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Author: Thomas Klassen, Professor, School of Public Policy and Administration, York University, Canada
Original article: https://theconversation.com/what-does-trump-have-in-store-for-the-world-in-his-second-term-history-provides-some-clues-244616
Donald Trump is on the eve of becoming only the second United States president to begin a non-consecutive term. Grover Cleveland, more than a century ago, was the other.
Non-consecutive terms have occurred in other countries, particularly in Western Europe and the Americas.
Around the time that Cleveland entered American history books, William Gladstone kept movers busy in London with four non-consecutive terms as British prime minister.
More recently, Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi was in power on three separate occasions over several decades. Brazil’s current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — known as Lula — was in power for two terms. After spending more than a year in jail for corruption, he was elected again in 2022.
(AP Photo/Sarah Meyssonnier)
Some countries ban second acts altogether. Mexico’s presidents get one term of six years. In France, the president is prevented from running for a third consecutive term, but may return after sitting out a term. That has not yet been accomplished but the incumbent, Emmanuel Macron, may give it a try.
Trump limited to two terms in total
The U.S. Constitution was amended in the 1950s so that “no person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice.” This came about after Franklin D. Roosevelt won four consecutive elections. There will be no third act for Trump unless he’s able to somehow amend the American Constitution during his four years in office.
The history of presidents and prime ministers who have secured non-consecutive terms provides clues to what Trump’s second term might look like.
(AP Photo/Library of Congress)
Cleveland’s second term was not as successful as his first. He took strong stances on economic and social problems that were opposed by most Americans, including his own party, and were not in keeping with changes in American society. The economy entered a deep recession as Cleveland was unwilling to try new policies.
He departed office deeply unpopular with Americans and with his party, the Democrats, in tatters. The Republicans claimed victory in the next four presidential elections.
Winston Churchill, British prime minister from 1940 to 1945 and again from 1951 to 1955, is another example of a leader whose second term was far less remarkable than the first. After an impressive first term as a wartime leader in the 1940s, Churchill was ill-suited in the 1950s to dismantle the British Empire and respond to the domestic economy.
In Canada, Pierre Elliott Trudeau was in office for more than a decade before being defeated, but then returned for another term in office. However, beyond important changes to Canada’s Constitution, his final term was less successful than his earlier years in office. Economic troubles plagued the government along with ill-advised responses to the global energy crisis that fostered alienation in western Canada.
The late Berlusconi’s third and final term in office was consumed by sex scandals, corruption and tax-fraud charges, and by a plummeting economy that was followed by a national debt crisis.
(AP Photo/Pier Paolo Cito)
Trump’s next term
Trump won re-election by promising Americans a brighter economic future. That promise may be the most difficult to keep if or when the next recession arrives, and Trump himself is now acknowledging bringing down grocery prices will be “very hard.”
(AP Photo/Eraldo Peres)
In Brazil, Lula moved quickly once back in office to place seasoned administrators and people he trusts in positions of power. He was also aggressive in using presidential decrees to reverse his predecessor’s policies.
Trump’s cabinet choices were loyal to him during the past eight years, both while he was in power and after he lost the 2020 election. He’s already signalled that presidential executive orders will be signed his first day in office, including one that will impose the large-scale deportation of people living in the country illegally.
But, unlike Lula’s choices, his picks aren’t all seasoned administrators, especially political novices and mavericks Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who Trump has tasked with jointly heading up a commission to cut government spending.
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History reveals that such commissions quickly fade as the private sector executives suddenly in government positions realize that fundamental shifts in public administration take many years to accomplish, require approval from Congress and will be far less grand than envisioned.
Leaders who return to power generally know from experience how quickly time and events move. Most do all they can to be more prepared than they were during their first time in the halls of power, and place value on discipline and focus. Trump’s 2024 election campaign, for example, was largely disciplined, with no turnover of key staff.
No encores on the horizon
A common feature of second — or third or fourth — acts is that those leaders are typically older than most elected officials. Gladstone left office at age 84 and Churchill at age 80.
Lula will be 81 when he completes his third term. Trump will be the oldest president in U.S. history at his inauguration. He will be 82 at the end of his term.
These politicians know their political lives no longer measured in decades, but only in years. There are no encores.
If history is an accurate guide, Trump’s second administration will involve hardened ideological positions. His recent comments about annexing different parts of the world — including Canada, Panama and Greenland — reveal a leader still consumed with causing disruption and disturbance.
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Indeed, history shows that those who return to power pursue policies very similar to those during their first terms. Second acts have been marred by leaders who are unable, or unwilling, to adjust to unexpected developments in the domestic, economic or global arenas.