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Original article: https://theconversation.com/analysis-bolsonaros-political-persecution-narrative-will-be-lulas-biggest-problem-250378
The indictment filed by the attorney general’s office on Tuesday February 18 against Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro and 33 other people is the country’s most eagerly awaited – and most important – political event of recent months. The document doesn’t really contain any new elements: almost all of the facts presented were already included in the indictment filed by the federal police in November last year.
There are two major developments. The first is Bolsonaro’s accountability for a process of democratic subversion, which lasted until the events of January 8, 2023. It all began in 2021, as soon as the supreme court overturned convictions against former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and paved the way for his return to the electoral game.
The decision in favour of Lula led Bolsonaro to adopt, according to the complaint, “a growing tone of rupture with institutional normality”. Since then, the president, his allies and supporters have begun to question the legitimacy of the Supreme Court (based on the slogan “Supreme is the people”), as well as the suitability of the electronic ballot boxes.
Anti-democratic narratives were inspired by Trump slogans
In both cases, the anti-democratic narratives were inspired by Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign slogans, such as “stop the steal” and “big lie”. Emulating Trumpism has been an inseparable part of Bolsonaro’s political strategy since his 2018 presidential campaign.
The second new development concerns the characterisation, as a coup attempt, of a set of decisions and plans that don’t fit the classic model of institutional rupture. Since Brazil’s republican political history has been marked by coups d’état, a common strategy in Jair Bolsonaro’s defence is based on the idea that if there was no attempt to put tanks on the streets or close down congress, there was no intention to break up democracy.
In his 272-page report, Paulo Gonet argues that a contemporary coup can happen by other means. In the Brazilian case, the attempt was marked by the overt use of disinformation mechanisms, often by the president himself and members of the government, to promote distrust in institutions and the electoral process, produce social instability and ensure that Bolsonaro remained in power, even after being defeated at the polls.
But the complaint goes further. It wasn’t just an attempt to undermine democracy with widely disseminated narratives and attacks on supporters on social media. In the words of the attorney general, among the objectives of the criminal organisation set up for the coup were to carry out “kidnappings, arrests and killings” in order to guarantee control of the three branches of government and the re-establishment of law and order.
High-ranking officers were part of anti-democratic plan
The report says according to the coup plan, called “Green and Yellow Dagger”, members of the army special forces would assassinate the supreme court justice, Alexandre de Moraes, as well as the winners of the 2022 election, Lula da Silva and his vice-president, Geraldo Alckmin. The plan had already been known for a few months, but Gonet brings elements to support the case that Jair Bolsonaro was not only aware of these steps, but that he agreed to them.
The accusations against the former president also shed light on the role of the military in the coup plot. Officers of all ranks, starting with members of the president’s inner circle, such as Admiral Almir Garnier and Generals Augusto Heleno, Paulo Sérgio Nogueira and Walter Braga Netto, were integral parts of the anti-democratic planning.
Not surprisingly, of the 34 people indicted, 24 are military. The coup attempt was the conclusion of an accelerated process of militarisation of Brazilian politics, which began under the presidency of Michel Temer in April 2016. In four years, the number of active military personnel serving in the executive branch rose from 1834 to 2558. At the height of this process, in 2020, eight of the Bolsonaro government’s 22 ministries were occupied by military personnel.
Bolsonaro continues to deny all the accusations and is trying to stay alive politically. And the complaint puts Bolsonaro in the position of being politically persecuted. Victimisation is one of the far right’s most popular strategies, as it allows them to project themselves, in the name of the people, against an empty and frightening enemy (the “system”).
Although Gonet was very careful in drafting his complaint as an exclusively legal piece, Bolsonaro – in congress and on the networks – was quick to denounce an alleged persecution against “the greatest political leader Brazil has ever seen”. In other words, the tension against political institutions is in full swing.
Bolsonarismo remains the main opposition force
The accusation also has the potential to inflame Bolsonaro’s supporters, with possible electoral consequences. The next national election in Brazil is a year and a half away and Bolsonaro remains the main opposition force. Figures such as former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro and the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, are projected as candidates for the 2026 presidential race.
Faced with a weak government, whose popularity has fallen from 35 per cent to 24 per cent since December, a Bolsonarism unified by the narrative of persecution will be a major problem for Lula. This narrative will be tested in mid-March, when national demonstrations have been called against the current government – and in favour of Bolsonaro.
Finally, we must monitor how the White House responds to political events in Brazil. We know that pressure from the Biden administration was crucial in preventing the coup d’état from materialising in 2022. Trump and his allies, such as Elon Musk and Marco Rubio, are open critics of Lula and the decisions of the supreme court.
It’s unlikely that the Trump administration, a month after taking office, will treat the Brazilian political situation as a priority. But the road to 2026 will be long and tortuous, and challenges to democracy can come from both inside and outside the country.