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Author: Kevin Budning, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, National Security, Carleton University
Original article: https://theconversation.com/trumps-gaza-threat-shows-the-middle-east-is-both-safer-and-more-turbulent-post-war-247868
United States President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the U.S. will take over war-torn Gaza and create a “Riviera of the Middle East” has been immediately condemned by the international community, including American allies and adversaries alike.
His threats come just two weeks into the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, and risk undermining the regional diplomatic efforts that made the ceasefire deal possible.
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Trump wants the US to ’take over’ Gaza and relocate the people. Is this legal?
Structured in three phases, the ceasefire agreement involves the exchange of Israeli hostages for some Palestinian prisoners; the withdrawal of Israeli forces along the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors; and the return of vital humanitarian assistance needed to rebuild a war-torn Gaza — not to “clean it out,” as Trump has proposed.
In the post-war landscape — and amid Trump’s threats as he stood next to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House — Israel now likely finds itself in a paradoxical situation: both better and worse off.
On the one hand, Israel is more secure than ever before. It has leveraged the shock of the Oct. 7 attacks to reshape the regional balance of power, demonstrating military strength and restoring deterrence.
On the other hand, Israel’s relentless bombardment of Gaza, its unwillingness to yield to public pressure and its perceived disregard for international law and the rules-based order have isolated the country, arguably turning it into a pariah on the world stage.
(AP Photo/Mohammad Abu Samra)
Capitalizing on catastrophe
Historically, Israel has implemented a counter-insurgency strategy known as “mowing the grass,” designed to weaken its adversaries through limited targeted military campaigns that deliberately stop short of full destruction.
The strategy never intended to address the root causes of the conflict. Rather, it focused on preventing Hamas from launching large-scale, credible attacks against Israel.
Oct. 7 was precisely what “mowing the grass” sought to obviate. The security lapse, however, inadvertently created ripe conditions for Israel to justify — even for a limited time — a much larger and more destructive campaign against Palestinian militant groups. A window had emerged, and Israel seized it.
Israel’s ground and aerial campaign over the past 15 months has significantly weakened the group, although, as demonstrated by a recent show of force, it has not been eliminated.
The Israeli military’s control over key border points, the destruction of tunnels used to carry out attacks and smuggle weapons and the targeted killings of political leaders may make it difficult for Hamas to inflict similar levels of carnage again any time soon.
(AP Photo/Victor R. Caivano)
Hezbollah in the north
Like in Gaza, the Israeli government used Hezbollah’s relentless rocket attacks to justify a separate military campaign deep into Lebanese territory.
In the span of a few weeks, the offensive reportedly killed more than 4,000 Hezbollah fighters, destroyed key weapon caches and critical infrastructure and pushed the group north of the Litani River, approximately 30 kilometres from the Israeli border.
Israel further shocked the world when it simultaneously detonated pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah militants. This was followed by a string of targeted killings that included Hezbollah’s long-time leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and his then-successor, Hashem Safieddine.
The decapitation of the Hezbollah’s chain of command, combined with its failure to mount an effective counteroffensive, revealed that the group is far weaker than projected. This, in turn, forced Hezbollah to make significant concessions and capitulate to a ceasefire agreement that worked against its interests.
(AP Photo/Maya Alleruzzo)
The wider region
The Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen also entered the conflict by seizing Israeli and western-owned ships and launching a series of drone and missile attacks toward Israel.
But Israel responded with greater force, showcasing its ability to conduct large-scale missile, drone and aerial strikes thousands of kilometres away in Yemen.
Read more:
Western strikes against Houthis risk igniting a powderkeg in the Middle East
And for the first time, Israel and Iran engaged in direct tit-for-tat escalatory exchanges, sparking fears of an all-out regional war. Israel’s defence systems, backed by allies and neighbouring countries, successfully thwarted hundreds of Iranian missiles.
Israel’s response successfully bypassed Iran’s anti-missile defence systems, sending a decisive message of military superiority. Israel also demonstrated its intelligence advantage by assassinating Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran while he was residing at a compound secured by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The collapse of Syria’s Assad regime also created a power vacuum, prompting Israel to conduct hundreds of airstrikes aimed at destroying weapons abandoned by the Syrian army, surface-to-air defence missile systems and to seize strategic territory close to its border.
Israel’s increasing presence within Syria and dominance over the airspace now makes it considerably easier to intercept the supply chain between Iran and Hezbollah.
(AP Photo/Mosa’ab Elshamy
All for a cost
Israel’s push to deter its adversaries and restore its standing as the regional powerhouse, however, has come at a high price: its reputation.
Diplomatically, some of Israel’s closest allies, including Canada, France and the United Kingdom, have either banned or restricted arms sales to Israel.
The once-universal support for Israel in the U.S. from both the Republican and Democratic parties became considerably strained. The United Nations General Assembly also voted overwhelmingly for the Security Council to consider admitting Palestine as the 194th member — a move viewed by Israel as a reward for Oct. 7.
Israel also faces a public relations crisis at the International Criminal Court, where it is currently on trial for allegedly violating the Genocide Convention in relation to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Likewise, the court issued a warrant for Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant for “intentionally depriving Gazans of food and directing attacks against civilians.”
The ripple effects of Israel’s actions have spilled overseas, affecting much of the world, and especially the younger generations’ public opinion of the conflict.
In the U.S., for example, a Pew Research Report found that Americans under 30 are considerably more likely to sympathize with Palestinians than Israelis. The results are similar in Canada, with youth between the ages of 18 and 24 reporting support for Hamas over Israel by a two-to-one margin.
(Christine Tannous/St. Louis Post-Dispatch via AP)
Is Israel more or less secure?
While Israel’s response to Iran and the “axis of resistance” have positioned the country into a safer, more militarily dominant position than before the war, the consequences of this strategy may be short-lived.
The images from Gaza — the loss of civilian life, displaced families, and starving children with no viable prospect of a future — have shifted public opinion against Israel. This has frayed diplomatic relations with once-dependable allies — although apparently not the U.S — upended the wider Middle East peace process, and fuelled a resurgence of antisemitism, especially on college campuses, not seen since before the Holocaust.
But most of all, Israel’s response to Oct. 7 may unintentionally serve as the most powerful recruitment tool for future cycles of Palestinian violence. To many, especially the youth around the world, it is possible that future violence may come to be viewed as a legitimate form of resistance.
And if that is the case, coupled with the unlikely prospect of Israel permanently deterring Iran and its proxies and with an American president who is in favour of relocating Gaza’s entire population and taking over the territory, Israel could find itself in a more precarious situation than ever before.