s oil and gas will have major implications not just for the Greenlandic people, but for the rest of the world. As one of the places most vulnerable to the consequences of the climate crisis, Greenland is already feeling the effects of a fossil-fuelled world. If the new government chooses to use extraction as its path to political and economic independence, it will have a devastating impact on the entire planet.
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