Date:
Author: Gracia Abad Quintanal, Profesora Agregada de Relaciones Internacionales, Universidad Nebrija
Original article: https://theconversation.com/us-china-tensions-are-an-opportunity-the-eu-could-become-the-worlds-third-great-power-248924
In the early 1990s, as the Cold War faded into memory, the Maastricht Treaty established the existence of the European Union (EU). Since its inception, the bloc has jostled for position in an international order increasingly structured around three poles: the United States, Asia and Europe.
Today, three decades after its founding, it is struggling to assert itself as a geopolitical actor on a global stage where strongman leadership and great powers – predominantly the United States (US), the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and, to a lesser extent, Russia – are enjoying renewed prominence.
Donald Trump’s re-election has brought with it the threat of global trade war, with metaphorical shots already fired at Mexico, Canada and China. As similar threats are made against the EU, the bloc is faced with questions of where it fits in the global order, and whether it should pick a side or forge its own path.
Read more:
The EU was built for another age – here’s how it must adapt to survive
Pre-existing tensions
The EU’s relationship with China has not been free of tension in recent years. There are longstanding disagreements over the bloc’s trade deficit with China, its arms embargo, and the protection of human rights. More recently, these have been compounded by Chinese sanctions on European companies, the involvement of high-ranking Chinese officials in repression in Xinjiang, the destabilising threat of China’s digital renminbi currency, the COVID pandemic, and Beijing’s position on the war in Ukraine.
Times are also tough for US-EU relations. After the Biden administration’s relatively friendly stance towards the EU, signs are already emerging of a renewal of the tensions that characterised transatlantic relations during the first Trump administration.
President Trump has accused Europe’s NATO members of not contributing sufficiently to the alliance – these grievances even featured in his election campaign. Europeans will therefore fear a weakened US commitment to their security, a fear undoubtedly shared by US allies in Asia, such as Japan and South Korea.
Read more:
Nato: why the prospect of Trump 2.0 is putting such intense pressure on the western alliance
Tensions also extend into the economic and commercial realms. Trump has said the EU is “out of line” and “an atrocity” in its trade relation with the US, and has vowed to impose steep tariffs on imports from the EU. The European Commission has been quick to protest these announcements, explaining that it would respond in kind.
US-China volatility
Relations between the US and China are also fraught, as Trump’s second administration begins in a panorama of much greater tension with the PRC than his first. This follows years of strategic decoupling, accusations of threatening each other’s national security – including the infamous 2023 spy balloon incident – and Washington’s efforts to curb possible Chinese meddling or interference.
It seems too early to anticipate the evolution of this relationship over the coming four years. What is clear is that the Trump administration’s initial approach to China has thus far been ambiguous and confusing.
On one hand, Trump restored US access to Chinese-owned social media platform TikTok shortly after it was disabled by the Biden administration. On the other, it has already imposed tariffs on Chinese products, although these have been more limited than those imposed (albeit with a month’s grace) on Canada and Mexico, countries with whom, in principle, the US should have a more fluid relationship.
The EU: a third global power?
In the current geopolitical climate, the European Union has only one real option: maintaining its own approach to international affairs, and not aligning itself with either the US or China. To do this, it will have to strengthen its defence and technology capabilities, cultivate and develop its own geopolitical character, and shore up its strategic autonomy.
With regard to the PRC, the EU can and should continue to develop its derisking strategy, while also differentiating itself, as it has always done, from the US, thus presenting itself as a potentially friendly partner where needed.
With regard to the US, the EU must continue to emphasise the two powers’ shared values, while at the same time trying to re-balance the relationship and reduce dependence, especially in matters of defence.
Undoubtedly, this new era of strongman politics does not bode well for the EU, a values-based power that has made defence of international rules its hallmark. However, it may also present an opportunity for the EU to become stronger, to develop the autonomy and resilience on which it has insisted in recent years, and to emerge as a more complete and respected power on the international stage.